Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[PMBangers]

see how he goes more inside

Should've been there Saturday, ruck rover all game

 

[Knightmare]

Can you stop saying Lukosious is a key position player. He is as much a KPP as Jordan Ridley imho

Lukosius is being asked to play wing currently, but he can play KPP. He's ultimately someone who can play where you ask him to play. Be it defence (general or key), forward (general or key) or wing. He's not limited like Ridley is to playing the one role/position (albeit to an All-Australian standard).

Lukosius is one of the new breed of talls who can kill teams from a number of different positions. Nik Cox for Essendon is looking like he can be another of a similar variety. They're tall utilities who can play KPP, they just don't have to.

From the previous generation Jack Watts could do similar things, but was a toned down, less damaging version who really never developed the confidence in his game. Had he have, and he could have been a really good footballer and perhaps the first of his type given his skills, athleticism, how well he read the game and versatility at that height.

Should've been there Saturday, ruck rover all game

I figured based on his production he would have played inside, but I'm not loving a 1:2 contested:uncontested ratio if he played inside. 10cp is solid, but I'd like more from him given how extremely low that ratio is when he plays outside.

I was more interested in the interstate teams rather than watching a depleted Sandringham. The two QLD sides, Tasmania and NT were on my radar, aside from my SANFL watching on the weekend.

Sadly without any NAB League replay function and the games not on YouTube this year watching every game isn't realistic, so it's just about prioritising and making sure you see enough of everyone. Otherwise there are several other games I would have watched.

 

[PMBangers]

I figured based on his production he would have played inside, but I'm not loving a 1:2 contested:uncontested ratio if he played inside. 10cp is solid, but I'd like more from him given how extremely low that ratio is when he plays outside.

He wasn't shirking contested situations though, just had far more burst and positional awareness than opponents to get the ball before anyone could contest, also had the likes of McKay, Mansfield and Salmon in there that specialise in contested work

 

[Knightmare]

He wasn't shirking contested situations though, just had far more burst and positional awareness than opponents to get the ball before anyone could contest, also had the likes of McKay, Mansfield and Salmon in there that specialise in contested work

Positive signs it sounds like. For mine if he makes it at AFL level, that's where it will be because he has that rare agility and evasion in traffic as his gifts. The better the contested side of his game, the better, and the further it will take him.

 

[Dockeroo]

Lukosius is being asked to play wing currently, but he can play KPP. He's ultimately someone who can play where you ask him to play. Be it defence (general or key), forward (general or key) or wing. He's not limited like Ridley is to playing the one role/position (albeit to an All-Australian standard).

Lukosius is one of the new breed of talls who can kill teams from a number of different positions. Nik Cox for Essendon is looking like he can be another of a similar variety. They're tall utilities who can play KPP, they just don't have to.

From the previous generation Jack Watts could do similar things, but was a toned down, less damaging version who really never developed the confidence in his game. Had he have, and he could have been a really good footballer and perhaps the first of his type given his skills, athleticism, how well he read the game and versatility at that height.

Enjoy your opinions here KM and I think Lukocius is a decent player but I reckon the praise you are giving him is way over the top. Granted he is at Gold coast who have made stunting talent an art form in the last decade of their existence but still.
I see a guy who is a very good field kick and reads the game well. There’s plenty others in the league who can do that too though.
He doesn’t have that mongrel aggression that the truly great players all have. Or I haven’t seen it anyway the 8 or 10 games I’ve watched him. He’s a bit, I don’t know “timid” maybe?
Comparing him to Jack Watts is hardly a compliment either!
I would suggest that Sam Walsh, Ben & Max King, Bailey Smith and Zak Butters would all comfortably be picked ahead of him in a redraft of 2018 at this stage...

 

[Knightmare]

Enjoy your opinions here KM and I think Lukocius is a decent player but I reckon the praise you are giving him is way over the top. Granted he is at Gold coast who have made stunting talent an art form in the last decade of their existence but still.
I see a guy who is a very good field kick and reads the game well. There’s plenty others in the league who can do that too though.
He doesn’t have that mongrel aggression that the truly great players all have. Or I haven’t seen it anyway the 8 or 10 games I’ve watched him. He’s a bit, I don’t know “timid” maybe?
Comparing him to Jack Watts is hardly a compliment either!
I would suggest that Sam Walsh, Ben & Max King, Bailey Smith and Zak Butters would all comfortably be picked ahead of him in a redraft of 2018 at this stage...

The contributions of Jack Watts I view as underrated. He was no star, but a good piece who I felt added value and across a number of positions. As I said before, he was the first of a really unique style of player and one I expect we'll see more of. And I'd want a few of on my team.

I'm still a big fan of Lukosius. He's on track per 22 games to have a 178 mark season (=6th in the comp for marks as things stand) and from a wing he's 5th in the competition for metres gained, and his metres gained I'd consider as valuable as anyone's given his I'd argue best in the competition standard kick and vision. He's a third year tall and is having an unbelievable season. And this is after transitioning from playing in defence the 18 months prior.

There is plenty Lukosius will need to improve. As you say, he's not aggressive and would benefit from winning more of his own ball and further developing his contested marking into more of a weapon. If he can push forward and start getting more of the ball forward of centre he'd further enhance his value. For me the key is his endurance and work rate keep developing and if he can become a 200+ mark per season and competition leader in metres gained, they're the keys I look at because the more he gets it, the more he'll kill teams with his ball use. With those other areas gravy if he can develop them.

I wouldn't say anyone from 2018 is 'comfortably' ahead of Lukosius. I don't see any of that group comfortable ahead of any other. I view that as an even group of six and if I could have any of those two, I'd prefer that over any one individual of those.

 

[Dockeroo]

The contributions of Jack Watts I view as underrated. He was no star, but a good piece who I felt added value and across a number of positions. As I said before, he was the first of a really unique style of player and one I expect we'll see more of. And I'd want a few of on my team.

I'm still a big fan of Lukosius. He's on track per 22 games to have a 178 mark season (=6th in the comp for marks as things stand) and from a wing he's 5th in the competition for metres gained, and his metres gained I'd consider as valuable as anyone's given his I'd argue best in the competition standard kick and vision. He's a third year tall and is having an unbelievable season. And this is after transitioning from playing in defence the 18 months prior.

There is plenty Lukosius will need to improve. As you say, he's not aggressive and would benefit from winning more of his own ball and further developing his contested marking into more of a weapon. If he can push forward and start getting more of the ball forward of centre he'd further enhance his value. For me the key is his endurance and work rate keep developing and if he can become a 200+ mark per season and competition leader in metres gained, they're the keys I look at because the more he gets it, the more he'll kill teams with his ball use. With those other areas gravy if he can develop them.

I wouldn't say anyone from 2018 is 'comfortably' ahead of Lukosius. I don't see any of that group comfortable ahead of any other. I view that as an even group of six and if I could have any of those two, I'd prefer that over any one individual of those.

Thanks for the reply. Speaking of that 2018 draft, what do you make of Rozee and Rankine? Seem to have lost a bit of sparkle in recent times though injury to Rozee hasn’t helped. Still very talented. Were they taken a tad high in hindsight? Rankine as a small forward was selected very high wasnt he? Assume they think he will be a midfielder in time

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the reply. Speaking of that 2018 draft, what do you make of Rozee and Rankine? Seem to have lost a bit of sparkle in recent times though injury to Rozee hasn’t helped. Still very talented. Were they taken a tad high in hindsight? Rankine as a small forward was selected very high wasnt he? Assume they think he will be a midfielder in time

Injury has impacted Rozee this year and I don't think he'll be himself this year. Assuming he can get himself fully right next year, and that's the condition for him, he can get back to playing some very good footy.

Rankine I've found disappointing in his lack of development and I was expecting further steps this year, but he has regressed from where he was at last year where I felt like he was one of the competition's better and more damaging small forwards. I don't have context behind why Rankine isn't having a great year other than knowing what I'm seeing isn't the standard of football I'd expect from him.

I'd like to have both boys in that category with that top group, but they don't belong there. Both could, Rankine is an incredible talent, but isn't playing that standard of football while Rozee has shown enough in the past where if he puts his foot and any other injury issues behind him, he'll be back to impacting games in a big way.

 

[Chioli]

The draft after the first five does open up somewhat, so there should be some element of variation on opinion. eg. my third round choice in the Bigfooty NAB League break phantom draft I rate inside the top-10 in this year's pool. So those kinds of things will happen this year.

I just can't say on the two games I've seen of Draper so far this year that I'd be prepared to spend a first round choice on him. For me he's worth an early to mid second at this stage, which has slowly been a drop away as others have emerged on my board.



My view is changing as we go and as I see more. Depth could be around average this year (could be around 30 deep, which is an upgrade from the 25-30 I was thinking a couple of weeks back), it's the top end, and even the first round that doesn't have me particularly excited this year. I feel like I could have a late pick and find some guys who are better than others who will be taken in the first round. I just don't have that attachment to a lot of those earlier draft names I normally would by this point, or some others just outside of those first few I feel like can be stars.

I don't see any need for Geelong to trade into the first round this year. I'd be perfectly comfortable picking a few guys in the second round, or using some combination of those picks in trades if required to get someone who will fill a pressing list need (eg. an established ruck).

even though as it stands the cats will have picks 28 and 31 which after Daicos, Darcy and maybe Burgoyne could be 31 and 34?

 

[briztoon]

even though as it stands the cats will have picks 28 and 31 which after Daicos, Darcy and maybe Burgoyne could be 31 and 34?

That only matters if you want those picks for their points value to match a bid on an academy.

 

[Knightmare]

even though as it stands the cats will have picks 28 and 31 which after Daicos, Darcy and maybe Burgoyne could be 31 and 34?

Depends on how things move around and which picks are used to match bids. Clubs will trade up/down including those who will have players to bid on.

You've listed the f/s players, but there will be academy guys who will attract bids in or before that range. Fahey (GWS). Mac Andrew if he doesn't attract a top-20 bid can be matched by Melbourne. For those who read my weekly wrap this week, Bodhi Uwland I flat out loved for Gold Coast on the weekend. So you'll have a few of them also. I'll be checking out the NSW boys next after watching the QLDers on the weekend, and there could be 1-3 from NSW I may also really like the look of, will have to see when I see them.

This isn't a draft I'd suggest any particular attachment to is required. If you find someone you really like, get a pick that will get them, but Geelong may be able to find some mature agers and find some types with later picks if unconvinced by those juniors available at their picks.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on mid-season draft prospect Jackson Callow: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ckson-callow-frame-mid-season-draft-selection

 

[Harry O]

Should've been there Saturday, ruck rover all game

It is an interesting one with Callaghan. While he currently stands 190 and 90 and is probably still growing, this is the first footy season he has played at anywhere around that height.
sure he captained the Vic schoolboys team as a 12 year old but he has had a massive growth spurt in last 12-18 months so there is probably excellent scope for improvement as he learns to best utilise his new found size and power.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Hi Knightmare,

Brisbane's recruiting manager has stated on the club podcast that Brisbane are looking to take the best player available regardless of need in the MSD, and likely a younger player who isn't expected to make a contribution at senior level anytime soon. Who do you see as best available around that spot?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

Brisbane's recruiting manager has stated on the club podcast that Brisbane are looking to take the best player available regardless of need in the MSD, and likely a younger player who isn't expected to make a contribution at senior level anytime soon. Who do you see as best available around that spot?

Depends on who is there.

Could Jackson Callow slide? Moyle?

More realistically: Bailey Lambert, Tyrone Thorne, Angus Baker and Jack Avery are some others I like and would recommend. Lambert for a general forward, Thorne for a small fwd/mid. Baker/Avery for general defenders with Avery the younger and Baker the more proven if you want more immediate help in defence.

 

[Polo342]

Hey Knightmare

Im just wondering who you see Fremantle selecting if they take a midseason pic. Would Jackson Callow make it that far?

 

[DaKids]

KM - interested to know your thoughts on Arlo Draper and where you see him going in this draft?

Many thanks

 

[briztoon]

Depends on who is there.

Could Jackson Callow slide? Moyle?

More realistically: Bailey Lambert, Tyrone Thorne, Angus Baker and Jack Avery are some others I like and would recommend. Lambert for a general forward, Thorne for a small fwd/mid. Baker/Avery for general defenders with Avery the younger and Baker the more proven if you want more immediate help in defence.

Has Bailey Lambert declared?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Has Bailey Lambert declared?

In the MSD discussion thread, people are saying he hasn't. The rest of the names KM posted are still valid though.

 

[weltschmerz]

You mentioned Jackson Callow as a potential convert to the back line, how do you think he'd hold up against AFL key forwards?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare

Im just wondering who you see Fremantle selecting if they take a midseason pic. Would Jackson Callow make it that far?

I don't know yet who will take Callow. If teams are paying attention, someone will take him early. Hawthorn, Collingwood, St Kilda and Gold Coast all would benefit from adding him and should based on their list needs be considering him closely.

In the MSD discussion thread, people are saying he hasn't. The rest of the names KM posted are still valid though.

Surprising hearing Lambert hasn't declared. He has been playing really good footy and is AFL ready. I can think of several front halves he could slip straight into.

Any link with the complete list of names being circulated? Yet to see a complete list.

KM - interested to know your thoughts on Arlo Draper and where you see him going in this draft?

Many thanks

Draper I view as a possible late first or second round pick. He's worth a top-30 pick. Athletic, good skills, has some versatility with mid/fwd capabilities. Still thin and has some physical development left. Can win his own ball. So he has some capabilities.

You mentioned Jackson Callow as a potential convert to the back line, how do you think he'd hold up against AFL key forwards?

I don't think he'd have any problems. I think by position in the AFL ranks he could be one of the standouts in fact. 1v1 I think he'd be worrying opposition key forwards more than they'd be worrying him. Put him in a pack situation and he'll take his share of contested intercept marks. And he'll be picking and choosing the right moments to peel off and intercept. If you can intercept and win your 1v1s, that's all you need to be a good key defender at AFL level. I wouldn't put it past him to become one of the competition's best key defenders if he made that transition, as he brings to the table each of the elements I look for. Even by foot he's a really good kick. Hits his targets, places his kicks smartly, has great vision. Ticks all around.

Athleticism/quickness I don't consider a prerequisite to be a great key defender and would class only as a nice to have.

 

[mustang]

Moyle would go in the national draft. He'd go second round for mine and I think he's thoroughly deserving. On my board in my power rankings, he keeps rising and he was top-40 a few weeks ago but I'm comfortable upgrading him to top-30.

Callow is my guy. Loved him last year, loved his play in 2019 and in these past two rounds I've fallen harder in love with his game. He'd be again in the mix this year to get picked but due to being a less athletic type more likely second half of draft. In this year's draft, I'm not seeing 10 footballers better than him. Other than some hardcore Tasmanian football fans, or perhaps someone who has watched a lot of Norwood this year, I imagine I'll be on my own making that call, but Callow is an absolute beast. He's a terrific key forward already. I think he could play at AFL level right now. He does all the little things you look for. Unselfish. Brings the ball to ground. Crashes packs. He impact games consistently and he exerts his influence really at a higher frequency than anyone under the age of 19. And as a key defender, while he hasn't played there this year, just seeing how he tracks the ball, has those big hands and such a strong contested mark, how he uses his body 1v1 and protects the drop zone. I feel like with Callow I'm watching a young Brian Lake if he were a key forward. If he doesn't make it as a key forward, he can be a monster of a key defender and for me he's a high conviction pick. You'll find no bigger fan among the junior talent watchers I'm confident saying. If I'm reviewing my power rankings, after those past two games, he's top-10 in my own power rankings.

KM,

With Hawthorn looking at Moyle for the second pick in the mid season draft after North taken Edwards still think Callow would be better for North seeing they have no forwards as would love to get Edwards to be picked by the Hawks. But with Moyle how do you think he will go partnering Hawks ruckman young Ned Reeves who played his first game on the weekend are they the same kind of player or both different style of ruckman.

Can Moyle play forward in the Hale type role with Reeves being the number 1 ruckman.

 

[Knightmare]

KM,

With Hawthorn looking at Moyle for the second pick in the mid season draft after North taken Edwards still think Callow would be better for North seeing they have no forwards as would love to get Edwards to be picked by the Hawks. But with Moyle how do you think he will go partnering Hawks ruckman young Ned Reeves who played his first game on the weekend are they the same kind of player or both different style of ruckman.

Can Moyle play forward in the Hale type role with Reeves being the number 1 ruckman.

Reeves is progressing and has developed a long way considering how extremely far back he was when drafted. He's definitely best suited to playing as a number one ruckman with his height and tap work his advantage.

Moyle in Collingwood's VFL side was forced to share the ruck duties with either Max Lynch or Mason Cox. I don't love him forward. He looks developable as a ruckman, but as with Reeves, I class him as a ruckman or nothing. You're drafting him with the intention of developing him into a genuine number one ruckman. He's 205cm and really competitive through there. That's his game and what he does well. Forward craft is nothing special and would have to improve tremendously. Even if Moyle develops some as a forward, it would be the equivalent in a Hawthorn context to having a Ceglar forward. It's not how to maximise his usage and not ideal for a number two ruck role. Hawthorn should for that role be able to do better.

 

[briztoon]

In the MSD discussion thread, people are saying he hasn't. The rest of the names KM posted are still valid though.

I know that.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I know that.

Then why are you asking?