Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

KM, I know you're a fan, but do you see Sonsie sliding into the teens at this rate?

His play has been erratic, so it may be possible if he has more performances like his game on the weekend. I'm hoping he rebounds from that and that was just a one off poor game, but it's not the first time this year he has gone missing, so I'll be continuing to assess with an open mind.

 

[PMBangers]

Ahead of Sonsie/Roberts/Sinn/Rachele? Yikes.

I'd want to see his attack on the ball and tackling to improve before I'd be that daring.

Would be curious with your thoughts on Callaghan v Sinn, Rachele and Sonsie for specific strengths and weaknesses

 

[Knightmare]

Would be curious with your thoughts on Callaghan v Sinn, Rachele and Sonsie for specific strengths and weaknesses

I'll be going into strengths and weaknesses for my next power rankings update. And I'll add to these.

But very quickly though for the most pronounced strengths and weaknesses I'm seeing from what I've seen to date:

Callaghan
Major strength: Evasion+agility+movement through traffic
Major weaknesses: Hard ball winning+tackling

Sinn:
Major strengths: Speed+agility+evasion+drive from defence
Major weaknesses: Production+accumulation

Rachele:
Major strengths: Skills on both sides+vision+kicks to i50 targets+first possession winning at stoppages
Major weaknesses: Struggles finding easy outside ball

Sonsie:
Major strengths: Skills+kicks to i50 targets+acceleration+contested ball winning
Major weaknesses: Consistency (not only game to game, but quarter to quarter)

 

[Blackhawk42]

Ahead of Sonsie/Roberts/Sinn/Rachele? Yikes.

I'd want to see his attack on the ball and tackling to improve before I'd be that daring.

There isn't a clear guy who stands out, but for me it's a bit early having Callaghan quite that high, flawed as all the others are also.

Sonsie I may have to reconsider after his poor game on the weekend, but probably Roberts for me at least of that group I'd be comfortable picking as a high floor type who should be a good mid/fwd pretty immediately.

Like the look of Sonsie too, but a few attributes of Callaghan are things we are desperately crying out for. Early days of course. Plenty of things could change yet.

 

[daniel23]

I don't see it with Rachele, I'd feel much more comfortable picking Erasmus early as that half forward mid. What makes you view Rachele as the better player ?

 

[Knightmare]

I don't see it with Rachele, I'd feel much more comfortable picking Erasmus early as that half forward mid. What makes you view Rachele as the better player ?

I like the rate of improvement Erasmus has shown, and having the late year birthday is a bonus, whereas with Rachele he was good even in 2019.

That said, I'd definitely go Rachele over Erasmus. Rachele for me is a borderline top-5 pick and may after Daicos be that next most advanced in terms of what he can produce today.

The most striking difference between the two is what they do by foot. Erasmus lacks consistency by foot v Rachele who is best in class as a dual sided kick who lace out hits his i50 targets.

I also see a stark difference in what they can do at stoppages. A few weeks ago now there was a game where Rachele was injected into the centre bounces, and centre bounce after centre bounce he was reading the ruck taps and winning first possession. Rachele while he has played mostly forward I have among the very best few stoppage players in this year's pool.

 

[bird_man]

His play has been erratic, so it may be possible if he has more performances like his game on the weekend. I'm hoping he rebounds from that and that was just a one off poor game, but it's not the first time this year he has gone missing, so I'll be continuing to assess with an open mind.

Didnt he injure his knee on the weekend?

 

[PMBangers]

Didnt he injure his knee on the weekend?

Bone bruising after getting legged even

 

[bird_man]

Bone bruising after getting legged even

What qtr did it happen do you know?

Was it a reason for his low stats game?

 

[PMBangers]

What qtr did it happen do you know?

Was it a reason for his low stats game?

Happened right in front of me in the 4th, probably about 5 minutes in

 

[Knightmare]

My Mid-Season AFL All-Australian team:

 

[mustang]

Daicos has become a clear cut #1. He'll attract a bid of pick 1 and have his bid matched.

The only player I see maybe catching/contending with Horne for the #2 spot is Sam Darcy (son of Luke as a WBD F/S).

This isn't a draft I'd suggest moving up. It's looking similar to 2017 where there could be some underwhelming choices and misses early on. There is a distinct lack of top end quality comparative to what I've seen in years past, particularly out of Victoria.

Horne and Cerra I view as being of comparable value to give you a feel with Daicos relatively more valuable, at least based on my own talent evaluation. As Horne would essentially require pick 1 to secure (would become pick 2 once Daicos bid is matched), Cerra would be the less expensive and more realistic target as he is essentially a distressed asset - wanting out and to return to Victoria.

Why is this Knightmare’s because of Covid lockdown or it’s really just not great year for the draft.

 

[Knightmare]

Why is this Knightmare’s because of Covid lockdown or it’s really just not great year for the draft.

The missed year for Victoria last year definitely hurt. The other factor that has impacted the Victorians was the lack of preseason and lack of coaching with how budget the program has become - with the coaches of each club this year needing to coach not only the boys, but also the girls, and with the girls seasons starting earlier. Then we just had that month or so break where less games have taken place than normally would be the case with the lockdowns, as well as a general planned break in the season. So it's all in combination really hurting the Victorians and impeding on their progress, just as we saw really with the crop drafted last year, though this year's group to an even greater extent are getting impacted.

I don't know what others are thinking regarding the strength of this draft and there may for all I know be some contrasting views, and I'm happy for others to share their thoughts on this year's draft also, but it's not impressing me at all and is a draft I wouldn't be in the least bit bothered having early draft involvement in. There will still be some value picks late which good talent ID can pick up, but smart clubs would spend more time this year scouting rival lists and perhaps to a lesser extent the state leagues, as that's where for mine there is relative to the average year where there are I'd argue better than usual opportunities.

Some states have good talent this year and it's not doom and gloom everywhere. South Australia in particular actually has a good group this year with more depth of good numbers than normal as well as some good top end options. The problem of course is with the bulk of the prospects coming out of Victoria each year, if Victoria is heavily impacted, that's never good news for the draft more broadly.

WA has some numbers, but nothing that should go top-10, and certainly wouldn't in a better draft. And the Div 2 states/territories (NSW/QLD/TAS/NT/ACT) relatively aren't as strong as some of the better recent years either.

 

[Usayed Givashe]

North aren’t bidding on Daicos, he is half as good as Horne.

 

[Chris25]

North aren’t bidding on Daicos, he is half as good as Horne.

That’s a bit unfair. Daicos would be like 75% as good as Horne.

 

[danielG]

North aren’t bidding on Daicos, he is half as good as Horne.

Why do North supporters defend Horne like he is a North Player?
I find it quite bizarre. He might not even end up at the Kangaroos. Kangaroos win this week and their supporters have to hope they lose 8 straight.. That's a big tank job for a team that has to build a winning culture & I'm not even sure they're that bad...GC on the other hand is the sleeping giant for the spoon and Horne. I sort of hope that's where he ends up...he seems like a player that might actually make a difference at GC.
As an aside, a question for KM; what is your motivation for putting so much time into your posting on here? Is it to generate interest in your podcasting ? Are you paid by ESPN for your time on here ?
I really appreciate the effort you put in on here, but am at times confused why you are so forthcoming with your information & time you invest on your Bigfooty posting, replying in such considered fashion to every question regardless of how many times its been asked.

 

[Knightmare]

North aren’t bidding on Daicos, he is half as good as Horne.

Doesn't sound like you've seen Daicos if that's your view.

The separation Daicos has with every passing game to me at least is obvious when looking at his ball winning, being the go-to guy around the ground at every moment with every play seemingly going through him, what he's doing in traffic, how he is setting up shots on goal and how he's hitting the scoreboard. I'd also say of Daicos whether he's through the midfield (inside or outside), up forward or in defence, he's on a level where he'd outperform Horne who doesn't in any part of the ground have an edge.

Horne is distinctly better in regards to his tackling and the pressure he applies to the ball carrier, but beyond that, there isn't a secondary area he has a distinct edge on Daicos.

I wouldn't be complaining if North Melbourne if they have pick one straight up take Horne. Just means Collingwood require less points to match bids, but as much as I wanted that to be the case early on, I just can't deny what I'm seeing. Daicos is a clear #1 at this time.

As an aside, a question for KM; what is your motivation for putting so much time into your posting on here? Is it to generate interest in your podcasting ? Are you paid by ESPN for your time on here ?
I really appreciate the effort you put in on here, but am at times confused why you are so forthcoming with your information & time you invest on your Bigfooty posting, replying in such considered fashion to every question regardless of how many times its been asked.

ESPN don't pay me for the time I spend on bigfooty. Nor on Twitter or YouTube. I'm paid per article published on ESPN. Perhaps I should set up a donation link for those who wish to support my work if you think there would be people on here interested in helping me cover my expenses and support my work?

I've posted on bigfooty since 2009 and keep coming back I imagine like most others on here because I enjoy engaging with the community. It's all collectively for me a passion project and labour of love and a mix of activities I hope to continue for as long as I can until family commitments one day force a reduction in commitments.

My mindset differs to most in society. Earning the highest dollar or getting paid for everything I do isn't what drives me. I'm only interested in taking on paid or voluntary work for that matter, if it's something I'm passionate about and feel has a worthwhile purpose on a level where I'd do it even if I wasn't paid. I learnt that lesson very early on in entering the workforce that that's how I want to live my life. I'd much rather live modestly and invest smart with the few dollars left over I have at the end of each month and have that in the long run one day get to a point where it can later in life cover all my expenses and be that ticket to financial freedom to enable ongoing that continued opportunity to keep doing all the things I'm passionate about and enjoy most.

Before signing my contract each year, I confirm with ESPN on their end as a condition of employment that I can continue posting on Bigfooty, Twitter and YouTube. Doing so is only of benefit to ESPN as it will at the end of the day mean more views/clicks/promotion and be a value add for them, so there has never been any pushback as a result which is great and the best result for both parties.

Until ESPN approached, I'd never actually considered monetising my interest in the AFL/list management, but loving ESPN's brand and following their NBA coverage, it's something I wanted to be a part of and since starting my writing for ESPN and having the freedom and flexibility to watch the games that interest me, it's actually allowed me to realise that I'd much rather be writing for ESPN and talking footy on here than being in clubland and being made to run around to venue after venue of a weekend and lose that opportunity to maintain the generalist view I have. Being able to watch not only the NAB League, but also the AFL, VFL, SANFL and WAFL in the quantities that suit me, that's really appealing to me as I enjoy being across everything more than I do specialising in one thing.

 

[Chris25]

Doesn't sound like you've seen Daicos if that's your view.

The separation Daicos has with every passing game to me at least is obvious when looking at his ball winning, being the go-to guy around the ground at every moment with every play seemingly going through him, what he's doing in traffic, how he is setting up shots on goal and how he's hitting the scoreboard. I'd also say of Daicos whether he's through the midfield (inside or outside), up forward or in defence, he's on a level where he'd outperform Horne who doesn't in any part of the ground have an edge.

Horne is distinctly better in regards to his tackling and the pressure he applies to the ball carrier, but beyond that, there isn't a secondary area he has a distinct edge on Daicos.

If you're questioning how much of Daicos he's seen, I'd be questioning how much you've seen of Horne.

Tackling, strength, impact per possession, overhead marking. All areas I'd have him clearly ahead of Daicos. I'd give Horne the edge in his clearance work as well as being a more dangerous forward. Horne also wins in the all important potential category - the key separation between the two. Daicos has the advantage on the stat sheet, is a better distributor and would make the better half back.

Daicos is dominating a fairly average NAB League and is a deserving #2. Put Horne in the same competition and I don't think it's a question.

 

[Knightmare]

If you're questioning how much of Daicos he's seen, I'd be questioning how much you've seen of Horne.

Tackling, strength, impact per possession, overhead marking. All areas I'd have him clearly ahead of Daicos. I'd give Horne the edge in his clearance work as well as being a more dangerous forward. Horne also wins in the all important potential category - the key separation between the two. Daicos has the advantage on the stat sheet, is a better distributor and would make the better half back.

Daicos is dominating a fairly average NAB League and is a deserving #2. Put Horne in the same competition and I don't think it's a question.

I've seen 6 games of Horne's this year. I've actually seen more of Horne than I have Daicos to this point given how few games have been played.

Horne is as already mentioned the stronger tackler. He is stronger at this point with Daicos still light, though maybe that works in Daicos' favour having more scope to develop physically. Overhead marking and I'd even add aerial work I'd give to Horne, albeit he hasn't used those weapons as much as I'd like this year in the games I've seen.

Impact per possession I'd give the edge to Horne also, though barely and with no meaningful separation with his impact offensively only moderate and not high. Whereas Daicos, and it's clutching at straws does have more empty possessions relatively just due to the sheer quantity of outside ball he gets.

Clearance work I definitely disagree. Daicos' inside work is the better of the pair. I like Horne as a ground ball winner, but Daicos still gets more of it inside and is a lot better with it, with how evasive and classy he is with ball in hand.

Forward of centre I've also got Daicos. Whether it's hitting i50 targets or hitting the scoreboard himself, his work at ground level. He has Horne covered. Horne as mentioned already is the greater threat overhead and brings that forward pressure,

I've actually moved into a category now where not only do I have Daicos in a category of his own at #1 this year, but I actually view Horne as more closely comparable to Matthew Roberts who I don't view as all that far behind on current standard of play, and Sam Darcy is someone if he keeps improving and impressing I may also move ahead of Horne.

What has frustrated me every game this year with Horne is every time I go watch him, I want to be able to write some glowing rave review and talk about him like one of the best players on the ground and have him as my focus player of the week, but that hasn't happened in any of the six games I've watched so far. He brings the pressure and tackling every week. But otherwise he's more than anything a component who fits in, in the SANFL, but by no stretch of the imagination dominates, with a couple of quiet games mixed in where he struggled to find the footy. I'll keep watching Horne and I'm open to my point of view moving back towards a more favourable evaluation of Horne, but this is my position at the current time as I'm seeing it.

 

[Chris25]

Horne's performances at U18 level last year were as good, if not better, than what Daicos is doing.

Daicos will always finish with a better stat sheet. But it's the difference between being an All Australian and a Brownlow contender. Horne has that next level that Daicos doesn't.

 

[danielG]

Doesn't sound like you've seen Daicos if that's your view.

The separation Daicos has with every passing game to me at least is obvious when looking at his ball winning, being the go-to guy around the ground at every moment with every play seemingly going through him, what he's doing in traffic, how he is setting up shots on goal and how he's hitting the scoreboard. I'd also say of Daicos whether he's through the midfield (inside or outside), up forward or in defence, he's on a level where he'd outperform Horne who doesn't in any part of the ground have an edge.

Horne is distinctly better in regards to his tackling and the pressure he applies to the ball carrier, but beyond that, there isn't a secondary area he has a distinct edge on Daicos.

I wouldn't be complaining if North Melbourne if they have pick one straight up take Horne. Just means Collingwood require less points to match bids, but as much as I wanted that to be the case early on, I just can't deny what I'm seeing. Daicos is a clear #1 at this time.



ESPN don't pay me for the time I spend on bigfooty. Nor on Twitter or YouTube. I'm paid per article published on ESPN. Perhaps I should set up a donation link for those who wish to support my work if you think there would be people on here interested in helping me cover my expenses and support my work?

I've posted on bigfooty since 2009 and keep coming back I imagine like most others on here because I enjoy engaging with the community. It's all collectively for me a passion project and labour of love and a mix of activities I hope to continue for as long as I can until family commitments one day force a reduction in commitments.

My mindset differs to most in society. Earning the highest dollar or getting paid for everything I do isn't what drives me. I'm only interested in taking on paid or voluntary work for that matter, if it's something I'm passionate about and feel has a worthwhile purpose on a level where I'd do it even if I wasn't paid. I learnt that lesson very early on in entering the workforce that that's how I want to live my life. I'd much rather live modestly and invest smart with the few dollars left over I have at the end of each month and have that in the long run one day get to a point where it can later in life cover all my expenses and be that ticket to financial freedom to enable ongoing that continued opportunity to keep doing all the things I'm passionate about and enjoy most.

Before signing my contract each year, I confirm with ESPN on their end as a condition of employment that I can continue posting on Bigfooty, Twitter and YouTube. Doing so is only of benefit to ESPN as it will at the end of the day mean more views/clicks/promotion and be a value add for them, so there has never been any pushback as a result which is great and the best result for both parties.

Until ESPN approached, I'd never actually considered monetising my interest in the AFL/list management, but loving ESPN's brand and following their NBA coverage, it's something I wanted to be a part of and since starting my writing for ESPN and having the freedom and flexibility to watch the games that interest me, it's actually allowed me to realise that I'd much rather be writing for ESPN and talking footy on here than being in clubland and being made to run around to venue after venue of a weekend and lose that opportunity to maintain the generalist view I have. Being able to watch not only the NAB League, but also the AFL, VFL, SANFL and WAFL in the quantities that suit me, that's really appealing to me as I enjoy being across everything more than I do specialising in one thing.

Good response KM, and good to know your motivations.
I enjoy your views and your writing. I don't agree with some of your takes but you have your views and stick by them.
It is, in majority a good community, the BigFooty community. I respect you because there are people that throw a bit of sh1t your way (maybe you come across a bit arrogant from their perspective) but you never get defensive and sook it up and continue to respond to everyone in a respectful manner. I rate that.
The donation idea is interesting...It's fair for you to want to make some token earnings to cover your time given you are paid in other football vocations but I think people see BF as a freebie and wouldn't be in a hurry to break from that and would worry that its one step away from BF being on subscription which I think has never embraced in the journalistic world and unlikely to get far on here.
Anyways...back to football matters... I'm looking forward to seeing Sinn back this week for Sandy...I'm hoping he launches into a big back half of the season and gives the top part of the draft a deeper look...

 

[Knightmare]

Horne's performances at U18 level last year were as good, if not better, than what Daicos is doing.

Daicos will always finish with a better stat sheet. But it's the difference between being an All Australian and a Brownlow contender. Horne has that next level that Daicos doesn't.

The SA U18s isn't the NAB League. South Australia as a state don't produce half the talent the NAB League do, and you get a lot of the better talent playing League/Reserves by the end of the year anyway.

NAB League I completely agree with your earlier thoughts is very weak this year, the weakest I've seen. But it's still the stronger competition.

Our positions on Daicos are pretty similar. I feel he can be a multi time All-Australian. I don't think he'll ever be the best in the competition, but he could be a top-10, maybe top-5 midfielder in his prime if things go right.

Horne I see as more likely to be around that top 20-30 range of midfielders. He could make an All-Australian team but I'm not optimistic he'll become a Brownlow Medalist or anywhere close.

Good response KM, and good to know your motivations.
I enjoy your views and your writing. I don't agree with some of your takes but you have your views and stick by them.
It is, in majority a good community, the BigFooty community. I respect you because there are people that throw a bit of sh1t your way (maybe you come across a bit arrogant from their perspective) but you never get defensive and sook it up and continue to respond to everyone in a respectful manner. I rate that.
The donation idea is interesting...It's fair for you to want to make some token earnings to cover your time given you are paid in other football vocations but I think people see BF as a freebie and wouldn't be in a hurry to break from that and would worry that its one step away from BF being on subscription which I think has never embraced in the journalistic world and unlikely to get far on here.
Anyways...back to football matters... I'm looking forward to seeing Sinn back this week for Sandy...I'm hoping he launches into a big back half of the season and gives the top part of the draft a deeper look...

I'm with you re. paywall kind of content. I don't engage with it and that's something I have no plans of going in the direction of either on a personal level. I'm here for the discussion and to talk football first with a view to engage with as many people as possible and build up the community.

What I've never liked from a media perspective is all the 'issue' focused stories. I'm all about football analysis and I think for the health and continued interest in the game we need more of that which only adds to my motivation to push my content and help further connect the football community.

I'm looking forward to seeing more of Sinn. If he can push to become Victoria's #2 player, that would be a great result and helpful for the strength of this draft. He looks good in defence and has some Lachie Ash, though seems possibly to have some more midfield capabilities with the contested side to his game seeming slightly better, so they're the kind of things I'll be looking for with him with interest.

 

[Mutineer]

If you're questioning how much of Daicos he's seen, I'd be questioning how much you've seen of Horne.

Tackling, strength, impact per possession, overhead marking. All areas I'd have him clearly ahead of Daicos. I'd give Horne the edge in his clearance work as well as being a more dangerous forward. Horne also wins in the all important potential category - the key separation between the two. Daicos has the advantage on the stat sheet, is a better distributor and would make the better half back.

Daicos is dominating a fairly average NAB League and is a deserving #2. Put Horne in the same competition and I don't think it's a question.

^
This.

 

[Chris25]

The SA U18s isn't the NAB League. South Australia as a state don't produce half the talent the NAB League do, and you get a lot of the better talent playing League/Reserves by the end of the year anyway.

Nobody is arguing this. The NAB League is far the stronger underage competition - although I'd say the differential isn't as great so far this year, but that's another topic. I just don't think you can mark Horne down for not 'dominating' when he's playing senior football. My point was the last time he played against his peers, he was dominant - like Daicos this year. If Daicos was playing VFL, he'd probably be playing on a flank too and getting 15-20 touches. Doesn't mean he's not doing well.

When scouting senior football, it's not about the 18 year old dominating and being BOG every week. It's about moments. And Horne keeps on showing glimpses that he's a class above. You can see it when he gets that midfield time, creating space and winning the clearance. The fact he doesn't look out of place in one of the stronger SANFL sides is a positive.

For me anyway, Horne is the clear #1.

 

[Knightmare]

Nobody is arguing this. The NAB League is far the stronger underage competition - although I'd say the differential isn't as great so far this year, but that's another topic. I just don't think you can mark Horne down for not 'dominating' when he's playing senior football. My point was the last time he played against his peers, he was dominant - like Daicos this year. If Daicos was playing VFL, he'd probably be playing on a flank too and getting 15-20 touches. Doesn't mean he's not doing well.

When scouting senior football, it's not about the 18 year old dominating and being BOG every week. It's about moments. And Horne keeps on showing glimpses that he's a class above. You can see it when he gets that midfield time, creating space and winning the clearance. The fact he doesn't look out of place in one of the stronger SANFL sides is a positive.

For me anyway, Horne is the clear #1.

Where my position on Horne differs to your own is there aren't a lot of 'moments' with Horne in the games I've seen. His good moments are almost exclusively his pressure and tackling, that's what he does at a frequency where I can say with conviction - that's an area of the game he's having an impact and showing up every week.

His impact in other facets of the game have been very low frequency. He's playing like a component to a team in the SANFL as we speak. And that's still good, but not pick 1 stuff.

I need to see a far elevated frequency of those moments from Horne, even in the context of it is League football he's playing before I talk about him as being near the level of Daicos let alone having anything close to future Brownlow potential. At this point, I don't see that as at all realistic.

If Horne can get to a level of perhaps a Rory Sloane and make an All-Australian team and win a couple of B+Fs, that would be a good outcome.