Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Dave06]

Statistically in the NAB League Daicos' season comes out favourably as there isn't anyone that comes to mind to have him beat both in disposals and goals per game, he's in the absolute uber elite in both categories by position. So in some respects it could be looked at as the most dominant. The important factors to consider in that equation though are when Daicos gets 40d, it feels more like 25-30d as he does get a lot of cheap ball around the ground, so there are others at the same age/stage who have definitely been more influential as he's more medium than high impact per possession - with his disposals in congestion where he's in that Pendlebury-like way doing damaging. He's also facing the weakest NAB League competition that I've seen in recent years, so that's another component to be aware of. Daicos is my #1 this year at this point, but he's not one where I feel he'll necessarily become one of the premier say 5 mids in the competition.

Dib is one the Pies should be looking at as he's that lively ground level type, who really goes for his tackles and plays with a lot of aggression. He's one of those where he bobs up and has his moments. Super clean and one of the few who still looks good in the wet. There is the potential for him to be a role player up forward at AFL level which is the appeal. He's one I'd prefer as a rookie to secure, but would say certainly if another club bid on him in the second round I'd pass on. He's definitely someone the Pies should be and no doubt will be tracking closely. At this stage he's inside my top-50 power rankings, but in the 40-50 range to get more specific as to where I personally rate him.

Thanks KM, interesting info on both boys. Appreciate you taking the time to respond.

 

[Rusty Beam]

So I rate Horne higher than Daicos because of state loyalty? Not because I genuinely think he’s the better prospect

I could make the same statement that you’re continually talking him down as a show of support to Daicos as a Collingwood fan.

Both players are allowed to be good. Don’t worry.

Personally I don’t think either will be the best player to come out of the draft. History says as much, but time will obviously be the ultimate judge.

From my perspective both have plenty of areas to improve and question marks on their games. Although, out of the two, I do find on here that only Daicos’s weaknesses (and games) get scrutinised.

Maybe you are right, it irks me more than it should (as a Pies fan), but I do think even as an avid draft follower, a bit of balance and less hyperbole, wouldn’t go astray

 

[Davo-27]

Personally I don’t think either will be the best player to come out of the draft. History says as much, but time will obviously be the ultimate judge.

From my perspective both have plenty of areas to improve and question marks on their games. Although, out of the two, I do find on here that only Daicos’s weaknesses (and games) get scrutinised.

Maybe you are right, it irks me more than it should (as a Pies fan), but I do think even as an avid draft follower, a bit of balance and less hyperbole, wouldn’t go astray

I find it hard to seperate the 2, on one hand you have a strong bodied player who has high impact but low production, who is performing at state league level and who has a good track record in u18s Versus a small bodied similar style player to his brother who is so consistently productive and has a good record for kicking goals that most forwards would be proud of as an inside outside mid, If Daicos had a bigger body or Horne was more productive they would be clear #1.

Thats why i think guys like Sam Darcy and Finn Callaghan might bridge the gap and be included in the "soft elite" grouping in this draft pool, i say soft elite because im not sure at this point if any deserve the elite tag.

PS theres vision on youtube of Daicos kicking a goal after the siren in 2018 i believe in school footy to win a game which speaks volumes for his composure in front of goal.

 

[Oldest Tiger]

Hi,whats you take on Elliot from Calder, played a few games with Richmond VFL and looked OK

 

[Knightmare]

Personally I don’t think either will be the best player to come out of the draft. History says as much, but time will obviously be the ultimate judge.

From my perspective both have plenty of areas to improve and question marks on their games. Although, out of the two, I do find on here that only Daicos’s weaknesses (and games) get scrutinised.

Maybe you are right, it irks me more than it should (as a Pies fan), but I do think even as an avid draft follower, a bit of balance and less hyperbole, wouldn’t go astray

I largely have a similar view to what Davo-27 is expressing re. there being a chance for others to be the best in this draft. And in reality every year there is a chance that someone other than the first or second pick becomes the best as they're ultimately just 18 year olds and others can develop later, but I can't say I see either being on such a special level where it unrealistic to be discussing the chances of others passing them by.

The name that immediately comes to mind is Darcy. I consider him to have the highest ceiling in the draft as he's one where we haven't ever had anyone at his height (could he grow to 206/207cm?) with his capabilities and he's one where if everything goes right, he could be all-time great.

Callaghan others will point to, and he's another where at that 190cm, I haven't quite seen anyone move like him (J.Macrae was a similar mover as a junior but not as quick, Polec some similarities, while Menadue also similar as a mover though shorter and lighter), so he's another where if everything really goes right, he could be special in his own right, though with him there is the risk it just doesn't come together. It's probably going to come down to how advanced the contested side of his game becomes and how he progresses as a tackler.

I should also add as a side note. People are either underselling or not realising how good both Matthew Roberts from SA and Josh Ward from VIC are. They're not that far behind Horne and Daicos respectively and should both have terrific careers respectively.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi,whats you take on Elliot from Calder, played a few games with Richmond VFL and looked OK

Fraser Elliot is former Oakleigh. I'm not aware of him having any connection to Calder. He has played 2 games for Richmond's VFL side from what I can tell (haven't seen him this year).

Basically he's a strong bodied competitive ball winning mid and was a good piece for Oakleigh last in 2019. He has the kind of game/size/strength where he should be having a pretty immediate impact for Richmond's VFL side. Nothing flashy about him, but does his best work on the inside and works hard both ways is what you should find.

 

[foxdog50]

Knightmare
In regards to this year's draft, what would you think the quality of players be like in this years draft compare to the pass draft year's?
Cheers FoxDog50

 

[H00t]

I’m not sure what everyone’s fascination with pick 1 must be the best player in the draft. The fact any have been the best player is a miracle. Riewoldt the only one since 2000. Though Walsh and Rowell might have something to say about that.

Given 80 + players are drafted every year the odds are way against pick 1. Especially given development at AFL level is so important and clubs or injuries can ruin it.

Daicos and Horne are both showing some very nice traits but their journey is just beginning. I’d personally take Horne because I feel he could fit in with any midfield and improve it. His defensive work sets him apart.

 

[Shack18]

I find it hard to seperate the 2, on one hand you have a strong bodied player who has high impact but low production, who is performing at state league level and who has a good track record in u18s Versus a small bodied similar style player to his brother who is so consistently productive and has a good record for kicking goals that most forwards would be proud of as an inside outside mid, If Daicos had a bigger body or Horne was more productive they would be clear #1.

Thats why i think guys like Sam Darcy and Finn Callaghan might bridge the gap and be included in the "soft elite" grouping in this draft pool, i say soft elite because im not sure at this point if any deserve the elite tag.

PS theres vision on youtube of Daicos kicking a goal after the siren in 2018 i believe in school footy to win a game which speaks volumes for his composure in front of goal.

I was at that school game you refer to, Carey vBrighton, reckon about 40 out and didn’t hit that well but went through to win the game after the siren. He is a fantastic have watched him since u10’s

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare
In regards to this year's draft, what would you think the quality of players be like in this years draft compare to the pass draft year's?
Cheers FoxDog50

Below average draft.

Top end/first round below average. Below average depth. Below average group of talls with only two presenting as first round calibre at this stage. Below average Victorian crop.

What this draft does have is midfielders with versatility as combo inside/outside mids with many of whom able to also push forward.

 

[Polo342]

Hey Knightmare, If Adam Cerra was in this draft what pick would he be around?

 

[foxdog50]

Below average draft.

Top end/first round below average. Below average depth. Below average group of talls with only two presenting as first round calibre at this stage. Below average Victorian crop.

What this draft does have is midfielders with versatility as combo inside/outside mids with many of whom able to also push forward.

Thanks for the reply

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, If Adam Cerra was in this draft what pick would he be around?

After Horne and aside from the father-sons, Cerra is more appealing to me than that next best player in this draft. He's worth pick 2 this year in my eyes (or pick 4 after bidding). Others may value pick 2 more highly, but I can't say I'm seeing anyone clearly better in this draft aside from the big 3 at this stage.

 

[Jazny]

Hey Knightmare i want your opinion and thoughts as to why Callow isn't performing as well at VFL level than he did at SANFL level. I have mine but wanna know yours.

He is a 19 year, in his third different team in the last 10 months, trying to learn a new system? Do you think anyone was expecting much more?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

What this draft does have is midfielders with versatility as combo inside/outside mids with many of whom able to also push forward.

Setting KPPs aside, how does the midfield group alone compare with the same in other drafts? Say the top 10 mids.

 

[Knightmare]

KM I know you do rate walsh highly however I have always felt you slightly underrate him when you compare him to other players. I agree smith looks a more damaging prospect but even in your predicted under 22 team for this year, you had walsh scraping in on the end of bench (he was starting wing last 2 years), and all your other videos you seemed to rate a lot of others ahead of him. You also didnt have him anywhere near your mid-season AA team.

I understand a lot of those things were before this season began, but now that the season is nearing towards the end, with the benefit of hindsight, have his performances this year changed your rating of him at all? a lot of experts are saying he is a certain all australian this year and while im not so sure about that, I do believe he has shown enough to be ranked as a better long-term prospect ahead of the likes of king, rowell, butters, cerra, cox, LDU etc.

My view of Walsh continues to improve as he improves, as with evaluations of all players. My view of Walsh and his stocks have risen in my books as his power has developed and his inside craft has improved.

Walsh is having a sensational season isn't he? He'd be in my All-Australian second team if I was to make one, but unless I threw him into an outside role I would find it difficult to personally place him ahead of even those emergencies I listed off in the video in Macrae/Steele/Lyons, and I'd add Cunnington to that list of others ahead of Walsh of the other midfielders, though of those others to miss out I can't immediately think of others I'd have ahead of Walsh to give you a feel for where I rate him in relation to the competition's other midfielders. Wines I'd have to have in the same conversation with Walsh, and is another I'd be picking for that second team on the back of the sensational season he's also having.

It's been a shame not seeing Butters in particular as last year he was Port Adelaide's best player for mine and this year before injury appeared to be creating separation.

In terms of performances this year of the 2018 draft crop, Walsh is the top performer. With Butters out, Smith not getting much in the way of inside minutes, Lukosius being thrown around the place yet again, both of King's not getting enough support, Blakey getting misused and playing entirely the wrong role, Caldwell getting hurt and Connor Rozee struggling this year, and the call on Walsh being the best this year is clear-cut.

I'd also modify the Under-22 team to have Walsh on the field, clearly outplaying Rowell who isn't playing like himself on return and no doubt rushing back too soon because he loves footy that much, LDU who hasn't to the extent expected broken out (personal issues likely playing a part) and Cerra who missed a month and has been very good but not up to the elite level Walsh has been playing. Walsh has moved past Smith now and it's on Smith to take that next step, which I don't think is far away from him as another I believe will perhaps from next year join the competition's elite midfielders.

If you asked me, any one young midfielder to start my team with, Walsh would definitely be in that conversation. Top of mind, Walsh/Butters/Smith may be those most desirable young mids, and maybe it's just they're coming to mind because I'm thinking 2018 draft. Butters I feel like is the most talented and damaging of the three, but I come from the school of availability is the best ability, and I don't believe Walsh has missed a game yet in his career, so having that level of durability, he's on that basis in my view the more valuable and the one I'd most want on my list. I'm not convinced Walsh will ever become the best midfielder in the competition and he's never in my view going to hit that Ablett/Danger/Dusty/Fyfe uber elite level at his peak as he doesn't have the forward of centre impact those guys can provide, but until the next guy has that Walsh level midfield ability in combination with that equal level of forward of centre impact, those guys will be hard to beat, and I'm not yet seeing that guy who has next, with Walsh more-so that safe pick at this stage.

Is Walsh the best from the 2018 draft? I'd still say too early to be able to conclusively say that. The top end from that draft is all-time special. If Butters gets healthy and takes on a prominent midfield role, when Smith eventually gets regular midfield minutes, when Rozee gets back healthy, once we see the talls collectively in their fourth season, I feel like that's when we're taking moving towards having a better idea as to who the best from 2018 really is. Even Tarryn Thomas is starting to play some good footy now, James Rowbottom is a good mid, and Rankine if he takes off and realises his talent, could really go off and be great. So it's as per my thoughts heading into that draft an All-time great top end and one of those where I feel like a bit like with the 2001 draft, there will be debate as to who will be the best. Walsh has come out of the blocks like Judd did that year, but we might still have the Ablett or Hodge to emerge still. And I can't help but think Butters could be that Ablett if Walsh is the Judd if we're talking in equivalents in career trajectory.

Setting KPPs aside, how does the midfield group alone compare with the same in other drafts? Say the top 10 mids.

The midfielders this year are the relative strong point of this draft compared to other positions, so if you're just looking at midfielders, and just those first 10 picked, I would say around average and more than adequate. Daicos and Horne are sufficient as a top-2. Roberts and Ward are both nice (Ward is after Daicos the next best midfielder at this stage I'm increasingly feeling), Callaghan is a boom/bust pick, MacDonald can play, Hobbs is solid, Jackson can rack it up and use it well, so there are enough others who can play, albeit some more erratically than others (looking at Sonsie), so it's not like there aren't able midfielders in this draft, though I would say an unusually high concentration of balanced mids who can also play a second position, and probably after that better 10 or so midfielders a relative lack of depth.

 

[nelk boys]

The midfielders this year are the relative strong point of this draft compared to other positions, so if you're just looking at midfielders, and just those first 10 picked, I would say around average and more than adequate. Daicos and Horne are sufficient as a top-2. Roberts and Ward are both nice (Ward is after Daicos the next best midfielder at this stage I'm increasingly feeling), Callaghan is a boom/bust pick, MacDonald can play, Hobbs is solid, Jackson can rack it up and use it well, so there are enough others who can play, albeit some more erratically than others (looking at Sonsie), so it's not like there aren't able midfielders in this draft, though I would say an unusually high concentration of balanced mids who can also play a second position, and probably after that better 10 or so midfielders a relative lack of depth.

Just wondering on your view on how Callaghan could be a bust? If he adds more contested side to his game, he has the most potential to be the best pick in this draft. While even if he does not add more of this contested footy, he could become a very good wing player at least.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Knightmare Chris25 just wondering if you watched Horne’s game today?

Still waiting to see any analysis on Bigfooty from anyone….

 

[Knightmare]

Just wondering on your view on how Callaghan could be a bust? If he adds more contested side to his game, he has the most potential to be the best pick in this draft. While even if he does not add more of this contested footy, he could become a very good wing player at least.

Why I'm seeing boom/bust with Callaghan is there isn't one position where he's absolutely beyond doubt certain. On the outside I don't look at Callaghan as necessarily all that damaging (kick is okay to good but not exceptional) and he'd likely only be a moderate accumulator on the outside, so he's not someone on the outside I find all that appealing. The spot he can become great is as an inside mid because of that all-time special movement in traffic. He just needs to develop both as a ball winner and tackler to become that AFL standard piece through there, and he has some way to go to get there still having even in his best on ground performance v Eastern not gone nearly hard enough when the ball way there to be won or to lay tackles he needed to go all in on.

I'd be looking to Callaghan to be watching lots of Pendlebury and Macrae. That's the kind of player he has the upside to be if he fulfils his potential, but if he doesn't develop those ball winning and tackling capabilities he could be something more like a far less damaging and less penetrating Jared Polec. And he's yet to convince me he won't be more like the latter, so I remain cautious in talking about him ahead of the better midfielders in this year's draft.

Knightmare Chris25 just wondering if you watched Horne’s game today?

Still waiting to see any analysis on Bigfooty from anyone….

The game would have been televised on channel 7 today in SA, as it's not a SANFL website game. Replay should be up tomorrow on the channel seven replay website and I'll watch it either tomorrow or some time during the week.

Statistically not a good game for Horne with just 9d, 7t, 3cl and 1g. I would imagine it's another of those Horne games where he doesn't find much of it but applies himself defensively - as that component to his game where even when he's struggling, and I say this every post with Horne and I'll keep saying it, but he'll even on those kinds of days continue to apply himself on that side of the ball as that one constant and staple to his game you can always rely on him to provide.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Why I'm seeing boom/bust with Callaghan is there isn't one position where he's absolutely beyond doubt certain. On the outside I don't look at Callaghan as necessarily all that damaging (kick is okay to good but not exceptional) and he'd likely only be a moderate accumulator on the outside, so he's not someone on the outside I find all that appealing. The spot he can become great is as an inside mid because of that all-time special movement in traffic. He just needs to develop both as a ball winner and tackler to become that AFL standard piece through there, and he has some way to go to get there still having even in his best on ground performance v Eastern not gone nearly hard enough when the ball way there to be won or to lay tackles he needed to go all in on.

I'd be looking to Callaghan to be watching lots of Pendlebury and Macrae. That's the kind of player he has the upside to be if he fulfils his potential, but if he doesn't develop those ball winning and tackling capabilities he could be something more like a far less damaging and less penetrating Jared Polec. And he's yet to convince me he won't be more like the latter, so I remain cautious in talking about him ahead of the better midfielders in this year's draft.



The game would have been televised on channel 7 today in SA, as it's not a SANFL website game. Replay should be up tomorrow on the channel seven replay website and I'll watch it either tomorrow or some time during the week.

Statistically not a good game for Horne with just 9d, 7t, 3cl and 1g. I would imagine it's another of those Horne games where he doesn't find much of it but applies himself defensively - as that component to his game where even when he's struggling, and I say this every post with Horne and I'll keep saying it, but he'll even on those kinds of days continue to apply himself on that side of the ball as that one constant and staple to his game you can always rely on him to provide.

Yeah, maybe I posted it facetiously to illustrate the lack of analysis of his games.

Personally I thought it was a pretty ordinary display and should be worthy of at least some discussion.

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah, maybe I posted it facetiously to illustrate the lack of analysis of his games.

Personally I thought it was a pretty ordinary display and should be worthy of at least some discussion.

I've wanted to feature Horne as my focus player since the start of the season, but I'm still waiting for that game he has a ripper where I can really talk him up as he deserves.

If you saw the game today, what did you think? Specifically what did he do well and what were his shortcomings?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

How bad is the Finn Callaghan foot injury? anyone know Knightmare

 

[Rusty Beam]

I've wanted to feature Horne as my focus player since the start of the season, but I'm still waiting for that game he has a ripper where I can really talk him up as he deserves.

If you saw the game today, what did you think? Specifically what did he do well and what were his shortcomings?

We’ll that’s now 6 times I’ve watched him in the SANFL this year (plus the AIS game). Obviously this was his quietest game, but I reckon it’s a reasonable sample size and was consistent with my observations from other occasions.

For all the sh*t Nick cops for sitting off the pack, Horne does the exact same thing. Personally I don’t think he is a great stoppage player, unless he gets it tapped into space where he can use his burst to gather and run. He definitely isn’t Dangerfield busting through the middle of the pack, Taylor Adams extracting the ball through sheer desperation (generally diving on the ball) or other stoppage monsters like Libba, Oliver etc who burrow the ball out.

There was one nice little passage where the ball was tapped into space and he was able to do this, but unfortunately his ensuing kick was smothered.

His aggression, tackling, evasion and power, does mean he is a very good one on one post stoppage contested player though. Either able to buffer his opponent off the ball or apply tackle pressure. He did get pinged trying to ‘don’t argue’ his opponent at one stage, but it obviously still showed great intent and is encouraging.

Having said that he doesn’t seem to be able to link up in the chain of play often. It’s hard to tell watching remotely whether this is work rate or running patterns/positioning. The telling thing for me is how little time he is actually is in the shot.

Again the defensive side (principally tackling) of his game was excellent. Not sure much else needs to be said about this other than it is consistently at a very high level.

For all this talk about him being a high flying contested marking freak I’ve seen no sign of it. Not as an potential intercept marking defender, nor as a consistent legitimate forward 50 aerial threat. The contested marking season stats back up the sample I’ve seen too. He actually had zero marks of any sort for the game which is astounding.

Lastly whilst it was a dubious free kick with him over exaggerating the push, he still did manage to kick another goal. His kicking action and routine seems really solid.

 

[Boristown]

Knightmare, what did you think of Jamarra's game yesterday?

 

[Blackhawk42]

Knightmare If Callaghan misses the rest of the season with that footy (just a rumour at this point) could a strong second half of the season catapult Josh Goater high enough to be considered with Hawthorns first pick? Hawks fans are pretty universal in the type of midfielder we want/need and Goater feels like the next choice behind Callaghan.