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Review 2023 National Draft Review Thread II [McKercher, Z.Duursma, Goad, W.Dawson, Hardeman, Maley]

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ohmygewd said:
Thats why Watto is pick 3 in my eyes!!! You can have all the metric in the world but this kid in this interview (and other that are around), you get to see an insight that someone like Clarko loves and would want in everyone of his players - the drive/mentality to prove everyone wrong.
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Yeh and the confidence and swagger he has for a smaller bloke is unrivalled

This bloke will succeed

Has more talent than anyone in the draft bar Reid imo.

Agree with the article this guy is going to be kicking goals for fun on a regular basis that will rival Breust and co when all is said and done over 500+
 
My Left Foote said:
Only 18 days until the draft. Hang in there people almost there.
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Certainly seems to be dragging this year.

Hurry up and get there so I know which 2 of Reid, McKercher and Duursma we're getting!!!!!

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk
 

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ohmygewd said:
Thats why Watto is pick 3 in my eyes!!! You can have all the metric in the world but this kid in this interview (and other that are around), you get to see an insight that someone like Clarko loves and would want in everyone of his players - the drive/mentality to prove everyone wrong.
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He wouldn't certainly offer a POD vs Dursma who'd be competing with others for a spot.
 
ohmygewd said:
Thats why Watto is pick 3 in my eyes!!! You can have all the metric in the world but this kid in this interview (and other that are around), you get to see an insight that someone like Clarko loves and would want in everyone of his players - the drive/mentality to prove everyone wrong.
Click to expand...

Can't wait till he gets drafted to another club!
 
You know, people talk about the value of our late firsts, but excluding Petrie, and the boys from our most recent two drafts, I went through our entire draft history and I think if we had traded every other pick in the 20s that we have taken for Harley Reid, I think I could live with it.

We lose the trade but if Harley Reid lived up to his potential you're not losing any sleep over it.

Warren Campbell, Chris Groom, Evan Hewitt, Brad Stephens, Callum Urch, Chad Jones, Matt Riggio, Gavin Urquhart, Sam Wright, Ryan Bastinac, Aaron Black, Kieran Harper, Daniel Nielson, Ben Mckay and Will Walker. That's 25+ years of drafting, and if Reid wins a Brownlow you'd probably take him over that entire list. If we take all three picks to the draft, then history says we're lucky if one of them gets to 100 games.

Hopefully Goater and George are the start of our fortunes changing, but I think it's worth adding some pessimism to the discussion. If we can take Reid, and keep two of picks 2, 3, and our future first, then by all means you do it.
 
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Mixed Results said:
You know, people talk about the value of our late firsts, but excluding Petrie, and the boys from our most recent two drafts, I went through our entire draft history and I think if we had traded every other pick in the 20s that we have taken for Harley Reid, I think I could live with it.

We lose the trade but if Harley Reid lived up to his potential you're not losing any sleep over it.

Warren Campbell, Chris Groom, Evan Hewitt, Brad Stephens, Callum Urch, Chad Jones, Matt Riggio, Gavin Urquhart, Sam Wright, Ryan Bastinac, Aaron Black, Kieran Harper, Daniel Nielson, and Will Walker. That's 25+ years of drafting, and if Reid wins a Brownlow you'd probably take him over that entire list. If we take all three picks to the draft, then history says we're lucky if one of them gets to 100 games.

Hopefully Goater and George are the start of our fortunes changing, but I think it's worth adding some cynicism to the discussion. If we can take Reid, and keep two of picks 2, 3, and our future first, then by all means you do it.
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I agree with Reid, 2 and 3, but not with the preceding analysis; the fact that we’ve been crap at picks around 20 doesn’t mean everyone is. Van Rooyen went at 19, max Holmes at 20, Schoenberg at 24, Oscar Allen at 21. If we still have 15 17 18 we should find quality even if they slide a bit. Our tendency seems to have been (pre Rawlings) picks in the 20s aren’t worth much so why not gamble on some long shot ( eg Dan Nielson), but in other cases (black and Harper) we lucked out through injury
 

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Mixed Results said:
You know, people talk about the value of our late firsts, but excluding Petrie, and the boys from our most recent two drafts, I went through our entire draft history and I think if we had traded every other pick in the 20s that we have taken for Harley Reid, I think I could live with it.

We lose the trade but if Harley Reid lived up to his potential you're not losing any sleep over it.

Warren Campbell, Chris Groom, Evan Hewitt, Brad Stephens, Callum Urch, Chad Jones, Matt Riggio, Gavin Urquhart, Sam Wright, Ryan Bastinac, Aaron Black, Kieran Harper, Daniel Nielson, Ben Mckay and Will Walker. That's 25+ years of drafting, and if Reid wins a Brownlow you'd probably take him over that entire list. If we take all three picks to the draft, then history says we're lucky if one of them gets to 100 games.

Hopefully Goater and George are the start of our fortunes changing, but I think it's worth adding some pessimism to the discussion. If we can take Reid, and keep two of picks 2, 3, and our future first, then by all means you do it.
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Are you saying pick 15, 17 & 18 aren't worth much because we are sh*t at drafting young talent? That's one way of looking at it.
 
Merlin007 said:
I agree with Reid, 2 and 3, but not with the preceding analysis; the fact that we’ve been crap at picks around 20 doesn’t mean everyone is. Van Rooyen went at 19, max Holmes at 20, Schoenberg at 24, Oscar Allen at 21. If we still have 15 17 18 we should find quality even if they slide a bit. Our tendency seems to have been (pre Rawlings) picks in the 20s aren’t worth much so why not gamble on some long shot ( eg Dan Nielson), but in other cases (black and Harper) we lucked out through injury
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speedy said:
Are you saying pick 15, 17 & 18 aren't worth much because we are sh*t at drafting young talent? That's one way of looking at it.
Click to expand...

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru - this link has some analysis of the historical success rate of picks, although it is limited in only including data up to 2012. This is an imposed limitation as it allows them to only assess players who have had the potential to have 10-year careers. You can also remove this filter if you wish.

Recruiters these days have improved since the period that this dataset looks at, but not dramatically enough to discredit the main takeaway which is that picks in the 20s are overvalued.

Per this data, on average only one of our three picks will lead to a 100-game player. Success rates have improved since then, but we aren't the only club with a long list of spuds drafted in the 20s.
 
From Fox Footy, pretty generic no real insight.

NORTH MELBOURNE
Draft picks: 2, 3, 15, 17, 18, 57, 82

List chasm: Clearly there’s several issues the Roos need to address. Ben McKay wasn’t setting the world on fire this season but his departure only adds to the need for stability in defence. At the other end, however, they need to try find more support for star Nick Larkey, with Cam Zurhaar not cementing himself just yet as a reliable foil. The middle of the ground looks pretty good, but the key position ends are in need of addressing.

Ideal draft prospects: Even though their midfield is in good shape, there’s certainly no harm in adding Harley Reid if they’re able to trade up for the number one pick or if, somehow, the Eagles pass on him. If they don’t have pick one, Colby McKercher is a jet but also the midfield is not their area of greatest need. Daniel Curtin looms as an option for the defensive end, but Zane Duursma is another who will feature high in the order and would give them more bite in the attacking half. It’s hard to see the Roos passing him up given his profile. They wanted exclusive access to Ryley Sanders but were denied.
 
My Left Foote said:
From Fox Footy, pretty generic no real insight.

NORTH MELBOURNE
Draft picks: 2, 3, 15, 17, 18, 57, 82

List chasm: Clearly there’s several issues the Roos need to address. Ben McKay wasn’t setting the world on fire this season but his departure only adds to the need for stability in defence. At the other end, however, they need to try find more support for star Nick Larkey, with Cam Zurhaar not cementing himself just yet as a reliable foil. The middle of the ground looks pretty good, but the key position ends are in need of addressing.

Ideal draft prospects: Even though their midfield is in good shape, there’s certainly no harm in adding Harley Reid if they’re able to trade up for the number one pick or if, somehow, the Eagles pass on him. If they don’t have pick one, Colby McKercher is a jet but also the midfield is not their area of greatest need. Daniel Curtin looms as an option for the defensive end, but Zane Duursma is another who will feature high in the order and would give them more bite in the attacking half. It’s hard to see the Roos passing him up given his profile. They wanted exclusive access to Ryley Sanders but were denied.
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A week or two back I put the question to some free online generative AI thingo about who North should draft. It came out very similar to that article. That must be just a spooky coincidence of course. The only problem was, because it was free I couldn't export the text so I cracked the shits and gave up on it. Perhaps the jOurNAliSt at Fox Footy has a paid account.
 
Mixed Results said:
AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru - this link has some analysis of the historical success rate of picks, although it is limited in only including data up to 2012. This is an imposed limitation as it allows them to only assess players who have had the potential to have 10-year careers. You can also remove this filter if you wish.

Recruiters these days have improved since the period that this dataset looks at, but not dramatically enough to discredit the main takeaway which is that picks in the 20s are overvalued.

Per this data, on average only one of our three picks will lead to a 100-game player. Success rates have improved since then, but we aren't the only club with a long list of spuds drafted in the 20s.
Click to expand...
I think it's a tricky part of the draft where you look at high ceiling low floor players. 2016 you had a choice between Cedric Cox and Shai Bolton in the 20s for electric half forwards. One is gone and probably just remembered by me and Brisbane supporters whereas Bolton (taken after Cedric if my memory serves me) is a top five game breaker in the league.

Later on in the drafts are the project talls, vanilla mids and defensive role players. Probably more likely to become players but less likely to become stars.

I'd take Reid too though, even if it meant all of those picks. I think he suits us so much better than McKercher and I'll back later picks in to help us find roleplayers to surround Reid, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Powell, Phillips, Thomas, LDU and Simpkin.
 

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SonofSamsquanch said:
A week or two back I put the question to some free online generative AI thingo about who North should draft. It came out very similar to that article. That must be just a spooky coincidence of course. The only problem was, because it was free I couldn't export the text so I cracked the shits and gave up on it. Perhaps the jOurNAliSt at Fox Footy has a paid account.
Click to expand...
Screenshot?
 
Mixed Results said:
You know, people talk about the value of our late firsts, but excluding Petrie, and the boys from our most recent two drafts, I went through our entire draft history and I think if we had traded every other pick in the 20s that we have taken for Harley Reid, I think I could live with it.

We lose the trade but if Harley Reid lived up to his potential you're not losing any sleep over it.

Warren Campbell, Chris Groom, Evan Hewitt, Brad Stephens, Callum Urch, Chad Jones, Matt Riggio, Gavin Urquhart, Sam Wright, Ryan Bastinac, Aaron Black, Kieran Harper, Daniel Nielson, Ben Mckay and Will Walker. That's 25+ years of drafting, and if Reid wins a Brownlow you'd probably take him over that entire list. If we take all three picks to the draft, then history says we're lucky if one of them gets to 100 games.

Hopefully Goater and George are the start of our fortunes changing, but I think it's worth adding some pessimism to the discussion. If we can take Reid, and keep two of picks 2, 3, and our future first, then by all means you do it.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Picks in the 20s are so speculative. Yeah Reid is just a prospect but he has the potential to be a type of player we would never attract from another club.
 

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