Which side fails to play in September?

[PowerfulPies2023]

It is ridiculous. Adelaide have Been great this year you barely beat them. Home Ground advantage is huge. GABBA too. At worst they're 60/40, Bare minimum. Form obviously plays a part but if you were to play right now Crows would be about a 70 percent chance to win that game and be priced no more than $1.60 amd in all likelihood would be more around the 1
40 to 1.50 mark or in between.

You only have wins over GWS and Adelaide in Tassie to my knowledge and that was a while ago now. Most yiur wins have been against teams 9th or lower.

Crows are $1.50 as I said they would be. If I can predict that it speaks for itself.

If it were truly 50-50 the odds would be 1.90. No way you get that in Adelaide. The fact it's in Adelaide makes them favourites alone. Their form has been good too.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

No, odds = probability/ (1- probability). Opening markets are set before any bets, based on this formula. Odds then fluctuate based on money wagered, but that's because money wagered is just a reflection of the probability the punters place on a win and the bookies don't like losing money The fundamental relationship between odds and probability is the same

So true.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

You can laugh all you want dewyyyy but you're not fooling anyone not even yourself.

You're wrong. Amd you're too pig headed to admit it.

The facts speak for themselves.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

You can laugh all you want dewyyyy but you're not fooling anyone not even yourself.

You're wrong. Amd you're too pig headed to admit it.

The facts speak for themselves.

Facts being betting, and ignoring what I actually said. Good job buddy

 

[DreadBat5701894]

Brisbane

 

[THE_GUN]

Suns have just guaranteed their spot in the finals so we can take them off the list to miss finals now
13 wins and Richmond next week locks them into the 8

 

[maskmcgee]

Dogs will beat Melbourne and West Coast. Hawthorn will beat Melbourne. The dogs play GWS and Fremantle at Marvel. Hawks play the top 3, all at those sides home ground. Whoever gets more points, the dogs from those two games, the Hawks from those 3, will make finals. Dogs have it far easier.

 

[FootyLad0]

I have to say I am a bit surprised by Suns 90%. Suns usually fade out late in the season.

Yes, if Suns beat Lions on Sat. Unfortunately that is unlikely. One win from the last 12 QClashes or something lit that.

Not just a win, YOU SMASHED THEM

 

[HairyO]

Dogs will beat Melbourne and West Coast. Hawthorn will beat Melbourne. The dogs play GWS and Fremantle at Marvel. Hawks play the top 3, all at those sides home ground. Whoever gets more points, the dogs from those two games, the Hawks from those 3, will make finals. Dogs have it far easier.

Dogs may have it far easier but with 4 games to go they are 2 games behind. They have to beat the Giants and Freo to be sure of making finals.

 

[cactuscall]

Suns on the same % as Hawks now with an easy game in hand. There's a reason many have the Hawks as the ones missing: the fixture. But i don't think % will actually matter.

 

[Hobbes]

Brisbane have added themselves to the discussion. With GWS, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, (surely) Fremantle and (probably) Geelong winning, they’re only half a win ahead of eighth with a vicious draw.

 

[Defabs]

Brisbane have added themselves to the discussion. With GWS, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, (surely) Fremantle and (probably) Geelong winning, they’re only half a win ahead of eighth with a vicious draw.

They won’t miss as they’ll still be 6 points ahead of Dogs even if they lose to Collingwood next week. 7th or 8th a real possibility though

Top 2 chances will be 100% gone if they lose next week and top 4 could only happen if they win their final 3

 

[Coolangatta]

Brisbane have added themselves to the discussion. With GWS, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, (surely) Fremantle and (probably) Geelong winning, they’re only half a win ahead of eighth with a vicious draw.

Nah, we’ll make it. Can’t see us losing too many at the Gabba, but I think we’ll miss the top four.

It’ll be the Dogs or Hawks that miss. Dogs if they lose to GWS I think are gone.

 

[Hobbes]

Nah, we’ll make it. Can’t see us losing too many at the Gabba, but I think we’ll miss the top four.

It’ll be the Dogs or Hawks that miss. Dogs if they lose to GWS I think are gone.

If the Dogs don’t start beating teams above them, they’ll miss regardless of what everybody else does.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Had a feeling about Gold Coast but in all honesty I still would have tipped Brisbane. It's why I don't do tipping actually. Dogs would hate that result. They're right behind the pack now. Giants can end their season.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

I have to say I am a bit surprised by Suns 90%. Suns usually fade out late in the season.

Yes, if Suns beat Lions on Sat. Unfortunately that is unlikely.

They did it.

 

[Jirik13]

They did it.

I still can't believe it, haha.

 

[HeHateMe]

It's going to come down to the last game imo Hawks vs Brisbane.
Brissy playing for top 4, Hawks playing for a top 8 spot.

 

[Hobbes]

It's going to come down to the last game imo Hawks vs Brisbane.
Brissy playing for top 4, Hawks playing for a top 8 spot.

Before that, Brisbane play Collingwood away and Fremantle away. Top four might be long-gone.

 

[Mr Meow]

I still can't believe it, haha.

It's happening man. Order the party pies. You're in for a wild ride.

 

[Mr Meow]

It's going to come down to the last game imo Hawks vs Brisbane.
Brissy playing for top 4, Hawks playing for a top 8 spot.

Hawthorn will be a smokey in all 3 of their tough games. My gut says they'll win 1 of them (plus Melbourne), but I'm not sure which. Would 2 more wins be enough?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Surely it's now the Bulldogs as the top eight is locked in?

Bulldogs are the ones I’ve got missing.

11-8 atm

L GWS
W Dees
W Eagles
L Freo

Finish on 13.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawthorn will be a smokey in all 3 of their tough games. My gut says they'll win 1 of them (plus Melbourne), but I'm not sure which. Would 2 more wins be enough?

2 more locks it in at 15.

Dogs would need to win every game to make finals if Hawks do that.

 

[SA HAWK]

Bulldogs are the ones I’ve got missing.

11-8 atm

L GWS
W Dees
W Eagles
L Freo

Finish on 13.

No Toby Greene & playing in Melbourne i give them a very good chance to beat GWS.

 

[Mr Meow]

2 more locks it in at 15.

Dogs would need to win every game to make finals if Hawks do that.

Against GWS without Greene, Buckley and Kelly the Dogs are a real chance next week. I can actually see them winning out, as silly as it sounds after failing every big test so far.