If Harley Reid is worth up to $2m per year... what are these guys worth?

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Ill call it now and say Nick Daicos goes to Tasmania for 3 mill+ a year and does himself a GAJ.

He wont hang around at Collingwood for 10mill less

 

[WA ROO]

Ill call it now and say Nick Daicos goes to Tasmania for 3 mill+ a year and does himself a GAJ.

He wont hang around at Collingwood for 10mill less

With half of it some kind of AFL Ambassador payment

 

[HairyO]

As all 3 of those things are contingent not just on one’s own performance but on the performance’s of others, that’s a pretty stupid question.

Plenty of players have won Brownlows at shit teams. Just look at Carlton.

 

[HairyO]

Ill call it now and say Nick Daicos goes to Tasmania for 3 mill+ a year and does himself a GAJ.

He wont hang around at Collingwood for 10mill less

Contracted til 2029. Pies wouldnt let him go early, though maybe the AFL give them pick 2, 3 and 4 as compensation.

 

[PhatBoy]

Plenty of players have won Brownlows at shit teams. Just look at Carlton.

I doubt many have won them at teams who are 1-18 and have a percentage in the low 60s, additionally it is contingent on other people and how well they attract votes as well both in your games and other games. He can play at whatever level he wants - Judd-like - and it doesn’t matter a lick of shit if someone is playing better or getting more votes at another team.

 

[HairyO]

I doubt many have won them at teams who are 1-18 and have a percentage in the low 60s, additionally it is contingent on other people and how well they attract votes as well both in your games and other games. He can play at whatever level he wants - Judd-like - and it doesn’t matter a lick of shit if someone is playing better or getting more votes at another team.

Probably because they were good enough to drag them up to 3 or 4 wins off their own back.

Reid isnt that. He is often more a liability giving away so many frees and having tantrums.

 

[PhatBoy]

Probably because they were good enough to drag them up to 3 or 4 wins off their own back.

Reid isnt that. He is often more a liability giving away so many frees and having tantrums.

He’s 40 games into his career.

Winning a Brownlow is contingent on multiple factors, one of which is the performance of other players. A player polled record votes last year, and didn’t win. As such, winning it is not merely contingent on one’s own performance, it is contingent on the effort of others as well.

 

[Grumpyshades]

Probably because they were good enough to drag them up to 3 or 4 wins off their own back.

Reid isnt that. He is often more a liability giving away so many frees and having tantrums.

it would be nice if he got a fair shake of the sauce bottle though
clearly 2 sets of rules when it comes to Harley

its almost like it's a plan to frustrate the hell out of him so he will go back to inbred Victoria.. exactly what the VFL have wanted from day 1.

 

[Mr Meow]

Plenty of players have won Brownlows at shit teams. Just look at Carlton.

Judd and Cripps' Brownlows have come when they scraped into finals or just barely missed out. Those are competitive teams. Ablett at GC only won his Brownlow and then was leading the next year when GC were approaching competitiveness (2013-2014), and that was pushing the limits of how poor of a team you could win a Brownlow from. Good luck winning one in 2011-2012 type GC teams.

 

[Shupe]

Contracted til 2029. Pies wouldnt let him go early, though maybe the AFL give them pick 2, 3 and 4 as compensation.

I think if he goes, Collingwood should be compensated with picks 38, 40, 42 and 44. After all, that was the value of Daicos when he was drafted.

Absolute rort.

 

[SC_Power]

Given the alternative is comparing their disposal counts, relying on more advanced measures, even limited ones like SC, is more than fine, particularly when the gap between the two players is significant (in this case more than 50%).

Quality of teammates would be lucky to explain even a small percentage of that variation. The reality is that Reid averages more clangers per game than any player in the past 15 seasons, which is no small achievement when he doesn't rank in the top 120 players in the league for disposals.

Clanger: An error made by a player resulting in a negative result for his side. Disposal clangers are any kick or handball that directly turns the ball over to the opposition. Frees and 50-metre penalties against, No Pressure Errors, Dropped Marks and Debits are all included in clangers.
Given Harley Reid gives away a full 0.5 free kicks per game more than the second highest (Matt Rowell) and a full 1.0 free kicks per game more than the third highest midfielder (the next 6-7 are all ruckmen), then FA’s are significant in assessing Clanger counts.

Maybe look at his disposal efficiency - 69% - which seems to be exactly what let’s say Nick Daicos’ DE is. Another comparison, Matt Rowell at 71%.
Yet 43.5% of Reid’s disposals are contested, which is quite high and does impact disposal efficiency. Not as high as Rowell at 53%, but a lot higher than Daicos’ 36%.
There is an inverse correlation between disposal efficiency and contested possession %, the best users across the comp are in the 75-80% DE, but to a tee all of their CP% are down in the 20-30% range. Logically the more contested ball you have, the lower your disposal efficiency is. It ebbs and flows a little based on the difficulty of kick you are executing, but not a lot in the grand scheme of things.

In short, it is way overblown to suggest Reid has a disposal quality issue. Seems to be better than players we rate as superstars and Brownlow fancies.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Ill call it now and say Nick Daicos goes to Tasmania for 3 mill+ a year and does himself a GAJ.

He wont hang around at Collingwood for 10mill less

Yep I think something like that happens.

Funny things sting and drive players.

GAJ had his father in his ear telling him to chase down every cent he could get because he thought he himself was shortchanged through his career.

I think when Reid signs for $2m or close to it (be it at WC or elsewhere), the top few players in the comp like Daicos will feel it and see just how much they’ve missed out on. They knew there was a bit in it, which they’ll cop, but Reid earning $1m per year more than Daicos will sting and I think start to drive these top players to chase money.

This Reid contract seems like a real watershed moment in that sense.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Contracted til 2029. Pies wouldnt let him go early, though maybe the AFL give them pick 2, 3 and 4 as compensation.

If he goes to the Pies and asks for a trade then reckon they’d do it. Keep him and his family happy. The AFL will absolutely load Tassie with picks and the trade they’d get would be enormous

 

[Freomaniac]

As all 3 of those things are contingent not just on one’s own performance but on the performance’s of others, that’s a pretty stupid question.

$2m is absurd
And here I was thinking his market value had declined this year after a middling season

As you are both Geelong fans...

If this was the early to mid 1990s. There's only one bloke on that cats list you would justify paying 2 million a year to. Not because he was that good but also casual fans would go out of their way to see him at any AFL stadium he was playing in.

Yep I refer to Gary Ablett senior

 

[Freomaniac]

Don't know about brownlow medals for Harley Reid lol. His methods of breaking tackles and his method of respecting umpires decisions are a bit different to Chris Judd's . Judd was heaps good at breaking tackles in the congested midfield though. As a first and second year player that was the part of his game that stood out but I think Harley Reid does it better.

Well let's see how Harley Reid goes in 2026, his 3rd year and then in 2027, 2028 and 2029 in his 4th, 5th and 6th year. That if he stays at West coast eagles after 2026.

I would justify paying a 2004-2007 Chris Judd 2 million a year than a 2nd year Harley Reid.

Harley Reid hasn't justified being paid 2 million a year

 

[Chronz]

it would be nice if he got a fair shake of the sauce bottle though
clearly 2 sets of rules when it comes to Harley

its almost like it's a plan to frustrate the hell out of him so he will go back to inbred Victoria.. exactly what the VFL have wanted from day 1.

Damn those VFL villains. Is there no evil they won't stoop to in hurting the poor interstate sides?

 

[Cyclops]

Pies are shy about big contracts after we screwed up Grundys contract, not to mention the fire sale.

Still Reid is probably the best bet of all the gun mids to continue improving, very robust kid kn top of his other assets real and potential.

If you were going to give a player 20 million, he's probably your best bet. I wouldn't, but the market determines these things.

Just on Daicos, Reid might be the only player in that age bracket 18-24 on remotely similar money once you factor in "other earnings". Carlton may have looked after Cripps (a most deserving player, carried that club for years) with a zillion ad spots recently too, they might make up the top 3 outside the cap earners overall.

People bang on about Cotton On, i don't think Geelong are close to the Big 4 looking after players in financially creative ways.

 

[The_Reaper]

Well let's see how Harley Reid goes in 2026, his 3rd year and then in 2027, 2028 and 2029 in his 4th, 5th and 6th year. That if he stays at West coast eagles after 2026.

I would justify paying a 2004-2007 Chris Judd 2 million a year than a 2nd year Harley Reid.

Harley Reid hasn't justified being paid 2 million a year

Who else at west coast do you pay given we need to make 95% of salary cap?

 

[Grumpyshades]

Who else at west coast do you pay given we need to make 95% of salary cap?

I know! Do most pundits even understand how the salary cap works ?

When you factor in the reduction of list sizes and the exponential growth in the salary cap, the proposed $2m per season equates to about $1.2m 6-7 years ago.
Not exactly the 'out of whack' figure the salty Vic media and public are espousing

 

[Andyy]

I know! Do most pundits even understand how the salary cap works ?

When you factor in the reduction of list sizes and the exponential growth in the salary cap, the proposed $2m per season equates to about $1.2m 6-7 years ago.
Not exactly the 'out of whack' figure the salty Vic media and public are espousing

So basically prime Dusty top dollar?

Yeah, I think Reid will get there, I just don't agree with the 'pay him now what he should be worth one day' attitude.

I think players should develop and earn it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

What about Ben McKay

32

Ben Mckay

Age

28

Ht

202cm

Wt

104kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.5

2star

K

3.7

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.7

4star

MG

77.2

1star

D

7.5

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.5

2star

MG

88.5

2star

D

7.0

2star

K

3.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

67.8

1star

?

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Worth about the same as Watts, Scully, Patton and Boyd.

 

[Grumpyshades]

So basically prime Dusty top dollar?

Yeah, I think Reid will get there, I just don't agree with the 'pay him now what he should be worth one day' attitude.

I think players should develop and earn it.

not really..That was my point about people not understanding the salary cap..Dusty was sharing it with a lot of other premiership team mates..West coast have to pay 95% (to a yet again increasing cap) to who exactly ?
Oscar Allen apparently wont be there, McGovern was forced to retire ?

 

[Channels]

It may be recency bias but there's plenty of long term contracts that either player or clubs regret. Thinking Oliver, Petracca, Grundy, Treloar etc.

Not sure why either party wants to go longer than 5 years.

 

[StillAtLarge]

I wouldn't pay much at all until there are signs he has got rid of his immaturity and undisciplined acts. All the warning signs are there at the moment, if i club pays up and ignores it they could get majorly burnt

I wouldn't be too concerned. He's not directing his petulance towards teammates a la JHF at North. Copping the number one tag in your second year when you're not quite fit enough to run out games properly (yes he's not in ideal physical condition) would be frustrating