Autopsy Round 24, 2025: Lions get the chocolates

[SSSSSS]

Giants will likely regain Hogan and Kelly.

Hogan will be jabbed up to play.

 

[Paul Kersey]

Outplayed etc but with 6 min left it was anyone's game with 2pts difference. AFL be quietly happy Brisbane kicked a quick one immediately after the gift.

 

[Hawker_85]

We will most probably play an expansion club in a market they desperately need to promote.... prepare the lube.

sigh I live in Sydney at the moment so I will probably go to the game if I can get a ticket. Will prepare my ahnoose.

 

[Mrzohs]

Who are these defensive midfielders of which you speak?

Good question. Lost out at sea!

 

[Gut Runner]

Got smashed at the coal face and couldn't slow them down exiting our forward line.

Basically, meant we could never set up our intercept game with Sicily, Barrass and Scrimshaw. We could have murdered them with intercepts with their reserve key forwards but our clearance/stoppage work was terrible.

Way too slow in the forward line with the 4 talls. Yeah they are pretty mobile for talls but we need frenetic pressure.

We have to find a way to get Watson involved more - he is our most exciting and damaging player and we cannot afford for him to get only low possessions in the forward pocket.

 

[Yardie]

We have chosen to play one less midfielder (being Day) to accommodate four talls up forward. Might need to rethink this one.

Butler/MacKenzie in for Lewis
Morrison in for CJ
MacDonald/CJ the sub for Breust
Weddle in for ??? (Dare I say Scrimshaw as this was Weddle's role before the injury)

 

[seysearles]

Pretty familiar story. The back 7 all had good days, individually. The forwards took their chances. Ginni, Chol, Gunston, Watson were always dangerous.

Didn't end up mattering because we were battered in the middle. Our midfield CBAs were mostly Newk, Nash, Worpel, Ward. In their current state, a premiership midfield probably only has one of Nash, Worpel, Ward.

Remove McCluggage from their midfield and put him in ours and now youre talking.

 

[VandoHawk]

IF we can beat GWS, the draw opens up.

Most likely:
Pies at the G
Cats Prelim at the G.

Problem is I don’t think we’ve won a game interstate this year.

We’ve been competitive in most of them but fallen short.

 

[TylerDurden]

Problem is I don’t think we’ve won a game interstate this year.

We’ve been competitive in most of them but fallen short.

Swans R0.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Problem is I don’t think we’ve won a game interstate this year.

We’ve been competitive in most of them but fallen short.

Point taken, but we did defeat Sydney in Sydney in out first game.

 

[DearJai]

Bring in Butler across half forward, and a side like the Lions won't have the luxury of multiple half backs joining at stoppage to enjoy the easy outnumber/overlap run.

Mitch Lewis has been cruelled by injury and deserves an extended run at it, but he seems the logical choice to make way for more pressure.

Butler has been pressure personified when fit and in our side. He is what is required against the Fanta pants Tsunami.

 

[seysearles]

I'm a fan of country footy rules personally, where deliberate is never really paid and we just have a few extra throw ins per game.

Im the opposite. I like the deliberate being applied and erring on the side of presuming players want to get it out (even if it did hurt us on the weekend). I just think it keeps the ball in play a lot more and adds an additional level of excitement the same way that holding the ball does.

 

[RoughysMullet]

We have chosen to play one less midfielder (being Day) to accommodate four talls up forward. Might need to rethink this one.

Butler/MacKenzie in for Lewis
Morrison in for CJ
MacDonald/CJ the sub for Breust
Weddle in for ??? (Dare I say Scrimshaw as this was Weddle's role before the injury)

Lions were rebounding from our forward 50 with ease- our 4 talls were unable to pressure. Scrimshaw stays

Weddle in for Lewis
Morrison in for CJ who goes to sub - Breust out

Worpel/Cmac on thin ice - Mackenzie and Butler waiting in the wings

 

[SSSSSS]

Problem is I don’t think we’ve won a game interstate this year.

We’ve been competitive in most of them but fallen short.

5 losses at away grounds last year as well.

Only beat the Crows and Eagles (both bottom 4) away from home.

We don't travel well.

 

[Come back Cyril]

I think this game confirmed what most of us probably knew - we're not quite a premiership team yet. Lions (who, unfortunately will I think be contending for the next ten years) just have much more elite talent through their midfield and were realistically a 4 - 5 goal better side than us last night (and earlier this year). I love our competitive spirit though, we generally come to play in the big games.

We've got some work to do, bringing in at least one elite mid would really help, as will getting Day fit and improvement from Ward (needs to get more of the ball), Mckenzie and Butler (I have high hopes for him).

Looking forward to our upcoming finals - I hope we can win a game or two and go into the preaseason excited and ready to make the big leap to genuine contender.

 

[Elhawko]

On a different tack, I love how Sam hasn't made a single comment about the Amon deliberate decision that even King and Montagna said had a big impact on our chances. There are other coaches out there who would have made snide remarks about it, tried to leverage it to get a better run next week or used it as an excuse. I thought his line that we made more mistakes than the umpires was note-perfect and I hope some of the oppo haters give him credit for the dignity and professionalism he showed.

 

[thehardway]

Apart from a few good patches they dominated us and amazing we were still in it right to the end. Beaten soundly in the midfield and they exited our forward line way too easily putting us under immense pressure. We are one tall too many in the forward line. Tough for Lewis (1 disposal and goal from a lucky free) but I think he makes way for a small. Breust a legend but is now a liability without the ball. Morrison, Weddle (if scan ok), and Butler to replace Lewis, Breust, and CJ. CJ was OK but Morrison has been terrific all year and comes straight back in. Butler a good runner and tackler and can play forward/midfield. Weddle a potential match winner.

As for the midfield I checked the stats of Ours vs Brissies' and it was ugly reading. Maybe Moore/Watson play more minutes at stoppages or throw Weddle in there. We just can't rinse and repeat every week. Hopefully we play GWS as I think we match up well against them.

Just my thoughts at the moment but the Box Hill QF next Saturday may inform/change the shape of the team. Couldn't be any more incentive for the Box Hill potential ins to perform.

 

[BobHawk]

Haven't posted for yonks but just have to state that it is more than just a bit alarming that 2 years down the track and the team is still struggling with one core issue and that is, winning the hard ball. Pressure. Consider that a second year 20 YO and probably the smallest bloke on the field is the team's best tackler. This all goes back to Mitchell and the coaching staff. What the hell are they seeing out there and what have they been doing? There is no sense in pointing fingers at specific players when pretty much the entire team just looks soft. This is a road to nowhere in this comp and can quickly become a culture or the brand of the team. I mean the entire culture and history of the club's success is built on John Kennedy, Kanga's Commandos etc. But opposition teams play us the way they do because of that simple fact. Soft. Goes back to Port figuring it out 12 months ago. Fremantle did it a few weeks ago. And so on. I even remember that famous game on the Gold Coast (wet night?) when they had to discard the mouth guards at training that following week. Toughen up. Turned things around but then seemed to forget it all. And so it went. And here we are.

 

[thehardway]

Haven't posted for yonks but just have to state that it is more than just a bit alarming that 2 years down the track and the team is still struggling with one core issue and that is, winning the hard ball. Pressure. Consider that a second year 20 YO and probably the smallest bloke on the field is the team's best tackler. This all goes back to Mitchell and the coaching staff. What the hell are they seeing out there and what have they been doing? There is no sense in pointing fingers at specific players when pretty much the entire team just looks soft. This is a road to nowhere in this comp and can quickly become a culture or the brand of the team. I mean the entire culture and history of the club's success is built on John Kennedy, Kanga's Commandos etc. But opposition teams play us the way they do because of that simple fact. Soft. Goes back to Port figuring it out 12 months ago. Fremantle did it a few weeks ago. And so on. I even remember that famous game on the Gold Coast (wet night?) when they had to discard the mouth guards at training that following week. Toughen up. Turned things around but then seemed to forget it all. And so it went. And here we are.

 

[George Zip]

Haven't posted for yonks but just have to state that it is more than just a bit alarming that 2 years down the track and the team is still struggling with one core issue and that is, winning the hard ball. Pressure. Consider that a second year 20 YO and probably the smallest bloke on the field is the team's best tackler. This all goes back to Mitchell and the coaching staff. What the hell are they seeing out there and what have they been doing? There is no sense in pointing fingers at specific players when pretty much the entire team just looks soft. This is a road to nowhere in this comp and can quickly become a culture or the brand of the team. I mean the entire culture and history of the club's success is built on John Kennedy, Kanga's Commandos etc. But opposition teams play us the way they do because of that simple fact. Soft. Goes back to Port figuring it out 12 months ago. Fremantle did it a few weeks ago. And so on. I even remember that famous game on the Gold Coast (wet night?) when they had to discard the mouth guards at training that following week. Toughen up. Turned things around but then seemed to forget it all. And so it went. And here we are.

We're playing like we would have played in our three-peat years without Hodge and Lewis. As tactically sound as Mitchell is (most of the time), he's not enough of a killer, and that's reflected in our on-field efforts. It's the missing piece for another piece of silverware.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Whilst not a great game for Hawthorns side of things, the fact it was close despite a lot of reasons, would be very pleasing for the coaches, and should be for the fans. With a fair few improvements and some obvious style differences between the two sides, it’s an interesting read into the game, and beyond.

Brisbane:
Brisbane controlled the tempo through uncontested marks and stoppage dominance around the ground, their link play with midfielders and good ball-use was a standout.

Brisbane 42 clearances (30 stoppage)
Hawthorn 34 clearances (23 stoppage)
Brisbane 113 marks Hawthorn 63 marks

Brisbane controlled tempo through uncontested marks, and massively utilised their midfielders cleanliness, class and ball-use, especially in pivotal moments.

Brisbane 394 disposals
Hawthorn 342 disposals
Brisbane 5 players 25+ disposals 2 30+
Hawthorn 1 player 25+ disposals 1 30+

Of Brisbanes major disposal winners, 3 were midfielders, 1 wing and 1 half back. Compared to Hawthorn who had Amon 30+, and the next were forward (23), mid (23), mid (22) and defender (20).

Disposal efficiency isn’t the greatest statistic but of the 5 highest ball winners for Brisbane their average was 70.6% which was 5% greater than Hawthorns at 65.6% despite 4.6 more disposals on average.

Brisbanes downfall was their inability to kick straight, and at times poor selection for shots on goal. (5 of their 23 behinds rushed).

11.23 - Brisbane (17 normal behinds, 3 being posters, 5 rushed)
11.13 - Hawthorn (10 normal behinds, 1 being a poster, 3 rushed)

Middle ground:
Due to Hawthorns mediocre/poor ball-use going inside 50, Brisbane had 10 more intercepts.

Whilst the stoppages around the ground were in favour of Brisbane, the centre clearances were practically even, with not much disparity in contest outside of stoppage around the ground.

The pressure ebbed and flowed during the game, with it ending up quite even, the difference being pressure inside forward 50, a usual Hawthorn strength.

Brisbanes inaccuracy helped Hawthorn move the ball easier from defensive 50 at times for scores, albeit not consistently.

Both teams were strong defensively.

An interesting statistic being that Hawthorn still had a greater number of marks inside 50, despite the ball-use being poor going inside 50 not taking the chances. This perhaps is a sign of being too cute, or overplaying with ball in hand.

Possession heat maps are showing a good indicator of the spread Brisbanes midfield was able to create, and their tempo play-style of controlling the game.





The umpiring was overall very poor, and this is a key focus for the AFL, to create good finals games and not let umpiring be a dictation.

Hawthorn:
Hawthorn as mentioned, relatively even contest post stoppages, and practically even from the centre.

Hawthorn played more of a chaotic and running brand, which caught Brisbane off-guard at times. An obvious difference in brand for a large majority of this particular game.

Hawthorn were able to create run, use the ball between the arcs and be damaging going forward.

This was showcased through:

Hawthorn 12 bounces
Brisbane 3 bounces

Hawthorns defense was strong, despite allowing uncontested play for Brisbane.

Hawthorn 58 one percenters
Brisbane 40 one percenters

Hawthorns game fell apart due to their ball-use going inside 50. Not controlling the game enough when required and the contest work at stoppages around the ground not being to Brisbane's level.

An obvious difference between the two sides was the cleanliness of collection and hands in tight, Brisbane much classier and efficient during pivotal moments.

There were many parts of Hawthorns game that didn’t produce as it has in the past, and despite that, it was only a 10 point deficit.

Some of those include:

• Ball use (esp i50 kicks)
• Pressure inside forward 50.
• Contest
• Transition

There are further adjustments to be made to the system of who plays what role and who is selected for finals. For example, Morrison/Weddle & Mackenzie/Butler. This will be a focus for contest and spread, whilst trying to aid ball use consistency.

Definitely an interesting way to look at the game, I’m sure with more detailed statistics and game reviews. There’s bound to be more picked up on, and a lot of positives to take into GWS or Freo (performance wise and improvements).

 

[TONYC3163]

Haven't posted for yonks but just have to state that it is more than just a bit alarming that 2 years down the track and the team is still struggling with one core issue and that is, winning the hard ball. Pressure. Consider that a second year 20 YO and probably the smallest bloke on the field is the team's best tackler. This all goes back to Mitchell and the coaching staff. What the hell are they seeing out there and what have they been doing? There is no sense in pointing fingers at specific players when pretty much the entire team just looks soft. This is a road to nowhere in this comp and can quickly become a culture or the brand of the team. I mean the entire culture and history of the club's success is built on John Kennedy, Kanga's Commandos etc. But opposition teams play us the way they do because of that simple fact. Soft. Goes back to Port figuring it out 12 months ago. Fremantle did it a few weeks ago. And so on. I even remember that famous game on the Gold Coast (wet night?) when they had to discard the mouth guards at training that following week. Toughen up. Turned things around but then seemed to forget it all. And so it went. And here we are.

Disagree, our pressure rating is high from what I’ve read, and to say the team is soft is wrong.

 

[TONYC3163]

Disagree, our pressure rating is high from what I’ve read, and to say the team is soft is wrong.

From https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?comp=afl&season=2025

 

[BobHawk]

Disagree, our pressure rating is high from what I’ve read, and to say the team is soft is wrong.

Aha. The data says...

 

[TONYC3163]

Aha. The data says...

It does indeed. See above, I trust the data more than random BF posters.