List Mgmt. 2025 Draft & Trade Thread - Picks 31, 32, 42, 60 and 71

[Ticky009]

 

[Crust]

I wanted to know the draft date/s so i looked it up on afl.com:

AFL Trade Period Key Dates - AFL.com.au

When does Free Agency begin? How long does the Trade Period go for? Find out on AFL.com.au.

www.afl.com.au

I like the way th AFL acknowledges it:
"The dates for the annual silly season in both the AFL and the AFLW have been confirmed…."

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Those rankings seem about right, probably two in the 20's and one in the 30's, nothing has really changed here

 

[FreeAgent1]

Latest power rankings from FoxFooty:

Best draft prospects ranked 1-50: AFL stars they play like and latest club interest intel

Why four top prospects can’t be picked; biggest bolter in 10 years — AFL Draft Top 50 Rankings

www.foxsports.com.au

22. MAX KING
24. HARRY KYLE
29. LACHLAN CARMICHAEL

HOWEVER, Waterworth has GWS bidding on Kyle (they will likely have pick 15 after the earlier bids), and the Bulldogs bidding on Carmichael, around two picks later...

Speaking of the Giants, they’ve been strongly linked to a potential first-round bid on Kyle.

While most clubs see Carmichael as an early second-round pick, the Swans academy product has fans in the first-round, with multiple industry sources linking the Bulldogs to him.

We still have enough points as long as all other academy and f/s get super early bids as our picks come way in.

Basically as long as it’s the second round when we run outta points we will trade future picks into this years picks with points that teams won’t use.

 

[liz]

This time of year does my head in. On one hand I want the academy lads to slip in the rankings so that we can afford them, but on the other hand, if they slip it would mean that they are not as good as others.

I don't know which way to think...

Draft rankings (or more importantly, where players are actually taken in a draft) is a function of perception of their ability and potential. Their actual ability and potential is not dependent on how recruiters perceive them to be.

(I wanted to describe them as independent variables. They clearly aren't independent. Perception is somewhat influenced by reality. But it's one directional. Reality isn't influenced by perception.)

If you need convincing, do you admire Errol less because he wasn't drafted until the 30s? Is Goodes any less of a legend because he was drafted in the 40s? ROK, Magic, Malceski, Paps etc etc etc???

 

[Callipygian]

Draft rankings (or more importantly, where players are actually taken in a draft) is a function of perception of their ability and potential. Their actual ability and potential is not dependent on how recruiters perceive them to be.

(I wanted to describe them as independent variables. They clearly aren't independent. Perception is somewhat influenced by reality. But it's one directional. Reality isn't influenced by perception.)

If you need convincing, do you admire Errol less because he wasn't drafted until the 30s? Is Goodes any less of a legend because he was drafted in the 40s? ROK, Magic, Malceski, Paps etc etc etc???

Schrödinger's cat says "miaow".

But, truly, I'd say there is also a correlation between perception and reality when human psychology is involved (granted, I imagine the effect is considerably weaker than the other way around).

 

[Dan87]

Kyle making fans and ready to bolt as we make the turn

Exciting yet annoying

Not sneaking through

 

[Wheresbuddy]

We still have enough points as long as all other academy and f/s get super early bids as our picks come way in.

Basically as long as it’s the second round when we run outta points we will trade future picks into this years picks with points that teams won’t use.

I don't think we have too many academy kids on the horizon for next year. Might as well take advantage of this year's bumper crop.

 

[Wheresbuddy]

Draft rankings (or more importantly, where players are actually taken in a draft) is a function of perception of their ability and potential. Their actual ability and potential is not dependent on how recruiters perceive them to be.

(I wanted to describe them as independent variables. They clearly aren't independent. Perception is somewhat influenced by reality. But it's one directional. Reality isn't influenced by perception.)

If you need convincing, do you admire Errol less because he wasn't drafted until the 30s? Is Goodes any less of a legend because he was drafted in the 40s? ROK, Magic, Malceski, Paps etc etc etc???

Conversely, I think the expectations on Campbell will always be higher given where he was taken. If we had picked him up as a cat B rookie, he would be considered a big win.

 

[Adnico26Parker]

We still have enough points as long as all other academy and f/s get super early bids as our picks come way in.

Basically as long as it’s the second round when we run outta points we will trade future picks into this years picks with points that teams won’t use.

By my calculations, we end up with a 700 point deficit by the time a bid on King might come at the start of the 2nd round that we have to match.

Our F2 is only worth approx 533 points.

 

[Bloods86]

I don't think we have too many academy kids on the horizon for next year. Might as well take advantage of this year's bumper crop.

McCartney is mentioned among top prospects, Jenkin brothers were also in the futures squad.

 

[Bandicoot]

By my calculations, we end up with a 700 point deficit by the time a bid on King might come at the start of the 2nd round that we have to match.

Our F2 is only worth approx 533 points.

How on earth do you know what our F2 is worth. We won't until the end of the 2026 season.

 

[liz]

Schrödinger's cat says "miaow".

But, truly, I'd say there is also a correlation between perception and reality when human psychology is involved (granted, I imagine the effect is considerably weaker than the other way around).

Correlation? Correlation isn’t directional.

If you mean influence (I’m loath to use ‘causation’), you’re probably right. People who are told they are good at something are more likely to believe they are, and that can influence outcomes. And maybe be those perceived as having potential attract more attention from coaches so do develop more.

 

[Jeffers]

I’ll be honest, it will take a lil while to get used to seeing this. Glad The Doozy bros are together though.

 

[bedford]

Past players

 

[rustycrate]

Past players

wrong thread

 

[Jeffers]

Past players

Im glad I posted it in this thread for you Bedford

 

[bedford]

wrong thread

Correct , good pick up Rusty

 

[bedford]

Im glad I posted it in this thread for you Bedford

I'd actually seen it on Wills insta before that and was going to post in PP

 

[Kiama Chris]

Draft rankings (or more importantly, where players are actually taken in a draft) is a function of perception of their ability and potential. Their actual ability and potential is not dependent on how recruiters perceive them to be.

(I wanted to describe them as independent variables. They clearly aren't independent. Perception is somewhat influenced by reality. But it's one directional. Reality isn't influenced by perception.)

If you need convincing, do you admire Errol less because he wasn't drafted until the 30s? Is Goodes any less of a legend because he was drafted in the 40s? ROK, Magic, Malceski, Paps etc etc etc???

Gotta love mathematics and logic!
I would say that they are not fully independent.
Perception can influence the environment which then influences the outcome from whatever potential was there. Kind of triangular.

 

[FreeAgent1]

By my calculations, we end up with a 700 point deficit by the time a bid on King might come at the start of the 2nd round that we have to match.

Our F2 is only worth approx 533 points.

The absolute worst case;
GWS take Kyle 12 and Dogs take Carmichael 14 early as possible.

Those will move out by 4 picks (2xGC 1x Brisbane & 1x Carlton).

16 and 19 (18). Our 31,32, 42 and 63 all come in significantly, minus the discount.

Then it’s a guessing game of where King goes, I assume 2026 picks are worth WAYYYY more than 2025 one so we can trade limited value future picks back into picks with points this year, to minimise deficit.

 

[Kiama Chris]

The absolute worst case;
GWS take Kyle 12 and Dogs take Carmichael 14 early as possible.

Those will move out by 4 picks (2xGC 1x Brisbane & 1x Carlton).

16 and 19 (18). Our 31,32, 42 and 63 all come in significantly, minus the discount.

Then it’s a guessing game of where King goes, I assume 2026 picks are worth WAYYYY more than 2025 one so we can trade limited value future picks back into picks with points this year, to minimise deficit.

My head

 

[FreeAgent1]

My head

Honestly what makes this even crazier is if WCE becomes a bit shifty and bids on all four as pick 1,2,3,4 and then takes open players……

 

[sahi11]

The absolute worst case;
GWS take Kyle 12 and Dogs take Carmichael 14 early as possible.

Those will move out by 4 picks (2xGC 1x Brisbane & 1x Carlton).

16 and 19 (18). Our 31,32, 42 and 63 all come in significantly, minus the discount.

Then it’s a guessing game of where King goes, I assume 2026 picks are worth WAYYYY more than 2025 one so we can trade limited value future picks back into picks with points this year, to minimise deficit.

Unless Harry Dean is bid at pick 5 or earlier, Carlton will match with one pick and although their second pick will be pushed out, it will still be before our 2 picks. So, from our perspective no net gain or loss.

After 2xGC 1x Brisbane & 1x Carlton, GWS will have pick 14, Bulldogs 16 and Swans 27,28,37...
If indeed Kyle is bid by GWS (14) and Carmichael by Dogs (17), we will have a points deficit of 372.

This doesn't take into account any potential trades by Swans or Gold Coast/Brisbane/Carlton.

 

[anotherletdown]

The absolute worst case;
GWS take Kyle 12 and Dogs take Carmichael 14 early as possible.

Those will move out by 4 picks (2xGC 1x Brisbane & 1x Carlton).

16 and 19 (18). Our 31,32, 42 and 63 all come in significantly, minus the discount.

Then it’s a guessing game of where King goes, I assume 2026 picks are worth WAYYYY more than 2025 one so we can trade limited value future picks back into picks with points this year, to minimise deficit.

Bids in that range are silly, possible I guess, but silly all the same.

I'd be tempted to pass on both, trade our first 2 picks up for one pick and take whoever they let slide. Bring them back in 3 years time

 

[FreeAgent1]

Bids in that range are silly, possible I guess, but silly all the same.

I'd be tempted to pass on both, trade our first 2 picks up for one pick and take whoever they let slide. Bring them back in 3 years time

I think we played that card last year…