Preview Bye week after 2 weeks... this is stupid......

[iameviljez]

We have maybe once a few years ago

But all recent re-signings are based on Rhys wanting to continue his career

Would that have been the case if Marshall had arrived?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Will be interesting to see if anyone from the Freo game, plays in the VFL game this weekend (Friday evening at home vs Essendon).

Any candidates?

I doubt it. It would be consecutive 6 day breaks if they play VFL then AFL next week. And that's coming off the taxing Gold Coast match.

 

[cats_09]

Would that have been the case if Marshall had arrived?

Yes

Rhys had re-signed before the prelim

Marshall deal wouldn't have been dealt with until October, which was a couple of weeks later

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Let's not kid ourselves, if we keep losing the clearances 28-42, we are going to lose more than we win. Sides with a more explosive midfield setup (hello, Gold Coast) will rip us to bits.

Oh wow, i read the freo stats backwards. That was the one we won though. We won clearances against the suns and got smashed. Where is the signal in this noise?

 

[iameviljez]

Oh wow, i read the freo stats backwards. That was the one we won though. We won clearances against the suns and got smashed. Where is the signal in this noise?

I believe that, over the last few years, it's roughly a 60/40 win/loss for the team that wins clearances.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

I believe that, over the last few years, it's roughly a 60/40 win/loss for the team that wins clearances.

Winning clearances is a lot like inside 50's, comes more down to quality of clearance not how many.

 

[iameviljez]

Winning clearances is a lot like inside 50's, comes more down to quality of clearance not how many.

I respectfully disagree - if you win the inside fifties, then you win something like 70% of all games played since the year 2000. It's pretty much the most consistent statistical indicator of victory in footy.

 

[Mr Meow]

Let's not kid ourselves, if we keep losing the clearances 28-42, we are going to lose more than we win. Sides with a more explosive midfield setup (hello, Gold Coast) will rip us to bits.

Quality of clearances matters more than quantity - as well as having mobile and smart forwards to kick to.

THE single biggest factor in modern football is actually scores from turnover - not clearances/contested possessions etc. How well you use the footy in general play decides games.

Against Gold Coast, we broke even for scores from stoppages. They beat us by almost 10 goals in scores from turnover.

In 2025, almost all of our wins were down to superior ball use. When that element fell apart, we got belted. It will be a barometer for us again throughout 2026.

 

[Lana]

We have plenty of out legs in the team, an extra break after a game is great at helping them get up to speed

 

[Gazza Greatness]

I respectfully disagree - if you win the inside fifties, then you win something like 70% of all games played since the year 2000. It's pretty much the most consistent statistical indicator of victory in footy.

Generally speaking iameviljez: the side that has the more inside 50's is the better side and accordingly has the better quality inside 50's, hence why the 70% percentage figure you kindly and correctly stated wins more games. But that still doesn't dispute the fact that it's the quality of entry that wins games, whether or not having more or less inside 50's. Which then gets to Mr Meow's valid point that TURNOVERS is KING which generally leads to backman not properly set up or they're caught out of position, thus then allowing oppostion for easier inside 50 entries. So yeah, in the end it's all about pressure and quality that wins games.

PS - We all know when we watch a game there are certain opposition players that we don't want getting the ball as their quality of disposal will hurt us, as apposed to other oppostion players that generally won't hurt us. Thank's for input and stats iaeviljez: much appreciated.

 

[Mr Meow]

I respectfully disagree - if you win the inside fifties, then you win something like 70% of all games played since the year 2000. It's pretty much the most consistent statistical indicator of victory in footy.

Clearances are an okay indicator. Inside 50s are better for reasons I'll get to later.

From 2022 onwards there's been a shift in what wins the majority of games, where it is more about quality of ball use as opposed to winning contests or clearances.

Top 2 teams for clearance differential:

2022: Bulldogs, Carlton
2023: Brisbane, Bulldogs
2024: Fremantle, Brisbane
2025: Bulldogs, Brisbane

3 of 8 made it to the grand final. Same story for scores from stoppage differential (3 made it to the grand final).

Top 2 teams for inside 50 differential:

2022: Geelong, Melbourne
2023: Melbourne, Brisbane
2024: Bulldogs, Brisbane
2025: Bulldogs, Gold Coast

3 of 8 made it to the grand final.

Top 2 teams for scores from turnover differential:

2022: Geelong, Richmond
2023: Brisbane, Collingwood
2024: Brisbane, Sydney
2025: Geelong, Adelaide

6 of 8 made it to the grand final.

You want your pressure and zone to be effective in causing turnovers, complimented by elite ball users to burn the opposition on transition when it happens. This will generally make you a strong territory team by default, as you get repeat inside 50 entries and nullify the opponent's capacity to go coast to coast.

When Geelong have lost the pressure game and had ball movement neutralised the past few seasons, we've pretty much always lost. The QF vs GF against Brisbane last year were a perfect illustratiion of that. We forced them into mistakes and punished them to win week 1, then they flipped the script 3 weeks later.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If Stengle and Bowes are both best 23, who comes out of the team from the weekend?
My thinking is Mullin and Close.

Also, love him, and he's been an absolute champ, but is Blitz now depth, same as Kolo and Stanley?

Blitz is nearing the end but we need him for the 2nd ruck role if de koning cant do it properly. Hes not depth until we get someone like Marshall in.

 

[Mr Meow]

Blitz is nearing the end but we need him for the 2nd ruck role if de koning cant do it properly. Hes not depth until we get someone like Marshall in.

Physically he's looked a bit cooked like Close, same as the GF. Hopefully that doesn't continue as we'd be hurt if he ended up having a Hawkins 2024 type of season.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Hauling in Fremantle at home isn't 'top tier' IMO. The two trips to Queensland, and Adelaide away, will be the hardest games in the AFL this year.

Yeah I can’t agree with this.
Coming off a GF hammering, a round 0 hammering and 1st quarter hammering round 1, our confidence and belief was shot.
To claw back from that, even at home is a huge positive that our mindset is still there.

This win could be the driving force we needed.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yeah I can’t agree with this.
Coming off a GF hammering, a round 0 hammering and 1st quarter hammering round 1, our confidence and belief was shot.
To claw back from that, even at home is a huge positive that our mindset is still there.

This win could be the driving force we needed.

Crows are looking ominous for next week but I think they'll find their power forwards powering into each others space at GMHBA. We'll need to be at our best though, and tagging whichever of Rankine/Rachele is in the midfield. I'm backing us.

 

[you pick one]

Marshall we might try again but he would be too old for us to offer a r1 this time.

I was as keen as anybody on getting Marshall but he was doing nothing before he went off this week and I was thinking we may have dodged a bullet there jury still out on him for me now.

 

[iameviljez]

Yeah I can’t agree with this.
Coming off a GF hammering, a round 0 hammering and 1st quarter hammering round 1, our confidence and belief was shot.
To claw back from that, even at home is a huge positive that our mindset is still there.

This win could be the driving force we needed.

I agree that it was a really good win, however, the argument was more so that "our best can match it with anyone" and I don't think it was proof of that.

 

[Generalissimo]

Crows are looking ominous for next week but I think they'll find their power forwards powering into each others space at GMHBA.

I reckon SDK will need to play really well. Henry and Zuth and Stewart aren't quite tall enough to match up on giant boofhead forwards, but for all of SDK's lack of intensity around the ground he doesn't lose too many one-on-one marking contests.

We'll need to be at our best though, and tagging whichever of Rankine/Rachele is in the midfield. I'm backing us.

Shark is absolute kryptonite to that kind of player. We'll be fine.

 

[iameviljez]

I reckon SDK will need to play really well. Henry and Zuth and Stewart aren't quite tall enough to match up on giant boofhead forwards, but for all of SDK's lack of intensity around the ground he doesn't lose too many one-on-one marking contests.

With the exception of Hogan and Cadman last year, we generally handle the big boys pretty well. To be honest, it was basically what won us the game in Adelaide early last year.

 

[CoolCat75]

I was as keen as anybody on getting Marshall but he was doing nothing before he went off this week and I was thinking we may have dodged a bullet there jury still out on him for me now.

We ended up offering out 2025 R1 and future R2 for Marshal (which was overs), which St Kilda rejected. That pick ended up being Harley Barker. So will be interesting to keep track of that over the next 5 years.

My bet is that St Kilda will have sellers remorse by the end of the year, as Marshall stagnates thanks to not being the number 1 ruck, and they could have had 2 draft picks.

Best dream case for us is that Edwards or Conway come on, Harley becomes a player, and we use this years R2, along with other R1 picks for Butters. One can dream hey!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

With the exception of Hogan and Cadman last year, we generally handle the big boys pretty well. To be honest, it was basically what won us the game in Adelaide early last year.

Even Hogan though was playing without anyonw on him. It was the defensive structure from hell

 

[Tony Barber]

Blitz is nearing the end but we need him for the 2nd ruck role if de koning cant do it properly. Hes not depth until we get someone like Marshall in.

If we are seriously going for Butters then we won't be able to trade anyone else in.
But should the Butters thing fall through..... I heard Kenny talking about how well Darcy Fort is playing. In that he's playing so well that he's keeping a young ruck out that Kenny really rates.

No idea who that is. But maybe we look there.

 

[Seeds]

If we are seriously going for Butters then we won't be able to trade anyone else in.
But should the Butters thing fall through..... I heard Kenny talking about how well Darcy Fort is playing. In that he's playing so well that he's keeping a young ruck out that Kenny really rates.

No idea who that is. But maybe we look there.

Any ruck being kept out by darcy fort is not a ruck worth pursuing.

 

[Tony Barber]

Any ruck being kept out by darcy fort is not a ruck worth pursuing.

#runningpatterns

 

[jim boy]

Lots of talk about all the coaches supporting Longmuir privately

Funny how last time (and the only time) when Freo played round one against a team who had played round 0 he didn't complain. I wonder if that was anything to do with the fact that they beat Brisbane comfortably?

Looking at the actual results of round 1 for the last couple of seasons (ignoring the postponed matches) for teams who didn't play in round 0 against teams that did, there are no surprising results, except maybe, Freo beating Brisbane.