Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?

[Fadge]

So you admit you think Ned Long can replace Pendlebury?

Who knows whether it's Ned Long, or a free agents, or a draftee.

But it will be a combination of players who fill the void he leaves, including on field and off field leadership.

How did Collingwood win a flag 3 years after Buckley finished up? Who would have seen that coming?

Strong teams evolve, and Collingwood consistently find a way to do so.

 

[OniAu]

Geelong were finished in 2015 and Dangerfield coming saved them. If Dangerfield didn't join they absolutely wouldn't have been competitive for a few years. Even most Geelong fans who were watching back then would tell you this.

2007-2011 was driven by their drafting record and father son luck over the previous 10 years.

When i talk the geelong model its never based on 1 player rejuvenating a club. It took him 7 years to get a flag. Its the plugging of positions on the field with fringe from other clubs and topping up with FA , not necessarily top 10 players in comp acquisitions.

 

[OniAu]

Was only a few weeks ago they were telling us West and Buller would easily cover Miochek and Cox.

Pendlebury was less than fringe and Long was elite

Also six months since the football landscape implying Checkers and Cox resigining would be a terrible move the pies. But its a great move for Melbourne.

 

[Carringbush2010]

So you admit you think Ned Long can replace Pendlebury?

Naicos has replaced Pendles already, Long is a different player.

 

[Mynamesinuse]

Who knows whether it's Ned Long, or a free agents, or a draftee.

But it will be a combination of players who fill the void he leaves, including on field and off field leadership.

How did Collingwood win a flag 3 years after Buckley finished up? Who would have seen that coming?

Strong teams evolve, and Collingwood consistently find a way to do so.

Don’t even compare that list to this.

 

[OniAu]

The Tiger fans just go by draft pick.

A kid taken with a first round pick is proven talented youth.

But a kid taken with a rookie pick or pick 50 is low quality unproven youth.

You would think theyd learn from Tambling and Franklin scenario

 

[Carringbush2010]

Was only a few weeks ago they were telling us West and Buller would easily cover Miochek and Cox.

Pendlebury was less than fringe and Long was elite

Who is they?

West has played one game and Buller two games, were you expecting them to just show up game one and play to potential?

Pendles is not a first pick mid anymore, he's now a pinch hitter, Naicos has replaced him in the mids.

 

[HeathySure]

Was only a few weeks ago they were telling us West and Buller would easily cover Miochek and Cox.

Pendlebury was less than fringe and Long was elite

as usual you dreamt this

 

[Mynamesinuse]

as usual you dreamt this

You’d think so but unfortunately no

 

[Mr Meow]

Tough exercise....are you listing based on output to date or where you see them in 6 years?

Back at the start of 2020 you would have been laughed at for claiming the following:

• J.Noble will be a star who may play 200 AFL games
• Stephenson will be delisted/retired and not even playing AFL when 27 yrs old
• J.Daicos will not only be better than C.Brown, but he will win a BnF in a premiership year
• the Pies will be ok losing Grundy because Darcy Cameron will be an AA level ruck
• Darcy Moore will be a premiership captain

Like I said, it'll be a good one to revisit. I didn't make any harsh claims about Collingwood's younger players back then, so it has no relevance to my current thoughts.

 

[HeathySure]

You’d think so but unfortunately no

everything you say is made up to suit your narrative.

We could win the flag by 100 points and you would say yeah but it was a crap year or the umpires won it for us.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Like I said, it'll be a good one to revisit. I didn't make any harsh claims about Collingwood's younger players back then, so it has no relevance to my current thoughts.

Then you're an outlier, the mantra back then was 'cliff', like it is now with 99% of the posters itt.

 

[Sherbert99]

Who knows whether it's Ned Long, or a free agents, or a draftee.

But it will be a combination of players who fill the void he leaves, including on field and off field leadership.

How did Collingwood win a flag 3 years after Buckley finished up? Who would have seen that coming?

Strong teams evolve, and Collingwood consistently find a way to do so.

A combination of players to replace Pendlebury? Ok.

And a combination of players to replace Sidebottom too?

Jamie Elliott is 34 this year, might need a combination of players to replace him too.

Darcy Cameron couldn't go with 3-gamer McAndrew on the weekend. Might need a combination for him soon.

What about all of McStay, Membrey and Buller together? They don't seem to be scoring many goals. Might need a combination of players to replace this combination of players.

But I digress I'm sure hawthorn-reject Ned Long will provide everything you lose from these imminent retirees.

 

[Mr Meow]

Then you're an outlier, the mantra back then was 'cliff', like it is now with 99% of the posters itt.

They probably didn't expect a handful of veterans to play quality football for an absurdly long time either though.

None of this stuff is 100% predictable, but the list seemed in a more suitable place to top up 2019-2023 than it does for the 3 upcoming seasons. Landing Butters and King (for example) while a few kids surprise everybody could change that though.

 

[Worm4]

So you admit you think Ned Long can replace Pendlebury?

Ned Long is a Temu midfielder. You get for cheap , but not quite satisfactory

 

[Carringbush2010]

They probably didn't expect a handful of veterans to play quality football for an absurdly long time either though

Of course they didn't, two things that are a constant theme itt.

• Talent (or lack of) without nuance, we've NEVER (in fact throughout our history we've never had except rare seasons) had the best list in this window. Yet we've won a flag from it and for 2/3 of last year we were the terminator of the comp until we mismanged the season and form dropped off at the wrong time and yet STILL almost made the GF - with that shitty list.
• Everyone talks about our unkowns as spuds, no ifs buts or maybes, even though they're unkown.

I can understand it's easy to jump on and say 'spud list with no decent draftees', but that's mostly coz of want and ignoring our forever history of contending when it looks we shouldn't.

I wouldn't be surprised if we actually do fall off a cliff and I wouldn't be surprised if we turn those unkown spuds into players like McCreery etc. who were never supposed to make it.

We've always been a team club, system always beats talent type. Will that continue? It's a wait and see imo, what we SHOULD be doing is game and player development and I suspect that's what we'll see, will that succeed? Like I said wait and see.

 

[Mr Meow]

Of course they didn't, two things that are a constant theme itt.

• Talent (or lack of) without nuance, we've NEVER (in fact throughout our history we've never had except rare seasons) had the best list in this window. Yet we've won a flag from it and for 2/3 of last year we were the terminator of the comp until we mismanged the season and form dropped off at the wrong time and yet STILL almost made the GF - with that shitty list.
• Everyone talks about our unkowns as spuds, no ifs buts or maybes, even though they're unkown.

I can understand it's easy to jump on and say 'spud list with no decent draftees', but that's mostly coz of want and ignoring our forever history of contending when it looks we shouldn't.

I wouldn't be surprised if we actually do fall off a cliff and I wouldn't be surprised if we turn those unkown spuds into players like McCreery etc. who were never supposed to make it.

We've always been a team club, system always beats talent type. Will that continue? It's a wait and see imo, what we SHOULD be doing is game and player development and I suspect that's what we'll see, will that succeed? Like I said wait and see.

True, but a period like 2014-2017 (6th, 11th, 12th, 12th) coming again soon wouldn't exactly be a shock. Some good players could be drafted and developed over that time - along with some free agents - to potentially start contending again in 2030 or soon after - with Daicos around 27-28 years old.

 

[Carringbush2010]

True, but a period like 2014-2017 (6th, 11th, 12th, 12th) coming again soon wouldn't exactly be a shock. Some good players could be drafted and developed over that time - along with some free agents - to potentially start contending again in 2030 or soon after - with Daicos around 27-28 years old.

Exactly, but we don't know, the same was supposed after 21 as well, and the same after 06 05.

Collingwood continue to buck trends (like Geelong), so it wouldn't be surprising it goes the other and we continue to play finals or even contend in the near future.

Wait and see.

 

[bzparkes]

What about all of McStay, Membrey and Buller together?

 

[doppleganger]

Like I said, it'll be a good one to revisit. I didn't make any harsh claims about Collingwood's younger players back then, so it has no relevance to my current thoughts.

Not you Meowy.

Whichever alias this Sherbet character is - Noid, ShereKhan, CDog...all the Richmond "analysts" are the same...they using hindsight to pretend that unrated youth that came good back in 2020 were there for all to see...which is rubbish.

As most Pie fans have said - we constantly evolve the list - we need some kids to step up, and we will also bring in some mature players from other clubs. No different to every season.

And for 2026, we need to sort out our forward line - i think we should actually go small and bring in Hayes and H.Harrison and have DeGoey as FF.

 

[JZTIME!]

Picks you won't or don't have to trade out. see what you wrote below aside from the bolded



The higher the draft picks get the less likely the above is statistically


All most of us are pointing out is that:

1. You don't have any high draft picks or young players from that range coming through. High end picks are important, a PP allowed you to take a player and Pendles (pretty special player) you are still benefitting from those high picks

2. If you did have some high draft picks tassie is coming in and you can't draft from all the states anymore so the pool is so diluted its harder than ever to nail them

3. The chances your mature age recruits and late draft picks becoming stars is low statistically.

4. You guys have been blessed with elite father sons and a handy NGA player in IQ. All who were at the high end of the draft. Do you have more coming through we don't know about

5. Regarding 4, your recent record would not be possible without them. Your continually stating because it all lined up for you once with Father sons, Free Agents and a couple of mature agers, that it will again.

I will eat humble pie if you are still in this position and the same thing happens again over the next 5-6 years. I won't be the only one that will need to. If 90% of us are right though lets hope the 10% are able to eat that same pie

Dopple? Can we get a commitment to eating some humble pie if it doesn't go the way of pies fans?

 

[spky1234]

Yep the hindsight hero stuff is comical

Games played prior to 2020 added below

Quaynor 20yo - 4 games
Murphy 20 - 2 games
J Daicos 21 - 17 games
Noble 23 - 5 games
Cameron 24 - 1 game

None of these players had shown anything, and most were late speculative type picks.

Heading into 2020 the Pies best youth prospects were Stephenson, Sier, C.Brown and some still held out hope that Scharenberg would eventually get fit.

The equivalent players on our 2026 list to the players who had barely shown anything but are used in similar position are

Parker
Reef
Allan
Steele
Steen

And we have Daicos, who won't be slowing down anytime soon.

Because previous youngsters turned out to become great players, current youngsters will?

Where are the Mihocek 40 games, Moore 71 games, De Goey 88, Maynard 97 games, Elliot 105 games, WHE 119 games level players on the current list?

All of those guys hitting their peak along with the Daicos Brothers, Quaynor, Murphy and Cameron.

Whilst having veterans in Pendles, Sidebottom, How and Crisp.

Your young talent is worse, your middle talent is worse, your same core is much older, and your star veterans are phasing out, and you don't have a Nick Daicos being injected into the team again.

How can you possibly think Reef, Allan, Steele, Steen and Parker will become such great players that they keep the pies contending when Pendlebury, Elliot, Sidebottom, Howe and Crisp all retire soon? By the time those youngsters hit 40-50 games and can actually meaningfully contribute, your next set of veterans will be hitting 32-33.

 

[spky1234]

Richmond fans are just trying to convince themselves that their decision to become rubbish and collect spoons whilst hoping draft picks come good is the "smart" decision.

Think it's a bit of delusion from Collingwood fans who think 0 pedigree youngsters who don't even get bled in the senior team will come in and instantly have the same level of impact as aging superstars lol.

We'll come back in 2-3 years and see I suppose.

 

[Dtennent94]

Because previous youngsters turned out to become great players, current youngsters will?

Where are the Mihocek 40 games, Moore 71 games, De Goey 88, Maynard 97 games, Elliot 105 games, WHE 119 games level players on the current list?

All of those guys hitting their peak along with the Daicos Brothers, Quaynor, Murphy and Cameron.

Whilst having veterans in Pendles, Sidebottom, How and Crisp.

Your young talent is worse, your middle talent is worse, your same core is much older, and your star veterans are phasing out, and you don't have a Nick Daicos being injected into the team again.

How can you possibly think Reef, Allan, Steele, Steen and Parker will become such great players that they keep the pies contending when Pendlebury, Elliot, Sidebottom, Howe and Crisp all retire soon? By the time those youngsters hit 40-50 games and can actually meaningfully contribute, your next set of veterans will be hitting 32-33.

The odds are stacked against a Collingwood dynasty in the next 5 years.

 

[spky1234]

Yep the hindsight hero stuff is comical

Games played prior to 2020 added below

Quaynor 20yo - 4 games
Murphy 20 - 2 games
J Daicos 21 - 17 games
Noble 23 - 5 games
Cameron 24 - 1 game

None of these players had shown anything, and most were late speculative type picks.

Heading into 2020 the Pies best youth prospects were Stephenson, Sier, C.Brown and some still held out hope that Scharenberg would eventually get fit.

The equivalent players on our 2026 list to the players who had barely shown anything but are used in similar position are

Parker
Reef
Allan
Steele
Steen

And we have Daicos, who won't be slowing down anytime soon.

The odds are stacked against a Collingwood dynasty in the next 5 years.

If the pies wait 3 years for those blokes to get same game time like in 2020, they can win a flag with 41 year old pendlebury, 38 year old sidebottom, 38 year old Howe, 36 year old elliot, 35 year old Crisp, 34 year old Membrey, 33 year old McStay, 33 year old Cameron, 33 year old Darcy Moore, 33 year De Goey, 32 year old Maynard, 32 year old Crisp, 32 year old Frampton, 31 year old Houston, 31 year old Schultz, 31 year old Houston, 30 year old Josh Daicos 30 year old Perryman and 30 year old Lipinski.

Only 19 30+ veterans, but they'll keep their quality, and most will remain playing and if not be promptly replaced by (assuming they play almost every game for 3 years) 60 gamers in Parker, Reef, Steele, Harrison, Demattia and Steene.

None of these guys have been big contributors so I'm sure if more of the 19 need to be replaced, some random guy off the rookie list WILL become good enough to replace their impact.

Nick Daicos will be the almighty savior and carry the old age home.