Preview Round 5: Lions v Cats

Date:

Saturday, 28 April

Time:

7.45pm local time

Venue:

Gabba

Ticket Info:

Here

TV and Radio Coverage:

All Areas: Live on FoxFooty from 7.30pm
Queensland: Live on 7mate from 7.30pm

Social Media:

TBA

Last time they met:

Cats by 29 points (Round 17, 2011)

Betting Odds

Brisbane $3.95; Cats $1.32

Weather Report

Rain at times. Min 16 Max 23

Preview by PattyKisagun


Taking on the reigning premiers is always a struggle in footy, and heading into our match against the Cats on Saturday night, it’s a struggle that promises to be of great importance.

Our season so far has been up and down, with the side performing more or less as expected against each week’s opposition. If this trend is to continue, we will probably be in for a hiding this weekend. That’s exactly why it needs to change.


We looked good against the Suns. Not very skilful, or fast even – but good nonetheless. Our defensive pressure was, as has been the case all year, exceptional, but our attack left a little to be desired. The one exception to this, though, is Aaron Cornelius.

A player who has been mostly potential rather than performance, Ace put many critics back in their place on Saturday night. Not only did he prove dangerous in a marking contest and sharp in front of goals, but his work up the ground and in general play was far greater than he has ever produced.

If we are to pull off an enormous upset against the Cats this week, he’ll need to play at the same level, or even greater.

Browny will have to lift with him, though. Up until he kicked his first goal in the QClash, JB looked very quiet. Some have speculated that the way the game is played now doesn’t suit him, while others argue he is just past his best. I would never write Jonathan Brown off, though, and I think you’d have to be an idiot to do so. When he got into the game on Saturday, he was destructive. We just need more of it against Geelong if we want to snare a win. If he can team up with Ace, we have a deadly forward combination for the next few years. Throw any one of Longer/Leuy/Merrett/Retzlaff in there too and it looks like a real winner.

The back six didn’t have too much to do in the second half of the Gold Coast match, so will hopefully come into this one fresh. They’ve been a focal point for us this season, with their pressure restricting teams to much fewer scoring shots than they probably deserved (see Freo), and the scoring shots that do exist being executed under intense pressure.

Mitch Golby has been an absolute shining light for us down there in that regard. Not only has he shut down his man on most occasions, but he’s looked calm when under pressure and has almost always made the right decision when clearing the ball out of defence. It seemed clear that he was something special throughout the pre-season, but I’d go as far as to say now that he is an integral part of our defensive structure. And with Geelong’s quality small goal-kickers always threatening, Golby will be invaluable.

Our midfield is starting to become one that does not give away clearances very easily. While Redden is enduring a patch of poor form currently, Rocky, Rich, Black, Raines and Hudson all played brilliantly on Saturday night. If Jack can lift to the form we know he’s capable of, our midfield – an area that for many seasons prior to 2011 had great question marks over it – will really become formidable.

THEM​

Despite a relatively lacklustre start to the season for last year’s premiers, you’d have to be pretty brave to declare them as a spent force. Many have made that mistake in the past few years, only to be proven wrong time and time again. They are still one of the toughest oppositions in the competition, and absolutely must be treated this way if you don’t want to end up on the wrong side of a hundred point thrashing.

Regardless of how strong our midfield may be, there are few groups harder to contend with than those from Geelong. Bartel and Selwood are absolute stars of the game, and Joel Corey is far from useless. Kelly back won’t hurt either. Their skills in the midfield are a class above us, and it’ll take a mighty effort to shut this group down.

The return of Matthew Scarlett bolsters their defence enormously, while Corey Enright and Harry Taylor always make it quite a chore to kick goals. The aforementioned Cornelius will face a much tougher task this week, and don’t think Geelong’s defenders will be treating him lightly.

I would argue, though, that the real strength of this side is their forward line. Just looking at the line-up proves that there isn’t really a weak spot in the entire set up. Chapman, Hawkins, Duncan, Podsiadly and Stokes (no Stevie J though?). One of the most potent forward lines in recent memory, especially now with the development of Tom Hawkins. Merrett may well be needed in defence this week, as this group will be probably the biggest challenge yet this season for our backline.

If we are to win this match, our defenders will need to shut down these forwards as effectively as they did the Gold Coast forwards. Naturally, though, there is quite a class difference between these two attacking line ups, so something of a monumental effort will be needed.

3 Things We Want To See​

1.

A great game by Ace is pivotal. Brown will no doubt be heavily marked, so Cornelius needs to be as dangerous a forward option as he possibly can be. Another game of the same level or greater by him and we are well on our way to a massive upset.

2.

A full game by him in the midfield is vital. Keep him there.

3.

Game number 300. Let’s give him a reason to smile.

3 Things We Don’t Want To See​

1.

Such a low attendance for a QClash was very disappointing. Let’s hope the win will bring some fans back. The boys will need all the support they can get to win this one.

2.

Even if we aren’t able to get over the line, we need to be competitive. A thrashing in this one and spirits will fall dramatically.

3.

Many of us are still haunted about the last Geelong game. Enough said.

Team Changes​

Lions: Polkinghorne and Beams are probably good chances to come back in. It’d be surprising if neither of them were named. Who comes out though is a little harder. Harwood, Sheldon, Lester and Crisp would be the four most likely, but that would be quite unfair on them after relatively good games. Longer, Green and Karnezis must also be close, with Billy probably the most likely to make it in this week if it’s determined that Hudson needs support. Logic would suggest that Bartlett is still a few weeks off at the least, despite the hype building around him.

Cats: Kelly and Scarlett will probably be the two big ins for them, with both adding a great deal to Geelong’s line up. It’s hard to imagine they’ll make too many more changes this week, but after three consecutive close-ish games, they may elect to bring in some fresh legs with another change or two. With the Demons next week, don’t expect them to be resting anyone for the trip up here or taking us lightly – they’ll be coming at us with all that they can muster.


I think this game will be surprisingly close. I believe that we are on a par with Richmond at the moment in terms of development, but slightly ahead in terms of overall potential – and look how much the Tigers pushed Geelong in Geelong. No doubt they’ll be wanting to make a statement this week, and with returning stars it won’t be easy at all.

Prediction​

In saying all that, though, I’m tipping the Lions by 14. I never usually back us in matches like this, but have got a feeling about this weekend – that’s really all I can put it down to. Feel free to quote this and laugh at me on Sunday morning if we lose.

GO LIONS!

Thanks to PattyKisagun for another great preview!

Top preview PattyK.

So we get another chance to take on one of the better teams. Lets hope we give a better account of ourselves this time.

Really there are quite a lot of factors in our favour. Second game at home in a row, after being able to sleepwalk through the last few minutes against GC, with very few injuries, against a team coming off a tight win, on a six day break, missing a bloke who has caused us problems in the past. Also not certain that Kelly will get up for the trip, although Scarlett is obviously a big in.

It goes without saying that the Cats' 22 is a lot better than ours right now, but given the circumstances I reckon we're a chance to pinch it. Surely we won't fade in the last quarter once again. We really have no excuse for that this week.

Maguire and Patfull likely to start on Jpod and Tomahawk. That's a bit of a worry, for me. We'll need them to be at their best.

Great preview, PattyK, good read and generally the same thoughts that I was having.

It's quite interesting how before last week Cornelius couldn't even get a game and most people here thought he was unfit and some thought he was going to get cut at the end of the year. Now it seems the role he plays as a foil to Brown is such a vital one that it is basically paramount for us to get the win. How things have changed so quickly!

Still thats a lot of pressure for a 21yo KPF whos played less then 20 games. I think the main difference will be how quality the ball comes out of the midfield, if those guys can break even and actually look to hit up our leading forward targets, then Cornelius and Brown will get the job done.

Our season so far has been up and down, with the side performing more or less as expected against each week’s opposition. If this trend is to continue, we will probably be in for a hiding this weekend. That’s exactly why it needs to change.

Click to expand...

Yep, consistency is THE key word PK, you’ve done it with another Great Preview, now it’s up to the boys on the park!

Constant poor second halves = a loss. Our inability to score in 2nd halves – a pair of ONLY 2 goals 3 behinds - whether it be fitness or mind-set has led, IMO significantly to a loss.

Conversely, a pair of 2nd half bags of 10:9 and 10:5 will ALWAYS help gain a win no matter who the opposition is. The scoring patterns in Geelongs last two games suggest two predominantly different games plans last week against Richmond the scoring was low with each team only having 20 scoring shots at goal but in the previous round against North at the docklands it was more of an attacking shot-out with both side having 30+ scoring shots.

I think in this weeks Gabba game Geelong will again focus on quick clearances and fast ball movement – the question to ask is will Voss set up to play a defensive Freo type game or hope the skill and confidence found in the second half against the Suns carries through to round 5?

I think the former but personally believe that against Geelong's bigger bodies we would have a better chance by getting the ball quickly up forward to the likes of Brown, ACE and Sauce.

Like PK, I’m also going for an upset – I’m a little, albeit only by a point, less confident than you PattyKisagun - Lions by 13pts... lol

Great write-up, PattyK. Love your work.

This is a great opportunity to showcase our progression so far. The trick as has been mentioned is to perform to the level that we can. Our best can test Geelong in their current form, but whether we do or not is a question for a crystal ball, not my soft squishy brain.

The midfield is where the test starts. Logic tells us that their size, skill, fitness and experience will trump our young (and very old) group, but we have seen in recent times that when they click our young mids with Blackie as a rudder can be a driving force. We have seen their consistency improve slowly over time as well.

This may well be the game that sends Big Red back down the ground. He gives every task assigned to him a good solid crack, and I'm glad we have him at our club. Of course I would be happy if he stayed forward, too. Just having him around has started to have a positive effect on the team, I think.

I hope the boys put on a great show for Blackie and do their utmost to support him. He strongly deserves it.

I will be there, right on the 50 metre line in GA section 20 or 21. I'll be the dork with the paddlepop scarf on. See you there!

It's been said a thousand times,but Merrett has to play on Hawkins or Pods. If Geelong gets enough ball into their forward 50, Patfull doesnt have the closing speed and spoiling ability of Merrett,needed for either of those Geelong forwards.

Great preview, PattyK, good read and generally the same thoughts that I was having.

It's quite interesting how before last week Cornelius couldn't even get a game and most people here thought he was unfit and some thought he was going to get cut at the end of the year. Now it seems the role he plays as a foil to Brown is such a vital one that it is basically paramount for us to get the win. How things have changed so quickly!

Still thats a lot of pressure for a 21yo KPF whos played less then 20 games. I think the main difference will be how quality the ball comes out of the midfield, if those guys can break even and actually look to hit up our leading forward targets, then Cornelius and Brown will get the job done.

Nice work PattyK.

Stevie J suspended for this match helps us although Patfull would have been a good chance to go to him and he has been in good form defensively. Now I am not sure there is a great match up for Joel. Pods and Hawkins are power forward types and personally I would put Merrett and Maguire on them. Would we drop one of the backs and bring in another true forward option like Karnezis?

I would definately consider it as keeping their backs honest is one of the keys to doing well against Geelong. Scarlett back will definately help them but Mackie might be out. Josh Hunt being back helps their structure and allows Enright to play a more attacking role. Enright was very quiet for the first three games without Hunt but returned to his best on the weekend. I would expect Sheldon or whoever is playing the defensive forward role to sit on him. Geelong have a fairly tall defensive unit and we need to have goal scoring options up there to keep them from clogging the space and taking it away easily. Merrett I think will be needed down back so I bring Karnezis in.

In the midfield Bartel has been great for Geelong as he usually is. Selwood has been quietish as has Chappy. Geelong have brought a lot of young players into their side and I think a tipping point has been reached where they are now a different team to what they were. The young players are not of the same quality as those they have replaced and the experienced guys are having trouble making up the difference. The Cats are still a good side but they are capable of being taken now. The question is whether we have the quality to do so.

On the young Cats players I, Christensen looks like he is finally back to full fitness and is one we have to keep an eye on. Horlin-Smith is another who I like and unlike a few of their players like T Hunt, Guthrie, Duncan and Stringer he is actually pretty clever with the ball. Motlop has been quietly having a good start to the year, not getting a massive amount of ball but getting enough and using it with class when he does. He is one the Cats fans would be very happy about.

Sanchez365 said:

It's quite interesting how before last week Cornelius couldn't even get a game and most people here thought he was unfit and some thought he was going to get cut at the end of the year. Now it seems the role he plays as a foil to Brown is such a vital one that it is basically paramount for us to get the win. How things have changed so quickly!

Click to expand...

I think what I was trying to say, and may not have conveyed as well as I'd have liked, was that ace needs another good game not just for our side but also himself. We've all seen his potential for years now, and have continually been frustrated by his inability to turn it into a strong performance on the field, but now that he has been able to do that, both us and him really need it not to be just a one off.

We now know what he can contribute. He's got the potential to be a match winner. And while he's still relatively young, I hope for his sake that he's broken through in a way after the suns match. And if he can play like that, he is no doubt vital to our line up. Only time will tell.

Cheers for all the feedback as well, was a pleasure to write!

Quigley said:

Stevie J suspended for this match helps us although Patfull would have been a good chance to go to him and he has been in good form defensively. Now I am not sure there is a great match up for Joel.

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It depends who they bring in to replace Stevie J. If they bring in a third tall like a Gillies or Brown, then we need 3 talls down back.

POBT said:

It depends who they bring in to replace Stevie J. If they bring in a third tall like a Gillies or Brown, then we need 3 talls down back.

Click to expand...

Fair point.

I was thinking they would just bring in another runner like Byrnes but they could certainly go with a tall. For purely personal interest I would like them to bring Kersten in given I was very disappointed we overlooked him this year but I have no idea how he has been going and whether he deserves to be selected.

Would be happy having a 3rd tall like Karni in. He would demand a decent defender and keep them honest. Run with Brown, Acorn and Karni up forward, Merrett, Goose and Patfull down back.

I will be there - Go Lions!

Now is as good a time as any to knock Geelong off. They deserve to be favorites but if we play out best footy there is no reason we can't be up at the final siren. Win on Saturday and it should give us enough between the ears to e ultra competitive for the following 2 rds. Hoping for a good old fashioned shootout!!

Quigley said:

Fair point.

I was thinking they would just bring in another runner like Byrnes but they could certainly go with a tall. For purely personal interest I would like them to bring Kersten in given I was very disappointed we overlooked him this year but I have no idea how he has been going and whether he deserves to be selected.

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Fairly sure I read that Brown kicked a bag in the VFL recently. I haven't heard anything about Kersten.

POBT said:

Fairly sure I read that Brown kicked a bag in the VFL recently. I haven't heard anything about Kersten.

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Just reading on the Cats board that Kersten played his first game in the VFL last weekend after missing with injuries. Kicked a couple.

Longer has to come back in for this game as good as Merrett has been up the ground I don't like the idea of Patfull going to Pods or T-Hawk makes us vulnrable need Merrett down back for this one!

Milk Steak said:

It's been said a thousand times,but Merrett has to play on Hawkins or Pods. If Geelong gets enough ball into their forward 50, Patfull doesnt have the closing speed and spoiling ability of Merrett,needed for either of those Geelong forwards.

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Yeah, for this game I'd like to see Merrett shifted back with Retzy brought in, which probably squeezes Lester out.

Green in for Sheldon because I think he offers more.

Doubt any of that will happen though.

Which brings me to my next point.

Is there any chance that when teams are announced this week we could dial down the angst just a little?

Yes, everyone has their favourite player, and yes it is disappointing to see them dropped or not promoted, but as was reinforced last week, we don't have all the info to go on (and yes, that's a whole other discussion). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe neither O'Brien or Beams played reserves and Longer really struggled to play out the game. Maybe, just maybe the coaching team know more about the list than we do.

I'm not trying to censor people. I actually quite enjoy sensible selection debate. Express your disappointment, just try to dial back on the histrionics.

whatboutbob said:

Yeah, for this game I'd like to see Merrett shifted back with Retzy brought in, which probably squeezes Lester out.

Green in for Sheldon because I think he offers more.

Doubt any of that will happen though.

Which brings me to my next point.

Is there any chance that when teams are announced this week we could dial down the angst just a little?

Yes, everyone has their favourite player, and yes it is disappointing to see them dropped or not promoted, but as was reinforced last week, we don't have all the info to go on (and yes, that's a whole other discussion). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe neither O'Brien or Beams played reserves and Longer really struggled to play out the game. Maybe, just maybe the coaching team know more about the list than we do.

I'm not trying to censor people. I actually quite enjoy sensible selection debate. Express your disappointment, just try to dial back on the histrionics.

Click to expand...

Hmmmmm.......nup

Quigley said:

Hmmmmm.......nup

Click to expand...

I agree that Merrett has to go back this week but then Lester either has to go forward, or he gets dropped. Lester had a great game against GC in the back line.

Personally I would send Merrett down back and have one of Lester, Karnezis or Retzlaff come into the side in the forward line. The other 2 that don't get selected can play reserves. Personally I would go with Retzlaff. Karnezis to play a bit more in the reserves. I am a massive fan of Lester and I think he has played well this year but I believe that Retzlaff can provide more then him up forward and their isn't a spot for him in the backline. However, if Lester or Karnezis were selected to play up forward it would not bother me one bit.

I would like Beams to come back in for Sheldon if fit. If he is not then bring in Longer.

What do people think of Harwood coming out for Longer if Beams is fit and takes Sheldons spot? Nobody else deserves to lose their spot and I honestly think Harwood has done enough to keep his spot as well but it would help us this week I think.

B Drummond Merrett McGrath
HB Golby Maguire Patfull
C Hanley Raines Adcock
HF Polec Brown Beams
F Cornelius Retzlaff Banfield
R Hudson Black Rockliff
I Longer/Harwood Redden Rich
S Crisp

Thoughts?

chopperduck said:

Would be happy having a 3rd tall like Karni in. He would demand a decent defender and keep them honest. Run with Brown, Acorn and Karni up forward, Merrett, Goose and Patfull down back.

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Problem is that Longer will need to come back in if Merrett is down back on Hawkins or Podsiadly.

POBT said:

It depends who they bring in to replace Stevie J. If they bring in a third tall like a Gillies or Brown, then we need 3 talls down back.

Click to expand...

Stevie J challenging at the tribunal. Boo!