Player Watch #2 Jacob Hopper

[Wooden Robot]

We paid way overs for a B-grader, so sadly we need to live with it.
As far as expectations, he delivered what you'd expect from a B-grader, who's never really been a consistent force.
A mix of some good ones, a couple of really good ones and a bunch of average and poor ones.
When you accept what you truly have - a B-grader - you are content with B-grade output

 

[Vassp]

Umm , wasn’t until a couple of weeks ago Tarranto like 4th in the Brownlow betting ?

I would call him a success this year


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YEAH, I really follow what the brains trust think, just look at our rules for a great example of THINGS that don't make sense.

 

[Coach_Required]

Can we trade him to Melbourne? Surely he is an upgrade from Parish who apparently the Dees are interested. LOL

 

[Karp3_dm]

Hopper is fine
Not his fault we paid A+ grade pick value for him
He aint no superstar but he’s quality

 

[living_in_syd]

I thought at the time we were getting a big bodied extractor like cripps. Oh wells. Overpaid.

 

[richoplzbreed]

He had a few injuries interrupt his season and was basically a b player with a couple of a games. It's not his fault the pick ended up being 6th. I wouldn't be surprised if all the noise about Taranto doing so well and a lot considering him a bust spurs him on to have a huge pre season and hopefully catapults into a huge 2024 and onwards. With the CBA about to skyrocket $700k P/A won't be very much anyway.

Wish the club would stop taking 7th year players though. Tom Lynch was the greatest steal ever costing nothing picks wise. Yarran, Hampson, Prestia and Hopper all taken as 7th year players costing 2x 1st rounders, and 5 or 6 2nd rounders.

Hopefully the club targets FA in future including Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

25

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

, Noah Anderson

15

Noah Anderson

Age

25

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

, Rowell. Would be nice to get another Lynch and keep our picks. Or target 3rd or 4th year players so the picks they cost are offset by getting them as 21/ 22 yo so you get another 80+ games out of them.

Besides look how terrible Graham has been and Sonsies still not yet proven. Soon we'll be glad of Taranto and Hopper.

 

[KimKershaw1959]

There will be ocassions next year when we get slaughtered but say aren't we glad we got Hopper. He got 15 votes in his last full season (2021) The bloke can play

 

[Vassp]

LOL, you can only say this through negative eyes.

I did say awful for what we paid, I mean you have hundreds of posters in here having a go at our kids with huge expectations and they've had minimum game time and they're on small wages. When you put things into perspective I believe I am spot on.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Its officially pick 6 and some.

Free agent too this year Lol.

Nobody would be getting him for only $700k/year if he was a free agent. It'd be at least $800k, if not $850k/year.

 

[Daka]

^ and there would be a lot more competition if he was free agent, we needed midfield depth with what has gone out of the club the last couple of years.
there weren't many options out there & isn't this year either.

 

[Muddiemoose]

He was never staying anyway so wouldn’t of made it to trigger his free agency
Geelong or one of the other interested clubs would of just picked him up instead

Giants bull Jacob Hopper tipped to join Geelong, Tigers still in race: AFL trade news

The race for the contracted midfielder's services is said to have narrowed significantly.

www.zerohanger.com

 

[Daka]

He was never staying anyway so wouldn’t of made it to trigger his free agency
Geelong or one of the other interested clubs would of just picked him up instead

Giants bull Jacob Hopper tipped to join Geelong, Tigers still in race: AFL trade news

The race for the contracted midfielder's services is said to have narrowed significantly.

www.zerohanger.com

I don't mind the criticism Hopper & Taranto get, it's up to them at end of the day to change the narrative of them.
I can see why the club went after them we needed depth with what was going out, I can see all sides.

I won't criticize them, but I am also not going to defend them anymore. I can see knocks on both of them.

 

[A Tiger 4 lyf]

No we couldn't have, he would've gone to the cats or pies last year if we didn't get him.

Oh well


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[sawyer]

 

[RJK Tiger]

I’m not sure I can take much more of this negative commentary. Something has to give . You’ll have a ducking stroke …

I wont, but some here might.

From my point of view......"better out, than in"

 

[Noidnadroj]

We gotta back our players and we gotta get behind Hopper. Came to a new system and has been unlucky with injuries so no doubt it takes a while to adapt. When he's going his class is indisputable, but fk idk if hes worth pick 6 that would be pretty handy I cant lie. Bloke is 26 so hes in his prime now, we need him firing next 3-4 years before he surpasses his prime stage.

With academy picks and compensation etc … it’ll be pick #9 or so. It’s a single pick. And whatever that pick brought us they won’t be better than Hopper until 2026 at the very best, and there’s a good chance they’d never end up better than Hopper will be.


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[Noidnadroj]

A lot can happen in 6 years no point trying to decide the trade a boom or a bust either way at this point

No doubt his year was underwhelming but acting like the sky is falling is just as stupid as assuming pick 6 would have drafted us a gun when it probably would have just drafted us a player in similar caliber to Hopper (who was drafted as pick 7)

Balance is needed. Mitch McGovern looked like the worst trade in history. He’s now a key figure in a flag push and just signed another 2-year deal.

If he helps them win a final or two this year or even a flag in the next few seasons, then the trade was great despite the first 5-years of the deal looking like an epic train wreck.

A fully fit Hopper is a great player. Anyone who doesn’t know this obviously never watched GWS from 2019-2021 and is basing their opinion on his interrupted season in 2023.


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[Noidnadroj]

True - i misread what you said, thought you were saying the teams year not Hopper directly.

I honestly found his year to have a very low impact on the teams fortunes. when you are giving away a top 6 pick - you have to get back a bloke who can impact results, not a midfield plodder.

The Lions have up pick 6, 19 + 55 for Lachie Neale ffs - we gave up 90% of that for Hopper who was coming off a 12 month injury.

There is no f-ing way Hopper had the reputation of Neale when we traded for him. Its bonkers that supporters were laughing at Carlton for getting Cerra who is younger and better, but trying to reason the Hopper trade. It has no logic im sorry

We didn’t give up pick #6 at all. We gave away a future first. We lost a final to the Lions at the GABBA by 2-points. We lost 5 games last year by a kick. We were getting back Dusty and added TT to our midfield. Hopper could be the extra icing to take us to a flag.

So nobody was predicting it was pick #6. It was a future first - there’s a big difference because nobody can predict the future. We knew GC had multiple academy players plus a couple of father/sons were coming. So we probably thought absolute worst case we finish 10th which is pick #9, that ends at #13-14. And if we have a great year the pick could end up around #20.

List management is entirely guesswork and making predictions. We backed ourselves to have a good year in 2023 as every logical pointer said we should when adding Martin, TT and Hopper and losing no-one. It didn’t work out.

But it’s an important distinction. We gave up a future first (and 31), not pick #6.

I agree had we have known it was pick #6 we wouldn’t have done the same deal. But we didn’t.

But let’s wait and see what Hopper, Steely Green and Campbell (taken with picks we got back) do before calling it a massive fail. Way too early.


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[RJK Tiger]

We didn’t give up pick #6 at all. We gave away a future first. We lost a final to the Lions at the GABBA by 2-points. We lost 5 games last year by a kick. We were getting back Dusty and added TT to our midfield. Hopper could be the extra icing to take us to a flag.

So nobody was predicting it was pick #6. It was a future first - there’s a big difference because nobody can predict the future. We knew GC had multiple academy players plus a couple of father/sons were coming. So we probably thought absolute worst case we finish 10th which is pick #9, that ends at #13-14. And if we have a great year the pick could end up around #20.

List management is entirely guesswork and making predictions. We backed ourselves to have a good year in 2023 as every logical pointer said we should when adding Martin, TT and Hopper and losing no-one. It didn’t work out.

But it’s an important distinction. We gave up a future first (and 31), not pick #6.

I agree had we have known it was pick #6 we wouldn’t have done the same deal. But we didn’t.

But let’s wait and see what Hopper, Steely Green and Campbell (taken with picks we got back) do before calling it a massive fail. Way too early.


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And the future pick was Pick 6


But you are right, its not pick 6 we gave up. As we got that pick with Hopper playing.


So in reality we gave up maybe pick 3, or 4 for him as we surely lose a few of those very close wins without Big J-Hop. 3/4s of our wins were literally bee's dick results & replacing J-Hops minutes with more from Graham, Pickett & Dow in the middle - we would have lost most of those close ones. Because he has been so powerful, brave and impressive.

Thanks for pointing that out buddddy

Pick 3,12,19 & 28 for Hopper & Taranto. Jeesh. Everytime i look at it, it just seems to get worse!!

 

[juss]

Not a fan so far, but prepared to see how it starts to play out after he's had a full preseason and is roaring fit with us. Sometimes players need time to adjust so let's see next year.

 

[Tygrys]

Some trades pay off, some don't. As a team we were confident in making finals and honestly top 4. We didn't lose by more than 6 points post about round 6-8 in 2022 so adding Taranto and Hopper to address our biggest weakness seemed a good gamble. Unfortunately we also needed Lynch to not get a season ending injury in round 4.

If we make a prelim or further than the first rounder is more around 20 and it's a steal. You win some, you lose some.

Many people were very against giving up pick 6 for Prestia, yet that paid off on the biggest way x100.

We had a once in a lifetime team. You swing big on teams like that, not coward out.

The previous year we had failed to make finals, last year we rebounded to an elimination final and exited in the first week. In many ways following Hawthorn's post dynasty trajectory. Not of complete collapse but sputtering demise. Your stars start to age, the wins become more of a struggle, you start finishing lower down the ladder etc. Also many were convinced Jack was cooked and were convinced he shouldn't play another season. Why was this a concern because if Tom Lynch went down Reiwoldt would have to assume the number one mantle as key forward. And true whilst no one predicted that Lynch would have been absent for the almost the whole season, likewise no-one would have bet with Lynch's injury history that he might not miss part of the season, perhaps a lengthy part. There was actually a thread talking about what would be the most likely reasons for our season going wrong ie not winning the premiership. The most popular reason forwarded was Tom Lynch going down. The fact that we were so enormously dependent on 'one player' with Lynch's injury history should have rung deafening alarm bells about where we might finish on the ladder.

As for Prestia. The comparison is overblown. Hopper is not as good as Prestia, he was not as young and he cost us more. Moreover, when Prestia came to the club we had a generational back man in Rance and our elite stars Reiwoldt, Cotchin, Martin (all first round draft picks, something we most likely won't have this year) were all in their prime. When Hopper comes to the club they are all in their thirties, with the accompanying wear and tear of being six years older and not the players they once were. They were the core of the 'once in a lifetime team' and the trade reflected questionable list management at the very least. Again different player, different era, different trade.

So no it was not a 'good gamble' it was high risk, and all the stuff I have just written is not being wise after the fact. People were expressing these concerns when the trade was proposed. Taranto was a good trade, even for someone that loves the draft, given his age, talent, the fact that we knew what we were trading, it was not something you could criticise., However, Hopper was a lousy one and the two need not be conflated. You could have done one without the other, but we got reckless. I don't blame Hopper, he is ok, just not pick 6 and 31 ok, and I wish I was wrong. I have saved places on the wall in chronological order for more framed memorabilia eg WEG etc just in case I was. I am however dirty on Hardwick though. No doubt he was big on selling us a vision when we traded in Hopper and yet he still bails out halfway through the year and we don't have a pick 6. I honestly hope he chokes on his three elite academy selections and I wish him no success. How he left the club will leave a sour taste in my mouth for quite a few years to come.

 

[Tygrys]

Hopper has had one underwhelming but not shocking season from 7 he is contracted for. We know some of the reason for this is beyond his control, to do with injuries. He was having a tremendous game against Crows early in the season before he hurt his leg. So who knows what difference that made.

My issues with your post are:

1. you are judging Hopper based on one season of a long term deal. If we never see better from him than his 2023 form, then fair enough, but he has a long way to go before we can make a sound evaluation of the trade for him.

2. you are quoting picks 6 and 31 as his price in draft picks. So far the deal is pick 34 in the 2022 draft with 49 and 55 coming back our way. Picks 49 and 55 combined are probably worth about pick 42 so basically we moved down 8 draft places from 34 to 42. That is barely a cost. The unknown part is where this year's pick actually ends up. But it looks like being 8-9 at least once insertions are made.

3. finishing low on the ladder is always a risk when trading a future pick, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a risk worth taking. For us to finish there required our only prime key forward to miss the whole season, an overall bad run with injuries and suspensions, and a really tough draw, getting 5 of the top 9 teams twice and only 1 of the bottom 9 twice(albeit the bottom team.) It was not unreasonable to think the future pick had an expected value of about pick 15 after insertions for f/s, FA, Academy picks.

Had we copped up a top 5 pick for Hopper or paid him massive overs salary wise then your points may be more valid as well. But he was worth $600-650k salary as a bare minimum based on his record and is on not much more than that. And he was similarly worth a pick in the mid teens as a bare minimum and that was roughly the expected value of what we paid for him at the time of the transaction.

You are posting as if Hopper's performance in 2023 is his expected performance in future seasons, and it isn't. We end up paying a bit over for him due to the lower than expected finishing position this year but not by the amount you are making out.

All he would need to do is return to his long term average form next season and the trade would be on track to be fair value.

I am not going to go through, each and every point except to summarise again. I am not basing it on just one season. I am basing it on a career. At his age, with his injury history and his talent/skill set he is not worth picks 6 and 31 and a seven year contract. Doesn't mean he is crap, but for what we paid for him is he, just not a good deal.

Likewise, witnessing the decline and ageing of our stars, how our performances had become more erratic and how we were so dependent one star player injury prone player in Lynch. Not everyone thought that we were on the cusp of another premiership tilt. And contrast when Lynch went down with when we lost Rance in 2019, one of the greatest defenders the game had seen. We were still able to cover for him. This was not the same team, yet we still bet our first rounder it was

And finally even if he is great next season and the season after, he will be 27. Again that's 3 maybe 4 years of prime Hopper when we will not be winning a premiership vs some young kid who could give us over a decade of service and be around for our next tilt at a premiership, and whose best could well match Hopper's or well exceed it. Yes a gamble, the devil you know as opposed to the devil you don't, but a gamble aimed at assembling a premiership team as opposed to simply trying not to finish bottom four.

Again we bet a future first rounder AND pick 31. And we knew the odds and we lost and imho we should have known better. PS Last post on this for a while, taking up too much time

 

[Vassp]

I am not going to go through, each and every point except to summarise again. I am not basing it on just one season. I am basing it on a career. At his age, with his injury history and his talent/skill set he is not worth picks 6 and 31 and a seven year contract. Doesn't mean he is crap, but for what we paid for him is he, just not a good deal.

Likewise, witnessing the decline and ageing of our stars, how our performances had become more erratic and how we were so dependent one star player injury prone player in Lynch. Not everyone bought that we were on the cusp of another premiership tilt. And contrast when Lynch went down with when we lost Rance in 2019, one of the greatest defenders the game had seen. We were still able to cover for him. This was not the same team, yet we still bet our first rounder it was

And finally even if he is great next season and the season after, he will be 27. Again that's 3 maybe 4 years of prime Hopper when we will not be winning a premiership vs some young kid who could give us over a decade of service and be around for our next tilt at a premiership, and whose best could well match Hopper's or well exceed it. Yes a gamble, the devil you know as opposed to the devil you don't, but a gamble aimed at assembling a premiership team as opposed to simply trying not to finish bottom four.

Again we bet a future first rounder AND pick 31. And we knew the odds and we lost and imho we should have known better. PS Last post on this for a while, taking up too much time

Why cant our posters see this? SPot on,

 

[jthanos]

Unfortunately his output was a let down this year due to injuries.

Hopefully in the long run he will prove to be a positive for what we gave up.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Why cant our posters see this? SPot on,

Do you enjoy watching Richmond play, just wondering.