2006 Draft profiles (mojo31)

[Gumby]

I don't think we will be taking Gumbleton at all, that just defeats the purpose of picking Kennedy last year.

I also don't think there is that much of a gap between the top 7 or so prospects, there isn't a huge talent gap, so even if he was the best available by the time our pick came, the recruiters will probably prefer to pass on him and just go down very very slightly in terms of talent to address team needs.

For e.g If Gumbleton was ranked 6th and Selwood was 7th for our recruiters and we had pick 6 and both were available, we'll probably opt for Selwood as he will only be marginally lower than Gumbleton and we address our midfield deficiencies instead of doubling up in the forward line.

Why?

Gumbleton is considered the best draft prospect by many good judges. He is a dead set gun, not only the best forward by a mile but a very good all round tall player. Can play ruck also and is 200cm according to the Peel Thunder website.

I'd hope we would take him if available come our pick. Selwood I rate extremely high but I would balk at taking at this stage.

 

[Gumby]

For me at the moment:
1. Gumbleton
2. Sellar
3. Gibbs
4. Hansen
5. Could be out of a numbers of players - Riewoldt, Jetta, Selwood, Leuenberger, Thorp, Collard to name but a few.

On Hansen, he is a gun and very versatile. Has all the tools to be a gun at AFL level in the future in the KPP slots. However, drafting him to play defense as a FB/CHB isn't a wise choice. He can definitely play there and play there well but it might just be as a forward at CHF/FF that he plays most of his career in the AFL. Think Nick Riewoldt. Played his 1st year at CHB (won the Rising Star award) and has played mostly as a CHF since then. He could still be a very good CHB but it is as a CHF that he is best suited and the biggest headache for opposing coaches and players.

A possible FB/CHB that might just play most of his career there at AFL level could be Eric Mackenzie from WA.

At the Blues we have Bower, Edwards, Flint and Hartlett to look forward to developing down back. Hansen, Thorp, Riewoldt to name a few could play there but may end up forward much sooner than later.

Nevertheless, we should choose the best available talent when it's our turn. Whether that be Hansen, Gibbs, Gumbleton, Sellar, Selwood, Jetta or Thorp or someone else then that's fine by me.

 

[Jeremias]

mojo, love the work- keep it up!

would like your opinion on carlton's drafting plan at the end of the year.

we need the following:
1. inside midfielder-imo selwood.
2. tall full back-??????
3 ruckman-sellar, gumbleton or leurenberger
4. small/medium half back or back pocket-brock obrien?

who should we be looking at in these positions?

thanks.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

LOve your work here Mojo, as i've read through your profiles a few times but never had any questions to ask...until now.

What do you know about Josh Kennedy's(sandringham) little brother Ben who has been picked for the U16 Vic side?

 

[blaisee]

Mojo,

reading your stuff is very very enlightening.

Could you please do an analysis of the tigers list and what we need to draft.

Would really be appreciated.

Gumbleton or Hansen sound ideal!

cheers

and keep up the good work..awesome insights!

 

[Bentleigh]

Mojo,

reading your stuff is very very enlightening.

Could you please do an analysis of the tigers list and what we need to draft.

Would really be appreciated.

Gumbleton or Hansen sound ideal!

cheers

and keep up the good work..awesome insights!

One of:

Lachlan Hansen
Scott Gumbleton
Mitchell Thorp
James Sellar

Worst comes to worse I'd take Bryce Gibbs

 

[mojo31]

One of:

Lachlan Hansen
Scott Gumbleton
Mitchell Thorp
James Sellar

Worst comes to worse I'd take Bryce Gibbs or Joel Selwood

So you want one of the best 6 players in the draft?

 

[mojo31]

Mojo you are a Legend . great Porfiles and they are so detailed as well. Good on ya for sharing your profiles. I'm just wondering about Bachar Houli, he was very highly rated last year, do you think he has been overated on this board? You have him 16th in your rankings.

Just injuries with him. If they dont play regularly its hard tyo judge them. He missed the U18 Championships last year also to get a better handle on him.
No doubt he is a class above TAC football when fit and in form but there are question marks on him.
16 is as much reflection on the quality of the draft as of him. If it was 2005 he would be top 10 easiliy. More like top 5.

But he has to develop this year. Cant just rely on him being a "freak" early on when he looked like a 18 year old at 14 or 15 and has not developed as much. So we need a good year from him in the TAC and see how he goes against the cream at the U18 Champs.
See how he goes against Collard, O'Brien and Jetta from WA and others. Gibbs, Schmidt and Millar from SA. Thats where it will be easier to rank them.

Hansen on Gumbleton.
Mackenzie on Hansen if he goes forward.
Hansen on Sellar.
Sellar on Leuenberger in the ruck.
Selwood on Gibbs.

etc.

Then we will know how has a pace issue. Who is agile. Who is accountable. Who can play KPPand are they CHB or a CHF.

 

[Bentleigh]

So you want one of the best 6 players in the draft?

Yes please.

Lachlan Hansen.

 

[mojo31]

Yep...I know where you are coming from. However, I am pleased that he has showed he can play midfield. He can read the ball and find it from the clearances. That was a major doubt behind him, he hadnt proven he could play midfield at any sort of level. He got 28 posessions in a side which didnt hand it to him on a plate.

I think he had afew moments when he did just get the ball and bang it forward but when you can kick the ball like that you dont really need to carry it 10-15m. Having said that, there are times when he tries to do too much and take players on and gets caught. Not because he was slow, because he simply tried to out muscle 1 too many players. The club is trying to teach him that in AFL players are alot stronger and the tackles will stick...hence he has to follow a fine line between banging the kick forward and taking players on.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing with Shannon is that he is improving weekly. To be honest, he struggled in the intra club matches pre season. However he has steadily improved and is now reaching a point where he is close to selection. Another game like last Saturday will probably be enough for a call up.

Having said all that, I dont think we got a bargain at #13. I think it was a good pick but from what I have seen so far, he wouldnt have been worth pick 4 or so.

I posted this on Hurn (on the main board which nobody may read with all the trolls I suppose).


I think Hurn will be a good player in time.

Its just people compare him to Ricciutto because of a similar body and both SA boys. The fact is Hurn is not a midfielder before getting drafted. He plays hbf in the U18 Champs for SA and also for Centrals in the SANFL.
They move him around a little but basically 80 to 90% of the time he is playing on the half back line. He has very good hands and does not fumble and is good 1 on 1 weith similar sized players. He is a great long kick of the ball and is built like a tank.

But he does win the ball in space. He does win clearances. He is not a natural ball winner. Some of it has to do with his lack of a pre season because he plays cricket. Some of it has to do with him having OP and not being able to terain during the week. But a lot of it has to dow ith that he is not a natural midfielder with all the reading of the play, ball getting skills etc.

He may develop in that regard and become a good midfielder but before the draft he did not have that on his CV. So it comes down to a player who is a huge unit with not as much scope to improve physically as for example a Dale Thomas or Xavier Ellis. Add to that that he does not play as a midfielder and you can see why clubs who needed midfielders in the first 6 picks passed on him.

So it comes down to what clubs see in him. I made the comparison.

Josh Hunt, slowish HBF with a huge body and a superb long kick or

Cameron Ling, big bodied midfielder with so so pace but great overhead and runs all day and hard as you like.

For me I leaned towards the Cameron Ling comparison and rated Hurn in the top 5 because of it. If clubs thought he was more Josh Hunt in style then thats why he might have lasted until 13.

I think at 13 he was a very good pick.

Watching him for Peel Thunder he was playing midfield but not running and carrying the ball and will need to do that if he makes it. But he won the ball and has trimmed down and moved pretty well. just threw it on the boot a bit to often and quickly for mine but is making good progress and borken into the seniors now is testament to that.

For me the thing that worries me is his agility. He seemed a little on 'train tracks" when he plays. Cant change direction quickly and can get turned around. So I will be interested how he looks against the quicker more agile midfielders who might run around him. In a straight line he is not slow (but not quick) but its all those small little steps that mids take in congestion and baulk around players (Dal Santo for example) that is where he will need to improve and the main quey I had on him before the draft. I am sure he has improved it but will it be enough?

Just my thoughts for what its worth.


After watching a replay of the game of WC/Brisbane he looked quite good. Still a touch slow as expected. But getting quicker. Trimmed down. Not out of place and fumbled a bit but we are comparing him to elite onballers (on both sides) and tyo be honest he was not that far off them in some apects. Beautiful booming kick of course. He is learning how to play midfield and from a ew showing for Peel I have seen and last weekends AFL game you would say he is making good progress.
Now he is fit and has enough off atank to do it he can develop the smarts to play in the position and learn how to use the ball better (not just grab it and blaze away). When to run and when to kick quickly. When to wait and hold onto the ball and draw an opponent and when to sag off the pack and when to go in and under.

Yes you can actually teach a player how to play midfield. Does not always happen but you can as long as they have the physical tools to do it. The main thing is that they do not fumble under pressure. Not everyone is football smart and gets the ball at will. Shane Tuck is 1 example of a player having no idea what to do. Now he does.

Andrew Walker is not a natural midfielder. Has the physical tools and does not fumble but not the smarts/reading of the play to rack up the stats. So they played him as a tagger to teach him. Now playing back and starting to push onto the wing.

Sometimes they make it and sometimes they do not. Got to love recruiting. There is no hard and fast rules.

The old "scope to improve" versus the ready made.
Natural footballer versus athletic type.

The list goes on and its never going to be an exact science. Does not stop people writing players off after 1 year or even 1 game.

I guess Tambling is useless as he in his 2nd year and not starring. He can come to Carlton if he wants.

Every year there are some rock solid prospects. Then there are some skinny kids who have great athletic ability but need time to develop there decison making and reading of the play. Can run quickly, good endurance, jump, kick mark but have no idea how to really go about putting it all together.

Tambling falls into the 'athletic freak" but skinny. Knows how to play but nobody is going to let him run around getting easy kicks. So het gets pushed off the ball and cant fight his way through it. Not really that fit because of hamstring injuries and not got the heavy kms into his legs yet that he needs to be a midfielder.
A burst player who is inconsistent and needs endurance and body strength and to work harder. He is exactly where most 19 year old kids normally are. Its just he is more talented than most of them.
Comparing him to Deledio and Griffen makes him seem a poor pick at the moment but he is just a different type of person and player.
More risky but he was not a rock solid pick (as far as recruiting goes) in the first place. Griffen and Deledio were. Cooney was.
Tambling is a completely different type of brilliant player who can do it all but has to learn how to put it together to translate it at AFL level.

 

[HBF]

Mojo, Haven't seen any of the TAC games this year, but I try to keep up to date with how some of the potential draftees are going so far. Although I must say that i'm looking forward to the Championships.

Have noticed though that Lachlen Hansen has been in the best players every game so far this year, surely he has to be a lock for the no.1 draft pick now?

 

[mojo31]

Mojo, Haven't seen any of the TAC games this year, but I try to keep up to date with how some of the potential draftees are going so far. Although I must say that i'm looking forward to the Championships.

Have noticed though that Lachlen Hansen has been in the best players every game so far this year, surely he has to be a lock for the no.1 draft pick now?

Hi mate.

Hansen has been super impressive at CHB but now pushing forward is doing well. Taking contested marks and kicking goals. Like I have said he can play anywhere and has shown that.
Anywhere down the spine and it just depends on what the club needed and how other players are going. Just adds flexability and versatility to a team. Not a 1 dimensional player.

You get some talls and they have all the skills but before they are drafted they play forward and you really dont know how they will go down back. You are just guessing with them.

Nobody is a lock for number 1. Like I have said in my opinion 5 fairly equally talented players and any of them could go at 1. Since its early May and we have hardly started the year and not had the U18 Carnival or the draft camp testing (how tall they are especially) its almost impossible to know.
I have my list. Others have theres. Its all pretty close and anyones guess.

Gumbleton is playing senior football in the WAFL and playing at a level that the talls from last year were nowhere near at that level (Clark, Ryder and Kennedy). Will he continue with it? Maybe.
Sellar is playing seniors as wellin the SANFL. Taller and filling in. Playing CHF and ruck. Not dominating but solid. Just turned 17.
Gibbs continues his good form in the seniors at Glenelg week after week.

Thorp has had an injury and been out. So he is the unknown at this stage. But just going on last year with him.

We will all know a lot more after the U18 Championships when some of these players are head to head.

But Hansen is still my pick at this early stage. If he keeps playing forward and kicking bags then he will firm. Everyone knows he can play CHB. Its strong form at CHF which will help him more than another year killing the poor forwards who line up on him when he plays CHB which is almost meaningless as far as recruiters go.

He showed he could play forward last year but there is a difference bewteen be able to "play there" and being a gun there. At the moment he is a 9/10 down back and 6/10 up forward. Some of that is due to opportunity of not playing there. Hopefully he gets to play forward more.

 

[Philhawk]

G'day Mojo, I think my next player I have to ask might be too young for you to know anything about. But nevertheless i'll ask anyhow .

I wouldn't suppose you'd have heard much of a young Ben Kennedy (brother of the Josh Kennedy that is to go to the Hawks this year under F/S). Just got selected in the Under 16 Vic team I believe? Just interested in what kind of a player we are looking at, forward, ruckman, midfielder, back?

Thanks again mate.

 

[HBF]

Great response Mojo (as usual). Depending on where Carlton finishes, which I think will be bottom 4, I really wouldn't mind getting either of Hansen, Sellar, Gibbs, Thorpe and Gumbleton. Getting any of those 5 kids would really add something to the Carlton list.

On player who I've read a fair bit about is Joel Selwood, but I would imagine we would need 2 picks in the top 10 to get him. I see that you've got him as a possibility to go as high as 5.

I believe that if Carlton can do well at this years draft, and I must say I have every confidence that Wayne Hughes will do that, this will go along way in us making our way up the ladder.

 

[Pharaoh]

Isn't it nice to know that each team is only going to get one of these potential stars in the next superdraft?

 

[Bentleigh]

Isn't it nice to know that each team is only going to get one of these potential stars in the next superdraft?

Says he that has rapped the drafting system the last 2 seasons..

 

[Nightwolf]

Says he that has rapped the drafting system the last 2 seasons..

Yeh, picks 1, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20 over the last 2 years are not a whole lot better either...

 

[Von Douche]

Fantastic work mojo.

Just out of curiosity, if there was one player in this draft who ISN'T highly touted (ie that could slip out of the top 30) who you think will go on to become a very good player, who would that be?

Cheers in advance, the Douche

 

[Bentleigh]

Yeh, picks 1, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20 over the last 2 years are not a whole lot better either...

Not a patch on yours champ.

Back to back pro picks. Well done.

 

[Thunderstruck]

Certainly looking forward to the under 18 champs. Very keen to see how Tom Holmes goes, this kid is bloody good. Very fluid mover absolute pleasure to watch him play.

Gumbleton in WAFL state squad so shows how bloody good he is. Good comparison would be to Pavlich at the same age, whom played SANFL state in 1999 when he was 17 and dominated. No VFL defender could handle his marking power. So be interested to see how well Gumbleton goes against some of the stronger SANFL players such as AhChee, Parry etc

 

[Silvagnis]

This thread is finished so I hope you got your questions in!

Blame Gumby if you didn't!

 

[GRANGE_GSM]

This thread is finished so I hope you got your questions in!

Blame Gumby if you didn't!

wah????? cypher whats R.I.P MOJO????....y is this thread finished?

 

[Lingsface]

Polak is another versatile tall player. A poor kick and decision maker but has superb hands overhead. Now getting the meat on his body to be able to compete down back. Needs to work on his goal kicking but when someone marks the ball as well as he does in contested situations he should be played forward.

Polak? No way. You wont get value. He is just a kid in terms of a KPP. You will just start to get some value out of him now if his body holds together. You can push him back also. He has a bad reputation and some is probably warranted but some is most likely a beat up. Clubs will undervalue him (like they did with Fevola last year, I wonder if Richmond would like pick 8 for JON or Fevola now?)

.

apparantley all the people involved with the 18s rate polak as having the best hands theyve seen.

 

[Warrack Eagles]

I played footy against Adam selwood as a 16 year old he was 15 and was a star jst puts his head over the ball and gets in there loves the hard stuff!!!

 

[Silvagnis]

wah????? cypher whats R.I.P MOJO????....y is this thread finished?

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=239564