2011 AFL & Crows Crystal Ball

[AFC979810]

Premiers: St.Kilda
Runners Up: Collingwood
Brownlow: Joel Selwood
Coleman: Jack Riewoldt
Rising Star: Swallow
Bolter/s of 2011: Hawthorn
Decline/s of 2011: Bulldogs

Adelaide:

Position: 7th
Wins: 10

Which Adelaide player/s will have a break-out year? Vince, Petrenko, Sellar, Porps

Adelaide's 1st Ruck Jacobs or Maric? Maric, with Jacobs to take over after Rd 20

Where will Tambling finish in our B&F? 9th

Out of the new recruits (Smith and Lyons) who will play the most games? Smith, 6 games.

Ian Callinan - How many Games and Goals? 2 games, 0 goals.

Best position for SMACK and how many games? Cutting Oranges, 0 games

Will Sam Shaw or Talia debut in 2011, what round and how many games? Talia, 2 games

Are James Sellar, Myle Cook and Tony Armstrong on their last chance?
Nope - all 3 to retain spots on list for 2012

Will Doughty play in season 2012?
Yes

For Tex Walker to have a good season, how many goals does he have to kick?
25-30.

How many goals will the Tippett / Walker combination contribute?
Depends on games played. 70-80

Biggest Crows News story for 2011? Jaensch, Vince and Armstrong become Coopers Pale Ale sponsors.

B&F? Thompson

Leading Goal Kicker? Porps

Coaches Award? Richard Douglas

Best Team Man? David Mackay

AA? Thompson, Porps, Stiffy

 

[Cap]

Do you want to reconsider this Cap?

Finishing 10th yet making the All Australian side. I know the B&F is a coaches award and sometimes the judgment from this is off, but this cannot be true. He cannot be AA and have 10 other crows players in front of him.

nope - even if it hasn't happened in the past that doesn't mean it won't happen full stop.

i'll try my luck.....

 

[cmndstab]

Where will Tambling finish in our B&F? 10th
AA? Davis (CHB) Tambling (Bench) Tippet (FF)

Hell, it'll be a strong season if our 10th best player makes it to the AA squad!!

 

[Cap]

Hell, it'll be a strong season if our 10th best player makes it to the AA squad!!

either that

or the top 10 players are very very even but given the type of Game Tambling plays and his history he is always going to be a stand out.

 

[KUNG FU]

Craig Bolton made the 2009 AA team without being in Sydney's Top 10 B&F count.

Although that was helped by the fact that they did not list a single CHB in the squad. Taylor should have been a lock, otherwise Lake moved up.

 

[cmndstab]

In that case, roll on the plaudits

 

[amer]

AFL:

Premiers: Collingwood
Runners Up: St Kilda
Brownlow: Scott Pendlebury
Coleman: Franklin
Rising Star: David Swallow
Bolter/s of 2011: North Melbourne
Decline/s of 2011: Western Bulldogs

Adelaide:

Position: 7th
Wins: 12

Which Adelaide player/s will have a break-out year? Walker, Martin, Sloane
Adelaide's 1st Ruck Jacobs or Maric? Jacobs

Where will Tambling finish in our B&F? 9th

Out of the new recruits (Smith and Lyons) who will play the most games?

Ian Callinan - How many Games and Goals? 8 games - 13 goals

Best position for SMACK and how many games? Second ruck, floating down back. Three games in 2011.

Will Sam Shaw or Talia debut in 2011, what round and how many games? Talia - Round 13

Are James Sellar, Myke Cook and Tony Armstrong on their last chance?
Yes, especially Sellar.

Will Doughty play in season 2012? Yes

For Tex Walker to have a good season, how many goals does he have to kick? 50+


How many goals will the Tippett / Walker combination contribute? 110

Biggest Crows News story for 2011? Walker to GWS

Biggest Winning Margin? Against? WC - 58 pts

Biggest Losing Margin? Against? Collingwood - 47 pts
B&F? Thompson

Leading Goal Kicker? Tippett - 60 goals

Coaches Award? Phil Davis

Best Team Man? Scott Thompson

AA? Scott Thompson our best chance.

Disappointing mate. Crows 4th at least surely!

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

nope - even if it hasn't happened in the past that doesn't mean it won't happen full stop.

i'll try my luck.....

Fair enough, it was just a bit odd. It will be one awesome season if it comes off. Here's hoping for miracles.

 

[Wallace]

AFL:

Premiers: Freo
Runners Up: Bulldogs
Brownlow: Pendlebury
Coleman: Tippett
Rising Star: Swallow
Bolter/s of 2011: Adelaide
Decline/s of 2011: St Kilda and Geelong

Adelaide: Bolter from 2010 fiasco on back of low injury count, return of Andy Otten and continued emergence of Tippett, Dangerfield, Mckay and Davis in particular.

Position: 4th
Wins: 15

Which Adelaide player/s will have a break-out year?: Sloane, Myke Cook, Phil Davis

Adelaide's 1st Ruck Jacobs or Maric?: Jacobs (but dont be surprised if Moran takes overtakes both of them)

Where will Tambling finish in our B&F?: 12th

Out of the new recruits (Smith and Lyons) who will play the most games?
: Smith (2 games), Lyons not to play a game
Ian Callinan - How many Games and Goals: ?: 0 games, 0 goals. not retained on rookie list in 2012.
Best position for SMACK and how many games?: 2nd ruck / wherever Scott Stevens plays (I imagine SMACK will get a game on the back of injuries, maybe to SS and will get experience in a 'swing man' type role).

Will Sam Shaw or Talia debut in 2011, what round and how many games?: Talia 6 games (filling in for injuries), Shaw 3 games.

Are James Sellar, Myle Cook and Tony Armstrong on their last chance?: Armstrong definitely. Sellar and Cook safe for 2012. This is on the basis that under Craig, players seemmore likely to get game time if the have average ability and work their tails off than if you have natural talent but shoot yourself in the foot with behavioural issues.

Will Doughty play in season 2012?: No

For Tex Walker to have a good season, how many goals does he have to kick?: 2 per game (around 45)

How many goals will the Tippett / Walker combination contribute?
: around 130-140
Biggest Crows News story for 2011?: Walker re-signs for 3 years.

Biggest Winning Margin? Against?: 89 points v Essendon (Ess to be wooden spooners)

Biggest Losing Margin? Against?: 47 points (to Freo)

B&F?: Tippett

Leading Goal Kicker?
: Tippett - 85 goals
Coaches Award?
: Andy Otten
Best Team Man?
: Jason Porplyzia
AA?: Tippett, Otten, McKay

 

[Cap]

Fair enough, it was just a bit odd. It will be one awesome season if it comes off. Here's hoping for miracles.

Given all the other things posted in this thread I reckon I have much chance as others.

 

[Cap]

Craig Bolton made the 2009 AA team without being in Sydney's Top 10 B&F count.

Although that was helped by the fact that they did not list a single CHB in the squad. Taylor should have been a lock, otherwise Lake moved up.

score 1 Cap !

 

[Firewalker]

AFL:

Premiers: Collingwood (took the easy option)
Runners Up: Hawks/St Kilda
Brownlow: Dane Swan
Coleman: Buddy Franklin
Rising Star: David Swallow
Bolter/s of 2011: Melbourne and Port Adelaide (to make the 8)
Decline/s of 2011: Sydney, Fremantle and Carlton

Adelaide:

Position: 7th - 8th
Wins: 12/11.5 (tipping our first draw in 17 years and also that 11 wins will get you in the 8 again.)

Which Adelaide player/s will have a break-out year? Mackay, N.van Berlo

Adelaide's 1st Ruck Jacobs or Maric? Jacobs (why else spend the time and money we have on him already?) pity because Ivan has heart.

Where will Tambling finish in our B&F? 11th - will show signs of what he's capable of, yet be frustrating to watch at the same time.

Out of the new recruits (Smith and Lyons) who will play the most games? One of them will play a couple of games in-between rounds 11-14 to "give him a taste of the elite level" but will look "amateurish" and be promptly put back in the Sand-fill.

Ian Callinan - How many Games and Goals? 7 games, 4 goals (have a feeling that it won't be a success)

Best position for SMACK and how many games? reserve 2nd ruck/floating forward - 13

Will Sam Shaw or Talia debut in 2011, what round and how many games? Talia to come in and replace Scott Stevens in the first part of the season after Stevo receives his compulsory 'slight' head knock and misses 4 games, which Talia plays and shows signs of being a good player before being dropped and having to play at Noarlunga on a freezing windy Saturday afternoon due to to our Backline needing the experience of Scotty. Shaw, None will be eased back into it this year in the Bay seniors.

Are James Sellar, Myle Cook and Tony Armstrong on their last chance? Cook will need divine intervention to stay on in '012, Armstrong... can kick, needs beef and to be taught a bit of a think before you do attitude if he wants to stay, Sellar, will stay, as a depth player. Has showed he'll never be anything other then an ok contributor, will play if injuries strike or if Craigy runs out of ideas with the 2nd ruckman again.

Will Doughty play in season 2012? No, unless you mean he gets poached by an NRL club in a sort of reverse Falou/Hunt deal due to his backward passing ability.

For Tex Walker to have a good season, how many goals does he have to kick? will need to contribute in every game he plays, but also needs to be given the freedom to relax and do his own thing without always having to worry about being dropped, only then will the results show on the scoreboard, 50 would be good.

How many goals will the Tippett / Walker combination contribute? 108 goals. (Tippett 60, Walker 48)

Biggest Crows News story for 2011? Adelaide oval yet again will come up just as much as the Walker GWS crap, Neil Craig's contract in the latter part of the year as well will be blown way out of proportion with Rucci writing after every time he refers to Craig; "who's contract runs out and the end of the year"

Biggest Winning Margin? Against? 78 points in Round 12 against West Coast @ AAMI

Biggest Losing Margin? Against? 52 points against St. Kilda @ Etihad in Round 18.

B&F? winner: David McKay, Runners up: S.Thompson, N van Berlo

Leading Goal Kicker? Kurt Tippett

Coaches Award? N.van Berlo

Best Team Man? S.Thompson

AA? Graham Johncock (sole representative), S.Thompson to make top 40

 

[Allefgib]

For Tex Walker to have a good season, how many goals does he have to kick? I still see Walker's role being a pocket player who leads to a boundary while Tippett leads straight. I'd say 30 goals is par... 40 goals would be a good season.

How many goals will the Tippett / Walker combination contribute? 90 goals between them.
Leading Goal Kicker? Tippett should be more consistent in 2011, I reckon. I'm pencilling him in as our lead goalkicker, with around 55 goals.

Not tipping Tex for a good season then stabby?

 

[cmndstab]

Not tipping Tex for a good season then stabby?

I'm tipping he stays around par for the time being. I think that it will have more to do with our young midfield bombing it into Tippett too often than with Walker's lack of work rate. Like I said, I see Tippett leading out straight while Walker leads towards a boundary (or, say, a 45 degree angle) - but I don't see our midfielders sighting him up yet.

I reckon he'll still have a decent year and will do some nice things, but without our side taking advantage of what he has to offer, he won't rip up the comp.

 

[amer]

Stabbo is one of the rare few who rates Tippett a cut above Walker, which is a gutsy call in this world of poster eat poster drama. That's why he slices underneath the typical Tex goal kicking tip.

Looking at Walker's gpg average, he'll inevitably kick over 50 assuming he plays all games. You'd think. Would love to see a 70 or 80 goal season though, something to light the fans up and get this new era officially underway.

 

[Cap]

I'm tipping he stays around par for the time being. I think that it will have more to do with our young midfield bombing it into Tippett too often than with Walker's lack of work rate. Like I said, I see Tippett leading out straight while Walker leads towards a boundary (or, say, a 45 degree angle) - but I don't see our midfielders sighting him up yet.

I reckon he'll still have a decent year and will do some nice things, but without our side taking advantage of what he has to offer, he won't rip up the comp.

since i'm bored

lack of work rate or players bombing it in to Tippet? surely one or the other.

I've said it 100 times, If Walker played for a Victorian Club we would already be considered a top level forward talent simply because the majority of clubs based in Vic know how to kick to a lead.

 

[cmndstab]

I don't know about how good the Vic clubs are at kicking to a lead, but I'll agree it's a weakness of ours. Very few of our players have the ability to lower their eyes and spot up a lead - and we just lost one of our best in McLeod.

I think both Walker and Tippett offer a similar potential output, albeit coming from very different directions.

Walker is sublimely talented, with one major weakness - pace. He's the right height, has the skills, the footy smarts, the hands, and the cockiness to be a brilliant player, but against a top-line defender his pace can let him down.

Tippett is a total brute of a man, and although his footy intuition is lacking and his kicking is a definite weakness, he has something disappointingly rare in a man of his size and athleticism - an absolute hunger for the ball. He'll fight in the air or on the ground for it, and is such a freak of a specimen that if the delivery is "good enough" he's impossible to stop without dedicating multiple men to him.

I think both players complement one another perfectly. Tippett plays out of the goal square so as to demand the number one defender. He leads straight up the ground, and if the delivery is right, nobody is going to stop him from getting the ball. Walker plays in a pocket and leads out a bit wider. The opposition then have to decide, do we use our next best tall defender to mind Walker? Or do we leave him on Tippett and try to get an athletic medium-tall to go with Walker. Becomes a match-up headache, and of course Walker is more than capable of slotting the goal if he does take it on an angle.

However, all of this only works if we make a point of hitting up forwards who are free. If Tippett is on one-out in the goal square, or if no other options are available, then by all means go there. However, if another forward is leading into space, whether it be Tippett leading out straight or Walker towards a boundary line, or one of our other forwards, the ball should go to that space. If we continue our pattern of simply bombing it long to Tippett 80% of the time, the match-up headache disappears - put your best defenders on Tippett, and an athletic tweener onto Walker for the occasional time we actually use him.

Unfortunately, while I think we have some good ball-winners in our midfield, I'm not sure we have the best decision-makers in there. Hopefully the reemergence of Knights at half-forward, and the likes of Jaensch and Porplyzia becoming a ball winning force around the 40-60m area, this problem can start to fix itself up... but I don't see it happening in 2011. I think we'll still bomb it to Tippett, who is big, strong, and talented enough to turn that into multiple goals, but it will be at the expense of Walker and overall not the best outcome for the team.

I think we'll have the balance right when Tippett and Walker are kicking roughly the same number of goals in a season.

 

[Slippery Pete]

One of Taylor Walker's farts has more football talent than Kurt Tippett.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Walker is sublimely talented, with one major weakness - pace. He's the right height, has the skills, the footy smarts, the hands, and the cockiness to be a brilliant player, but against a top-line defender his pace can let him down..

He's 192cm and about 97kg - almost identical proportions to Wayne Carey. How quick was the King? Emphasising his lack of pace as a weakness is SO GOD DAMN Adelaide Football Club.

Tippett is a total brute of a man, and although his footy intuition is lacking and his kicking is a definite weakness, he has something disappointingly rare in a man of his size and athleticism - an absolute hunger for the ball. .

Who cares. The man can't kick straight, and will break our hearts continually. Competitiveness, though, is a trait ranked above all else at West Lakes - even match-losing skill level.

 

[Cap]

I agree Pete on both points Pete - Walkers lack of pace is a hell of a lot less damaging that Kurt inability to kick straight - a fundamental skill involved in the sport (well it used to be).

I'm not saying Tippet doesn't have ability but as a forward you want to be pretty accurate and he isn't.

 

[cmndstab]

He's 192cm and about 97kg - almost identical proportions to Wayne Carey. How quick was the King? Emphasising his lack of pace as a weakness is SO GOD DAMN Adelaide Football Club.

Would you rather we simply ignored it? He has a lack of pace, it's a reality. Does it prevent him from being a great footballer? No, it doesn't. But it is something that can be exploited by the opposition, and in this modern age of super-athletic footballers, it can be exploited more than ever before.

We have a bunch of good young forwards. We can't just stick them all in the goal square and tell them to stay put. We need to come up with a structure that enables them to use their strengths as much as possible, while making their weaknesses less stark. I think Tippett in the goal square and Walker leading wide achieves that. I think we'd get more realistic goal scoring opportunities out of that than having Walker in the goal square and Tippett somewhere else.

Who cares. The man can't kick straight, and will break our hearts continually. Competitiveness, though, is a trait ranked above all else at West Lakes - even match-losing skill level.

The guy kicked 50 goals in his second season. His kick is not good, you're right, but I don't care if he misses half his shots on goal if he gets enough of them. Are you suggesting we'd be better off getting rid of him altogether?

We'd want to have a damn good replacement. Tippett is as important to us structurally as his goal output, which by itself places him in the top level in the comp already.

 

[Slippery Pete]

it is something that can be exploited by the opposition, and in this modern age of super-athletic footballers, it can be exploited more than ever before..

This is what I mean. Are you insinuating a 21yo Wayne Carey wouldn't be as dominant in today's era? The last thing I'd ever think of saying when describing Walker is he has a lack of pace. Darren Jarman lacked pace. It's irrelevant to me. We don't need pace from Taylor Walker.

The guy kicked 50 goals in his second season. His kick is not good, you're right, but I don't care if he misses half his shots on goal ..

I do. Missing that many shots is terrible for team morale and the players up field. You can half justify it with a guy like Franklin because he kicks the freakish ones. Kurt doesn't. If Kurt doesn't nail the bread and butter ones, he's as good as useless.

Are you suggesting we'd be better off getting rid of him altogether?.

Of course not. I'm suggesting playing him somewhere where his kicking won't hurt us. Playing someone 200cm tall out of the goalsquare as a permanent option is something that has rarely been done in the history of the game.

I'm also pointing to what I see as a flaw in our thinking - nobody disputes Tippett is an absolute competitive animal , but I think this quality is rated too high at our club, at the expense of actual football ability. It's the Ian Perrie/Nick Gill syndrome that our club has grappled with for so long.

Kurt is obviously a far superior player to those two, but you get my drift.

 

[cmndstab]

I do think that if Carey was 21 today he would have a less dominant career than he did have. No way to back that statement up of course, but it's what I think.

I am kind of hoping Tippett will start nailing the bread and butter shots. It's not as though he's incapable of it, so it must be all between the ears. If he doesn't manage to fix that part of his game up it will certainly hurt his chances of becoming a top-line forward.

 

[ringo200]

Walker has missed more than his fair share of bread and butter shots as well. We would've really struggled these last two years if you take Tippett out of the side.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

In Tippett and Walker we should have a GREAT forward line tandem working together. Their games complement each other perfectly. You'd think they would rarely get in each other's way and having a leading option AND a goal square option should be perfect to spread opposition defences.

Instead Neil implemened his idiotic strategy of demanding DEEP forward fifty entries which basically equates to bomb it long. So we are predictable. We kick to Tippett in 2-1 or 3-1 contests all the time. We ignore leads. We rely on contested marks to kick goals (surely the least efficient strategy possible). Walker is wasted. And because we play in this way it means that we pay no heed to footskills with our midfielder selection/recruitment policies (anyone can lob it into the goalsquare).

It is classic Neil. Our attacks are built purely around our ability to defend from them! A deep kick into the goalsquare makes it harder for the opposition to score a goal on the rebound. Yep, forget about what is the best way for US to kick a goal. All that matters is a contingency plan for when we stuff up. Safety first. Boring.