2011 AFL & Crows Crystal Ball

[Allefgib]

Vince in 2009 really broke up our typical style of play. He didn't look short coming out of half-back or wing - he looked long AND hit targets. He didn't always look long coming through 70 or 60 either.. he often hit targets or even kicked goals himself hitting 55 and in. Knights obviously made a difference there as well.

if Vince and Knighta can get back to their 09 form things will be different going forward me thinks. If they can't.... I'm inclined to agree wholeheartedly with you Carl. We place too much emphasis on structure and routine and the lesser talents thrive in busting their asses and sticking to those structure and routines... the result being typically competitive performances but rarely match-winning ones.

 

[Vader]

Sure, Walker's roughly the same size as Carey, but that's where the comparisons end. Frankly, who cares if he's the same size? Wayne Carey had several things which we've yet to see from Walker - a huge work rate and a burning desire to be the absolute best.

Right now, Tippett is an infinitely better player than Walker and more important to our team. Tippett kicked 55 games in his breakout year in 2009, backing it up with 46 in 2010 despite having a bad case of the yips and playing in a team which was not achieving anything like its previous standards.

Walker has the talent.. but hasn't (yet) shown the ability to apply it. If he gets it together then he may well go past Tippett, but right now he's barely even standing in Tippett's shadow.

As for accuracy, Tippett has scored 118.82 over his AFL career - an average accuracy of 59%. Walker has 58.47, or 55%. Tippett wins yet again...

 

[Cap]

Carey and Walker comparisons are silly but still.

Carey's breakout year was as a 21 yr old so i'll give Walker a chance he also had the assitance of John Longmuire who was hardly a dud forward.

Walker will be the best forward since Modra - Tippet will be the best Forward/Ruck we've ever had.

 

[Truck25]

Don't get me wrong here, I am a huge Walker fan and believe that he will move ahead of Kurt in the coming years and be the next big thing so to speak but if you do a comparison over the last 2 years years I think people are being harsh on Kurt.

2009 - Tippet 51-31 @ 68% / Walker 23-19 @ 54%
2010 - Tippet 46-34 @ 57% / Walker 35-28 @ 55%

I know this doesn't take into account games played or where the shots are taken or out of bounds but if you compare this to some of the top forwards around over the last 2 years it becomes interesting. (Note: yes there are other forwards I could have considered but I just took the first five I thought of, Mooney's probably lucky to be there but he makes Walker look good)

2009
J.Brown - 85-52 @ 62% / N.Reiwoldt 78-47 @ 62% / B.Fev 89-57 @ 60% / C.Mooney 46-42 @ 52% / L.Franklin 67-46 @ 59%

2010
J.Brown - 53-24 @ 68% / N.Reiwoldt 39-34 @ 53% / B.Fev 48-25 @ 72% / C.Mooney 36-30 @ 54% / L.Franklin 64 -42 @ 60 %

Only the Fev beat Tippet for accuracy in 2009 over the two year period but Walker is well back in the pack. Yet everybody hammers him over accuracy, Yes he had a bad year as a lot of players can but he still hit 46 goals and I think if he relaxes and just kicks through the ball he'll be back up around 65% soon enough.

Side Note - Porps 2009 - 57-20 @ 74% is outstanding and 2010 22-17 @ 56% back in the pack. Maybe it was more a symptom of the poor start that affected both Porps and Tippo? where as Walker improved with more game time.

 

[cmndstab]

Direct comparison of stats between Walker and Tippett are misleading the primary reason that Tippett is clearly favoured by our midfielders, who also tend to deliver the ball to him close to goal. Walker gets fewer opportunities to take the ball, and has to kick goals from more difficult positions, so you'd expect his tally and conversion ratio to be lower.

My feeling is that this will even up if our midfielders get a bit smarter. I envision a time in the (hopefully near) future where both players will be 50+ goal forwards, but it will not happens if we continue our strategy of dropping the ball on Tippett's head. Tippett should still continue to be a 50 goal a year forward in that situation, but it will not allow the team to get the most out of our forward line ensemble.

 

[Truck25]

I think as Walker matures and confidence in him grows (not only his but the players and coaching staff) you will find the delivery into the forward line will become more of a 2 pronged attack instead of the one dimensional movement we have now, and I predict we will have for the first time 2 gun 50+ goal forwards, very exciting prospect especially when you throw in Porp's, Jaensch and Hendo in a supporting role.
My previous point was more to point out the Kurt can be quiet accurate when his confidence is up, 2009 was better that most gun forwards with Fev's 2010 being the only one above 68%. Just look at his last goal against Collingwood in the final of 2009, what a corker, just about won the game....just about .
Hopefully we will get off to a good start and the confidence will be up and Kurt will get back to around 68%.
Walker will get better no doubt, can he match Carey's dominance of the game? I hope so, IMO only J.Brown is close when fit.
Walker's (I hate this word) Potential is sky high and at only 20 years of age.
The Crows need to pull out all stops to keep him.

 

[amer]

Think you'll find our attack will look a lot better when we get our better kicks on the park and consistently fit, so we can hit a few up.

 

[Swifty18]

I'm going to take this thread back to where it started instead of this "Tippett vs Walker" stuff...

AFL:

Premiers: Collingwood
Runners Up: Hawthorn
Brownlow: Swan
Coleman: Buddy
Rising Star: No idea
Bolter/s of 2011: Melbourne
Decline/s of 2011: Geelong, Bulldogs

Adelaide:

Position: 7th
Wins: 12 wins

Which Adelaide player/s will have a break-out year?
Sloane, Walker, Henderson, Jaensch, Martin, Jacobs

Adelaide's 1st Ruck Jacobs or Maric?
Maric at the start but Jacobs will quickly take over

Where will Tambling finish in our B&F?
7th

Out of the new recruits (Smith and Lyons) who will play the most games?
Smith - 7 games

Ian Callinan - How many Games and Goals?
10 games - 22 goals

Best position for SMACK and how many games?
I don't know.... and 12 games

Will Sam Shaw or Talia debut in 2011, what round and how many games?
Shaw - round 13, 3 games. Talia - round 6, 8 games

Are James Sellar, Myke Cook and Tony Armstrong on their last chance?
Yes.

Will Doughty play in season 2012?
Yes - will be his last though.

For Tex Walker to have a good season, how many goals does he have to kick?
40-50.

How many goals will the Tippett / Walker combination contribute?
120 - Walker 50, Tippett 70 (obviously not EXACTLY 120, and 50/70, but that'd be hilarious if that did happen )

Biggest Crows News story for 2011?
Walker, Vince & Otten re-sign all for 3 years

Biggest Winning Margin? Against?
GC at Aami - 88 points

Biggest Losing Margin? Against?
St Kilda at Etihad - 46 points

B&F?
Johncock

Leading Goal Kicker?
Tippett - 70 goals

Coaches Award?
Douglas

Best Team Man?
Thompson

AA?
Johncock

 

[Slippery Pete]

I do think that if Carey was 21 today he would have a less dominant career than he did have. No way to back that statement up of course, but it's what I think..

I think you admitted in another thread you were reasonably new to the game?? This comment shows it .

Direct comparison of stats between Walker and Tippett are misleading the primary reason that Tippett is clearly favoured by our midfielders, who also tend to deliver the ball to him close to goal. Walker gets fewer opportunities to take the ball, and has to kick goals from more difficult positions, so you'd expect his tally and conversion ratio to be lower.

That's more like the Stabbo I've come to know. It's a very good point. What was Richo's percentage? I reckon it was in the high 50's, perhaps even 60's. Tredrea's was around that too - in fact I recall seeing once that Tredrea's was around the same as Ricciuto's. This tells me that stat is absolutely useless, as you'd put your life on Ricciuto, and you wouldn't put your lunch money on Tredrea. That stat leaves so many things out of the equation, not least of all WHEN you kick them.

Example....Last quarter of a Grand Final.... Five goals straight.... I and every Crows fan doesnt give two hoots what Darren Jarman's career percentage was. WHEN you're able to nail them is what it's all about.

 

[Ticktak]

He's 192cm and about 97kg - almost identical proportions to Wayne Carey. How quick was the King? Emphasising his lack of pace as a weakness is SO GOD DAMN Adelaide Football Club.

He wasn't slow. His pace was well above average for his size.

 

[amer]

He's 192cm and about 97kg - almost identical proportions to Wayne Carey. How quick was the King? Emphasising his lack of pace as a weakness is SO GOD DAMN Adelaide Football Club.

He wasn't slow. His pace was well above average for his size.

Wasn't well above average for his size. But he wasn't a tractor. I don't think it's something that we can effectively sit here and try to peg unless we're talking at either extreme. Which with Walker we sort of are. He's slow and it's something he would have grown up learning to make up for.

 

[kulak]

Also, Carey sometimes took pack marks.

 

[kulak]

On topic now.

AFL:

Premiers: Western Bulldogs Runners Up: Collingwood
Brownlow: Griffen
Coleman: Franklin
Rising Star: probably someone at GC, say Swallow.
Bolter/s of 2011: Richmond
Decline/s of 2011: Fremantle

Adelaide:

Position: 10th
Wins: 10

Which Adelaide player/s will have a break-out year?
Brodie Martin, Rory Sloane, Phil Davis

Adelaide's 1st Ruck Jacobs or Maric?
Jacobs

Where will Tambling finish in our B&F?
10-15

Out of the new recruits (Smith and Lyons) who will play the most games?
Smith

Ian Callinan - How many Games and Goals?
17 / 30

Best position for SMACK and how many games?
Walker's position / part time ruck. 4.
Will Sam Shaw or Talia debut in 2011, what round and how many games?
Talia might fill in for Rutten for a few games if he gets injured.Are James Sellar, Myke Cook and Tony Armstrong on their last chance?
Is this a rhetorical question?

Will Doughty play in season 2012?
Hopefully

For Tex Walker to have a good season, how many goals does he have to kick?
Goals schmoals Walker has a good season if he improves his football IQ. 40 as a second forward would be fine.

How many goals will the Tippett / Walker combination contribute?
110

Biggest Crows News story for 2011?
Rutten retires after knee injury

Biggest Winning Margin? Against?
15 goals, at home to Essendon

Biggest Losing Margin? Against?
10 goals, away to Bulldogs

B&F?
Bernie VinceLeading Goal Kicker?
Tippett

Coaches Award?
Tambling

Best Team Man?
Symes

AA?
None

 

[Slippery Pete]

He's 192cm and about 97kg - almost identical proportions to Wayne Carey. How quick was the King? Emphasising his lack of pace as a weakness is SO GOD DAMN Adelaide Football Club.

He wasn't slow. His pace was well above average for his size.

Yeah, I wasn't insinuating he was slow. I just sensed Stabbo was judging his pace by full forward standards rather than centre half forward standards. We'll get in trouble if we do that to him. He's no Modra on the lead.

 

[cmndstab]

I think you admitted in another thread you were reasonably new to the game?? This comment shows it .

Yeah, I've said as much a number of times in the past I came to the game around the turn of the century.

I'm not saying Carey wouldn't be a dominant force in today's game, but I think it's more than fair enough to say he would be less dominant than he was. The quality of opposition has taken a fair step up, if nothing else.

I do make a point of noting things that are only my uneducated opinion when I'm not so sure on them though

 

[amer]

Don't forget today's players are better conditioned, manage their bodies better etc.. Carey would be a different beast in today's game.

 

[Allefgib]

yet a beast he would remain.

look a j. brown. still an extremely dominant CHF in the modern game.

King was better than J Brown by a fair margin... and still would be.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Don't forget today's players are better conditioned, manage their bodies better etc.. Carey would be a different beast in today's game.

If anything, I think he set the standard for conditioning and a lot of players - like Jonathan Brown - have used that template. Carey was probably the only player that was able to change the way the actual game was played. An entire gameplan was built around his existence.

In those days, there was no chopping of the arms rule to help forwards out either. There were less defenders in the forward 50 yes, but they were also the days when ruckman would drop back into the hole.

Carey would be a dominant force - and more - in today's era.

 

[Pariah]

AFL:

Premiers: Doggies Runners Up: St Kilda
Brownlow: Swan
Coleman: Franklin, fully fit should dominate once again.
Rising Star:Sam Day
Bolter/s of 2011: Melbourne
Decline/s of 2011: Swans

Adelaide:

Position: 9th
Wins: 11

Which Adelaide player/s will have a break-out year?
Smack, Talia, Gunston and Jaensch

Adelaide's 1st Ruck Jacobs or Maric?
Jacobs

Where will Tambling finish in our B&F?
9

Out of the new recruits (Smith and Lyons) who will play the most games?
Smith

Ian Callinan - How many Games and Goals?
22/40

Best position for SMACK and how many games?
Interchange because of his versatility, 6

Will Sam Shaw or Talia debut in 2011, what round and how many games?
Shaw will be a chance if Stevens gets injured early again.
I think Talia could take a few games off Davis(if Davis gets the 2nd years blues) and if there are some injuries.
Are James Sellar, Myke Cook and Tony Armstrong on their last chance?
I think Jimmy will be kept as back up until are inexperienced KKP players cement their spots in the starting 18.
Cook will be gone unless he starts realizing the potential that got him drafted.
Armstrong should be safe unless he stuffs off-field again.
Symes will be gone as well.
Will Doughty play in season 2012?
No. Rumor has it he was talked into playing on again.

For Tex Walker to have a good season, how many goals does he have to kick?
50 goals more if the team weren't so Tippett conscious and to have 30+ goal assists.

How many goals will the Tippett / Walker combination contribute?
130

Biggest Crows News story for 2011?
Neil Craig announces retirement.

Biggest Winning Margin? Against?
15 goals, at home to Essendon

Biggest Losing Margin? Against?
10 goals, away to Collingwood

B&F?
Scott Thompson
Leading Goal Kicker?
Tippett

Coaches Award?
Otten

Best Team Man?
Stevens

AA?
Johncock if he plays every game.
________

 

[Mismatched]

If anything, I think he set the standard for conditioning and a lot of players - like Jonathan Brown - have used that template. Carey was probably the only player that was able to change the way the actual game was played. An entire gameplan was built around his existence.

In those days, there was no chopping of the arms rule to help forwards out either. There were less defenders in the forward 50 yes, but they were also the days when ruckman would drop back into the hole.

Carey would be a dominant force - and more - in today's era.

There were less defenders in the forward 50, but there were as many as 3 on Carey at a single time, more if the opposition could work it. Todays rules, as you say, would have only helped him, not to mention the zoning. A zone would have not helped against Carey, what good would a zone be against a bloke who could take on a 3 blokes at once and win more often than not?

Carey would easily have been as dominant, if not more so in todays era. He was the prototype modern player and such was his alround ability, that he would have dominated in any era.

There were questions re his pace earlier, in his heyday, one of the things that made Carey so tough to man up on was that he moved as well as most midfielders and not only that, he was as fit as and had the ability to push his body to the limits the same way Riewoldt can. Couple that with a bloke who was as strong as and was a better contested/pack grab than Jono Brown and you've got a pretty fearsome prospect. Put someone of similar strength on him and he'll run him off his feet. Put someone with his athletic/running ability on him and he'll just toss him round like a rag doll. The only bloke who regularly gave him a run for his money was Jakovich, but then that was only because Carey's ego got in the way and he just couldn't stop trying to out muscle Jakovich, when he could quite easily have run him off his feet.

I can't comment on anyone pre the 1990's, but Carey is the most complete footballer I have ever seen and quite frankly its not worth comparing anyone in the modern game to him. Pavlich is probably as close as they come and I wonder what might have been had he not spent his entire career at a basket case, that is only now starting to come good. Even then, its still a stretch.

Remember, one should not judge Carey on his time at the Crows, at his best(I mean the Essendon and Hawthorn games in 04), he was probably a quarter of the player he was in the 90's, such was the state of his body.

 

[Slippery Pete]

There were questions re his pace earlier, in his heyday, one of the things that made Carey so tough to man up on was that he moved as well as most midfielders and not only that, he was as fit as and had the ability to push his body to the limits the same way Riewoldt can.

Duck's ability to run back with the flight and instinctively take chest marks was something that you can't teach either. In fact you wouldn't teach it, because players are taught to take the ball in their hands whenever possible. Carey's aerial technique was just due to an incredible amount of natural talent. A talent so great that the Paddock was borne out of it.

One thing you didn't mention was how much of a weapon his kicking was. He frequently bombed goals from outside 50. He was a better kick than any of those players you mentioned, including Brown and Pavlich.

 

[Ticktak]

I know this if off topic but I Love the thoughts on Carey. Totally agree with you all. He is easily the best player I have ever seen play the game.

 

[AFC979810]

Don't forget today's players are better conditioned, manage their bodies better etc.. Carey would be a different beast in today's game.

Don't forget that Carey would also be better conditioned and manage his body much better as well....

Always impossible to try to compare players from different generations - especially when the game of AFL has changed so much in the last 50 years.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Don't forget that Carey would also be better conditioned and manage his body much better as well....

Always impossible to try to compare players from different generations - especially when the game of AFL has changed so much in the last 50 years.

The way opposing teams manned up on him reminded me of this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan_Rules

Rutten has always been able to comfortably take care of guys like Brown, Hall and Tredrea by wearing them like a glove and matching them in the body on body.

That style of defence wouldn't have worked on Carey. He was far too mobile and had way too many tricks up his sleeve. I'm afraid The Truck would have been in trouble.

 

[AFC979810]

The way opposing teams manned up on him reminded me of this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan_Rules

Rutten has always been able to comfortably take care of guys like Brown, Hall and Tredrea by wearing them like a glove and matching them in the body on body.

That style of defence wouldn't have worked on Carey. He was far too mobile and had way too many tricks up his sleeve. I'm afraid The Truck would have been in trouble.

Great link mate... huge fan of the way the 'bad boys' went about it...

Love the Daly quote of "The other rule was, any time he went by you, you had to nail him. If he was coming off a screen, nail him. We didn't want to be dirty—I know some people thought we were—but we had to make contact and be very physical".....

I just think that these types of 'once in a generation' players would be equally as dominant no matter when they played... Talent is Talent...