Preview 2012 Expectations

[Scarlett Fever]

I will be amazed and in awe if we win the flag next year. The one thing I have learnt about this side is that you under estimate them at your peril. But if we couldn't go back to back after 07 and 09 then I will be surprised if we can do it next year. The key will be the start of the season. If we get early wins on the board and can start preparing for finals as early as round 14 then we will give it a good crack.

The thing that gives me optimism is that we are so far and away better than 14 other sides in the comp that it would take a big drop in standard to start getting beaten regularly. If we are in the top 4 and can afford a long range preparation rather than fighting to the death to be in the four then we are a chance. My money (and not my heart) would be on the pies for now.

 

[David the Cat]

Well....we have only won one Premiership in an even year in our history ( 1952 ) so history says no to a Premiership next year.....







**** history!

 

[Boxhead_31]

Certainly an option CA...but with Pods at FF and Hawkins at CHF, Jimmy may not be needed as a CHF.

Unless of course, your suggesting Pods be permanently dropped ...Hawkins to FF and Bartel to CHF....

Try running that by PO...I am sure he will have an opinion on that

Oh dear god no

Not saying we drop Pod's just thinking that if his shoulder isn't right to go that playing Jimmy from there might be a viable option.

Just look at Porplyzia for how easy it is for a loose shoulder joint to wreck a season with Brown a season or two away body wise we need to have options

 

[David the Cat]

Was just a little shit stirring by me CA...I know exactly what you mean and see your point.

PO looked the other way I reckon!

 

[thegerman]

Yep our chances would be tough. After all we are the odd-year team for the past 5 years. I'd expect us back up there in 2013!

 

[meto]

I think 2012 will determine Scotts' natural coaching talents and leadership qualities more than in 2011, when in the wake of leadership departures, the senior playing group stood up and said, 'yes we can'. And they did!

I reckon we'll finish 4th, at best. We'll probably see a few more new faces, so 4th will be a great effort.

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

I think 2012 will determine Scotts' natural coaching talents and leadership qualities more than in 2011, when in the wake of leadership departures, the senior playing group stood up and said, 'yes we can'. And they did!

I reckon we'll finish 4th, at best. We'll probably see a few more new faces, so 4th will be a great effort.

really?
At best? We just won the flag and beat Collingwood three times the same year. I know Carlton are talked up alot but they won't be good enough because they have to many b-grade players.
Hawks are good but they have an aging midfield that won't get any better.
Collingwood will likely finish in the top 4 and apart from West Coast, why would finishing 4th be a great effort when you just have look at the talent on our list compared those others and see that finishing top or near top would likely be on the cards again.

Stevie J will kick a lazy 70 goals in 2012, Hawkins + Pods 45+ goals then you add in the likes of Varcoe, Stokes, Duncan, Byrnes and Chapman who won't have any interrupted pre-season this time around and it's just too much quality for other teams to cope with.
And we'll also see youngsters like Brown & Vardy play a big part in next season so if Pods, Johnson or Chappy go down then the replacements are there not to mention Menzel who hopefully is back before finals

 

[Goggin Our Best]

What id like to see next season is one of the young midfielders to really emerge and establish himself in the team -someone like Guthrie or Cowan -or someone even further back . Footballs full of surprises -at the start of last year i would have given a million to one to anybody about Trent West playing in a premiership with Geelong -and an important part of it as well.

 

[GFC123]

Another flag would be a bonus, this year was pretty much the icing on the cake for me, 3 in 5 years, absolutly wonderful. In 2012 i hope we don't slide, but i hope i just don't crack the shits when we start to lose more often, because since 2007, i've become so immune to us winning that i think it's how we should always be lol. Top 4 would be great next year, and like i said, another flag would just be a bonus and we'd all be so lucky, this group is the best group of players.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Was just a little shit stirring by me CA...I know exactly what you mean and see your point.

PO looked the other way I reckon!

Must have, because Pods is a certain starter when fit

I do agree we may need a backup option if he has any setbacks with the shoulder though, and Brown can't play that same role now unless we want to seriously risk his long term future, so left field suggestions like Jimmy etc are quite valid.

On the OP, I am reasonably bullish about our prospects for 2012 although it depends on the injury list. We don't have a lot of depth cover in the spine positions so we need preferably no injuries to our spine players, and a low injury list overall that allows us to rotate the squad in the way we did this year. If we get that we're a real chance as I don't think there's a lot of genuine competition outside of the Pies Hawks Blues etc and I do think we'll win enough games to make top 4 again, and from then on our experience really helps us.

 

[you pick one]

Must have, because Pods is a certain starter when fit

I do agree we may need a backup option if he has any setbacks with the shoulder though, and Brown can't play that same role now unless we want to seriously risk his long term future, so left field suggestions like Jimmy etc are quite valid.

On the OP, I am reasonably bullish about our prospects for 2012 although it depends on the injury list. We don't have a lot of depth cover in the spine positions so we need preferably no injuries to our spine players, and a low injury list overall that allows us to rotate the squad in the way we did this year. If we get that we're a real chance as I don't think there's a lot of genuine competition outside of the Pies Hawks Blues etc and I do think we'll win enough games to make top 4 again, and from then on our experience really helps us.

I agree with the bolded,but think our ruck devision could be our Achilles in 2012 as it stands Simpson is the only no1 ruckman of any size,with West and Vardy better suited to the 2nd ruck role.
30 AFL games between them is not much to hang your hat on,even if the potential is there.
Ottens is a huge loss pity he couldn't go around one more year but thats life.It would be remiss of me not to even make mention of Blake, not every ones favorite player but a genuine no1 tap ruckman so thats two gone in the same year.
A long term injury to West or Simpson and were up the famous old creek and I expect the club know that. It will be interesting to see if they try to address it in the draft,I hope they don't still have Hawkins in their thinking.
Any way I think our list is still capable of a top four finish to answer the op's question.

 

[Raggedy Man]

Geelong has to start favourites, surely. Won the highest standard Grand Final since 1989 running away. Best defence in the AFL by a street, and Scarlett the best backman I've seen in 60 years (just ahead of Doull and Fletcher).
The midfield is as good as any, and though they'll miss Ottens they'll rove to the opposition just fine if they have to. Selwood, Bartel, Corey and Kelly would walk into any other side, and I suspect Duncan would too. Christensen is a genuine rover and played really well when it counted.
Stevie J is the most thoughtful player I've ever seen and a genius in his own way. Hawkins now ought to realise he can do as he likes and is the key forward. Chappy is a gun flanker, and Menzel looked the goods.
Only problem for me is a rerun of the Hawthorn disaster when the yips got them badly.
The best thing, though, is the way they all look to attack whenever it's even remotely feasible.
Magnificent 5 years, and for the sake of footy, let's hope the yips (and injuries) leave them alone!

 

[Belisarius]

So hard to make accurate predictions re a bunch of teams - and when unpredictable things can happen.

However if the midfield without Ottens and Ling can stand up (and this requires Bundy and Duncan to make further improvement in their out put - and Simpson and West to be a handy combination) - then I cannot see why we wont make top 4.

I would back us to have a real shot from there.

Backline will be as good as ever, forward line (with a fit Pods and an improving Hawkins) could be actually better next season -especially if Menzel comes back in at some point fit and able to contribute.

So its all about getting a new midfield set up that works well without Ablett, Ling and Ottens. Tall order - but that is what confronts us to go back to back IMO.

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

the midfield is fine...Duncan, Selwood and Christensen will be there for the next 7 years but as mentioned above by PO, Ottens will be a loss but I believe the club is always working a couple of steps ahead of all of us and they must know that Simpson is going to be an A-grade ruckman otherwise we would have been shopping around a couple of seasons ago in preparation for Ottens retirement.

Seems like he will be thrown into the deep end but his body is ready and he just needed a couple of years longer to develop.
I reckon he'd be getting absolutely flogged this pre-season (poor bugger )
as his endurance was the only issue I saw in him playing VFL level but when your close to 7ft, that can be expected.

I thought his halftime sprint was also a positive sign even though he ended up finishing last...he was leading them for the 1st 20 or so meters, even though Mark Blake was a very good tap ruckman, Simpson is a good 3 to 4 inches taller and can also jump so I think he'll no worries getting his hands on the pill more so than his opposition ruck

 

[Belisarius]

I have been re-watching the 2012 Finals again - and Bundy shows all the signs of being a seriously good player for us. I think he will indeed, as BCFM believes, be a very good mid for us - from what I have seen.

Duncan was not as noticeable, but for some reason I reckon he will also be good player for us. So we do have some up and coming mids to take Ablett's and Ling's positions.

However Corey will probably go one or two more seasons (Chapman may also go in 2-3 years as well) - so we do need also to find another one or two mids in the next few seasons.

As far as the rucks go - I really liked what I saw in West in the finals. Very competitive, won his fair of hit outs and took a few over head grabs. As a second ruckman going occasionally forward - could be a real find.

Then its about Dawson. I have seen only limited vision of the player - but there is something to like about him. Size, strong in the contest and seems to move around the ground ok.

Just needs game time in the seniors - like 6 + rounds to get the feel of the big time - and we will all be in a better possie to know if, come finals, he can at least compete and break even with some of the better ruckman in the league. As that is what he will have to do. Break even or at least nullify the better ruckman - come finals for us to be a serious contender.

Ottens really played well quite often in finals for us - and it made a real difference. Cannot expect Dawson next season to be as dominant as Ottens was for us in finals past.

And Ling was an excellent contributor in the finals for us this season.

So I still reckon - looking at the backline, forward line and mids - given the players we have lost and Corey and Chappy 30 - this is the area most likely to consider more vulnerable than it has been in years.

If we could just find one extra mid to rotate thru the team from the guys coming thru next season - then I think we go a long way to to bolstering this group. Perhaps THunt might be a possibility or even Hogan - in a tagger type role ? - could be the ticket.

Just unsure who it will be - but just as long as we uncover another good mid - the list looks good enough to to give it a real crack in 2012.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I agree with the bolded,but think our ruck devision could be our Achilles in 2012 as it stands Simpson is the only no1 ruckman of any size,with West and Vardy better suited to the 2nd ruck role.
30 AFL games between them is not much to hang your hat on,even if the potential is there.
Ottens is a huge loss pity he couldn't go around one more year but thats life.It would be remiss of me not to even make mention of Blake, not every ones favorite player but a genuine no1 tap ruckman so thats two gone in the same year.
A long term injury to West or Simpson and were up the famous old creek and I expect the club know that. It will be interesting to see if they try to address it in the draft,I hope they don't still have Hawkins in their thinking.
Any way I think our list is still capable of a top four finish to answer the op's question.

Upfront, I would disagree on the bolded, granted West will play a lot of 2nd ruck next year but that's because of structural reasons (i.e. he can go well forward, Simpson at this point in time cant, therefore he has to play 1st ruck if he plays), West is quite capable of playing 1st ruck when he needs to, people assume he can't because of the height. I've watched enough VFL footy the last couple of years to see West regularly playing virtually the whole game in the ruck, as he has a good engine, and beating AFL listed ruckmen who are physically bigger than him, to know he can do it at AFL level if he has to. His improvement this year is a real boon for us given that we don't have Otto next year.

On ability I actually think our ruck division is quite good, and even with Otto, it's still better than say Hawthorn's for example. The issue is though, with ruck being the most physically demanding position, the young guys are talented, but can they handle the physical workload? Simpson for example, yes he's a big boy, but he's essentially been warehoused for the last 4 years, whereas this year he's going to have to play 20 games or more against very physical AFL ruckmen and cope with that. Will he be able to last that without burning out towards the back end, we will see? West in theory has been around the most years and should be in the best position to cope with the physical workload, although even he hasn't played more than a dozen games each year, which he will definitely have to do next year.

This is why it would have been ideal to have Otto there, to ensure that if the young ruckmen, though they are talented, struggle with the physical workload, that we've got Otto to rely on that he can at the pointy end of the season. That said, his heart clearly wasn't in going on next year, and so while I would have liked to see him stay on, he made the right decision.

The issue is compounded if Vardy can't do a lot of frontline rucking, or if he can but the club doesn't want to risk him in that role a lot next year, as then you can't even give West or Daws the 'general' once every few weeks that may well be needed to keep them fresh for the finals. Any LTI to any of the rucks and we're obviously in big big trouble. I would think Hawkins (well I hope) won't be considered as ruck depth ever again, he needs to be left where he is.

For those reasons I do expect one of our 2 rookie picks will probably be a mature age ruck, even if it's only someone around Dawson's age, someone who is capable of playing next year if we need them to, it does make sense.

Even with this issue though, I still think we'll make top 4 next year.

 

[Belisarius]

All good points PO.

Especially agree with your assessment re the need to have to manage Simpson over the season and probably use West a bit more often as a first ruckman.

And that is the concern unless Vardy or some other we recruit can take a senior game here or there to give Simpson, and to a lesser extent, West a rest.

God forbid an LTI to either Simpson or West.

Who knows ? - if we can somehow manage the ruck situation well and win enough games doing so to make top 4 - a Simpson/West combo might be prepared and fresh enough - and good enough in the finals to give us a shot at a flag. But it is a big ask for a ruck duo with less than 20 senior games between them - with no obvious back up as I write.

Consequently the midfield will be a little more suspect - and we need to replace Ling as well. So I still think that is the area in the team looks to be our main concern for 2012.

That is not to say it will not be a good line for us - as we still have quite a few gun mids - it is just that we are also somewhat looking to slowly but predictably give some younger guys some senior games as we are still going to lose an excellent bunch of players in the next 3-4 years.

If we truly want to break the mold and remain a flag contender for another 5 years - then we just have to blood quite a few players in that time frame as well - and come up trumps.

It starts big time next season - as I think we will need good seasons from West and Simpson. If that happened - wow ! Good recruiting and good management. However due to the inexperience of our ruck division in 2012 it is not a sure thing.

 

[couchy555]

If need be could we play Lonergan in the ruck? dont think he's had much experience there but he does have a bit of height. Im not confident with what we'll get out of Vardy next year, seeing as his surgery will surely put him behind in his preseason traning.

Though i never understand why clubs dont just let their players do a full preseason workload even when the season's underway? id rather have a full fit player come back into the side at round 8+ then half fit at round 1.

 

[meto]

If need be could we play Lonergan in the ruck? dont think he's had much experience there but he does have a bit of height. Im not confident with what we'll get out of Vardy next year, seeing as his surgery will surely put him behind in his preseason traning.

Though i never understand why clubs dont just let their players do a full preseason workload even when the season's underway? id rather have a full fit player come back into the side at round 8+ then half fit at round 1.

Lonergan has vital role in back 6 structure, he's as much the reason we won the flag as Tom Hawkins up the other end, definately leave him alone, would be a crazy move.

Vardy is primarily a keyposition player. A ruck role would always be secondary, he's a cover for West, Hawkins and Pods.

Why is Dawson Simpson at the club if he's not ready for ruck duties now? He's had long enough (4yrs) and is mature enough, either play the guy or trade him, coze now's his time, he's our only natural ruckman just at the minute.

On Vardy, the Club would develop his strength and aerobic capacities to 2011 levels or above. They'd have all his stats on record, so he'd have to satisfy the performance staff on his fitness issues, won't be a problem.
His issue to them would be any reaggrevation of the hip in their test processes. Fingers crossed no lingering problems and he pushes for selection early.

But having said that, I hope the club are flogging Simpson at the moment and getting into his ear, although he's been used sparingly, I think it's high time for him to go for it!

 

[Belisarius]

Forget Brown, Smedts even Guthrie. The young player that would give me the greatest smile if they played well would be Dawson Simpson.

If he fired it would probably make the biggest impact on the team success of any newbie next season IMO.

 

[CF]

I think we will still be very competitive next year despite the loss of personnel since the 2011 GF. I guess for me the biggest loss is Ling as I am not sure who will step up and be our main tagger now. Kelly/Bartel come to mind whom has the smarts and stamina for it. Ottens is a loss but not fatal considering how well our three young ruckmen are progressing.

I think we will have a nice balance of seasoned performers and new young blokes pushing up for selection. It's a good place for the club to be I think. Personnel wise we are OK but the loss in experience will take a toll eventually.

Top 4 is a possibility, top 8 definitely. I think the prospects or Premiership windows of Collingwood, Hawthorn, Carlton, & West Coast is probably a little better than ours in 2012 TBH. But we weren't expected to achieve much this year and we won the flag so it is always hard to predict anything in this game.

It all comes down to how our guys are travelling (injury wise) by the end of the season. Although I know the selection committee will do a great job again with our older players let's hope no really serious injuries occur (like knees etc) as they are what really hurt you. We were lucky this season (except for Menzel) that we got no major injury to a required AFL player at a stage during the season when it could have really hurt the teams chances.

We could cover Menzel OK but if such a bad injury occurs to Selwood, Bartel etc then that is going to create weaknesses that others will exploit.

 

[Seeds]

Lonergan has vital role in back 6 structure, he's as much the reason we won the flag as Tom Hawkins up the other end, definately leave him alone, would be a crazy move.

Vardy is primarily a keyposition player. A ruck role would always be secondary, he's a cover for West, Hawkins and Pods.

Why is Dawson Simpson at the club if he's not ready for ruck duties now? He's had long enough (4yrs) and is mature enough, either play the guy or trade him, coze now's his time, he's our only natural ruckman just at the minute.

On Vardy, the Club would develop his strength and aerobic capacities to 2011 levels or above. They'd have all his stats on record, so he'd have to satisfy the performance staff on his fitness issues, won't be a problem.
His issue to them would be any reaggrevation of the hip in their test processes. Fingers crossed no lingering problems and he pushes for selection early.

But having said that, I hope the club are flogging Simpson at the moment and getting into his ear, although he's been used sparingly, I think it's high time for him to go for it!

Really!!! see Vardy more as a ruckman myself. Very much in the John Barnes role. Vardy doesn't have the right frame to be key position player. At best will be a decent third tall in a pocket who can take a couple of grabs in the goal square.

 

[vivien]

What is Harry Taylor's down, who would replace him? Giles don't have the ability to be KPD yet?

 

[meto]

Really!!! see Vardy more as a ruckman myself. Very much in the John Barnes role. Vardy doesn't have the right frame to be key position player. At best will be a decent third tall in a pocket who can take a couple of grabs in the goal square.

Bout as good as Pat Ryder in the ruck, that's when Vardy actually becomes a regular, just hasn't got the body for it, at least ATM.
Looks to have the perfect Keypost frame to me, real CHF look about him would've thought?

Wouldn't risk rucking him to often with that hip thing, let the kid survive.
Surely he can play third tall forward or something?
Afterall we got West playing that 2nd ruck role just nicely now, and Westy's a bigger build than Vards at this stage, harder and more mature.

 

[Gogeelong]

We pick Bourke in the draft