2014 Draft Discussion

[SizeMatters]

heard whispers that we are seriously looking at Petracca. Leppa came from the Tigers and they generally drafted bolters and blokes that are AFL ready.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Anyone know how Retzy is going?

His stats are: 11 games, 22 goals, 2 bags of 5. Has played forward and back apparently.

 

[Swanny10]

Luey and Wright on the list together stinks of Luey and Longer on the same list. Too much of a cost for too little return. 2 ruck/forwards at that price is too much especially considering the outstanding form of Martin. Between Luey, Martin, Archie and West we have the forward ruck role covered for the next 5 years. Durdin's next 4 months could see him come into our calculations!

Except Wright is nothing like Leuey or Longer. So your comment makes no sense at all.

There would be no reason why we would look at Durdin he's not considered a top 5 pick

Is that according to our recruiters? Many have spoke of him as a top 5 pick. Personally I'll leave it up to our recruiters who watch 100's of games of these blokes to decide where they rate him.

heard whispers that we are seriously looking at Petracca. Leppa came from the Tigers and they generally drafted bolters and blokes that are AFL ready.

Source? Yourself?

 

[chopperduck]

I think the Wright talk will keep going in circles until we can see him play more, hopefully at FF in the TAC cup. People who are mainly against him, is because they see him as a ruck forward, and that is fair enough. I think the others who are happy see him as a forward, who is tall enough to pinch in the ruck if needed. Being he mainly played in the ruck during the champs, we need to see him up forward more to see just what kind of player he is.

 

[chopperduck]

heard whispers that we are seriously looking at Petracca. Leppa came from the Tigers and they generally drafted bolters and blokes that are AFL ready.

The reasoning of Leppa came from the Tigers takes all credibility away from that "source"

He was also previously at the Lions who like spending top picks on rucks. Also consider we dont have the scouts/recruiters/list managers at Tigers and I cant see any connection with Leppa being an assistant coach at Tigers meaning we suddenly change our entire drafting philosophy.

 

[chopperduck]

Whilst Petracca might be next best available, im not sure he overly need his type of player. Whilst he might turn into a mid, his strength has been as a medium marking forward.

We need more mid depth, but we need a bit of inside pace, which is why Hanley has been playing in the middle with Rocky and Redden I think. Those 2 boys are good, but they are quick, Hanley has the ability to get around a player then deliver the ball.

 

[Sanchez365]

Whilst Petracca might be next best available, im not sure he overly need his type of player. Whilst he might turn into a mid, his strength has been as a medium marking forward.

We need more mid depth, but we need a bit of inside pace, which is why Hanley has been playing in the middle with Rocky and Redden I think. Those 2 boys are good, but they are quick, Hanley has the ability to get around a player then deliver the ball.

With the disclaimer of having not seen any of the young guys play, I remember reading somewhere that petrecca plays like a strong marking medium forward in the jack darling mould. As opposes to the forward mid like Sam Mayes. No?

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Luey and Wright on the list together stinks of Luey and Longer on the same list. Too much of a cost for too little return. 2 ruck/forwards at that price is too much especially considering the outstanding form of Martin. Between Luey, Martin, Archie and West we have the forward ruck role covered for the next 5 years. Durdin's next 4 months could see him come into our calculations!

At what stage in his career junior or senior did Billy Longer ever show an ability up forward?
I would say that he was a liability when up forward, easily run off & pretty much uncompetitive. As he becomes a more seasoned player this could develop.

Not sure that the same can be said of Wright who has been impressive when left to play a role up forward for lengthy periods.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Whilst Petracca might be next best available, im not sure he overly need his type of player. Whilst he might turn into a mid, his strength has been as a medium marking forward.

We need more mid depth, but we need a bit of inside pace, which is why Hanley has been playing in the middle with Rocky and Redden I think. Those 2 boys are good, but they are quick, Hanley has the ability to get around a player then deliver the ball.

12 months ago the medium marking forward comment was correct. He did lead the stats & clearances for Vic Metro, won the Larke Medal & his TAC Cup games for 2014 as a midfielder have been impressive. Basically his strength has changed, and if anything the versatility makes him even more appealing.
He is more a dynamic player than Rocky & Redden, which would compliment our workman like midfield.

That said I understand where you are coming from. Unfortunately it has become apparent that Polec is the type of player that would have moulded well into our midfield, but that bird has flow.

Personally at this stage I am torn, between the drafting the KPF that we so desperately require & having access to the best midfielder in the draft. I guess all this shows that we have numerous itches to scratch. Many games in the TAC Cup to be played, and things have changed in the past based on these.

 

[blynd_freddie]

At what stage in his career junior or senior did Billy Longer ever show an ability up forward?
I would say that he was a liability when up forward, easily run off & pretty much uncompetitive. As he becomes a more seasoned player this could develop.

Not sure that the same can be said of Wright who has been impressive when left to play a role up forward for lengthy periods.

My memory suggests a 5min period against the bombers at a paper park nab challenge a couple of years ago - considering his total minutes played to date it's nothing to crow about but as you say as he becomes more seasoned... he has height/arm length and leap as his major assets - and I agree with said current liabilities.

Swans to clutch at straws and a cheap replacement for Buddy in 5 to 6 years time?

 

[rusty08]

I think the Wright talk will keep going in circles until we can see him play more, hopefully at FF in the TAC cup. People who are mainly against him, is because they see him as a ruck forward, and that is fair enough. I think the others who are happy see him as a forward, who is tall enough to pinch in the ruck if needed. Being he mainly played in the ruck during the champs, we need to see him up forward more to see just what kind of player he is.

Pretty sure he's been named at full forward this weekend, so that's a start.

At what stage in his career junior or senior did Billy Longer ever show an ability up forward?
I would say that he was a liability when up forward, easily run off & pretty much uncompetitive. As he becomes a more seasoned player this could develop.

Not sure that the same can be said of Wright who has been impressive when left to play a role up forward for lengthy periods.

agree. Not sure I'd class Luey as a ruck/forward either. Capable of resting there however wouldn't throw forward beside his name. Would need to improve his kicking for goal for start imo.

 

[whatboutbob]

Would be nice if at least one of Wright, Hammelmann or Uebergang takes the rest or the season by the scruff. If it is one of the academy lads who shines then I'd feel a lot more comfortable taking Petracca early. I think the more likely scenario is Wright stepping up with more time spent up forward, which may then bring McCartin into play for us.

Fingers crossed we're not all still wringing our hands in the days leading up to the draft.

 

[POBT]

I've still got a mindset that the Academy guys are long shots. Which is probably inaccurate given that our zone has probably shown over the years that it can produce at least one AFL quality player a year.

But I find it hard to come to grips with a notion that our Academy prospects will determine who we take with our first pick. It is a conservative attitude but I think I'd like us to simply pick our most preferred player and not worry about who else we've got coming to us.

 

[whatboutbob]

...the Academy guys are long shots.

I think that's the most likely result by a reasonable margin, but I'm not going to rule out the possibility that Petracca and one of Hammelmann and Uebergang both shine sufficiently in the next couple of months to give the club pause.

 

[jackess]

I've still got a mindset that the Academy guys are long shots. Which is probably inaccurate given that our zone has probably shown over the years that it can produce at least one AFL quality player a year.

But I find it hard to come to grips with a notion that our Academy prospects will determine who we take with our first pick. It is a conservative attitude but I think I'd like us to simply pick our most preferred player and not worry about who else we've got coming to us.

Given we draft from our academy in trade week it must have at least a small effect on who we draft. We could go into the draft already having added 2-3 from the academy and can then be more strategic depending on how we rate those academy selections and what picks we have in the draft.

 

[POBT]

I think that's the most likely result by a reasonable margin, but I'm not going to rule out the possibility that Petracca and one of Hammelmann and Uebergang both shine sufficiently in the next couple of months to give the club pause.

Yeah. It is not a rational line of thought. If someone finished the season like a Tippett or Riewoldt has at the local level, then of course we'd need to think seriously about what impact it has on our first pick strategy.

To be honest, if we end up overstocked with quality talls, I won't be too perturbed.

Given we draft from our academy in trade week it must have at least a small effect on who we draft. We could go into the draft already having added 2-3 from the academy and can then be more strategic depending on how we rate those academy selections and what picks we have in the draft.

Doesn't it depend on how highly we rate those players? The impact on our first pick changes quite dramatically if Hammelman is rated a first rounder compared to if he's considered a fringe selection.

 

[chopperduck]

I've still got a mindset that the Academy guys are long shots. Which is probably inaccurate given that our zone has probably shown over the years that it can produce at least one AFL quality player a year.

But I find it hard to come to grips with a notion that our Academy prospects will determine who we take with our first pick. It is a conservative attitude but I think I'd like us to simply pick our most preferred player and not worry about who else we've got coming to us.

This is exactly my thinking as well. I treat any and all academy players as if they will spend 2-3 years on the list and then get delisted. I just don't think we can afford to change our drafting strategy based on these players. Many of them are late converts, and whilst promising, are no sure bets of making the grade. Many promising players have come and gone over the years. We got Freeman last year, we will get Hammlemann this year (if not Uebergang as well), if only 1 of these guys pays off, then the academy has done its job. If we draft a Wright, and then have the likes of Close, Martin, West and Merrett all playing well enough to play a KPF role then we will have a good functioning forward line. If Hammelman and/or Freeman also turn up good, then we are going to have some spoils to trade off in a few years time, which is not a bad problem to have. The academy kids in general, if they come good but are surplus to needs and are traded, will probably bring in a higher draft pick than they were taken with.

It comes back to 1 simple thing to me. We have been after a KPF to take over from Brown for so long. We have tried landing a few FA players, we've tried trading for the likes of Hogan and none of it has worked. Over the past few drafts we haven't had picks that lined up with good enough talent, and we have addressed other areas getting the likes of Mayes, Paperone, Aish, Gardiner, Taylor, McStay, Robbo as well as a tall in Close. Before that the likes of Boyd and Patton have been snapped up by GWS and players that we would have had access too like Dixon gone to the Suns. We have waited, and tried, and waited, and now, we suddenly look like having a high draft pick, in a draft with some good KPF options.... Why the hell would we not draft the obvious need sitting right in front of our faces. Mids you can get in any draft, and with later picks (Rich, Mayes, Aish, Taylor, Redden, Rocky all examples). It isn't often you get access to one of the top 2 KPF in the draft. Whether or not he rucks doesn't matter if he has the ability to play forward. And i don't recall players like Longer in previous years kicking 6 goals in a half, most from outside 50. What doesn't make sense is that if Wright was 196cm and didn't play ruck in u18s everyone would be all over him. Just because he has ruck ability doesn't mean he needs to be tainted with the ruck/forward brush. And whilst he hasn't proven without doubt that he can play that KPF role, he has certainly shown a lot more up forward than most prospects over the past few years have.

 

[chopperduck]

Yeah. It is not a rational line of thought. If someone finished the season like a Tippett or Riewoldt has at the local level, then of course we'd need to think seriously about what impact it has on our first pick strategy.

To be honest, if we end up overstocked with quality talls, I won't be too perturbed.



Doesn't it depend on how highly we rate those players? The impact on our first pick changes quite dramatically if Hammelman is rated a first rounder compared to if he's considered a fringe selection.

These are the key parts to the way you and I both think with academy players. If you have a genuine top first round talent on your hands, like the Swans do with Heeney, then i think you can draft around that. I don't think you can do it with unproven players though. I am also on the same line of thinking, if we happen to sudden have 4-5 KPF well then pop the champagne because we haven't been able to land 1 for the past 5 years, it will be a refreshing change. And as I mentioned above, we can get some trade value back on them.

The other thing I think we need to consider with QLD tall talent is that they usually take a bit longer. Even the likes of Tippett didn't go bang straight away. I don't think we can confidently say a QLD tall will be a player in 3 years and draft around it. We can only hope and develop. The next few crops of players we will have had in the academy for longer periods, and will probably know a lot more about them and might be able to make better calls about their ability as well.

 

[Matt_BL]

I'm not against us drafting a tall forward but I'm not sure whether using a top pick is the right way to go about it. As it stands we'd be investing pick 2 in a 5 year proposition - whoever that may be. I'm not sure that's going to be worth it given we have a number of other options to solve our forward line woes. Apart from Franklin no other genuine forward I can recall was a high draft pick, which I think the trend says it might be worth to look a little more speculatively with a 20-40 pick for a forward rather than using our top 10 for no guaranteed result.

I would rather us do what Melbourne did and look to trade for some 3rd -5th year players in the system and get say 2 former first round picks from somewhere like GWS then use our later picks to look at some Academy kids and back in Close, Paps, Freeman and Paine to hold down a somewhat makeshift forward line, where Paparone is that tall Staker type roaming a wingman.

I'm thinking we might lose Polkinghorne and Raines possibly Lisle aswell so our demographic I think will be a little too young without the concessions GC and GWS have had to get the best talent.

At the moment I would build on what we have - if we are still poor in 2015 fair enough take the best KPF but I'd get a finishing mid with a great kick which should straighten up our forward entries making it easier to score.

 

[POBT]

Apart from Franklin no other genuine forward I can recall was a high draft pick, which I think the trend says it might be worth to look a little more speculatively with a 20-40 pick for a forward rather than using our top 10 for no guaranteed result.

Apologies for cherry picking your post but the opposite of this as actually true. Almost all of the elite tall forwards were taken with high picks or under rules like Father-Son. Riewoldt (x2), Pavlich, Franklin, Roughead etc

 

[chopperduck]

At the moment I would build on what we have - if we are still poor in 2015 fair enough take the best KPF but I'd get a finishing mid with a great kick which should straighten up our forward entries making it easier to score.

And what if we finish with pick 4 next year and there is only 1 half decent KPF to take, who is well gone by our pick. This is my point, this is the first draft i can remember where we have a pick right where we need it to take a top talent KPF. Next year we can get a mid who would probably be just as good as a mid this year, but we might not get another crack at a 2m tall 100kg+ guy who can kick goals accurately from outside 50. Mids also come on a lot quicker, even if we did get a KPF next year, than it has just delayed getting that player we still need for a year for nothing.

 

[chopperduck]

Agree with POBT again, the best forwards going around currently were still top talent of their draft classes, a few of them were F/S picks though. People have to remember a draft pick means nothing on its own. It doesn't represent the skill level of a player, it is simply the order at which you get to select a player from the given draft class. Pick 2 means we get to select from all bar 1 player from this years draft class, and gives us a chance to select the top talent. You can't select what isn't there in that given year. Pick 2 this year might get you a KPF, next year it might not.

 

[a mayes ing]

Imo, l don't even think we will get a choice. I can see us winning another game or 2 getting us ahead of the roadblock at pick 6/7.

 

[Matt_BL]

Apologies I forgot about Roughead but the question then really depends on Leppa and the coaching staff and the game style we play.

Theoretically if we want to defend like Freo attack like Hawthorn both teams have different setups upfront. I would argue Hawks have the elite swing man in Roughead, accurate tall in gunston and elite small in Breust. Freo have a veteran in Pav 2 good small forwards in ballantye and Walters and goal kicking mids.

I think we would look for a balance but even with Port they've basically got Schulz who can kick straight but he gets the ball on platter each week. Just not sure we absolutely require a gun KPF that can be justified with pick 2 considering some academy propositions + those outside Wright and McCartin.

That being said I think the most appropriate question would be 'if not now, when?' It may be just better to bite the bullet this year and get our KPF at the sacrifice of an elite mid which I think we need to get a player that Polec was supposed to be.

 

[a mayes ing]

Apologies I forgot about Roughead but the question then really depends on Leppa and the coaching staff and the game style we play.

Theoretically if we want to defend like Freo attack like Hawthorn both teams have different setups upfront. I would argue Hawks have the elite swing man in Roughead, accurate tall in gunston and elite small in Breust. Freo have a veteran in Pav 2 good small forwards in ballantye and Walters and goal kicking mids.

I think we would look for a balance but even with Port they've basically got Schulz who can kick straight but he gets the ball on platter each week. Just not sure we absolutely require a gun KPF that can be justified with pick 2 considering some academy propositions + those outside Wright and McCartin.

That being said I think the most appropriate question would be 'if not now, when?' It may be just better to bite the bullet this year and get our KPF at the sacrifice of an elite mid which I think we need to get a player that Polec was supposed to be.

You have to realise that Queensland, where Hammelmann is playing, is in Division 2. The defenders playing on him aren't as quality as the ones playing on Wright. Who knows, if Hammelmann is playing on an AFL quality defender then l doubt, at this stage or in the next year or 2, he would be of any use.

Wright too me, looks like he could almost start straight away.