List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Trade FA Megathread

[HayesTheChamp]

No he seems a completely different sort of person. Billings, Dunstan, Templeton etc are clearly the future of the club. As are Webster, Hickey, Roberton, Wright (maybe), Delaney, Bruce, Steven, Lee (maybe).

I am not proposing we get rid of all kids, I'm just pointing out that if we really want to win a Prem and have a team packed with guns, we'll likely need to trade some younger players who aren't as key to the team structure.

So I gather you're best mates with Dunstan and Acres? Cool.

 

[BrianSpeaking]

Blake Acres isn't going anywhere, the kid is so rapt to be at the Saints, you "think" he is the homely type??? Please, just give it a rest.

In regards to Longer, I reckon he is a battler at best, I don't think he plays long term at our club or any other.

 

[HayesTheChamp]

Except he's not a country boy

I vaguely remember Acres saying he had moved out of home by like the age of 16?

 

[HayesTheChamp]

Blake Acres isn't going anywhere, the kid is so rapt to be at the Saints, you "think" he is the homely type??? Please, just give it a rest.

In regards to Longer, I reckon he is a battler at best, I don't think he plays long term at our club or any other.

I think Longer is just our insurance policy - i.e. if he becomes a gun, great, if not, we're banking on Lew Pierce and Holmes and any future rookies we might pick up to fill the void, when we trade him.

 

[ike2112]

No I don't know anything about Dunstan other than the Saints vids and pre-draft stuff. So that all suggests captain material, 200 gamer etc.

Acres I'm basing off something that someone I know at Sandy told me - their first impression. Of course that can change, but that's what I based my opinion on. And since it's just a thought, an opinion, based on someone's impression of the kid then I thought it was fair enough.
This is still a forum where you can post up what you think might happen, isn't it?

 

[dewah07]

No I don't know anything about Dunstan other than the Saints vids and pre-draft stuff. So that all suggests captain material, 200 gamer etc.

Acres I'm basing off something that someone I know at Sandy told me - their first impression. Of course that can change, but that's what I based my opinion on. And since it's just a thought, an opinion, based on someone's impression of the kid then I thought it was fair enough.
This is still a forum where you can post up what you think might happen, isn't it?

you can post whatever yiou like but then you have to expect critisim when you post crap like trading out our future.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

I'm calling it now... the big footy trend from 2016 onwards is sides having three athletic 200cm+ monsters that roam all over the ground.

This of course hsppens after St. Kilda storms to the 2016 flag on the back of dominant seasons from Hickey, Longer & Stanley.



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[Curious George]

Which one is a forward - or are you thinking we'll play 2 true rucks?

I actually think 2 rucks, not for all games, but I think in the future it will work, Hickey can't ruck out a full game and Stanley isn't a ruckman IMO, best suited to him playing forwards. Longer is going to be a gun, both have the a ability to be no.1 ruck men

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Stockbroker is a great analogy.
You buy low (Longer for a mid-20s pick) and then when you have too much invested in a similar spread of assets (2 tap ruckmen in their early-mid 20s, neither of whom can play forward), you sell for a profit (Longer for pick 8, for example).

I think the Longer trade was a bonus for Pelchen and not part of the plan. Now he has 2 chances to end up with a really good young tap ruck. And whichever doesn’t win the starting spot, is great trade currency.

I was thinking more along the lines of you recommend I buy Rio Tinto shares when they were $20 & sell when they get to $23 so I can buy a highly speculative tech stock!

Once again Pelchen's comment about getting further draft selections has been misinterpreted. It was 6 first round selections over a 3 year period (incl last year). 3 of those 6 were taken last year & some believe that Longer's unexpected addition is worth another.

That is why I don't think we will be very active at all during trade period. Maybe only try to move on fringe players like Siposs who may give us a 3rd round selection at best.

 

[Curious George]

I think Longer is just our insurance policy - i.e. if he becomes a gun, great, if not, we're banking on Lew Pierce and Holmes and any future rookies we might pick up to fill the void, when we trade him.

I don't think Longer is 'our insurance policy' his a former top 10 pick, built body, defiantly got what it takes. Hickey and McEvoy played together last year, whats the difference between Hickey and Longer?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I'm calling it now... the big footy trend from 2016 onwards is sides having three athletic 200cm+ monsters that roam all over the ground.

This of course hsppens after St. Kilda storms to the 2016 flag on the back of dominant seasons from Hickey, Longer & Stanley.



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Trouble is there are less of these guys and they will be less durable.
Their bones and ligaments will have higher loads on them to do the same work.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I don't think Longer is 'our insurance policy' his a former top 10 pick, built body, defiantly got what it takes. Hickey and McEvoy played together last year, whats the difference between Hickey and Longer?

Lots of things happened last year. Didn't mean it was good.

 

[ike2112]

I was thinking more along the lines of you recommend I buy Rio Tinto shares when they were $20 & sell when they get to $23 so I can buy a highly speculative tech stock!

Top-10 draft picks aren't highly speculative stock, they're what's likely to bring you a truly elite player. Say we draft Brayshaw. You wouldn't give up Newnes and a 2nd rounder to get Durdin or one of the other handful of top KPPs in this draft?

Once again Pelchen's comment about getting further draft selections has been misinterpreted. It was 6 first round selections over a 3 year period (incl last year). 3 of those 6 were taken last year & some believe that Longer's unexpected addition is worth another.

Look disagree with my opinion all you want, I don't mind that (although people outright saying it's crap is a bit needlessly offensive).
But don't give me this pish about me misinterpreting Pelchen.

Here's the letter: http://www.saints.com.au/news/2013-10-11/pelchens-open-letter-to-members
And here's the statement:
"Our strategy includes increasing our draft activity by 50% in the first 3 rounds of the AFL National Draft over the next four years. Initially, our plan was to secure three selections inside 20 at this year's draft - an outcome we remain determined to achieve prior to the end of the 2013 AFL Trade Period."

He only makes reference to the first round when he discussed the initial kick-start, which was 3 first rounders in 2013 which they undoubtedly at the time of writing pretty much knew they'd achieved. The letter hit my inbox barely 24 hours after they traded Big-Boy; they'd have known then that the Hawks deal was including a swap of the additional Buddy comp pick - they would have been pretty certain that Buddy wasn't going to garner top comp (if he did then I think Hawthorn would have arranged the deal to give us something else instead). Remember it was then many days later before it was officially confirmed we got the other 1st rounder, but Pelchen already knew he had it in the bank when he (very cleverly) publicly set himself the aim.
I digress...
Increasing by 50%, first 3 rounds, next four years. So that's 4 drafts x 3 rounds = 12 picks. Increase by 50% = 18 picks.
I'd say for 2013 whilst they only had the 3 picks in that space, I would say Longer counts towards it as an unexpected bonus, and so does Eli since they had him ranked to go in the top 30 or so. So I'd go with saying they bagged 5 of their intended 18 this year.

That means 9 picks left to use in the next 3 drafts at the moment, but their aim is 13 - i.e. they need to find 4 more draft picks from somewhere. Ideally good ones.
Disagree with my opinion but don't make out that I'm outright lying when the facts are there in black and white!

 

[ike2112]

Also... consider that we are recruiting all of those players (that's 18 draft picks plus whatever trading and FA we do), to be part of our finals push in 2018 perhaps but certainly in our hopeful Grand Final team in 2020.
Of our starting 22 on that fine September day, I'd say there's a fairly high chance that maybe 12-15 of the 22 aren't on the list right now. So at some point whilst we all have our favourites in the current team (and I'm so excited about the rebuild that I've been up daft hours to watch every game and have Friday morning off work to watch the team in Wellington) I am realistic enough to reason that the majority of them will be gone when we truly contend again, so I'm not so attached that I can't see any of them being sacrificed or any of them even wanting to move for whatever reason.

I am really excited about Billings, Dunstan, Webster, Saunders, Hickey, Templeton etc. But I'm also hopeful we find gems that will push our list to a higher performance level so that we do really contend for a flag.

 

[ike2112]

you can post whatever yiou like but then you have to expect critisim when you post crap like trading out our future.

It's a post of what I think will happen, not my desire/wants.

Don't think there's a need to say it's crap. I don't tell you that your predictions are crap.

Trading 3-4 players. Think I mentioned:
Either of Newnes/Saunders (on basis that we can get a great deal and we'd use the pick on a major need; KPP in a good draft)
Longer (on basis Hickey become a legend and Longer perhaps expendible)
Ross (on basis of him perhaps being fairly replaceable)
Acres (if he wanted to go home; if he doesn't obviously we keep him)

 

[bird_man]

It's a post of what I think will happen, not my desire/wants.

Don't think there's a need to say it's crap. I don't tell you that your predictions are crap.

Trading 3-4 players. Think I mentioned:
Either of Newnes/Saunders (on basis that we can get a great deal and we'd use the pick on a major need; KPP in a good draft)
Longer (on basis Hickey become a legend and Longer perhaps expendible)
Ross (on basis of him perhaps being fairly replaceable)
Acres (if he wanted to go home; if he doesn't obviously we keep him)

We've just traded away about a third of our future. Wouldn't we be better just using the draft picks we have to add to our young list?

Pelchin has said he wants to get more early draft picks, but he does not say anything about trading away our youth for them.

 

[stkildathunda]

We should go after Jake Carlile from the Bombers and actually tell him we'll play him in his right position...'down back! Would have been All Australian last year if they kept him down there.

 

[ike2112]

We've just traded away about a third of our future. Wouldn't we be better just using the draft picks we have to add to our young list?

It's 3, maybe 4 players. Out of about 30 - the 15 we're yet to sign and the 15 or so already on the list with a decent chance to play finals footy in 2018-22.
I realise it's probably a stretch to suggest Newnes would go. But really you can't imagine Longer or Ross getting moved on if they're not best 22 in two years time?

 

[Rors]

Newnes has already played more games than the bloke who left us (Lynch) to get him:

Newnes - 30 games in 3 seasons
Tom Lynch - 29 games in 6 seasons

And i'm sure i'm not the only one that thinks that Newnes is a massive asset to have in our team considering 1) he can win his own ball (a very underestimated quality to have), 2) he can play complete shut-down type role & sacrifice his game for the team, 3) can easily be rotated through the midfield, 4) has great leadership skills & will probably be added to the leadership squad within the next 2 years

 

[felsty]

Ike love your work and love the theoreticals you throw up. Personally I don't agree but what I will agree with you is that something has to be lost to be gained in terms of quality players, but I think the club will look a bit more critically at who they delist or move on.. In terms of who should stay and go I think it's a really tough call.. If you are wanting to take 3 guys away from the list every year at least it's going to be tough but I think retirements will help

Dunny is the only one from the main list I would say is on his last legs, coupled with the retirement of Lenny but more will have to leave by the end of this year let alone the next few, but I would rather see guys like TDL, Milera and I hate to say it buts guys like Jones, Maister and Simpkin. I think the problem is we are at this space where those guys would be great with the retirements coming up but I honestly can't see Schneider, Fisher, Gilbert, Dempster retiring for at least another 2-3 years, then again I don't see how we can't trade some players when Eli, Mav need to be upgraded and Shenton and Mini need to as well. I have a feeling we won't upgrade Shenton and Mini maybe upgrade Eli and leave Mav on for another year before upgrading. Perhaps it involves delisting TDL only to be rerookied or something like that.

ATM the only changes I can see are Lenny and Dunnell retired and delisted and then Eli needs to take one of their spots. I would hate to see someone like Murdoch, Sipposs delisted but when trawling through our senior list, apart from a few of the 26-30 year olds that we know won't make it, there's not much else.

People talking down to Ike need to go to our website and look at our list and ask themselves where are the spots going to open up, because ATM it's the hardest job in the world

 

[L_W_P]

I reckon:
2014 - trade Newnes and 2nd round for 1st round pick
2014 - trade Seb Ross for 2nd round pick
2014 - delist Siposs, TDL
2015 - trade Sean Dempster for late 1st/early 2nd round pick (if not already done in 2014)
2015 - delist Murdoch, White, Holmes/Pierce (maybe both)
2016 - trade Billy Longer for 1st round pick
2016 - trade Blake Acres for 1st round pick
2016 - delist ????

.

Holy
****ing
Shit

I know everyone is entitled to an opinion but that is some extreme work right there.

In 2 years we would only have Hickey left on the list as a ruck? Do we draft more young rucks to replace the ones you'd delist/trade or are we trying to buy one through FA?

Ross and White were both openly declared long term options. Seb was noted to be very much like cousin Jobe in that it was going to take him 3+ years to show something.

Its bold man, I'll give you that at least.

 

[bird_man]

I'm happy for TDL and/or Milera getting delisted to make room. We have plenty of young midfield/forward types and I really can't see these two getting much of a go. They would only be there for depth.

 

[Persevering Saint]

If somebody had said we'd lose Macca and Dal this time last year, we would have been up in arms. None of us are complaining now. There's no reason that, where there is an excess of talent in a particular position or role, we don't seek to trade quality to get quality, for a position or role in which we are deficient.

At the end of the day, I think that's all ike is saying.

 

[Rors]

If somebody had said we'd lose Macca and Dal this time last year, we would have been up in arms. None of us are complaining now. There's no reason that, where there is an excess of talent in a particular position or role, we don't seek to trade quality to get quality, for a position or role in which we are deficient.

At the end of the day, I think that's all ike is saying.

TBH I wouldn't have been complaining.... I've always thought Big Boy was a rubbish ruckman who's great at taking an intercept mark in the back half & knew that someone would pay overs for him - think about it, do you really think he is worth 2 end of 1st round picks plus another player? Seriously, did you rate him that high? Cos i certainly didnt.

And as for Dal Santo, wasnt really fussed if we kept him or not, but knew he, like Macca, would carry a lot of currency for a team that really wanted him.

By Macca & Dal being moved on, we've brought in Savage, Delaney, Longer, Acres & Dunstan.

And the funny thing is, we look a far far better team without Dal & Macca. I know a lot has to do with the coach to, but also never underestimate the importance of youthful exuberance & the hold no fears approach this brings to a team!

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Disagree Persy... Many of us were very keen to see the club be aggressive at trade time as we could see the precarious position that the list was in. Macca.& Dal were 2 of the handful of valuable commodities that we had.

Ike I will give you the 'Pelchen being misinterpreted' line. Thr letter that we all received was sent immediately after Macca was traded (when the official deal was only Savage & pick 18). It was before pick 19 was added. Before Longer, Bruce & Delaney were acquired & before Dunstan, Acres, Templeton & Weller were drafted.

I don't think the club could have wished for a better outcome in the month that followed that letter.

Of course you are entitled to your opinion & I'm definitely not attacking you for it. My opinion is that the club's rebuild is ahead of schedule in terms of the talent that they have been able to add in the past few years.

I absolutely can't see any of the players you have mentioned being traded in the near future. I could provide plenty of top 10 picks that have been fails so trading a gun kid like Newnes would be a diabolical move. Hell the club used him 18 months ago to try to persuade Caddy to sign with us. Highly regarded, will be a long term member of the leadership group if not Captain in the next few years!

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