2015 Brownlow

[fredd]

It doesn't mean someone else out there couldn't have a more accurate algorithm in play.....

And given markets are going to be manipulated by the demand of the punter, it could make for an opportunity to take advantage of the market....

It doesn't mean it's impossible to profit on the Brownlow but that's not the point that's been made here. All that's being identified is the fact that the Brownlow betting landscape has changed dramatically since 2010 and that there are plenty of punters and betting services who haven't adapted to this change and are still citing 2010 results for why they will be profitable this year and in future years.

In my opinion, if you do put the time and effort into Brownlow betting in today's markets for the purpose of profit (as opposed to a couple of bets for fun) the biggest adjustment you need to make is in your expectation in profit margins. 2010 was a freak year where the bookies got a few things wrong and the rest of us were very lucky with results (you hear plenty of "I was one vote away from $xxx profit", but you don't hear much of in the way of "I was one vote away from a $0 return"). As a result of 2010 there are plenty of punters who bet into the available markets aiming for results in the way of 500% ROI and as a result, even if their basis for placing the bets is pretty good end up losing out on the night.

 

[Skip_25]

It doesn't mean it's impossible to profit on the Brownlow but that's not the point that's been made here. All that's being identified is the fact that the Brownlow betting landscape has changed dramatically since 2010 and that there are plenty of punters and betting services who haven't adapted to this change and are still citing 2010 results for why they will be profitable this year and in future years.

In my opinion, if you do put the time and effort into Brownlow betting in today's markets for the purpose of profit (as opposed to a couple of bets for fun) the biggest adjustment you need to make is in your expectation in profit margins. 2010 was a freak year where the bookies got a few things wrong and the rest of us were very lucky with results (you hear plenty of "I was one vote away from $xxx profit", but you don't hear much of in the way of "I was one vote away from a $0 return"). As a result of 2010 there are plenty of punters who bet into the available markets aiming for results in the way of 500% ROI and as a result, even if their basis for placing the bets is pretty good end up losing out on the night.

Soo this is why I lose all my money!

 

[Mudeo]

Don't bother. The special is a con.

How so?

 

[KardiniaPark]

What's your point?

My bad, I meant to be clearer. I was trying to say that about Round 19 he was $8 from memory. Hope this clears things up.

 

[Zealbee]

How so?

You make a profit if Hannebery wins and you get your money back if he comes second to Fyfe. Any other result and you lose. If Fyfe wins and Dangerfield comes second you have lost etc etc. Only really worthwhile if you are convinced Hannebery will win it outright, in which case you should just chase the best odds. They are just trying to lure punters into placing bets on a market that has long lost it's value IMO.

 

[the_big_sav]

Ive gone 5/6 leg multis of

Thompson (without danger)
Beams
Murphy
Pendles
Mundy (without fyfe)
Mitchell
Armitage
Gray

Then 6/7 leg multis of the same but including shiel and half the stake on each multi

Fyfe/mitchell quinella @ $8
Mitchell top 5 @ $1.70

Just waiting now for group and h2h to able to multi

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

while i've taken a number of team vote multis around my own leaderboard, one still strikes as being pretty reasonable value, through crownbet:

Swan/Rischitelli/Treloar/Macrae - $721 per $1

 

[happy_eagle]

while i've taken a number of team vote multis around my own leaderboard, one still strikes as being pretty reasonable value, through crownbet:

Swan/Rischitelli/Treloar/Macrae - $721 per $1

Treloar I reckon will be the one that cancels that out
Still good value

 

[getthefooty]

Can anyone confirm what happens with ties for team leader markets?

Anyone?

 

[happy_eagle]

Anyone?

What happens when in most markets when there is a tie?

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone?

Your payout is halved.

 

[getthefooty]

Your payout is halved.

Thanks.

 

[stuziman]

It doesn't mean someone else out there couldn't have a more accurate algorithm in play.....

And given markets are going to be manipulated by the demand of the punter, it could make for an opportunity to take advantage of the market....

Good call, definitely opportunities to be had for the astute punter. Just saying the odds originally set by the bookmaker will be more accurate and we won't ever see masses profiting like 2010 from team multis.

 

[stuziman]

I wonder what ever happened to the TAB AFL trader post 2010 brownlow night? Hopefully he took up gardening and didn't become part of a garden.

 

[happy_eagle]

Bets (SB) that I like the look of
R5 Lead
Either Shiel (4.75) Hannerbery (5.00) or Mundy (21.00)

Top 10
Lachie Neale 3.25

Leader in last 10 rounds
Gaff - 6.00

To Poll in most games
Priddis 2.35
Hannebery 7.00

Quinellas
Fyfe+either of Priddis, Mitchell or Hannebery

Team leaders
Beams+Heppell 2.40
C.Ward+M.Murphy 2.56
Ziebell(minus Goldstein)+Hannebery 3.12
Ward/Shiel GWS Quinella - 2.40

Captains Group
Hodge - 2.75

Elite Handicap
Mundy+8.5 9.00

 

[X_box_X]

Trying for a middle.

$500 Mitchell U24.0 votes at $1.80 w Topsport
$265 Mitchell O22.5 votes at $1.76 w Ozbet
$160 Mitchell O24.5 votes at $2.75 w Tattsbet
O24.5 = $18.60 LOSS
U22.5 = $25 LOSS
23 = $441.40 PROFIT
24 = $41.40 PROFIT

 

[iluvparis]

Isn't that like 20/1 of hitting the exact vote total? Doesn't scream value.

 

[X_box_X]

Isn't that like 20/1 of hitting the exact vote total? Doesn't scream value.

1 in 10 chance, IMO. He's likely to poll between 14-27 votes, with more weight being applied to a range between 18-25.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

I knew Sportsbet were ****heads but ffs

 

[X_box_X]

Haha. Pathetic.

 

[Johanpetro]

while i've taken a number of team vote multis around my own leaderboard, one still strikes as being pretty reasonable value, through crownbet:

Swan/Rischitelli/Treloar/Macrae - $721 per $1

How confident are you on Rishcitelli? He is literally the worst rated option on CrownBet at $11 ( Any other player not listed at $10)

PS: Not saying he has no chance, just wondering how confident you are on him. Cheers.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

How confident are you on Rishcitelli? He is literally the worst rated option on CrownBet at $11 ( Any other player not listed at $10)

PS: Not saying he has no chance, just wondering how confident you are on him. Cheers.

I have him on 8, his first half of the season was pretty sound. the risk on Dixon and lynch is they will virtually need 2 guaranteed BOG's to get to 7 at best and they may slip back to 2s in their big games. with such a low tally likely to win the Suns, shorter odds hold a fair bit of risk, I'm.comfortable with rischitelli

 

[bph25]

Players I'm comfortable with
Thompson with out danger
Beams
Murphy
Heppell
Selwood
Mitchell
Armitage
Hannebery
Priddis

Good value and either in front equal or a vote behind

Swan
Mundy with out fyfe
Jones
Ziebell/Higgins tough team to pick
Gray
Martin
Ward
BoNtempelli/ dahlhaus blanket finish but I like the two eye catchers

Very tough year. Good luck if having a go

 

[Armesy]

Trying for a middle.

$500 Mitchell U24.0 votes at $1.80 w Topsport
$265 Mitchell O22.5 votes at $1.76 w Ozbet
$160 Mitchell O24.5 votes at $2.75 w Tattsbet
O24.5 = $18.60 LOSS
U22.5 = $25 LOSS
23 = $441.40 PROFIT
24 = $41.40 PROFIT

Does this bet include 24?

 

[KardiniaPark]

.5U on macrae and swan most votes for either club @ $18.75 (crown)

both clubs