2015 Ladder Prediction

[ShanDog]

It's very early I know, but I have been perusing the '2015 Ladder Predictions' thread on the main board and I can't believe how low the rest of BF thinks we will finish. I would much rather be underrated by all the posters here (it makes it all the better if we exceed expectation and can rub their nay-saying noses into their nay-saying wee puddles), but it's even lower than what I would expect.

I would say that on average, BF reckon we will finish around 15th. A few have given us the spoon, and besides a few Carlton supporters, I reckon there would be less than I can count on one hand who have us playing finals.

Personally, I see it playing out like this:

1. North
2. Sydney
3. Port
4. Hawthorn
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Carlton
8. Collingwood
---------------
9. Fremantle
10. Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. West Coast
13. GWS
14. Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. Essendon
18. St Kilda

For no other reason than to see the difference between how we think we will go and how others think we will go, throw your ladder up for 2015, or perhaps just post where you think we will finish (no hedging bets by selecting a range like 7-12!)

 

[Aphrodite]

Top 4 or GTFO Shan

 

[etsal1]

I have no idea where we will finish because I can't judge how much we'll improve compared to others.

However - I do think we will improve next year but not sure how it will translate into wins and losses.

We can't underestimate the advantage of having a fit list. Weeded out the ones who weren't willing to put in. We've really only lost Waite in terms of players who had a meaningful contribution last year and I think our INs can cover Waite's OUT.

We might stay around the same position as this year but I still think we can improve despite not increasing number of wins.

 

[HARKER]

Wouldn't even try to put a ladder together right now.

I'll wait until just before the start of the year and look at the injuries per club.

 

[ShanDog]

I have no idea where we will finish because I can't judge how much we'll improve compared to others.

However - I do think we will improve next year but not sure how it will translate into wins and losses.

We can't underestimate the advantage of having a fit list. Weeded out the ones who weren't willing to put in. We've really only lost Waite in terms of players who had a meaningful contribution last year and I think our INs can cover Waite's OUT.

We might stay around the same position as this year but I still think we can improve despite not increasing number of wins.

I am pretty similar in my assessment too - I think we are improving a lot in many ways right now with list management, direction for the future, balancing the list and prioritising leadership and competitiveness in our trades/drafts. Not sure how much of that will manifest in extra wins in 2015, but I am optimistic.

 

[ShanDog]

Wouldn't even try to put a ladder together right now.

I'll wait until just before the start of the year and look at the injuries per club.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Would hope our aim is finals for 2015.

Will leave it at that at this stage.

 

[Jeremias]

It's too far out for me to put my ladder down but I'll copy in a post today from another thread which is of relevance to this discussion.

I don't believe the competition has ever been as even as it is currently. That being the case I think there are 5 standout clubs who form the top tier in the league but you can just about throw a blanket over the rest of the competition.

Hawthorn, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Geelong I'd have as the best sides in the league and I see a clear gap between that group and the rest of the competition. Those clubs finished top 5 in 2014 so I'm not sticking my neck out but I really can't see that changing next season.

Many are of the belief that Geelong no longer remain in that group looking forward and whilst I agree they appear to be slipping back into the chasing pack I still have them clinging onto that top group for at least one more year.

Last year clearly the two weakest sides in the league were Melbourne and St Kilda and I don't expect that to change much in 2015. Both those clubs are a fair way back and have some catching up to do. Expect improvement to come from them but I'm not convinced it will come at the same rate, or quicker, than the clubs they're chasing.

The remaining 11 clubs are incredibly even and you could make a case for just about every one of them to finish in the top 8. Carlton are definitely placed in that group as a team who has the talent to play finals but are up against it with a logjam of teams competing for a very limited number of places.

 

[zeeCFC]

^^ Check the self promoshe!

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

Most others have us around 14 to 16th.......
Don't have much to live up to.
Hope we can give them a bit of a surprise next year.
Hoping to push into the eight and be competitive week in, week out.

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

It's too far out for me to put my ladder down but I'll copy in a post today from another thread which is of relevance to this discussion.

I do believe I have just witnessed the first ever third person post!!!

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

At the moment I would confidently predict we will finish somewhere between 1st and 18th!

 

[goreds]

Above Essendon*

 

[zeeCFC]

Above Essendon*

what is above 'exclusion'?

 

[zeeCFC]

I do believe I have just witnessed the first ever third person post!!!

1 Alert, Jeremias just quoted your post, Jeremias

 

[goreds]

what is above 'exclusion'?

Daylight!!

 

[BM123]

8th to 14th. Side hasn't proved near enough to suggest otherwise.

 

[Amers]

Top 8.


Just like I did last year!

 

[footyfan1978]

Nature of the league is so even in general. Easy to be bottom 4 if a few things go bad like injuries and easy to jump to top 4 at other end as the standard is not out of reach when the talent spread so thin across 18 clubs. You only need 3 or 4 or your best guns to fire and you can go places quite quickly. There are some sides that are very good but no super sides in the league. A season of getting best 22 on field most weeks generally means you go quite well.

I wish I could say first but I have no real confidence in how we are being run. I can only hope Kruezer, Gibbs, Murphy, Menzel, Judd, Buckley, Casboult, Henderson, Rowe, Jamison, Walker, Simpson, Thomas, Jaksch, Carrazzo, Bell, Yarran, Tuohy, Tutt, Everitt, Docherty, Curnow, Whiley and Sheahan play 20 plus games each as then you just never know your luck come finals time. In all probability we'll probably be in the middle, which I wish was not the case.

 

[Jatz]

Why North so high ShanDog ?

Can only see them as having a similar year to this one. Possibly top 4 but still a rung below the top teams.

 

[Love the Drake]

Top 6 in no particular order:
Hawks
Syd
Port
Freo
North
Gold Coast

6-12 in no particular order:
Carlton
Geelong
WC
Richmond
Collingwood
Adelaide

13-18 in no particular order:
Melbourne
Stkilda
GWS
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Essendon

 

[I bleed Blue]

I'll have an early go at it. Will post up one just before the season starts too.

Port
Sydney
Hawks
Freo
North
Adelaide
Richmond
Gold Coast

Carlton
Collingwood
West Coast
Geelong
Brisbane
Essendon
GWS
bulldogs
Melbourne
St Kilda

 

[gandaal]

1. Port Adelaide
2. Sydney
3. Fremantle
4. Gold Coast
5. Hawthorn
6. Geelong
7. Brisbane
8. North
9. Richmond
10. Essendon
11. Adelaide
12. Collingwood
13. West Coast
14. Carlton
15. GWS
16. Bulldogs
17. Melbourne
18. St Kilda

I see us getting 7 to 8 wins. Hawthorns age will catch up with them.

 

[ShanDog]

Why North so high ShanDog ?

Can only see them as having a similar year to this one. Possibly top 4 but still a rung below the top teams.

I feel like they, similarly to Port, were only missing one extra quality tall to allow for more rotation. Now that they have grabbed Waite, I am taking a bit of a punt but I think that if everything goes right for them, they will shoot right up. At the same time, I think the previous benchmarks in the comp are going to come back to the pack slightly (or the rest catch up, either way). I can see the top 8 being one of the closest in many years with a lot of spots being decided through very close results or even percentage being the difference between third and seventh spot or something crazy like that.

Also, if you make a left-field call early and it comes off, you look like a total BAWS

 

[footyfan098]

1. Port Adelaide
2. Sydney
3. Fremantle
4. Gold Coast
5. Hawthorn
6. Geelong
7. Brisbane
8. North
9. Richmond
10. Essendon
11. Adelaide
12. Collingwood
13. West Coast
14. Carlton
15. GWS
16. Bulldogs
17. Melbourne
18. St Kilda

I see us getting 7 to 8 wins. Hawthorns age will catch up with them.

Yeah i reckon youll be pretty close with that ladder, brisbane will be in that 8-12 bracket i reckon, with their midfield additions. still reckon the hawks will finish top 4 though