List Mgmt. 2015 Trade, Draft, Rookie Draft and FA Megathread

[Tommy Wigs]

How likely is it we manage to keep pick 5 and get Carlisle?

This is what I was thinking last night:

20-25%: 5 for Essendon's second or involving our next year's first
10-15%: PSD
25-35%: Saints swap two for 1 and lose 5, Dons don't get it but get a teens pick
20-25%: 2nd plus player
15-20%: 2 second rounders or other mix of picks not involving firsts

I didn't nail down the %, but take gist. But I think the mail this morning is about right. I'd up that percentage a bit. Is bump the 5 to Essendon down. It looks almost impossible notwithstanding what their supporters think.

 

[borderbarry]

At one stage on this thread it was suggested Hickey to Western Bulldogs for 2 second round picks, as it was suggested that the Bulldogs will be picking up several second round picks.
With 3- 2nd rounders, I would use one for Freeman, one and our 3rd round for Carlisle and use our own in the draft.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

It would be 5+26 for a top 10 and a teens pick.

*Warning – long post*

Okay at first I hated this idea. It seemed like we are allowing Essendon to play their typical belligerent negotiating game where they say “Carlisle is worth 5 but we will accept a pick in the mid-teens. However, we won’t help you negotiate to get that pick and organising a trade is your problem”.

I hate that self-entitled attitude and was very glad that it backfired on them with Crameri and to a lesser extent Ryder. It makes us do all the heavy lifting, even though their result hinges on our ability to negotiate. It is just a bad way to do business and pisses everyone off (including their supporters whose expectations are set unreasonably high).


However, I have taken some time to think this through and under the right circumstances it might work out exceptionally well for us. To me it seems the consensus around here is that at 5 we would pick Matho (unless Parish or Francis are available but that seems unlikely).

Also, best case scenario would be that we get the Carlisle trade done for our second this year and Ross (Hickey more valuable IMO so Ross so be the starting point for negotiations).

So in our ideal scenario we get Matho and Carlisle for a net loss of 5, 25 & Ross.


In the downgrade scenario Ghost suggested (5&25 to 10 and teens), if Essendon accept the pick in the teens (+Ross), and Matho is still there at 10, we actually end up with our ideal result (we just add a step in the middle). And we get to keep our second next year which would be the next reasonable step in negotiations.

So trading down is high risk but potentially very high reward as we get exactly what we want for minimum cost.


However, in doing this we risk 2 pretty big things.

1. Matho is gone by our pick and we end up with a mid such as Tucker or Gresham. For those who know more about this (Rahul, Brian) how much of a loss is this?
   
   
2. More problematic to my mind, is that Dildo decides that he wants 10 instead of the teens pick, leaving us stuck in almost exactly the same drawn out negotiations we have now in refusing to give up 5 (except this time it is 10, a weaker pick which might seem even more achievable to Dildo’s simplistic brain)

So essentially when we weaken our draft hand, it is in the hope that Essendon are more reasonable in their negations. Unfortunately, recent history tells us this is not likely.

Hence, I really really don’t think it is a good idea to weaken our draft hand unless we have some kind of in principle agreement from Essendon that they will take the late teens pick (+ Ross) for Carlisle.


Without that agreement I say we don't downgrade and stare down the ridiculous ultimatums they give us, waiting for them to fold in the last 2 days of the draft period (as they have 2 years in a row) and accept a second rounder and Ross, or 2 second rounders. We hold the better hand after all, and worst case we still have 5 (noting Ghost's point that PSD is out).

However, with that agreement, we do the downgrade and get to sit back and smile while all the ignorant bombers supporters claim they won the trade. Then we all pray to whatever God we all choose that Matho gets to us.

In the two above scenarios, we at a minimum get one of Carlisle / Matho. Best case we got both and at minimum cost.

However, I would be very very hesitant to do the downgrade without that agreement, as we could end up missing both.

Just my strategy FWIW

 

[The Cavalry]

5 + 24 to GWS for 8 + 16(from freo)
Hickey + 42 + Minch to WB for 11 + Hrovat + 48
11 + 48 + Geary to GC for 19 + 23 + 58 + Gorringe
23 to Freo for Weller
19 + Saad to Ess for Carlisle
2016 3rd to Coll for Freeman

Matho @ 8
Gresham/Milera @ 16
Rice with later pick
Upgrade Sinc @ 78
Rookie:
D Rioli
W Combe
Marky

 

[The Cavalry]

If we had a pick and Gresham/Milera/Balic?Tucker was available who do we take?
Personally its Milera for me

 

[BrianSpeaking]

The deal will get done, Carlisle is a gun KPP, you can get mids any year.
This bloke will be the centrepiece of our flags.

 

[TheAaronHamill]

My inside sources from an Essendon car wash employee says Carlisle has a very nice Jeep.

 

[STK2020]

If we had a pick and Gresham/Milera/Balic?Tucker was available who do we take?
Personally its Milera for me

Gresham, and run off like bandits

 

[BrianSpeaking]

If we had a pick and Gresham/Milera/Balic?Tucker was available who do we take?
Personally its Milera for me

Don't want anyone with the name Milera near our club

 

[STK2020]

The deal will get done, Carlisle is a gun KPP, you can get mids any year.
This bloke will be the centrepiece of our flags.

Involving pick 5 BS ?

 

[BilboJackins]

If we had a pick and Gresham/Milera/Balic?Tucker was available who do we take?
Personally its Milera for me

Gresham comfortably for mine

 

[The Cavalry]

Don't want anyone with the name Milera near our club

In what order would you rate them BS?? also obvs W not T Milera hah

 

[borderbarry]

If we traded our pick 5 and ended up with 10 and 16, I would offer 16 to Essendon, if they knocked it back I would offer 10 to Hawthorn for Anderson and their first rounder, 18, and only use 18 for Carlisle.

 

[dewah07]

I've seen it written that while Balic is very skillful he isn't that quick.

if he has pendels burst speed, thats what you need in the afl, overall pace is overrated

 

[Jackbenimble]

*Warning – long post*

Okay at first I hated this idea. It seemed like we are allowing Essendon to play their typical belligerent negotiating game where they say “Carlisle is worth 5 but we will accept a pick in the mid-teens. However, we won’t help you negotiate to get that pick and organising a trade is your problem”.

I hate that self-entitled attitude and was very glad that it backfired on them with Crameri and to a lesser extent Ryder. It makes us do all the heavy lifting, even though their result hinges on our ability to negotiate. It is just a bad way to do business and pisses everyone off (including their supporters whose expectations are set unreasonably high).


However, I have taken some time to think this through and under the right circumstances it might work out exceptionally well for us. To me it seems the consensus around here is that at 5 we would pick Matho (unless Parish or Francis are available but that seems unlikely).

Also, best case scenario would be that we get the Carlisle trade done for our second this year and Ross (Hickey more valuable IMO so Ross so be the starting point for negotiations).

So in our ideal scenario we get Matho and Carlisle for a net loss of 5, 25 & Ross.


In the downgrade scenario, if Essendon accept the pick in the teens (+Ross), and Matho is still there at 10, we actually end up with our ideal result (we just add a step in the middle). And we get to keep our second next year which would be the next reasonable step in negotiations.

So trading down is high risk but potentially very high reward as we get exactly what we want for minimum cost.


However, in doing this we risk 2 pretty big things.

1. Matho is gone by our pick and we end up with a mid such as Tucker or Gresham. For those who know more about this (Rahul, Brian) how much of a loss is this?
   
   
2. More problematic to my mind, is that Dildo decides that he wants 10 instead of the teens pick, leaving us stuck in almost exactly the same drawn out negotiations we have now in refusing to give up 5 (except this time it is 10, a weaker pick which might seem even more achievable to Dildo’s simplistic brain)

So essentially when we weaken our draft hand, it is in the hope that Essendon are more reasonable in their negations. Unfortunately, recent history tells us this is not likely.

Hence, I really really don’t think it is a good idea to weaken our draft hand unless we have some kind of in principle agreement from Essendon that they will take the late teens pick (+ Ross) for Carlisle.


Without that agreement I say we stare down the ridiculous ultimatums they give us, and wait for them to fold in the last 2 days of the draft period (as they have 2 years in a row) accepting a second rounder and Ross, or 2 second rounders. We hold the better hand after all, and worst case we still have 5 (noting Ghost's point that PSD is out).

However, with that agreement, we do the downgrade and get to sit back and smile while all the ignorant bombers supporters claim they won the trade. Then we all pray to whatever God we all choose that Matho gets to us.

In the above scenarios, we at a minimum get one of Carlisle / Matho. Best case we got both and at minimum cost.

However, I would be very very hesitant to do the downgrade without that agreement, as we could end up missing both.

Just my strategy FWIW

 

[Jackbenimble]

View attachment 182820

That's my puzzled look (which also resembles dodoro a little)

 

[Simple Jack]

All this talk of even downgrading pick 5 is making be a bit sick so I'm hoping we can change tack.

What would it take for us to get pick 3 from GC to pip the filthy drug cheats and get Parish? 5 plus a player?

 

[burningdwarf]

The deal will get done, Carlisle is a gun KPP, you can get mids any year.
This bloke will be the centrepiece of our flags.

You don't win flags without having a gun set of midfielders though, and we're obviously short there. If we were to trade out pick 5, would we get another pick in the top 10?

 

[TheLonieRanger]

My inside sources from an Essendon car wash employee says Carlisle has a very nice Jeep.

finally we have a quality insider here

 

[burningdwarf]

I'll be honest, I would be shattered if Essendon ended up with pick 5 out of the Carlisle trade. I would like to like to get Carlisle as cheap as possible, screw giving them fair value.

 

[StFly]

All this talk of even downgrading pick 5 is making be a bit sick so I'm hoping we can change tack.

What would it take for us to get pick 3 from GC to pip the filthy drug cheats and get Parish? 5 plus a player?

About as much as it would have taken to pry 1 form us last year, so the highly touted 5+Billings would get GC to consider it. IE we've no chance without massively paying for it. I agree though, anything top 10 pick wise clubs generally hold or are loathe to part with so I don't understand why people are just willy nilly going "5 for teens!" as if 5 is worthless because the draft is shallow and we're chasing Carlisle.

My inside sources from an Essendon car wash employee says Carlisle has a very nice Jeep.

But did he buy that jeep? It's a question almost as important as interjecting about my new Volkswagen Golf...

 

[Richter]

IMO our best bet to getting stuff sorted out asap is to manage to get hold of two consecutive picks in the teens and offer Essendon the higher one for Carlisle. I fear that as long as we have a high pick Essendon simply won't budge with their demand for it. I know we could also refuse to budge with the possibility that JC will go in to the psd, but I really don't think that a smart operator like Bains will want to sully his reputation like that. Also I am concerned that #24 is too much for Freeman, but #42 is not enough...

Hence, this sort of thing could be our best strategy....

#5 and #24 to Adelaide ---> #9 (Danger compo) and #13

Then **EITHER**

#9, #42, #60 to Sydney ----> #14, #33, #51

Would leave us with #13 to Bombers for Carlisle, #14 to take to the draft, #33 to Collingwood for Freeman, #51 for Rice or smokie, #78 upgrade Sinclair.

**OR**

#9, #42, #60 to Richmond ----> #12, #31, #49

Would leave us with #12 to Bombers for Carlisle, #13 to take to the draft, #31 to Collingwood for Freeman, #49 for Rice/draft smokie, #78 upgrade Sinclair.

 

[Periphery]

I hope the Freeman trade gets done early (and not for our 2nd this year) so that the Dons fans can stop talking about us getting Carlisle and Freeman for 5 and their 2nd.

IMO that Trade that gets GWS from 8 to 5 is a good deal if it will push their first pick above any academy bids. Then we can watch the Dons cry as they take 16 and change for Carlisle.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

That's my puzzled look (which also resembles dodoro a little)

To break it down: at this stage we are guaranteed at least one of Carlisle / Matho (5 gets us either). But end of the day, we want both and should negotiate no lower than a point which gives us a reasonable chance to get both

I feel we only do a downgrade if we have some form of indication that Essendon will accept the lower of the two downgraded picks + steak knives (they get late teens+, we keep 10)

With that guarantee, the downgrade is potentially a spectacular success, as there is a chance we get what we want (Carlisle and Matho) while essentially only giving up 5, 25 & steak knives

Without that guarentee, the risk is raised and we could potentially miss out on both - as Dildo may still butcher negotiations by asking for too much, and we are ultimately left with a weaker draft hand (which may see us miss both the player we want at the draft and Carlisle)

Essentially, to me the downgrade is too much of a risk without an indication that Dildo wont continue to be the a**hole he has been in the last 3 years

Personally I would rather keep 5, tell Essendon there is not a snowflakes chance in hell they get it - as the bulldogs did with 4 in the Crameri negotiations (remember this is Bontempelli we are talking about). I still say he will fold and accept what we offer come Thursday week

 

[Mowman]

We're no chance of getting Parish at 5.

Geelong thought they were no chance of getting H. Goddard at pick 21