2016 AFL - Round 13

[Jay-Z]

1.9! Wow. I thought we were crap (in front of goal) last night but that is next level. Stupid Dogs always trying to copy North

 

[lions_den]

Will win over 500 tomorrow if swans dees first quarter behinds total +4.5. Last leg of multi. Thinking of hedging but might just be greedy. Thoughts? I always think in wet games behinds tend to be more prevalent even though overall scoring is lower

 

[Jay-Z]

Used wb +59.5 to set up the in play (dogs scared me early but seems like this is now reasonably safe). Have just put my live bet on Geelong - 37.5 (before that last dogs goal) so really hoping Geelong win this between 38 and 59. Don't let me down cats. This is my last shot at the b365 promo

 

[benji21]

Used wb +59.5 to set up the in play (dogs scared me early but seems like this is now reasonably safe). Have just put my live bet on Geelong - 37.5 (before that last dogs goal) so really hoping Geelong win this between 38 and 59. Don't let me down cats. This is my last shot at the b365 promo

That would have been a tense couple of minutes. haha snuck home but

 

[Jay-Z]

That would have been a tense couple of minutes. haha snuck home but

Phew! Farewell b365 promo. You've been good to me!

 

[the_big_sav]

wc over 40
wingard 3 or more goals
cats over 15

@ $9.80 sportsbet

rolling over into

cameron 4+ @1.98
cameron 5+ @ 3.20
cameron 6+ @ 6.00
greene 3+ @ 2.30
greene 4+ @ 4.60

 

[benji21]

Looking at the meteye, they are predicting the heaviest rain to hit between 1230pm and 330pm, but either side it looks not to bad. may have to keep a good eye on it tomorrow and if it comes a little late smash the overs for the middle

 

[Robo87]

rolling over into

cameron 4+ @1.98
cameron 5+ @ 3.20
cameron 6+ @ 6.00
greene 3+ @ 2.30
greene 4+ @ 4.60

Green 3+ is @3.40 on b365.
im tailing your other cameron goals also.

 

[the_big_sav]

Green 3+ is @3.40 on b365.
im tailing your other cameron goals also.

pretty much basing it on him slaughtering gold coast when they were depleted.

trying to avoid a margin. no mummy and stevie will hurt them in terms of completely flogging them

 

[chrisdon16]

Forecast next week for Adelaide is rain Tuesday Wednesday then another 10-20mm Thursday for Adelaide v North. Interesting to see what total they start with

 

[free at last]

Forecast next week for Adelaide is rain Tuesday Wednesday then another 10-20mm Thursday for Adelaide v North. Interesting to see what total they start with

Add magpies v dockers clash too,looking wet in Melbourne next Friday.

 

[Jugada]

2U Sydney 1-39 @ $2.05
2U GWS -62.5 @ $1.92

 

[mookieb]

Used wb +59.5 to set up the in play (dogs scared me early but seems like this is now reasonably safe). Have just put my live bet on Geelong - 37.5 (before that last dogs goal) so really hoping Geelong win this between 38 and 59. Don't let me down cats. This is my last shot at the b365 promo

I thought WB +39.5 was safe. Promptly panicked and ended up going Geelong -53.5 setting up a potentially reverse middle. Luckily Geelong finished strongly. Had some other bets on Geelong but should have gone a bit harder as I was pretty confident they were going to win.

FYI they still have a rugby league game Sunday for what is expected to be the last match of the promo.

 

[demon_fanatic]

hmmmm ok theres next to no chance of the rain easing during game, its going to be at its worst... sydney racked up a great score in Wet vs Brisbane.. and did ok first half vs gold coast (total between two teams was nearly 70 i think??) but unsure on todays 131.5 now.. probably leave coz it definately wont go up.. if they drop it to 120 might go a small over play

 

[Jugada]

1U Patton 3+ goals @ $4

 

[csnody]

Buy some pornos instead perhaps?

Your troll game is getting weak Manilla.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Going on the goal scorer markets for GWS - Cameron, Patton, Lobb and Greene. Got Cameron for 5 ($3.20) and 6 ($6), Patton for 3 ($3.30) and 4 ($7.60), Lobb for 3 ($2.75) and 4 ($6) and Greene for 3 ($2.30), 4 ($4.60) and 5 ($10). All Sportsbet odds.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Donating $20 to the tab to keep Sunday interesting. Syd 60+ / GWS 20-39 @ 38.50

 

[TI KING]

Lewis Taylor 2+ Goals @ 2.75 1.5u @ B365
Lewis Taylor 3+ Goals @ 7.50 1u @ B365

Taylor kicked 3 against WC in round 1 and again against Hawthorn a few weeks ago. Worth a bite.

M Priddis -0.5/Under 54.5 @ 3.50 TAB.

Gaff is matched up against Priddis in this bet. I agree Robinson will tag Gaff(as previously discussed in this thread) so I expect him to win with the -.5 start. With the tag I believe the total between them will be less than 55. 2.5u play

Well Taylor had his chances. Shooting a 1.3 for the game is disappointing. The Priddis bet was also a no go.

Anyway onto today. Seems to be some good value for GWS kickers against the Dons.
Toby Green 3+ Goals @ 3.50 Bet365. Good chance today and he's paying 2.30 on SB for comparison. Taking this for 2u
Tom Scully 2+ @ 2.5 B365/ 3+ @ 9 Sportsbet. Against the Dons I'm always happy to take these odds. 1u play on each
Rory Lobb 2+ @ 2.5 B365/ 3+ @ 6.50 B365. Great value. For 3 goals at SB he's 2.75. 2u play on each

Edit; Lobb is playing in the ruck today with Mummy out. Still a good bet. I'll look and see how ruckmen have gone this year vs Dons

 

[chrisdon16]

Getting on GWS -62.5

 

[Robo87]

Getting on GWS -62.5

-60.5 line @1.93 on b365

 

[Spads]

I reckon I have found a really good bet on CrownBet. It is in the fantasy dream team points section. They have a a group for ruckmen and it is handicapped. I reckon with West out this week Stef Martin (will be back in the ruck almost full time - note Josh Walker is in and Hipwood who is over 200cm has been selected but I don't know anything about him) can get back to his scores of last year. He is paying $4.50 (favourite) and has a +25.5 handicap. He averaged 114 points last year. Below are this year averages of some of the other chances:
Gawn - 100 (scratch).
Trengrove - 62 (+29.5) - this average isn't that accurate as he has scored much higher recently due to playing in the ruck. He is capable of 100 based on some of his recent games.
Goldy - 104 (+3.5)
Campbell - 78.6 (+32.5)
leuenberger - 71.4 (+33.5)
Z Smith - 66.6 (+34.5)
McEvoy - 72 (+36.5)

Martin is averaging 79.2 this year.

Any Lions fans know what Hipwoods role is/will be?

This is looking the goods.

 

[jaymasha]

Forecast next week for Adelaide is rain Tuesday Wednesday then another 10-20mm Thursday for Adelaide v North. Interesting to see what total they start with

Hoping it opens around 185. Also hoping it continues to rain

 

[Parko31]

Can get a huge $11 for Toby Greene most disposals grp2.
The fact that he's in ridiculously good form, has been listed to start on ball, is playing etihad and has demonstrated he can easily rack up 30+ disposals, and is in grp2 not grp1 says $11 is huge overs

 

[Gimpalicious]

Can get a huge $11 for Toby Greene most disposals grp2.
The fact that he's in ridiculously good form, has been listed to start on ball, is playing etihad and has demonstrated he can easily rack up 30+ disposals, and is in grp2 not grp1 says $11 is huge overs

He's out to $17 on Crownbet - good find.

1U on the above.