2016 Draft discussion

[captainrich]

Thanks. Seems a bit perverse though. They get players rubbed out for a year because they doped and then get a draft pick because of it even though they are likely to finish mid table or better next year.

yeah definetly a bit annoying, almost similar to a side tanking for a year to get a number 1 pick and coming back up, to be fair though half of those players will never be of the same ability

added bonus is their top up players if proven to be any decent are not automatically retained by the Dons and have to go through the draft all over again, so guys like Dea and Grimley (when given the chance) etc if proven to be AFL quality players get a years development for another team to benefit...but unlikely they will prove to be AFL quality

 

[M Malice]

time to start the should the lions get a priority pick thread.
wouldn't mind petrevski-seton and will brodie at picks 1 and 2.

 

[briztoon]

Thanks for the reply dlanod, appreciate the time you spent commenting on particular points.

No worries, I'll try and give a bit of an AFL perspective. Anything I snip out I basically agree with, which is most of it.

This is where the AFL differs a bit from most other sports.

There's very limited freedom of movement (limited free agency, long guaranteed contracts, players can only enter through the draft, no intraseason signings, player veto on trades), so "building from the ground up" ala Melbourne means you literally need to nail every draft pick because you're replacing a dozen or more players. It's not like others where you can get the top talent cheaply through the draft and then surround them with average or slightly better talent through free agency.

I understand this. This is why I place such emphasis on drafting very, very high. Less chance of making a mistake. If we are drafting third, and taking the best available non Academy talent, recent draft history says we more than likely drafting a star or super star. Then your scouts only really have to nail the second or third round non Academy picks. By all reports the Lions nailed last years draft.

We picked our future Super Star forward, two future best 22 midfield starters, a tall defender (out of all our draft picks last year, Skinner is the one I am most interested in seeing if he is a player), and a he could be anything but no one really knows what type of player in Hipwood. Add to these Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner, Daniel McStay and Lewis Taylor and we have beginnings of our future team.

Imagine adding two first round players each year for three years running, with one of those players being a top 3 pick and the other being a highly rated Academy talent. That sets us up

Similar to the above, player vetoes on trading massively limit the feasibility of considering players as tradeable assets. You're more likely to end up with a disgruntled playing group than improving your list, given you're suggesting sending them to crappy clubs as they're the ones with high draft picks.

The downsides of trading a club stalwart are huge, the upside negligible. In the AFL you're better off having two above average players than one star, so no - it's not generally worth giving up pick 4 and Rocky for pick 3. Bear in mind that we got offered pick 2 alone for Rocky a couple of years ago.

Yep, I see where you are coming from. How did Rocky feel about another team chasing him? Which team was it under what circumstances?

I'm not suggesting the club actively shop all their current prime players, but if an opportunity presents itself that mutually agreeable to all parties, you have to give it serious consideration. Our current established players have to know we are probably 3 years away from making the top 8, and that we are not going to genuinely compete for a title in their career life span.

As for moving up from pick 4 to pick 3, the scenario I envisioned was where picks 1 to 3 are the elite non academy draftees and picks 4, 5 and possibly 6 will all be academy players. So pick 4 really converts to pick 7, a good, but not potential super star player. Again, moves are made to put us in a position to compete for a future championship. Yes, we are sacrificing the immediate future for the long term future.

AFL has 18 players on the field per team, so there's a limited amount a single star can do. You're better off with a spread of above average players more often than not, as Carlton with Judd or Gold Coast with Ablett or us with Brown or other examples show. The comparable total is the NFL, and there's no position in the AFL with the single importance that quarterbacks have in that league.

I don't believe I adequately explained myself in my first post. I want to see Judd, Ablett and Brown all on the one team. Superstars surrounded by star players, surrounded by complementary players. How many super star player and X factor players were on the Lions 3 peat team? How many were on the Hawks teams from the last couple of years?

My fear is that Shache is going to end up with a career similar to Brown, minus the formative years. He's going to be a lone super star on a team of merely above average players which won't get a sniff of the top four.

Academy kids tend to be overvalued by the media and the fans, but undervalued a little by the clubs if last year's draft is anything to go by - simply by comparing the players to those taken around them.

Again I agree. I don't believe we will see a situation again where rival clubs make the mistake of not bidding early enough academy players. It was blatantly obvious to all clubs that the Academy clubs were stockpiling points for their own Academy kids. Seriously after Brisbane picked Shache at number two last year, Melbourne should have bid on both GWS's and the Lions top two academy kids each, as both teams would have had no choice but to match the bids and chew up significant points, or be left picking inferior talent.

Imagine if the the 2016 AFL draft order was as the ladder stands today. Brisbane picks third and ends up with William Brodie. Pick 5 and Collingwoods turn, Eddie walks on stage and begins calling the top 4 GWS academy kids, followed by Gold Coasts top two and the the Lions top two. And guess what, each of the Academy teams would have no choice but to match each and every bid, or risk walking away from the draft with significantly lesser quality players (especially the Lions). Unlikely to happen, but if I am a rival team I am making sure that GWS, Gold Coast and Brisbane don't have a live pick in the second and third round (or in the first round if it's the Gold Coast or GWS). Make all the Academy teams have to use their accumulated draft picks/points.

 

[KissKiss]

Imagine if the the 2016 AFL draft order was as the ladder stands today. Brisbane picks third and ends up with William Brodie. Pick 5 and Collingwoods turn, Eddie walks on stage and begins calling the top 4 GWS academy kids, followed by Gold Coasts top two and the the Lions top two. And guess what, each of the Academy teams would have no choice but to match each and every bid, or risk walking away from the draft with significantly lesser quality players (especially the Lions). Unlikely to happen, but if I am a rival team I am making sure that GWS, Gold Coast and Brisbane don't have a live pick in the second and third round (or in the first round if it's the Gold Coast or GWS). Make all the Academy teams have to use their accumulated draft picks/points.

I know you are only painting a hypothetical there but reading this makes me even more happy that Collingwood traded away their first pick this year already.

 

[briztoon]

I know you are only painting a hypothetical there but reading this makes me even more happy that Collingwood traded away their first pick this year already.

Nice pick up, my bad. But I would love to see this, imagine the commentary. You could imagine the AFL office making changes if this did happen.

Buy I am serious in regards to my last two sentences. By trading late first round picks and players for multiple second, third and fourth round picks, Academy teams are really painting themselves in to a corner. Academy teams will always match bids for their elite kids, but at some point the the accumulated draft picks/points run out, and you risk losing second or third tier Academy talent which are the players you help fill out your squad.

 

[Len S]

Nice pick up, my bad. But I would love to see this, imagine the commentary. You could imagine the AFL office making changes if this did happen.

Buy I am serious in regards to my last two sentences. By trading late first round picks and players for multiple second, third and fourth round picks, Academy teams are really painting themselves in to a corner. Academy teams will always match bids for their elite kids, but at some point the the accumulated draft picks/points run out, and you risk losing second or third tier Academy talent which are the players you help fill out your squad.

One key postion player,hopefully Skinner,Close and co. also provide one,plus a couple of captains.Lewis is the type we need ,real leader and communicator . Should be running our eyes over the Geelong ,Hawthorn and Sydney lists.

 

[Lionmoe21]

He's a big lad, but we'll have to wait and see at this stage - he's still almost 18 months away from being drafted. The current consensus is that he will be a high pick but so much can change in that time.

thanks for that, just one more question about ballenden. does he have football ability or is he hyped up project from a different countrt

 

[captainrich]

thanks for that, just one more question about ballenden. does he have football ability or is he hyped up project from a different countrt

lived in Aus most of his life so not a project from another country

though interested to know whether its just his size etc that has people talking or he has actual ability

 

[fargothegreat]

Hey guys just wondering how Billy and Bailey Lambert are tracking in your academy?

 

[dlanod]

thanks for that, just one more question about ballenden. does he have football ability or is he hyped up project from a different countrt

He's not a project. He wasn't great on the weekend but was up against one of the best defensive prospects this year. He didn't have any worries about reading the flight of the ball and there was at least one instance of very good hands beneath his knees, both usually where undeveloped players struggle more.

 

[jjami15]

Just listened to the latest 'Road to the Draft' Podcast with Kinnear Beatson and it was a really insightful listen covering a number of things but does make comment on our premiership years and also the role of specific people in doing this. In relation to this years draft even though he stated that it is quite early he rates it as an average draft. With him also saying that it is quite open for the number one pick and no-one has stepped up but with the national champs this should happen. Also made note of players who really will themselves in big games especially in u/18 grand finals and the like. With this type of feedback and the two for me are SPS and Will Brodie, SPS for the obvious reasons but also for Will's ability in three major games that he's played for the national academy and being the best player practically in all three. Finally, just touched in the improved standards in the NSW v Qld games just played in a short amount of time and does attribute that to the academies. Highly recommend to have a listen.

 

[lionshine]

Who was it on here who mentioned Andrew McGrath from the Sandringham Dragons as a good young draft prospect who reminded them of Tim Notting with his run and carry ability? The young bloke had 44 possessions and 19 tackles in the Tac Cup over the weekend

 

[jasonrampage2010]

Is there any videos of Connor Ballenden around?

 

[cotter101]

Who was it on here who mentioned Andrew McGrath from the Sandringham Dragons as a good young draft prospect who reminded them of Tim Notting with his run and carry ability? The young bloke had 44 possessions and 19 tackles in the Tac Cup over the weekend

I didn't think he actually played on the weekend? He's an incredible athlete, who racks up the ball and tackle numbers(as you can tell in the above post). He disposes the ball really well too. Football wasn't really a big focus of his until mid way through last year. Was all about athletic prior to that. But his end of last years form really put him on the radar with a few clubs interested. Personally feel we have enough sub 180cm blokes running around though. But then again, will they all be with us after this season?

I expect him to be touted as a top 10, maybe even top 5 in some cases. But I think he'll end up sliding to the early - late 20's.

 

[Quigley]

Is there any videos of Connor Ballenden around?

You should still be able to track down the Lions Academy v Aspley under 21s from a month or so ago.

 

[JasRulz63]

Can you imagine the complaining if the Allies win the division 1 championship? Seems like they might have the quality to do it.

 

[Quigley]

They will easily have the most talent. The question will be whether they can get them playing as a team on limited time together.

 

[jjami15]

They will easily have the most talent. The question will be whether they can get them playing as a team on limited time together.

I reckon at least 10 of them have played/trained together with the AIS and would have some knowledge of each other. Would love to stick it up the traditional footy States but beware the froth coming the 'Vic' clubs if we were to do it.

 

[DanT7]

I'm a novice, what picks will we likely get and who will we likely chase? Please explain...

 

[DanT7]

Wish list seems to be:
- SPS
- A McGrath
- Allison
- Rolls
- Parfitt

Sound correct? Any chance we get all of them?
What if we trade out Mayes or Green?

 

[captainrich]

Wish list seems to be:
- SPS
- A McGrath
- Allison
- Rolls
- Parfitt

Sound correct? Any chance we get all of them?
What if we trade out Mayes or Green?

all outside players

brodie or vernables (or however you spelll it) would fit our needs more

 

[dlanod]

Wish list seems to be:
- SPS
- A McGrath
- Allison
- Rolls
- Parfitt

Sound correct? Any chance we get all of them?
What if we trade out Mayes or Green?

I think at most you can pencil in one early pick and the rest academy boys with maybe a pick in the 30s or later, because of the way the bidding system works. So similar to last year. I'd also add Watson to that list given Clarke's retirement and Merrett's age.

 

[jjami15]

I think at most you can pencil in one early pick and the rest academy boys with maybe a pick in the 30s or later, because of the way the bidding system works. So similar to last year. I'd also add Watson to that list given Clarke's retirement and Merrett's age.

Agree with your sentiments. Allison's form in the national champs will dictate where he goes. Good Champs = a bid in the first round, quiet champs = a bid in the second.

 

[Kevvo]

I think at most you can pencil in one early pick and the rest academy boys with maybe a pick in the 30s or later, because of the way the bidding system works. So similar to last year. I'd also add Watson to that list given Clarke's retirement and Merrett's age.

I think this is probably right.

Based on coverage this year so far, it looks unlikely that Allison attracts a bid before our first rounder. If he slips, I'd guess something like high first rounder, Allison, Watson, Rolls. One of those academy kids at the bottom could get squeezed if Allison goes later than currently expected and they're up against interstate kids we rate higher (e.g. Mathieson last year).

As it stands, I can't see us delisting a heap of players (there are two come to mind that we haven't extended, and maybe one retirement), so that might be all the list spots we have unless we trade players out for picks.

 

[Lace Out]

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/gw...g/news-story/f94fddfb5cf0ae10b9839961266926fe