2016 Draft discussion

[Dylan12]

Ainsworth is the kid I most want and even if he is the 4th or 5th best player, he is the best match for the Lions IMO.

McCluggage has go home written all over him from what I've heard.

Allison and Watson are the two others I'd be disappointed to not acquire, in reason of course. Given our trading, I can't believe we allowed such a massive gap between 22 and our next pick in the 70's, massive blunder on the part of the club.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Ainsworth is the kid I most want and even if he is the 4th or 5th best player, he is the best match for the Lions IMO.

McCluggage has go home written all over him from what I've heard.

Allison and Watson are the two others I'd be disappointed to not acquire, in reason of course. Given our trading, I can't believe we allowed such a massive gap between 22 and our next pick in the 70's, massive blunder on the part of the club.

Not really a blunder when they can just go into deficit next year. As long as we can secure picks in that mid draft range next year, what's the difference?

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I'll take the quiet and reserved McCluggage over guys that have been eating his dust all year.

 

[lionshine]

I'm dumbfounded at the idea of stressing about not getting Ainsworth and ending up with McCluggage. Hugh McCluggage is legitimately one of the best midfield prospects to ever come out of the TAC Cup system. It is actually quite remarkable what he has achieved this year. Watching him on field he is an absolute jet and the stats back it up. Genuine inside/outside, classy, goal kicking midfielders don't come around often and he'd be a massive steal at pick 3. Either way I head into the draft excited about the fact that we'll add one of McCluggage/Ainsworth/maybe even Taranto. I think all three of them are very exciting prospects who will brighten our future prospects dramatically.

 

[lionshine]

Ainsworth is a very good talent but you just can't ignore what McCluggage has done this season. While both have question marks over their game McCluggage I think fits our team a bit better in the long run. I'm fairly excited to see who we select with pick 16 more so than pick 3. Could be any number of players. I'm personally hoping it's Simpkin who I think could be the steal of the draft if he is taken at that pick. McCluggage and Simpkin in the midfield in 4-5 years time would be an absolute nightmare for opposition if they reach their potentials.

Yeah I'm very much starting to hope that Jy Simpkin slips to pick 16. He is very talented and if the consensus among the clubs medical staff is that he should make a successful return from the broken leg a club using a top 10 pick on him(Swans or Suns likely) is justifiable. If he does slip past those clubs, however, hopefully the likes of North, Crows, Eagles and Port have their hearts set on someone else because it'd be good to add to our Vic Country stocks and grab a steal at pick 16 in Simpkin who I have no doubt would have been a lock for top 10 possibly even top 8 had he had an injury free run this season.

 

[lionshine]

Probably been mentioned several times but how many list spots do we actually have available? Is it 6 with Archie to be upgraded meaning we'll select 5 players in the draft or is it 7 with Archie to be upgraded meaning we'll either select 6 in the draft or 5 in the draft and pick up a DFA?

 

[pulpdriver]

Probably been mentioned several times but how many list spots do we actually have available? Is it 6 with Archie to be upgraded meaning we'll select 5 players in the draft or is it 7 with Archie to be upgraded meaning we'll either select 6 in the draft or 5 in the draft and pick up a DFA?

Could be wrong but I think with McGrath and Green both departing we have 32 players on the senior list and 33 with Archie. Unless I'm forgetting someone we should be free to take our first four picks, our two academy boys and have 1 spot to spare.

 

[Groo2]

Not really a blunder when they can just go into deficit next year. As long as we can secure picks in that mid draft range next year, what's the difference?

How does the points deduction work? does it come off your highest pick, or can you sacrifice whatever pick you want to cover the deficit?

 

[JasRulz63]

Probably been mentioned several times but how many list spots do we actually have available? Is it 6 with Archie to be upgraded meaning we'll select 5 players in the draft or is it 7 with Archie to be upgraded meaning we'll either select 6 in the draft or 5 in the draft and pick up a DFA?

7 with Archie to be upgraded, so effectively 6. Active picks are currently 3, 16, 21, 22, 75 and 76.

What I'm curious about is whether we'd take Allison and/or Watson if they get through to those picks, or if we'd be risk one or both gets through to the RD and use the list spot on a DFA.

 

[briztoon]

How does the points deduction work? does it come off your highest pick, or can you sacrifice whatever pick you want to cover the deficit?

Comes off your next available pick/s in this years draft. But the points run out at pick 73.

If we have to go in to deficit on next years draft, the points come off our draft pick in the corresponding round. So if a bid comes in the second round, and we match, and take a deficit in to next years draft, the points come off our second round pick, and any later picks until we have paid off the points balance.

However the draft order is fluid. As multiple lower draft picks are used up to match higher bids, those lower picks disappear and the picks behind shuffle up the draft order to fill the gap, increasing in points value. This year GC and GWS will likely have a lot of kids (7+) bid on. We need GC to match bids on both Bowes and Scheer and GWS to match bids on Setterfield, Perryman and two other academy kids before any team bids on our two boys, Allison and Watson.

So the draft picks owned by GC and GWS will be used up and our pick 75 & 76 will likely move up the draft order by 8 places or so, before a bid comes in for one of our academy kids.

Plus any bid that comes in from the second round onwards gets a set points deduction of 197 points. So any bid after pick 56 (worth 194 points) is basically is a free match.

My guesstimate is, as long as the bids come in from the middle of round 3 (pick 48) or later, we're likely to carry a small to no deficit in to next years draft. Matching a mid to late second round bid for just one academy kid could likely see our second round pick in next years draft move back 5 or more picks. For example, carrying a 200 point deficit in to next years draft is equivalent to dropping form pick 21 to pick 28. Which is possible if a bid comes in for Allison or Watson around picks 31 to 33. If both are bid on inside the top 50, we're carrying a significant (250+) points deficit in to next years draft.


http://www.theage.com.au/afl/injury...e-new-afl-bidding-system-20151112-gkxg8b.html

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-11-19/indicative-2016-afl-draft-order

 

[Zhesty]

Simpkin who I have no doubt would have been a lock for top 10 possibly even top 8 had he had an injury free run this season.

There is also every chance he could be a Jacob Allison who is highly rated in his underage year but who may not have kicked on as expected in his draft year. Got to weigh up those risks.

 

[M Malice]

just listened to yesterdays draft pod cast with Twomey and Scott Clayton. Clayton saying that this years draft crop is as good as if not better than any draft crop he has been involved in, particularly the depth of it.

great year for us to have 4 picks in the top 22.

 

[jackess]

just listened to yesterdays draft pod cast with Twomey and Scott Clayton. Clayton saying that this years draft crop is as good as if not better than any draft crop he has been involved in, particularly the depth of it.

great year for us to have 4 picks in the top 22.

The priority pick doesn't look as bad as it did a month ago.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

just listened to yesterdays draft pod cast with Twomey and Scott Clayton. Clayton saying that this years draft crop is as good as if not better than any draft crop he has been involved in, particularly the depth of it.

great year for us to have 4 picks in the top 22.

The Suns are heavily invested in this draft, wouldn't expect to hear anything different from Clayton.

 

[ZoBlitz]

Must be a lot of quality skinny flankers available for Clayton to choose from.

 

[Voss the boss]

Ainsworth is a very good talent but you just can't ignore what McCluggage has done this season. While both have question marks over their game McCluggage I think fits our team a bit better in the long run. I'm fairly excited to see who we select with pick 16 more so than pick 3. Could be any number of players. I'm personally hoping it's Simpkin who I think could be the steal of the draft if he is taken at that pick. McCluggage and Simpkin in the midfield in 4-5 years time would be an absolute nightmare for opposition if they reach their potentials.

you and me both SM - he is the one I am sold on more than any other draftee in that range.

for me 3 - ainsworth / mccluggae then 16 Simpkin - no hesitation at all!

 

[Cockliff38]

Witherden sounds like a level-headed kid...

For Geelong Falcon and first round draft hopeful Alex Witherden, AFL has been his lifelong dream. Now, less than two weeks away from the National Draft, it’s almost a certainty that will become reality.

Witherden burst onto the scene in 2015 after a string of solid performances for the Falcons as an underage player and resonated with recruiters as a potential first round pick on Grand Final day where he was among the best afield.

Despite success in both basketball and cricket as a junior, the latter of which he played at first grade level while only in ninth grade, the running defender always had his biggest aspirations in the AFL.

“I remember being five years old running around the back yard thinking recruiters were watching me [back] then,” Witherden said.

He loved the game so much that he even forged his age in order to go to Auskick a year early, because he simply wanted to play football.

“I was sick of just being at home and not playing, so I went to Auskick a year early,” Witherden said.

“Mum somehow did that, and she always talks and laughs about it with recruiters.”

He regularly played above his age group as a junior at Barwon Heads on Victoria’s Bellarine Peninsula, something that he credits has helped him develop as a footballer.

However Witherden’s journey to the AFL, like many, hasn’t been as smooth as he would have envisaged.

After a double hip arthroscopy at the end of 2014, which forced him to give up cricket, Witherden was a regular at the physiotherapist, where he’s had around one hundred appointments since.

Yet Witherden’s biggest challenge was one that potentially could have derailed his hopes of being drafted and too his dream of playing football.

On May 7 this year, Witherden broke his leg playing for Geelong College, his school team which he also captained.

Prior to the game, Witherden already had some concerns of his own; heading to the game not feeling too well. A doctor, whom Witherden consulted, was also concerned about the potential to develop fatigue down the track.

He nearly didn’t play altogether. But not wanting to let his team down, he persevered.

Returning to a centre bounce after a lengthy rest up forward, Witherden picked up the ball from the stoppage and after firing away a handball, was tackled by Sandringham Dragons’ midfielder and fellow aspiring draftee Tim Taranto.

“My leg was in an awkward position and he [Taranto] came down on it with his full body weight,” Witherden said.

“It was a pain I had never experienced before. I was in agony.

“At that point, a lot of things were running through my head. But once I put my hand on my leg and put a bit of pressure on the bone, I could feel them overlapping. At that point I knew I faced a long stint on the sidelines.”

Breaking a leg is rarely a good thing, especially when you are one of the top teenagers in the country at your sport.

After a consultation with the AFL Academies Development Manager, surgery was made a priority and arranged for the following day.

The injury meant Witherden would finish the most important year of any junior footballer having played just two games of TAC Cup football, averaging 23 disposals, five marks and 3.5 tackles per game. He was also forced to miss the Under 18 National Championships, the Under 18 All Stars match and was in serious doubt for the National Draft Combine, where he was one of 80 players to receive an invitation.

An out-pour of messages from friends and family – including Brenton Sanderson, the AFL Academy Head Coach – relieved some of the pain. On return home from the hospital, the reality of his broken leg finally hit home.

“It’s not until you get home; the support drops off and your feel a bit more isolated. That’s probably when it gets a little bit harder.”

In a sense, Witherden’s broken leg had a silver lining. With the knowledge that despite not playing for the remainder of 2016, clubs and recruiters would still look at him in the draft, he was able to improve elsewhere.

After dropping down to 75kg after his injury, his weight improved to 80kg largely through adding size in his upper-body. His diet also carried a heftier emphasis in order to keep his body in a good standard.

“It has been an eye-opener for the professionalism required to make it at the next level. I always relied on going out and just getting a kick… but didn’t place a high enough emphasis on going to the gym,” Witherden said.

He continued, “If you do go to the next level, you do have to work hard. For me, I was just preparing myself for that next step.”

Witherden credits his parents and family, his various coaches along the way and the staff at the Geelong Falcons for helping him get to where he is today. Though aside from these names, Witherden took inspiration through another draft hopeful, Jy Simpkin, who broke his leg in April.

The pair grew up together, playing representative football in the same teams, and would even go water skiing in the summer.

“I got in touch with him after he broke his leg and when I broke mine, he was there for me. Having someone else who has a broken leg, for both of us, it helped us get through it.”

Witherden’s road to recovery since his broken leg in May has been arduous, but despite not playing, has certainly helped him on his road to the AFL.

 

[jjami15]

you and me both SM - he is the one I am sold on more than any other draftee in that range.

for me 3 - ainsworth / mccluggae then 16 Simpkin - no hesitation at all!

It was commented on in one of the group draft videos that both Ainsworth and Simpkin teamed up on players in last years national champs and gave them grief verbally. Nothing like a bit of mental warfare.

 

[jackess]

Witherden sounds like a level-headed kid...

He wasn't invited to the draft so you'd assume he'll be available around our picks if we're keen on him.

 

[Cockliff38]

He wasn't invited to the draft so you'd assume he'll be available around our picks if we're keen on him.

I think the problem will be missing out on him if we don't pull the trigger at 16... The teams between 16 and 21 would be keen on him (Essendon, Port, Sydney, Bulldogs)

 

[lionshine]

There is also every chance he could be a Jacob Allison who is highly rated in his underage year but who may not have kicked on as expected in his draft year. Got to weigh up those risks.

Definitely although his form pre injury was pretty damn good. 18 disposals and 4 goals in his only TAC Cup game for the year.

 

[jackess]

Looks like this guy on the phantom draft is going for worst case scenario selecting Venables, Ridley and Battle with our 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bigfooty-phantom-draft.1152513/

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Battle could be a player, just not what we need. If we don't take Ainsworth, Venables might be an option but not with pick 16.

 

[briztoon]

Looks like this guy on the phantom draft is going for worst case scenario selecting Venables, Ridley and Battle with our 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bigfooty-phantom-draft.1152513/

I don't know how so many people pass on Florent in that draft. I can sort of understand the reasoning behind selecting Venables at 16, as a big bodied mid to protect McCluggage, but with Florent still available, wouldn't pick Venables. I can understand Ridley at 21 as a rebounding defender. But would pick up Shai Bolton at 22. Or even look at Josh Rotham at 22 and go with a Ridley Rotham double act as big bodied, running, rebounding defenders able to bring the ball out of defence.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Still think we are a chance to take a lesser known with pick 22. Wouldn't mind us taking a risk on Josh Begley.