List Mgmt. 2016 Draft, Trading and Free Agency Thread

[scon]

With the new assistants who came in perhaps there was a bit of lack of clarity about where the team was going, and what the fitness requirements were

Probably more assistants roles/gameplan fred but I suspect,and I seem to recall early training reports were saying this,that the coaching team attempted to get the players' fitness up via drills which practised skills and rehearsed the new game plan.This is the model elite soccer clubs employ and with the Hawthorn influence this would make sense.I further suspect this is where Lyon delegated and against his better judgement accepted the recommendations of the new coaches as part of an agreed plan to spread the responsibility of decision making across the coaching panel.
They seem to be saying the plan was OK but the articulation and implementation were flawed.Somehow we did not get the volume of high intensity running into the group.
For no doubt a multiplicity of reasons the new regime was spectacularly unsuccessful(a failure mitigated by our tsunami of serious injury).The coaching staff have suggested it was a planning/teaching/outcome failure which they've identified.It becomes the responsibility of whoever is appointed as the new coaches Coordinator to examine the model and intro the implementation of system and structure which cuts the gap between what's planned for and what's delivered.
We're still sort of mimicking the Hawthorn structure to a degree to optimise the output of coaching panel and the list,increasing the quality of everyone's performance.
At least it's a model we can pick the eyes out of,because progress based on 60 first round picks isn't an option we'll be afforded.However players returning,games into the youngsters, plus Yarran full pre and Bennell and whoever we add will be a significant boost.

 

[Brettox]

Nice work you've nailed them I'd say but the lack of outright success by the 2's could be affected by the compromised drafting of the last 6 yrs


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I think you could add that Carlton had some deplorable drafting over that time too. Outside of last year and Cripps, really been shocking

 

[Jaeger]

Hill - if we let him go we are foregoing the ability to get Brad Hill at the same time. Neither is elite but both are very good in the roles they play and their classy kicking is something we need more of not less of.

Stephen Hill's going nowhere. Will be playing alongside his bro at Freo next year.

 

[gungho]

I don't have any stats or anything but does anyone have any info on a team that has successfully done a complete rebuild in a good amount of time (say 5 years). By this I mean has there been any teams that were near or on the bottom of the ladder and 5 years later had a premiership. And if so, has this happened in the last 30 years. I'm thinking that full rebuilds to success are pretty tricky. (The GWS situation should not be counted and is an anomaly because of all the gifted 1st round draft picks).

 

[Purple Suit]

I don't have any stats or anything but does anyone have any info on a team that has successfully done a complete rebuild in a good amount of time (say 5 years). By this I mean has there been any teams that were near or on the bottom of the ladder and 5 years later had a premiership. And if so, has this happened in the last 30 years. I'm thinking that full rebuilds to success are pretty tricky. (The GWS situation should not be counted and is an anomaly because of all the gifted 1st round draft picks).

The last 3 premiers that did a complete rebuild.
Hawks
Swans
Collingwood

 

[sherrif]

The last 3 premiers that did a complete rebuild.
Hawks
Swans
Collingwood

I don't think you can count Collingwood as completing a rebuild. Swans definitely not the case either.

 

[Kram]

I don't have any stats or anything but does anyone have any info on a team that has successfully done a complete rebuild in a good amount of time (say 5 years). By this I mean has there been any teams that were near or on the bottom of the ladder and 5 years later had a premiership. And if so, has this happened in the last 30 years. I'm thinking that full rebuilds to success are pretty tricky. (The GWS situation should not be counted and is an anomaly because of all the gifted 1st round draft picks).

Hawforn 2nd last in 04 to a flag in 08?

 

[BigWardy12]

I don't have any stats or anything but does anyone have any info on a team that has successfully done a complete rebuild in a good amount of time (say 5 years). By this I mean has there been any teams that were near or on the bottom of the ladder and 5 years later had a premiership. And if so, has this happened in the last 30 years. I'm thinking that full rebuilds to success are pretty tricky. (The GWS situation should not be counted and is an anomaly because of all the gifted 1st round draft picks).

West Coast 14th in 01 flag in 06...or did you just want legit flags?

 

[mightymouse75]

West Coast 14th in 01 flag in 06...or did you just want legit flags?

Only flags that havnt been tainted with slime Thankyou ))

 

[FD2646]

I thought we rebuilt well from 2008 onward!

 

[TheMcManusNose]

I don't have any stats or anything but does anyone have any info on a team that has successfully done a complete rebuild in a good amount of time (say 5 years). By this I mean has there been any teams that were near or on the bottom of the ladder and 5 years later had a premiership. And if so, has this happened in the last 30 years. I'm thinking that full rebuilds to success are pretty tricky. (The GWS situation should not be counted and is an anomaly because of all the gifted 1st round draft picks).

Funnily enough I was bored one night a few months ago and played around with the Squiggle to work this out - how long does it generally take a team to go from being consistently in the shit area, up into the premiership area (irrespective of if they win a premiership)?

Broadly, I came up with this, encompassing 1995-current:

Adelaide: 1 rebuild, 1999-2005 (6 years)
Brisbane: 1 dip 1997-2000, doesn't really count (draft concessions, cap concessions, fitzroy merger)
Carlton: 1 rebuild, 2002-2009 (7 years). Never really got up again, misjuged list and went too early
Collingwood: 2 rebuilds, one 2004-2008 (4 years), another one current at 3 years (2016 included)
Essendon: No rebuilds, cooked. Vague attempts at it since 2004, 2012 looked good before the Danksy juice struck
Freo: 1 rebuild (not really near it in 06 but were decent) 2008-2012 (4 years). Weren't rated 2010 by squiggle
Footscray: 2 rebuilds, sort of. Decent 97-00, decent 2008-2010. Rebuild 1: 2001-2008 (7 years), 2: 2011-2015 (4 years)
Geelong: 1 rebuild 1998-2005ish (7 years, Father Son helped)
GC: Not good yet
GWS: 4 years, massive concessions
Hawthorn: No real rebuilds in this period. Terrible for ~3 years pre-08, dipped for 2 years post 08 but didn't really rebuild.
Melbourne: 1 rebuild, spanning 2001-2015. 14 years. Finally coming good
Lol Norf: 1 rebuild, 2001-2011 (10 years). Probably somewhat hurt by the perception that truly bottoming out would kill the club
Port: 1 rebuild, 2008-2013 (5 years). Really didn't start a rebuild until 07 forced them. Now cooked again.
Richmond: Perenially shit
St.Kilda: 1 sort of rebuild 1999-2005 (6 years), another one current since 2012
Sydney: Never really bottomed out. Re-tooled 1999-2003 (4-5 years) and 2008-2011 (3 years). Salary and now draft concessions help
West Coast: 2 rebuilds. 1998-2004 (6 years) and 2008-2011 (3 years). Second one kind of took 6 years due to injuries (2010) and Woosha persisting with his cooked game plan.

Average: 5.6 years. Melbourne not included. North included.

"Good" rebuilds comparable to Freo's current predicament:

-Collingwood 2004-2008 (worse shape than us) 4 years
-Fremantle 2008-2012 (similar shape to now) 4 years
-Footscray 2011-2015 (similar to slightly worse shape) 4 years
-Saints 2012-2016* (similar to slightly worse shape) 4 years*
-Sydney 2008-2011 (similar shape to us, cap concessions a huge help) 3 years

-You could also argue Hawthorn 09-12 but they never really bottomed out like we did this year. I tend to like the comparison given a core chunk of players are the same though.

*Not actually good yet but seem to be coming good.

Anyway a lot of that is really my judgement call rather than actual objective data. Make of it what you will, i'm sure many will have issues with bits of it.

 

[freo1997]

Funnily enough I was bored one night a few months ago and played around with the Squiggle to work this out - how long does it generally take a team to go from being consistently in the shit area, up into the premiership area (irrespective of if they win a premiership)?

Broadly, I came up with this, encompassing 1995-current:

Adelaide: 1 rebuild, 1999-2005 (6 years)
Brisbane: 1 dip 1997-2000, doesn't really count (draft concessions, cap concessions, fitzroy merger)
Carlton: 1 rebuild, 2002-2009 (7 years). Never really got up again, misjuged list and went too early
Collingwood: 2 rebuilds, one 2004-2008 (4 years), another one current at 3 years (2016 included)
Essendon: No rebuilds, cooked. Vague attempts at it since 2004, 2012 looked good before the Danksy juice struck
Freo: 1 rebuild (not really near it in 06 but were decent) 2008-2012 (4 years). Weren't rated 2010 by squiggle
Footscray: 2 rebuilds, sort of. Decent 97-00, decent 2008-2010. Rebuild 1: 2001-2008 (7 years), 2: 2011-2015 (4 years)
Geelong: 1 rebuild 1998-2005ish (7 years, Father Son helped)
GC: Not good yet
GWS: 4 years, massive concessions
Hawthorn: No real rebuilds in this period. Terrible for ~3 years pre-08, dipped for 2 years post 08 but didn't really rebuild.
Melbourne: 1 rebuild, spanning 2001-2015. 14 years. Finally coming good
Lol Norf: 1 rebuild, 2001-2011 (10 years). Probably somewhat hurt by the perception that truly bottoming out would kill the club
Port: 1 rebuild, 2008-2013 (5 years). Really didn't start a rebuild until 07 forced them. Now cooked again.
Richmond: Perenially shit
St.Kilda: 1 sort of rebuild 1999-2005 (6 years), another one current since 2012
Sydney: Never really bottomed out. Re-tooled 1999-2003 (4-5 years) and 2008-2011 (3 years). Salary and now draft concessions help
West Coast: 2 rebuilds. 1998-2004 (6 years) and 2008-2011 (3 years). Second one kind of took 6 years due to injuries (2010) and Woosha persisting with his cooked game plan.

Average: 5.6 years. Melbourne not included. North included.

"Good" rebuilds comparable to Freo's current predicament:

-Collingwood 2004-2008 (worse shape than us) 4 years
-Fremantle 2008-2012 (similar shape to now) 4 years
-Footscray 2011-2015 (similar to slightly worse shape) 4 years
-Saints 2012-2016* (similar to slightly worse shape) 4 years*
-Sydney 2008-2011 (similar shape to us, cap concessions a huge help) 3 years

*Not actually good yet but seem to be coming good.

Anyway a lot of that is really my judgement call rather than actual objective data. Make of it what you will, i'm sure many will have issues with bits of it.

Love the hardwork u put into this..but your post is so wrong.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Love the hardwork u put into this..but your post is so wrong.

Dunno if it was really hard work. But yeah as I say I imagine a lot of people would have issues given I was just looking at a single indirect measure. It was kind of deliberately confined to that so that it wasn't hard work. And then I kind of gave up on it given how wishy washy it is.

 

[freo1997]

I think you should only rebuild every 10 years.

You say north rebuilt for 10 years...that literally never happen. They were pretty competitive between 2002-2005. Adelaide were not bad under Ayres in the early 00s. Melbourne never rebuilt in the 2000s, they were top of the ladder most of 2004 and weren't easy in our 06 final. Richmond statically were shit but started years really strong. Saints/Geelong only rebuilding for the 03 season then were back into it.

Westcoast never rebuilt under malthouse. Malthouse did some adjusting 96/97 but never cleaned out..judge was left to clean the mess 00/01.

Thats what i remember.

And i really think we have potential next season to do good. We kind of rebuilt this season by blooding youngesters and getting pick 3. I prefer we go down sydneys path and retooling.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

I think you should only rebuild every 10 years.

You say north rebuilt for 10 years...that literally never happen. They were pretty competitive between 2002-2005. Adelaide were not bad under Ayres in the early 00s. Melbourne never rebuilt in the 2000s, they were top of the ladder most of 2004 and weren't easy in our 06 final. Richmond statically were shit but started years really strong. Saints/Geelong only rebuilding for the 03 season then were back into it.

Westcoast never rebuilt under malthouse. Malthouse did some adjusting 96/97 but never cleaned out..judge was left to clean the mess 00/01.

Yeah that's the weakness of confining yourself to an semi-arbitrary positional rating of a team and defining any dip below a certain point as a 'rebuild'. But as I say, the reason I did that is because it's super easy to do visually with no reference to anything else or trying to remember wtf happened in a particular year.

 

[GreatPurpleShark]

Nice work you've nailed them I'd say but the lack of outright success by the 2's could be affected by the compromised drafting of the last 6 yrs


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I think you need to do all three at various times. When your list is ok you just need to try and improve it each year like paul roos talked about on fox footy the other night. There is no clear blue print to a cup just a heap of follow the leader.

When you block up with spuds or pensioners ya need to do no.2. When you are clearly in your window you need to do no.1. No.3 is for everything inbetween imo.

I think coaching and list management being at arms length helps to avoid the club getting carried away with no.1. Having a comfortable coach probably makes a huge difference too.

No.1 seems to end in no.2 in most instances. Im not sure if we are fortunate or not that we didnt top up as much as we would of liked in the last 4 yrs. May have snagged us a flag, maybe not. Either way we are better placed atm because there is not a big gap in our list profile like we had in 2010-2014 with 22-26 yr olds

 

[PapaJ]

Yeah that's the weakness of confining yourself to an semi-arbitrary positional rating of a team and defining any dip below a certain point as a 'rebuild'. But as I say, the reason I did that is because it's super easy to do visually with no reference to anything else or trying to remember wtf happened in a particular year.

Don't be too apologetic. You're working in the confines of a BF post, it's not a multi-thousand word thesis. It gives a basic representation of things, a very good starting point, we can start splitting hairs from there but your post is still a good one.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Don't be too apologetic. You're working in the confines of a BF post, it's not a multi-thousand word thesis. It gives a basic representation of things, a very good starting point, we can start splitting hairs from there but your post is still a good one.

Cheers. I do actually think most of it is totally useless though because of the reasons pointed out. I think too, you can cross out anything pre-mid 2000s, when list management actually started to get fully professional. Hell, one of the more interesting books i've read on AFL history has a quote from Connolly that when he first came to Freo he was basically running shit out of his kitchen for a few months (with reference to fitness and coaching programs but still).

That's why I like the Collingwood example(s), and the Dogs recently, and the Saints (are they decent yet, I dunno?). There's clubs that made a conscious determination that said 'we're not up to it (for whatever reason), let's go to the draft, trade (or FA) our way into a few picks, and try and come back in a few years'. Sounds familiar.

 

[chinggis77]

I think between 2019 and 2021 we will be in our premiership windows (unfortunately so will GWS).

Fyfe, Walters, S Hill, Bennell, Neale and A Pearce should be all at there peak during that window.

I think the 1st strategy is to dump as much salary as possible and get as many free agency compensation picks as possible.

Next year will be target other teams list and the free agency pool, while resigning Fyfe.

We just need to add as many players around them who will peak at the same time. I would love us to find a 190cm defender who can play as the 3rd tall who is excellent as the 3rd man up and has elite skills. (A 23 year old Gibson)

Its so depressing looking at GWS and all the concessions, talent etc they have built up.

Even if players continue to leave, they will just trade those players for high draft picks so they can continually renew their team with elite talent.

AFL have screwed the "Competition".

We need a tonne of luck and very astute recruiting so that we can pull a few more Fyfe's out of the woodwork. We can't rely on good coaching, as coaching trends change all the time and any new innovative methods introduced by Lyon will be whittled away, copied, picked apart within half a season. It comes down to talent to get the edge on the competition.

 

[meima]

How far can freo go if only get cam mac this year with a fit fyfe, bennell and sandi. As for johnson i think he is half done.

 

[kp junior]

Funnily enough I was bored one night a few months ago and played around with the Squiggle to work this out - how long does it generally take a team to go from being consistently in the shit area, up into the premiership area (irrespective of if they win a premiership)?

Broadly, I came up with this, encompassing 1995-current:

Adelaide: 1 rebuild, 1999-2005 (6 years)
Brisbane: 1 dip 1997-2000, doesn't really count (draft concessions, cap concessions, fitzroy merger)
Carlton: 1 rebuild, 2002-2009 (7 years). Never really got up again, misjuged list and went too early
Collingwood: 2 rebuilds, one 2004-2008 (4 years), another one current at 3 years (2016 included)
Essendon: No rebuilds, cooked. Vague attempts at it since 2004, 2012 looked good before the Danksy juice struck
Freo: 1 rebuild (not really near it in 06 but were decent) 2008-2012 (4 years). Weren't rated 2010 by squiggle
Footscray: 2 rebuilds, sort of. Decent 97-00, decent 2008-2010. Rebuild 1: 2001-2008 (7 years), 2: 2011-2015 (4 years)
Geelong: 1 rebuild 1998-2005ish (7 years, Father Son helped)
GC: Not good yet
GWS: 4 years, massive concessions
Hawthorn: No real rebuilds in this period. Terrible for ~3 years pre-08, dipped for 2 years post 08 but didn't really rebuild.
Melbourne: 1 rebuild, spanning 2001-2015. 14 years. Finally coming good
Lol Norf: 1 rebuild, 2001-2011 (10 years). Probably somewhat hurt by the perception that truly bottoming out would kill the club
Port: 1 rebuild, 2008-2013 (5 years). Really didn't start a rebuild until 07 forced them. Now cooked again.
Richmond: Perenially shit
St.Kilda: 1 sort of rebuild 1999-2005 (6 years), another one current since 2012
Sydney: Never really bottomed out. Re-tooled 1999-2003 (4-5 years) and 2008-2011 (3 years). Salary and now draft concessions help
West Coast: 2 rebuilds. 1998-2004 (6 years) and 2008-2011 (3 years). Second one kind of took 6 years due to injuries (2010) and Woosha persisting with his cooked game plan.

Average: 5.6 years. Melbourne not included. North included.

"Good" rebuilds comparable to Freo's current predicament:

-Collingwood 2004-2008 (worse shape than us) 4 years
-Fremantle 2008-2012 (similar shape to now) 4 years
-Footscray 2011-2015 (similar to slightly worse shape) 4 years
-Saints 2012-2016* (similar to slightly worse shape) 4 years*
-Sydney 2008-2011 (similar shape to us, cap concessions a huge help) 3 years

-You could also argue Hawthorn 09-12 but they never really bottomed out like we did this year. I tend to like the comparison given a core chunk of players are the same though.

*Not actually good yet but seem to be coming good.

Anyway a lot of that is really my judgement call rather than actual objective data. Make of it what you will, i'm sure many will have issues with bits of it.

The problem I have with this is everything changed once we hit the free agency era. Really FA onwards is the only history that is relevant. You don't need the slow full rebuild through the draft anymore, hence the quick reboot is a real possibility

 

[TheMcManusNose]

The problem I have with this is everything changed once we hit the free agency era. Really FA onwards is the only history that is relevant. You don't need the slow full rebuild through the draft anymore, hence the quick reboot is a real possibility

Yeah sort of. Mind you, when was the last time you had a player as for a trade and not get one (McCarthy excepted)? Pretty rare even before FA. But I agree it improves your ability to just throw money around to attract talent - maybe less so for us though as a WA side. More players moving around improves the chances though.

I think the relevant part is that teams like the Dogs, the Saints and the Pies have gone really hard at a couple 2 drafts recently and that seems to be the mold. You bring in a bunch of highly rated talent via higher picks, and higher volume of picks, (in the dogs case by F/S abuse as well) over a couple of years, pump 50 games into them and then look at trades/FA. Think that's probably what we'll do.

 

[free at last]

Its so depressing looking at GWS and all the concessions, talent etc they have built up.

Even if players continue to leave, they will just trade those players for high draft picks so they can continually renew their team with elite talent.

AFL have screwed the "Competition".

We need a tonne of luck and very astute recruiting so that we can pull a few more Fyfe's out of the woodwork. We can't rely on good coaching, as coaching trends change all the time and any new innovative methods introduced by Lyon will be whittled away, copied, picked apart within half a season. It comes down to talent to get the edge on the competition.

I can't see how GWS can possibly be weakened for a very very very long time!

 

[Square Peg]

I can't see how GWS can possibly be weakened for a very very very long time!

I don't usually wish an ASADA investigation on anyone, but for GWS......

 

[Allikat]

Time for a new thread guys! Maybe you can keep the next one on topic
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ft-trading-free-agency.1145611/#post-46745165