Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[DaVillaBlues]

I don't thin teams ever do a major list turn over for the sake of it. At the end of the year if Bolton and the team think they need to do a mass clean out then so be it, i am backing the people we have in place to make these calls and am prepared for a bit of paon.

The problem is that we haven't got a whole lot of decent trade assets (in terms of players), we pretty much went to the well with that last year...

I don't want to get rid of players just for the sake of it, especially if we haven't got ready made replacements.

There is also a danger of giving up on players too soon. DVR (whom a few have got on the endangered list) could possibly come back to haunt us at another club.

We need to start having less list 'turnover' annually, I don't think that getting rid of 10 -12 players every year (combined primary & rookie lists) creates a stable working and development environment for players (although there was extenuating circumstances last year)

 

[DangerousD]

I'm of the opposite opinion actually, I think we need one more year of major list changes. From there, tinkering can take place. This is my ideal trade period.

Carlton finishes, for arguments sake - 17th. We end up with picks #2, #21, #40, #58 (taking into account of a few FA compo picks)

The m-o, two top 10 first rounders (per the Schmurf rumour) and as many high picks as possible besides that.

Gold Coast have two First Rounders - their own and Melbournes(??)
GWS have three First Rounders - their own and Collingwood & Geelongs.

Lets say for arguments sake that;
GC have picks - #8 (melb) and pick #11(their own)
GWS have picks - #7 (Coll) and pick #12 (their own) and #14 (Geel)

That's where we need to be targetting for high draft picks. Both expansion clubs have highly rated Academy kids and will be looking to secure very high picks and a multitude of second rounders in pursuit of that.

TRADE 1
Carlton 2017 Future First Rounder - GWS Picks #7 and #14

Carlton trades their future first round pick from 2017 to GWS for their highest and lowest first rounder. GWS realise that these picks will likely be eaten up by Academy players when they get the inevitable early bid, rather than lose value on these picks they mortgage them off for Carlton's 2017 first pick banking on Carlton finishing low again and getting another gun kid to spread the age profile. Carlton secures two first round picks in an effort to tighten their age profile and hope to get value for money banking on an improved 2017 season.

Issues with this trade, GWS may not bite on this deal as it is, there is always the possibility that Carlton pushes high enough up the ladder to mean that GWS trade two picks for a pick lower than the highest they gave up. Possible ways to sweeten this trade, include Carlton's #21 which GWS will want for points on Academy players. This will definitely look tantalizing for GWS and they'll have to pull the trigger. Carlton could even as for Tomlinson here as well.

Carlton now has;
Best Case Scenario- #2, #7, #14, #21, #40 and #58
Worst Case Scenario - #2, #7, #14, #40 and #58

Now that nets us two top 10 picks, and #14 and depending on how hard GWS play we may have pick #21 still in play as well.

If we give up pick #21 I think we have to call it there on the draft pick aquisition, the player trade market could be teased out, with #14 being a very valuable carrot to dangle out there.

However should we keep #21 I believe it's time to go for the jugular witb Gold Coast

TRADE 2
Carlton Casboult/Everitt/X Player - Whoever's 2nd Round Picks

This is the hardest trade to visualise and pull off, Casboult to a Fremantle/Brisbane/Melbourne could be a way to make this happen, GC might want Everitt as a piece to their puzzle, or perhaps a player like Whiley, Lamb, or anyone really who plays a few good games this year and we can get some value on them. Pick #40 can be thrown in here to sweeten the deal, if we're targetting a pick like #27 it shouldnt be too hard to get with a player alone or a player and #40.

The aim of the game is to get another second rounder, thats all we need, if we do that, we'll be golden.

TRADE 3
Carlton #21 and 2nd Round Pick (Result of Trade 2) - Gold Coast for #8

Gold Coast's #8 will be eaten up here by an academy bid making it almost worthless, instead they'll be looking to trade down, last year we saw the ease with which clubs traded two second round picks for high first rounders, this deal is simple and a win for both parties.

Carlton finishes up with picks #2, #7, #8, #14, #40, #58

By adding four first round draft picks to the list we turn over the list, tighten the age profile and look to improve in 2017. The majority of our team, close to 35 players will sit in the 18-24 year old bracket ranging from fresh faced draftees through last years crop, to Boekhurst and Cripps and up to Docherty. Combined with an experienced brigade of Touhy, Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, E. Curnow etc we will have a list that can jump up the ladder quickly into finals contention.

Dont be afraid of missing out on a first round pick in 2017 and putting all our eggs into one basket as we can always trade a 2018 second rounder and 2017 second rounder for a 2017 first rounder from an Academy/FS club. However after this offseason we begin to turn the list over less, bringing in 3 kids each year, with hopefully one very solid kid. Look to hit Free Agency from there and we have the makings of a premiership side.

Geez man my head hurts, i like this thinking but think some deals you have in there are crazy one sided in our favour. Pick 21 and a 2nd round pick for gold coasts pick 8, didn't we trade 19 and 22 last year to jump up to pick 12?
GWS i doubt will need to load up again this season for points, as you pointed out they already have 3 first round selections. They will also trade out McCarthy getting another pick to stockpile for points and will probably lose another fringe player or two netting themselves more points or future points.
Unless Casboult and Everitt have good seasons their worth wont be as high as a second round but who knows.

As the season gets older we will have a better understanding of players values and our likely ladder position, i think we will be aggressive and target another first round selection but there is so many ways this can happen nowadays.

 

[DangerousD]

Gone and At Risk

Simpson (ret) - almost 32 now, disposal looking a bit shaky and plenty of depth on the list at HB, let him go on his terms though
Jamison (ret) - can't see the body giving him another year
Armfield (ret) - too many young blokes filling his role now, hopefully offered a VFL coaching gig
Wood (del) - or retired, take your pick, don't think he'll be picked up by anyone else though
Walker (ret) - not too old that he couldn't keep playing, but it all comes down to fitness
Dick (del) - looks capable at VFL level, but not demanding senior selection
Sheehan (del) - if he can't get the body right this year, I think we may have to let him go, 4 career games at 26yo isn't great
Gowers (del) - unsighted at senior level, churn and burn for midfield rookies

Beyond that, Everitt should be offered up for trade (GC).

The following year we'd likely be wanting to remove Daisy, Rowe, White, Tutt, Jones and any of the recent draftees/recruits who aren't delivering (Smith, DVR, Gorringe, Lamb).

So 9 changes at the end of this year, 6-8 next year pending form.

2016: Trading our first pick for two top 10 picks, plus some trading up of later picks to academy clubs, should see us go into the draft with 4 in the top 25, plus one or two late picks. Say we take 5 at the draft, 3 rookies, and one "steak-knives player" or free agent.

I hope by remove Daisy you are talking about a trade? He is the same age as Murphy so it cant be based on age. I hope we can offload him this year for a second round pick somewhere 30-36.

 

[ShanDog]

The problem is that we haven't got a whole lot of decent trade assets (in terms of players), we pretty much went to the well with that last year...

I don't want to get rid of players just for the sake of it, especially if we haven't got ready made replacements.

There is also a danger of giving up on players too soon. DVR (whom a few have got on the endangered list) could possibly come back to haunt us at another club.

We need to start having less list 'turnover' annually, I don't think that getting rid of 10 -12 players every year (combined primary & rookie lists) creates a stable working and development environment for players (although there was extenuating circumstances last year)

Only problem with trying to mimise list turnover and the disruption that causes is that we have a number of players rapidly approaching retirement age and a number who look like they aren't going to be particularly good.

 

[DangerousD]

The problem is that we haven't got a whole lot of decent trade assets (in terms of players), we pretty much went to the well with that last year...

I don't want to get rid of players just for the sake of it, especially if we haven't got ready made replacements.

There is also a danger of giving up on players too soon. DVR (whom a few have got on the endangered list) could possibly come back to haunt us at another club.

We need to start having less list 'turnover' annually, I don't think that getting rid of 10 -12 players every year (combined primary & rookie lists) creates a stable working and development environment for players (although there was extenuating circumstances last year)

Agreed, it will come down slowly, in my opinion the list changes will come from the older players like Rowe, Jamison, White, Walker, Simpson, Armfield, Jones, Dick, Tutt, Whiley, Everitt, Thomas, Casboult. The last 3 having some form of trade potential 30-40 if they have a good season. Then there is Kruezer he would suit the dogs and be worth their first pick 15-18.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Geez man my head hurts, i like this thinking but think some deals you have in there are crazy one sided in our favour. Pick 21 and a 2nd round pick for gold coasts pick 8, didn't we trade 19 and 22 last year to jump up to pick 12?
GWS i doubt will need to load up again this season for points, as you pointed out they already have 3 first round selections. They will also trade out McCarthy getting another pick to stockpile for points and will probably lose another fringe player or two netting themselves more points or future points.
Unless Casboult and Everitt have good seasons their worth wont be as high as a second round but who knows.

As the season gets older we will have a better understanding of players values and our likely ladder position, i think we will be aggressive and target another first round selection but there is so many ways this can happen nowadays.

It doesnt have to be pick #8, it could be Gold Coasts other pick i'm not fussed. The point remains however that they WILL HAVE to cut those picks to save value on their Academy selection.

If their player is rated anywhere above their first selection it will result in them losing their first and eating into their next. They-ll want to avoid that.

I dunno we'll see how things play out.

I think we should definitely be looking to trade our 2018 first though and load up on this draft.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I dont think there is any chance Simmo retires after this year. Has two more in him at least IMHO

 

[ShanDog]

I think we should definitely be looking to trade our 2018 first though and load up on this draft.

I don't think trading out future first round picks is the right way ahead - at least not in the next year or two. I know we all want and hope for rapid improvement but I think we will be in the bottom half of the ladder for a couple of years yet. All these young draftees need a few years to become high quality AFL players and trading ourselves out of the first round of any upcoming drafts is very risky in that regard. There's always exceptions based on what the deal involves, but the recurring theme preached by the club at the moment is building for sustained success.

 

[thylacine60]

I dont think there is any chance Simmo retires after this year. Has two more in him at least IMHO

mmm...

 

[LordLucifer]

I don't think trading out future first round picks is the right way ahead - at least not in the next year or two.

100% correct !!

No club can turn around a crap list in one off-season especially when you have finished last. It took a while for us to have a very ordinary list so it stands to reason that it is going to take even longer to build a very good one.

People need to stop trying to invent theories on how to create shortcuts, we have to do the hard yards and for the next few years too. There are no quick-fixes so trading future picks, trading first-rounders and relying on rookie draftees to become Brownlow Medallists is the stuff of fantasy-land.

Strategic & sustainable list changes in line with a long-term plan coupled with ongoing player development is the recipe for success.

 

[ShanDog]

100% correct !!

No club can turn around a crap list in one off-season especially when you have finished last. It took a while for us to have a very ordinary list so it stands to reason that it is going to take even longer to build a very good one.

People need to stop trying to invent theories on how to create shortcuts, we have to do the hard yards and for the new few years too. There are no quick-fixes so trading future picks, trading first-rounders and relying on rookie draftees to become Brownlow Medallists is the stuff of fantasy-land.

Strategic & sustainable list changes in line with a long-term plan coupled with ongoing player development is the recipe for success.

Very much agree with your last paragraph, bit I do think it's not always cut-and-dry.

It's a fanciful hypothetical, but pretending GCS were agreeable to a trade of Prestia for a 2017 pick #6, your have to take it wouldn't you? Passing up a genuine midfield gun and HOPING you pick one in the draft instead for the sake of being 4 years younger seems like self-sabotage. But, unless the player fits that age and skill requirement, I agree that we should not entertain 'gambling' future picks away.

 

[Malifice]

For those that are arguing against us trading pick 1 for 2 first rounders (say for arguments sake picks 6 and 13).

Pick 1 is worth 3000 points via bidding. Picks 6 and 13 are worth 2963 points via same. So were paying slightly overs here.

Here are the different lists assembled assuming you pursued a strategy of downgrading pick 1 to these picks over a six year period:

2008: Pick 1: Jack Watts. Pick 6 and 13: Chris Yarran, Tom Lynch (Rich, Ziebell and Sidebottom came between 6 and 13
2009: Pick 1: Tom Scully. Picks 6 and 13: Gary Rohan, Daniel Talia (Nat Fyfe at 20)
2010: Pick 1: David Swallow. Picks 6 and 13: Reece Conca, Seb Tabe (lol - Heppell, Lynch came after Conca, and Jack Darling lasted to 26)
2011: Pick 1: John Patton. Picks 6 and 13: Chad Wingard, Taylor Adams (Docherty taken at 12)
2012: Pick 1: Lachie Whitfied. Picks 6 and 13: Jackson Macrae, Jessie Lonergan (Ollie wines at 7)
2013: Pick 1 Tom Boyd. Picks 6 and 13: Matt Scharenberg, Patrick Cripps.

Pick 1 list. Jack Watts, Tom Scully, David Swallow, John Patton, Lachie Whitfield, Tom Boyd.
'Split Pick' list: Chad Wingard, Daniel Talia, Patrick Cripps, Jackson Macrae, Chris Yarran, Gary Rohan, Reence Conca, Seb Tabe, Tom Lynch, Taylor Adams, Jessie Lonergan, Matt Scharenberg.

The 'Pick 1' list has more top end talent, at the cost of depth. Its a trap we've fallen into too many times (and made worse by trading out our 2nd round picks and having to load up on rookies and late round picks for depth). Its why our list is so wonkly (that a the Lucas/ Bootsma/ Watson selections) with top end talent, and then a yawning gap to the bit players in the Rowes, Whites, Armfields and so forth.

Unless there is a standout 1 pick (and the 1 pick is rarely the best player in any draft) I say we split it and look to depth (and roll the dice).

 

[Jimmae]

My take right now:

Out: Dick, Tutt, Jones, Rowe, Whiley, Foster, Wood (rookie)

Trade: Everitt, White

Re-sign: Simpson (1 year), Armfield (1 year), Casboult (2 years), Buckley (2 years), Bokehorst (2 years), Sumner (1+1 year), Plowman (2+1 years), Smith (1+1 year), Tuohy (3 years), Graham (2 years), Lamb (1+1 year), DVR (1+1 year)

Retain: Gowers (3rd year), Glass-McCasker (2nd year), Korcheck (2nd year), Gallucci (2nd year)

Elevate: Sheehan, Byrne

That leaves up to 7 spots on the senior list if we go up to 40, and a grand total of 9 list changes.

 

[Malifice]

My take right now:

Out: Dick, Tutt, Jones, Rowe, Whiley, Foster, Wood (rookie)
Trade: Everitt, White

Re-sign: Simpson (1 year), Armfield (1 year), Casboult (2 years), Buckley (2 years), Bokehorst (2 years), Sumner (1+1 year), Plowman (2+1 years), Smith (1+1 year), Tuohy (3 years), Graham (2 years), Lamb (1+1 year), DVR (1+1 year)

Retain: Gowers (3rd year), Glass-McCasker (2nd year), Korcheck (2nd year)

Elevate: Sheehan, Byrne

That leaves up to 9 spots on the senior list if we go up to 40, and a grand total of 11 list changes.

I would trade out Casbout or Touhy (both 26) plus our second round pick (around 22) for a single pick in the 10 range. A 12 spot/ 500 point (pick 10 = 1395 points, pick 22 = 835 points) upgrade in the draft. They'd be worth that for a side that is pushing for the top 8 or finished just inside it.

In fact, I would trade out both of them for offers in this range (give or take). We have young forwards and young rebounding backs, and could use an extra few picks at the pointy end for extra depth going forwards. We might even uncover a gem (and there is a good chance of that if we get 2 rolls of the dice at the pick 10 area). We could also then afford to hold onto pick 1 or 2 (depending on where we finish).

Way I see it is 'In 5 years when we are starting to challenge, what value will these players give us then' opposed to 'Theyre more valuable to us as commodities now, rather than holding them for limited value in 5 years time'.

 

[Jimmae]

I'd rather gnaw off my own hand than shake on trades for that little. I'd also saw off my leg if we expect it to take 5 years to make the 8.

I've never believed in the 5-year plan, and thankfully neither do AFL coaches at present. You can't even sell a 5-year plan to draftees.

 

[Malifice]

I'd rather gnaw off my own hand than trade away for that little.

Go back and have a look at the players taken with picks at around the 10 mark. Some very good players there. We're using the value of Cas and Zac to increase the talent of our second round picks to the value of mid first rounders. A 560 point upgrade. 560 points on its own is worth pick 33.

I'd also saw off my leg if we expect it to take 5 years to make the 8.

You're in for a very rude shock then my soon to be one legged friend. The current list we have is lopsided and rather rubbish. Hence the bottom finish last year - behind even Brisbane and Melbourne, and the winless season so far this year. We'll struggle to win 4 games this year. This year, and the next two years the focus is on rebuilding. The club has been clear on this. We're focussing on getting as many kids into the side as we can from the top end of the draft over the next 3 years. With a focus on depth (based on what SOS has been doing with getting in batches of kids), and get at least one top end talent under 24 into the side each year.

We're going to be a very young side after the next 3 years is done - there is no way we'll be looking to push up into the top 8 till 5 years has passed at least.

 

[Soapy V]

ill let sos work it out but i expect another 8-10 changes this year

 

[HARKER]

The problem is that we haven't got a whole lot of decent trade assets (in terms of players), we pretty much went to the well with that last year...
I don't want to get rid of players just for the sake of it, especially if we haven't got ready made replacements.
There is also a danger of giving up on players too soon. DVR (whom a few have got on the endangered list) could possibly come back to haunt us at another club.

We need to start having less list 'turnover' annually, I don't think that getting rid of 10 -12 players every year (combined primary & rookie lists) creates a stable working and development environment for players (although there was extenuating circumstances last year)

Look no further than the 2013 draft.

There have been only 7 de-listings up to about selection #70.
2 of those guys were Carlton players and another one being Dayle Garlett. All the other guys were given more time by way of a contract.

That alone tells you that we won't hand on too long to a player, which can be somewhat unfair at times.

 

[Jimmae]

Go back and have a look at the players taken with picks at around the 10 mark. Some very good players there. We're using the value of Cas and Zac to increase the talent of our second round picks to the value of mid first rounders. A 560 point upgrade. 560 points on its own is worth pick 33.



You're in for a very rude shock then my soon to be one legged friend. The current list we have is lopsided and rather rubbish. Hence the bottom finish last year - behind even Brisbane and Melbourne, and the winless season so far this year. We'll struggle to win 4 games this year. This year, and the next two years the focus is on rebuilding. The club has been clear on this. We're focussing on getting as many kids into the side as we can from the top end of the draft over the next 3 years. With a focus on depth (based on what SOS has been doing with getting in batches of kids), and get at least one top end talent under 24 into the side each year.

We're going to be a very young side after the next 3 years is done - there is no way we'll be looking to push up into the top 8 till 5 years has passed at least.

I think I'll be ok in terms of having all my hands and feet.

Tuohy and Casboult are worth picks in the 15-30 range straight up, and I'd rather not trade our best rebounding defender and best forward/ruck for a pick upgrade in a draft where the upgrade wouldn't make that much difference.

We're a year into a 3-year plan to move into the top 8, and we need senior reinforcements in defence, midfield and then a raft of youngsters to develop as we push.

 

[DangerousD]

For those that are arguing against us trading pick 1 for 2 first rounders (say for arguments sake picks 6 and 13).

Pick 1 is worth 3000 points via bidding. Picks 6 and 13 are worth 2963 points via same. So were paying slightly overs here.

Here are the different lists assembled assuming you pursued a strategy of downgrading pick 1 to these picks over a six year period:

2008: Pick 1: Jack Watts. Pick 6 and 13: Chris Yarran, Tom Lynch (Rich, Ziebell and Sidebottom came between 6 and 13
2009: Pick 1: Tom Scully. Picks 6 and 13: Gary Rohan, Daniel Talia (Nat Fyfe at 20)
2010: Pick 1: David Swallow. Picks 6 and 13: Reece Conca, Seb Tabe (lol - Heppell, Lynch came after Conca, and Jack Darling lasted to 26)
2011: Pick 1: John Patton. Picks 6 and 13: Chad Wingard, Taylor Adams (Docherty taken at 12)
2012: Pick 1: Lachie Whitfied. Picks 6 and 13: Jackson Macrae, Jessie Lonergan (Ollie wines at 7)
2013: Pick 1 Tom Boyd. Picks 6 and 13: Matt Scharenberg, Patrick Cripps.

Pick 1 list. Jack Watts, Tom Scully, David Swallow, John Patton, Lachie Whitfield, Tom Boyd.
'Split Pick' list: Chad Wingard, Daniel Talia, Patrick Cripps, Jackson Macrae, Chris Yarran, Gary Rohan, Reence Conca, Seb Tabe, Tom Lynch, Taylor Adams, Jessie Lonergan, Matt Scharenberg.

The 'Pick 1' list has more top end talent, at the cost of depth. Its a trap we've fallen into too many times (and made worse by trading out our 2nd round picks and having to load up on rookies and late round picks for depth). Its why our list is so wonkly (that a the Lucas/ Bootsma/ Watson selections) with top end talent, and then a yawning gap to the bit players in the Rowes, Whites, Armfields and so forth.

Unless there is a standout 1 pick (and the 1 pick is rarely the best player in any draft) I say we split it and look to depth (and roll the dice).

I really like this.
The problem is your last sentence, unless there is a standout 1 pick. Every year the club with pick 1 thinks that there guy is the best number 1 in years and will be an out and out star. I would take 6 and 13.

 

[MrsEddieBetts]

I think I'll be ok in terms of having all my hands and feet.

Tuohy and Casboult are worth picks in the 15-30 range straight up, and I'd rather not trade our best rebounding defender and best forward/ruck for a pick upgrade in a draft where the upgrade wouldn't make that much difference.

We're a year into a 3-year plan to move into the top 8, and we need senior reinforcements in defence, midfield and then a raft of youngsters to develop as we push.

Sometimes the timing just doesn't match up between a player figuring it all out and the club's needs.

 

[Jimmae]

Sometimes the timing just doesn't match up between a player figuring it all out and the club's needs.

We're not using Levi the way I'd plan to use him in a finals side. We're waiting on Curnow, Silvagni and McKay to kick on a bit.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I really like this.
The problem is your last sentence, unless there is a standout 1 pick. Every year the club with pick 1 thinks that there guy is the best number 1 in years and will be an out and out star. I would take 6 and 13.

It has to be a stand out number one for a club to bite with #6 and #13.

In 2015, the 6th and 13th non academy picks were Callum Ah Chee and Jade Gresham. Would you swap Weitering for them?

 

[Malifice]

I really like this.
The problem is your last sentence, unless there is a standout 1 pick. Every year the club with pick 1 thinks that there guy is the best number 1 in years and will be an out and out star. I would take 6 and 13.

Yeah, and based on what Im reading on teh D and T boards, there really isnt one this year. The big standout at this stage is a small forward (who looks alright, like a better version of Blair from the Pies). After that, there are a large crop of mids in the first round.

 

[Malifice]

Tuohy and Casboult are worth picks in the 15-30 range straight up, and I'd rather not trade our best rebounding defender and best forward/ruck for a pick upgrade in a draft where the upgrade wouldn't make that much difference.

Pick 30 is worth 600 points. Id rather use those 600 points to push deeper into the first round (covert 22 into 10) than scatter gun selections around the 30's mark.

We're a year into a 3-year plan to move into the top 8, and we need senior reinforcements in defence, midfield and then a raft of youngsters to develop as we push.

Thats not the rebuild mate. Were 2 games into turning the list over. Its gonna take three years just to do that.

From there we push upwards. Our list is diabiolical. Unbalanced in age, talent and in areas of the ground.

Its going to take McKay 3 years to get a regular game. Silvagni longer.

In 5 years Paddy Cripps will be 25. Weitering 23. These are the blokes we build a side around.

Patience young padawan, patience.