Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[FlowersByIrene]

If we do this, then I'm going to be convinced that we've learned nothing.

Adding premium best 22 talent from sides above us on the ladder, yep definitely a stupid move.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Why does everyone want to get rid of Touhy. Beautiful kick, quick, durable and Irish.

Beautiful 50m kick, not so beautiful over 15m

 

[FlowersByIrene]

That is very true.

And even fully fit I would be concerned about trading our first rounder for a guy who's unlikely to ever be elite. Our first rounder is too much, our second is too little.

Prestia has ALREADY been elite in the past lol, jesus christ people rate him lowly

 

[Blue Baggers]

Hearing we are looking at 3 mids, using our first on a tall mid from the draft and trading for a couple of quality mids from other clubs.

Any suggestions who the tall mid from the draft will be?

 

[Jabba73]

Beautiful 50m kick, not so beautiful over 15m

Seems he could kick it through the open window of a car travelling 15 lanes across the highway at 110 kms but couldn't hit the side of the bus parked in the near side emergency lane.

Can be frustrating at times.

 

[DollarsandSense]

All I can add is that I'm very bloody excited about trade and draft period this year, after SOSs effort last year. This is going to be a very exciting time for us all!!

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

GWS list mgr just on road to the draft with Cal Twomey and inferred they want Steele to stay and it seems Tomlinson and Marchbank may be checked out already.

I thought Cameron played a straight bat to questions about Marchbank and Tomlinson. Said Marchbank was injured, may need surgery, see what happens. Tomlinson was playing and didn't really want to talk draft strategy.

I don't think that means they have checked out but may suggest that GWS are prepared for them to leave.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Hearing we are looking at 3 mids, using our first on a tall mid from the draft and trading for a couple of quality mids from other clubs.

Any suggestions who the tall mid from the draft will be?

Brodie is 189cm
Drew and Powell-Pepper are 188
Bowes is 187
McLuggae is 185
Scharenberg is 185

Not too many tall midfielders this year, unless any of that lot has grown.
Settlerfield the GWS Academy boy is also like 187 or so.

 

[Funk]

I'm not suggesting that he plays as a ruckman, unless in the unlikely situation that Kreuzer, Phillips, Gorringe and Korchek (plus Rowe) are all out injured.

On the other hand, if he's in the senior team alongside Phillips and Kreuzer, then I would expect him to take a handful of boundary throw-ins and/or centre-bounces to give him a taste.

Him and Kreuzer/Phillips the forward line seems top heavy to me

 

[Funk]

Why does everyone want to get rid of Touhy. Beautiful kick, quick, durable and Irish.

Because we've got about 5 HBF's and **** all MID's.

 

[Funk]

Brodie is 189cm
Drew and Powell-Pepper are 188
Bowes is 187
McLuggae is 185
Scharenberg is 185

Not too many tall midfielders this year, unless any of that lot has grown.
Settlerfield the GWS Academy boy is also like 187 or so.

I bags McLuggage

 

[Jabba73]

I bags McLuggage

Give us the briefcase why you want him.

 

[RiCHii]

I agree that by asking for a 1st rounder for Yarran but offering a 2nd rounder for Prestia sounds ludicrous but another factor to take into consideration is the depth/class of the drafts compared. Last years draft was said to be shallow, whereas this years draft is the opposite. I believe Prestia is worth between pick 14-17 , however we do not have those picks. I would offer our second round pick and Everitt. Lets hope he nominates us!

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Adding premium best 22 talent from sides above us on the ladder, yep definitely a stupid move.

Ok, here goes a massive post:

Judging by your previous posts and your view on this one it seems that you aren't very patient. Unfortunately, patience is going to be required. You told me a couple of weeks ago that finals isn't out of the question for us next year. Do you honestly still hold that view after seeing how poorly we perform in the midfield?

We have drafted players last year that will take years to reach their potential. Yes I do think it's a VERY stupid move to go giving up pick #4 for midfielders like Prestia and Mitchell or a full back like Marchbank. Reason being is that Prestia will (imo) cost us more than just pick#4. GC won't do a straight swap and if his injury woes continue then it will be a bust, particularly if that player that we would likely have taken at Pick #4 ends up being an outright star. Marchbank and Mitchell aren't worth pick#4 either. Let's not forget who Mitchell has around him in the Swans midfield. Will he have the same impact in ours? It's doubtful. Marchbank also injury prone and hasn't really proven himself yet either to be honest.

I would prefer to build our own strong midfield group from smart draft choices and by being willing enough to take risks to obtain more high draft picks. I've said many times recently that I think the way forward for us is to obtain two top 10 picks this year and next, totaling to 4 top 10 picks over the next 2 drafts. To get those picks we need to be bold during trade week. We need to take a realistic look at our list, realise that we have a severe lack of elite talent and depth that will take years to resolve. Then we need to look at the players that most likely won't be around or playing at their best due to their age and try and maximise their value now. Casboult is one of them. Trade Casboult for a second rounder. Use that second rounder and our two third round picks to build points that exceed GC's Melbourne pick. That way we turn Casboult and two third rounders into a high draft pick that (with smart recruiting and luck) will become an elite player for us. Brisbane could be a great suitor for Cas. They already have an additional second round pick and they could really use a stronger body to help Schache and Hipwood out. They may even back themselves to fix Casboult's kicking woes. GC would definitely be interested in Sheer. If we can get a second rounder at pick #24 and add the points to pick #40 and #49, then that would overtake the points of pick#9. So Brisbane will feel like they win, GC would feel like they win and we would also feel like we win.

Then we take 2 of the best mids from this year's draft. If we want to be even bolder, we could offer Gibbs to GWS for another top 10 pick. Gibbs clearly can't handle being the #1 mid. With the support of the GWS mids he will thrive and possibly finish his career with a flag or two. At Carlton he most likely (imo) won't have that opportunity.

If we go into this year's draft with three top 10 picks we can pick a core group of mids that will grow together and have Cripps leading the way in the future.

Then in 2017 draft, we use our first pick (which will most likely be another top 10 pick) and we try and get an additional top 10 pick by offering up 2018 first rounder and a player.

4-5 top 10 picks in the next two drafts to add to our 3 top ten picks from last year will help us build a core group of young talented players. When they start to thrive, THEN we start thinking about adding in established players to fill the gaps.

You say adding premium best 22 talent from sides above us on the ladder? Where's GC buddy? They're actually below us in case you weren't aware. Is Marchbank best 22 in GWS? Well he's been injury prone and never really proven himself to be best 22 so where is this evidence that he's premium best 22 talent? Mitchell's the only one but as I said he already has enormous support from the other mids in the Swans outfit, the going will be a lot tougher at Carlton. I'd prefer to package Touhy and maybe next year's third rounder and say to the Swans take it or leave it. Another thing you forget to factor in is how much salary cap space are they going to take up? As our younger players start to improve they are going to want to be paid accordingly the last thing we can afford to do is risk losing them because we can't stick to the cap.

The main fear I have is, if we top up with these players we will finish mid range next year or two. That means a draft pick outside top 10 and a second rounder outside top 25. Which makes it harder to bring in elite young talent. We have too many deficiencies in the side with depth and elite talent and those pick ranges make it hard to recover from those deficiencies.

Many people look at the Hawks and say well they bring in players. Yeah that's because they're in the position to do that. Let's not forget these facts though:

In 2001 Hawks had picks #1, #16, #20, #32 and #36. Now only Hodge and Mitchell were the elites Hodge at #1 obviously and they got lucky with Mitchell having seen him develop at Box Hill and knew not too many other clubs would've been interested in him early on. They also got Ladson at #16 and Campbell Brown with #32.

2004 they had #2, #5 and #7. Got Roughead, Franklin and Lewis.
2005 they had #3, #6 and #14. Picked another flag player in Ellis and dud Dowler and got Birchall with #14
2006 they had #6 and #24. They picked another dud Thorp and got Renouf with #24.
2007 they had #12 and got Rioli.

*Bolded players played in a flag or more...

Now from 2001 to 2007 drafts, these are the players they traded in:

2002: Peter Everitt for #6 + #22 and Kingsley Hunter for #35
2003: Trent Croad for #10, Beaumont for Loats, Danny Jacobs for Veale
2004: Beau Nixon and pick#7 for pick#10 and #37

Now, let me ask you: Where are the elite players the Hawks brought in? From the draft (mainly top 10 picks) or from trading in? 11 Players from the early part of the drafts that played in their premiership sides and only one from trades. Even Stuart Dew was taken in the draft at #45 in 2007 and Guerra was taken in the pre season draft and Gilham was also taken in the rookie draft.

Osbourne, Williams, Campbell, Sewell, Bateman all drafted.

So for their 2008 flag, Trent Croad was the only player they traded in. They were patient. They hung onto their picks. Once they established a strong core of young talented players THEN they started trading in and they were/are a place of destination due to their success. Now they're in fact in the best position to pick up Mitchell and they'll gladly give up their first rounder which is more than what we should be trying to offer.

That's the position I want us to be in. It might take a while, but it will be well worth it.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I remember sos saying if we had pick one, it would be off the table but anything else early in the draft and we would consider turning it into 2 later first rounders.

I'd say that's what we will be doing.

 

[FootyGeek]

Ok, here goes a massive post:

Judging by your previous posts and your view on this one it seems that you aren't very patient. Unfortunately, patience is going to be required. You told me a couple of weeks ago that finals isn't out of the question for us next year. Do you honestly still hold that view after seeing how poorly we perform in the midfield?

We have drafted players last year that will take years to reach their potential. Yes I do think it's a VERY stupid move to go giving up pick #4 for midfielders like Prestia and Mitchell or a full back like Marchbank. Reason being is that Prestia will (imo) cost us more than just pick#4. GC won't do a straight swap and if his injury woes continue then it will be a bust, particularly if that player that we would likely have taken at Pick #4 ends up being an outright star. Marchbank and Mitchell aren't worth pick#4 either. Let's not forget who Mitchell has around him in the Swans midfield. Will he have the same impact in ours? It's doubtful. Marchbank also injury prone and hasn't really proven himself yet either to be honest.

I would prefer to build our own strong midfield group from smart draft choices and by being willing enough to take risks to obtain more high draft picks. I've said many times recently that I think the way forward for us is to obtain two top 10 picks this year and next, totaling to 4 top 10 picks over the next 2 drafts. To get those picks we need to be bold during trade week. We need to take a realistic look at our list, realise that we have a severe lack of elite talent and depth that will take years to resolve. Then we need to look at the players that most likely won't be around or playing at their best due to their age and try and maximise their value now. Casboult is one of them. Trade Casboult for a second rounder. Use that second rounder and our two third round picks to build points that exceed GC's Melbourne pick. That way we turn Casboult and two third rounders into a high draft pick that (with smart recruiting and luck) will become an elite player for us. Brisbane could be a great suitor for Cas. They already have an additional second round pick and they could really use a stronger body to help Schache and Hipwood out. They may even back themselves to fix Casboult's kicking woes. GC would definitely be interested in Sheer. If we can get a second rounder at pick #24 and add the points to pick #40 and #49, then that would overtake the points of pick#9. So Brisbane will feel like they win, GC would feel like they win and we would also feel like we win.

Then we take 2 of the best mids from this year's draft. If we want to be even bolder, we could offer Gibbs to GWS for another top 10 pick. Gibbs clearly can't handle being the #1 mid. With the support of the GWS mids he will thrive and possibly finish his career with a flag or two. At Carlton he most likely (imo) won't have that opportunity.

If we go into this year's draft with three top 10 picks we can pick a core group of mids that will grow together and have Cripps leading the way in the future.

Then in 2017 draft, we use our first pick (which will most likely be another top 10 pick) and we try and get an additional top 10 pick by offering up 2018 first rounder and a player.

4-5 top 10 picks in the next two drafts to add to our 3 top ten picks from last year will help us build a core group of young talented players. When they start to thrive, THEN we start thinking about adding in established players to fill the gaps.

You say adding premium best 22 talent from sides above us on the ladder? Where's GC buddy? They're actually below us in case you weren't aware. Is Marchbank best 22 in GWS? Well he's been injury prone and never really proven himself to be best 22 so where is this evidence that he's premium best 22 talent? Mitchell's the only one but as I said he already has enormous support from the other mids in the Swans outfit, the going will be a lot tougher at Carlton. I'd prefer to package Touhy and maybe next year's third rounder and say to the Swans take it or leave it. Another thing you forget to factor in is how much salary cap space are they going to take up? As our younger players start to improve they are going to want to be paid accordingly the last thing we can afford to do is risk losing them because we can't stick to the cap.

The main fear I have is, if we top up with these players we will finish mid range next year or two. That means a draft pick outside top 10 and a second rounder outside top 25. Which makes it harder to bring in elite young talent. We have too many deficiencies in the side with depth and elite talent and those pick ranges make it hard to recover from those deficiencies.

Many people look at the Hawks and say well they bring in players. Yeah that's because they're in the position to do that. Let's not forget these facts though:

In 2001 Hawks had picks #1, #16, #20, #32 and #36. Now only Hodge and Mitchell were the elites Hodge at #1 obviously and they got lucky with Mitchell having seen him develop at Box Hill and knew not too many other clubs would've been interested in him early on. They also got Ladson at #16 and Campbell Brown with #32.

2004 they had #2, #5 and #7. Got Roughead, Franklin and Lewis.
2005 they had #3, #6 and #14. Picked another flag player in Ellis and dud Dowler and got Birchall with #14
2006 they had #6 and #24. They picked another dud Thorp and got Renouf with #24.
2007 they had #12 and got Rioli.

*Bolded players played in a flag or more...

Now from 2001 to 2007 drafts, these are the players they traded in:

2002: Peter Everitt for #6 + #22 and Kingsley Hunter for #35
2003: Trent Croad for #10, Beaumont for Loats, Danny Jacobs for Veale
2004: Beau Nixon and pick#7 for pick#10 and #37

Now, let me ask you: Where are the elite players the Hawks brought in? From the draft (mainly top 10 picks) or from trading in? 11 Players from the early part of the drafts that played in their premiership sides and only one from trades. Even Stuart Dew was taken in the draft at #45 in 2007 and Guerra was taken in the pre season draft and Gilham was also taken in the rookie draft.

Osbourne, Williams, Campbell, Sewell, Bateman all drafted.

So for their 2008 flag, Trent Croad was the only player they traded in. They were patient. They hung onto their picks. Once they established a strong core of young talented players THEN they started trading in and they were/are a place of destination due to their success. Now they're in fact in the best position to pick up Mitchell and they'll gladly give up their first rounder which is more than what we should be trying to offer.

That's the position I want us to be in. It might take a while, but it will be well worth it.

I love youse.

 

[Dramoth]

Ok, here goes a massive post:

Judging by your previous posts and your view on this one it seems that you aren't very patient. Unfortunately, patience is going to be required. You told me a couple of weeks ago that finals isn't out of the question for us next year. Do you honestly still hold that view after seeing how poorly we perform in the midfield?

We have drafted players last year that will take years to reach their potential. Yes I do think it's a VERY stupid move to go giving up pick #4 for midfielders like Prestia and Mitchell or a full back like Marchbank. Reason being is that Prestia will (imo) cost us more than just pick#4. GC won't do a straight swap and if his injury woes continue then it will be a bust, particularly if that player that we would likely have taken at Pick #4 ends up being an outright star. Marchbank and Mitchell aren't worth pick#4 either. Let's not forget who Mitchell has around him in the Swans midfield. Will he have the same impact in ours? It's doubtful. Marchbank also injury prone and hasn't really proven himself yet either to be honest.

I would prefer to build our own strong midfield group from smart draft choices and by being willing enough to take risks to obtain more high draft picks. I've said many times recently that I think the way forward for us is to obtain two top 10 picks this year and next, totaling to 4 top 10 picks over the next 2 drafts. To get those picks we need to be bold during trade week. We need to take a realistic look at our list, realise that we have a severe lack of elite talent and depth that will take years to resolve. Then we need to look at the players that most likely won't be around or playing at their best due to their age and try and maximise their value now. Casboult is one of them. Trade Casboult for a second rounder. Use that second rounder and our two third round picks to build points that exceed GC's Melbourne pick. That way we turn Casboult and two third rounders into a high draft pick that (with smart recruiting and luck) will become an elite player for us. Brisbane could be a great suitor for Cas. They already have an additional second round pick and they could really use a stronger body to help Schache and Hipwood out. They may even back themselves to fix Casboult's kicking woes. GC would definitely be interested in Sheer. If we can get a second rounder at pick #24 and add the points to pick #40 and #49, then that would overtake the points of pick#9. So Brisbane will feel like they win, GC would feel like they win and we would also feel like we win.

Then we take 2 of the best mids from this year's draft. If we want to be even bolder, we could offer Gibbs to GWS for another top 10 pick. Gibbs clearly can't handle being the #1 mid. With the support of the GWS mids he will thrive and possibly finish his career with a flag or two. At Carlton he most likely (imo) won't have that opportunity.

If we go into this year's draft with three top 10 picks we can pick a core group of mids that will grow together and have Cripps leading the way in the future.

Then in 2017 draft, we use our first pick (which will most likely be another top 10 pick) and we try and get an additional top 10 pick by offering up 2018 first rounder and a player.

4-5 top 10 picks in the next two drafts to add to our 3 top ten picks from last year will help us build a core group of young talented players. When they start to thrive, THEN we start thinking about adding in established players to fill the gaps.

You say adding premium best 22 talent from sides above us on the ladder? Where's GC buddy? They're actually below us in case you weren't aware. Is Marchbank best 22 in GWS? Well he's been injury prone and never really proven himself to be best 22 so where is this evidence that he's premium best 22 talent? Mitchell's the only one but as I said he already has enormous support from the other mids in the Swans outfit, the going will be a lot tougher at Carlton. I'd prefer to package Touhy and maybe next year's third rounder and say to the Swans take it or leave it. Another thing you forget to factor in is how much salary cap space are they going to take up? As our younger players start to improve they are going to want to be paid accordingly the last thing we can afford to do is risk losing them because we can't stick to the cap.

The main fear I have is, if we top up with these players we will finish mid range next year or two. That means a draft pick outside top 10 and a second rounder outside top 25. Which makes it harder to bring in elite young talent. We have too many deficiencies in the side with depth and elite talent and those pick ranges make it hard to recover from those deficiencies.

Many people look at the Hawks and say well they bring in players. Yeah that's because they're in the position to do that. Let's not forget these facts though:

In 2001 Hawks had picks #1, #16, #20, #32 and #36. Now only Hodge and Mitchell were the elites Hodge at #1 obviously and they got lucky with Mitchell having seen him develop at Box Hill and knew not too many other clubs would've been interested in him early on. They also got Ladson at #16 and Campbell Brown with #32.

2004 they had #2, #5 and #7. Got Roughead, Franklin and Lewis.
2005 they had #3, #6 and #14. Picked another flag player in Ellis and dud Dowler and got Birchall with #14
2006 they had #6 and #24. They picked another dud Thorp and got Renouf with #24.
2007 they had #12 and got Rioli.

*Bolded players played in a flag or more...

Now from 2001 to 2007 drafts, these are the players they traded in:

2002: Peter Everitt for #6 + #22 and Kingsley Hunter for #35
2003: Trent Croad for #10, Beaumont for Loats, Danny Jacobs for Veale
2004: Beau Nixon and pick#7 for pick#10 and #37

Now, let me ask you: Where are the elite players the Hawks brought in? From the draft (mainly top 10 picks) or from trading in? 11 Players from the early part of the drafts that played in their premiership sides and only one from trades. Even Stuart Dew was taken in the draft at #45 in 2007 and Guerra was taken in the pre season draft and Gilham was also taken in the rookie draft.

Osbourne, Williams, Campbell, Sewell, Bateman all drafted.

So for their 2008 flag, Trent Croad was the only player they traded in. They were patient. They hung onto their picks. Once they established a strong core of young talented players THEN they started trading in and they were/are a place of destination due to their success. Now they're in fact in the best position to pick up Mitchell and they'll gladly give up their first rounder which is more than what we should be trying to offer.

That's the position I want us to be in. It might take a while, but it will be well worth it.

Ok... thats all cool... but we don't even have a reasonable core of backup talent... which is what our trading is all about.

 

[Smalls0304]

People do realise we can trade for a 1st round pick and offer that? It doesn't have to be our 2nd? Next years 1st and this years 2nd for the GWS3 and get a first round pick back for example and offer that? Its really not complicated. Pls no more '2nd and Everitt' offers, they are never ever accepting that

 

[Smalls0304]

While i agree somewhat the we have to keep smashing the draft, there has never been a case with a side like GWS being so stacked with talent and genuinely promising kids wanting to leave. Teams in earlier years only option was to use the draft to develop good lists, we have a case here where there are very good kids(High Draft Picks) wanting to return to Melbourne and we have a good chance to get them. I agree on looking for trades for Cas & Touhy but not exploring a deal of Marchbank & Tomlinson is very silly. Both are young, best 22 talent, that already have years of development in them. I could take Marchbank, Tomlinson & Stewart over Oliver, Pickett, Toumpas, Morabito, Gaff, Hoskin-Elliot which are 6 of the past 7 #4 selections. I would prefer we use our 2017 1st in the deal btw.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Ok, here goes a massive post:

Judging by your previous posts and your view on this one it seems that you aren't very patient. Unfortunately, patience is going to be required. You told me a couple of weeks ago that finals isn't out of the question for us next year. Do you honestly still hold that view after seeing how poorly we perform in the midfield?

Yes, I do still hold that view, we will play finals next season.

We have drafted players last year that will take years to reach their potential. Yes I do think it's a VERY stupid move to go giving up pick #4 for midfielders like Prestia and Mitchell or a full back like Marchbank. Reason being is that Prestia will (imo) cost us more than just pick#4. GC won't do a straight swap and if his injury woes continue then it will be a bust, particularly if that player that we would likely have taken at Pick #4 ends up being an outright star. Marchbank and Mitchell aren't worth pick#4 either. Let's not forget who Mitchell has around him in the Swans midfield. Will he have the same impact in ours? It's doubtful. Marchbank also injury prone and hasn't really proven himself yet either to be honest.

The poster you referenced had a clearly laid out vision of how the trading would go, no where did it include giving up pick #4 or more for Prestia. No body has suggested that, in fact, no experienced AFL trade observer would suggest such a thing. Prestia is originally a what? Pick #9, he's currently out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, has had other injuries in the past and is, most importantly, out of contract. No one will be giving pick #4 for Prestia, it will be a much lower deal. I'd suggest somewhere in the #12-20 range or equivalent players/points. Again, no one has suggested Marchbank is worth pick #4, and we won't be giving up pick #4 for him, the Carlton football club has categorically stated we will not be trading out of the first round this year. No matter who we get trade wise, we'll still have at least one pick in the first round. Mitchell, yes "let's not forgwt the midfield he has around him" I agree with that. Because you seem to think Mitchell is some outside midfielder who gets all his disposals off the hard work of others, oh wait, he's a contested bast, has a good tank and gives a scrap. Mitchell is in no way "protected" by the other midfielders. He's not the type of player you tag because his outside work isn't particularly damaging and you can't stop his inside work. He'd be "protected" at Carlton as well as other clubs would always see Cripps, Murphy or Gibbs as more damaging. Will he have the same impact here? You bet he would, he may even have more of an impact.

I would prefer to build our own strong midfield group from smart draft choices and by being willing enough to take risks to obtain more high draft picks. I've said many times recently that I think the way forward for us is to obtain two top 10 picks this year and next, totaling to 4 top 10 picks over the next 2 drafts. To get those picks we need to be bold during trade week. We need to take a realistic look at our list, realise that we have a severe lack of elite talent and depth that will take years to resolve. Then we need to look at the players that most likely won't be around or playing at their best due to their age and try and maximise their value now. Casboult is one of them. Trade Casboult for a second rounder. Use that second rounder and our two third round picks to build points that exceed GC's Melbourne pick. That way we turn Casboult and two third rounders into a high draft pick that (with smart recruiting and luck) will become an elite player for us. Brisbane could be a great suitor for Cas. They already have an additional second round pick and they could really use a stronger body to help Schache and Hipwood out. They may even back themselves to fix Casboult's kicking woes. GC would definitely be interested in Sheer. If we can get a second rounder at pick #24 and add the points to pick #40 and #49, then that would overtake the points of pick#9. So Brisbane will feel like they win, GC would feel like they win and we would also feel like we win.

I'm all for your trading older experienced players and later picks for higher picks. I agree with that. How would you propose to have a functioning forward line without Casboult is another question. As for the building out of the draft. No body disagrees with you here. I agree with that completely. I've constantly said any trades we should do should be based around trading our 2017 first pick, as we will go up the ladder (As I said above) and we can always trade back into the first round by moving on kids or other mature age players and using our second round pick next year. As for two top 10 picks, well this year would have to be the worst year to do that. Outside of the top 3-5 players it's basically even down to about the twentieth kid. This will be one of those years where pick #16 turns out better than pick #6 etc etc. Two picks in the top 10 is probably worth less this year than any other year. We should aim for one pick in the top four or multiple picks in the #10-20 range.

Then we take 2 of the best mids from this year's draft. If we want to be even bolder, we could offer Gibbs to GWS for another top 10 pick. Gibbs clearly can't handle being the #1 mid. With the support of the GWS mids he will thrive and possibly finish his career with a flag or two. At Carlton he most likely (imo) won't have that opportunity.

Lol i'm not going to respond to people who suggest trading Gibbs, they obviously don't know anything about football.

If we go into this year's draft with three top 10 picks we can pick a core group of mids that will grow together and have Cripps leading the way in the future.

Then in 2017 draft, we use our first pick (which will most likely be another top 10 pick) and we try and get an additional top 10 pick by offering up 2018 first rounder and a player.

4-5 top 10 picks in the next two drafts to add to our 3 top ten picks from last year will help us build a core group of young talented players. When they start to thrive, THEN we start thinking about adding in established players to fill the gaps.

All well and good, it's certainly one way we could go down, but I think there are better ways.

You say adding premium best 22 talent from sides above us on the ladder? Where's GC buddy? They're actually below us in case you weren't aware. Is Marchbank best 22 in GWS? Well he's been injury prone and never really proven himself to be best 22 so where is this evidence that he's premium best 22 talent? Mitchell's the only one but as I said he already has enormous support from the other mids in the Swans outfit, the going will be a lot tougher at Carlton. I'd prefer to package Touhy and maybe next year's third rounder and say to the Swans take it or leave it. Another thing you forget to factor in is how much salary cap space are they going to take up? As our younger players start to improve they are going to want to be paid accordingly the last thing we can afford to do is risk losing them because we can't stick to the cap.

Prestia was one of the top 20 midfielders in the game when GC have been well and truly above us on the ladder. They've fallen down the ladder largely due to players like O'Meara, Swallow, Prestia etc being injured for lengths of time. Marchbank was best 22 at the start of the season, played very well and only fell out due to small niggling injuries. Kid is talented. And Mitchell, as you said, is clearlhy best 22 at the Swans.

The main fear I have is, if we top up with these players we will finish mid range next year or two. That means a draft pick outside top 10 and a second rounder outside top 25. Which makes it harder to bring in elite young talent. We have too many deficiencies in the side with depth and elite talent and those pick ranges make it hard to recover from those deficiencies.

Cripps was taken at pick #13 or so, plenty of great footballers have been taken at late first round positions. And if we're really desperate for a top pick. Our first and second can be easily packaged up to an Academy club for their first for points reasons.

Many people look at the Hawks and say well they bring in players. Yeah that's because they're in the position to do that. Let's not forget these facts though:

In 2001 Hawks had picks #1, #16, #20, #32 and #36. Now only Hodge and Mitchell were the elites Hodge at #1 obviously and they got lucky with Mitchell having seen him develop at Box Hill and knew not too many other clubs would've been interested in him early on. They also got Ladson at #16 and Campbell Brown with #32.

2004 they had #2, #5 and #7. Got Roughead, Franklin and Lewis.
2005 they had #3, #6 and #14. Picked another flag player in Ellis and dud Dowler and got Birchall with #14
2006 they had #6 and #24. They picked another dud Thorp and got Renouf with #24.
2007 they had #12 and got Rioli.

*Bolded players played in a flag or more...

Now from 2001 to 2007 drafts, these are the players they traded in:

2002: Peter Everitt for #6 + #22 and Kingsley Hunter for #35
2003: Trent Croad for #10, Beaumont for Loats, Danny Jacobs for Veale
2004: Beau Nixon and pick#7 for pick#10 and #37

Now, let me ask you: Where are the elite players the Hawks brought in? From the draft (mainly top 10 picks) or from trading in? 11 Players from the early part of the drafts that played in their premiership sides and only one from trades. Even Stuart Dew was taken in the draft at #45 in 2007 and Guerra was taken in the pre season draft and Gilham was also taken in the rookie draft.

Osbourne, Williams, Campbell, Sewell, Bateman all drafted.

So for their 2008 flag, Trent Croad was the only player they traded in. They were patient. They hung onto their picks. Once they established a strong core of young talented players THEN they started trading in and they were/are a place of destination due to their success. Now they're in fact in the best position to pick up Mitchell and they'll gladly give up their first rounder which is more than what we should be trying to offer.

That's the position I want us to be in. It might take a while, but it will be well worth it.

As for the Hawks period, they didn't exist in a period where half the top end talent was cornered away at an expansion club. I'm not going to dive too far into that whole conundrum, as it's a bit superflous, you could talk about any club and have different results from their trading. We just need to trust SOS and the team to build a quality list.

Now let's look at the Carlton team; we already have the following elite talent on the list. Bolded being well and truly proven. I know we have more kids than this in total, but I think these are the kids who are elite or could be best 22 in a Carlton finals side.

2011 Draft: Sumner?? (10) Docherty (12) Kerridge?? (27)
2012 Draft: Plowman (3) Jaksch?? (12) Graham?? (54)
2013 Draft: Cripps (13) Byrne (Cat B Rookie)
2014 Draft: Boekhurst?? (19) Viojo-Rainbow?? (28)
2015 Draft: Weitering (1) McKay?? (10) Curnow (12) Cuningham?? (23) Silvagni?? (53)

I personally think, adding another young, maturer player into the mix who will have an immediate impact is not a bad thing. And I don't believe drafting and trading in players are mutually exclusive. Last year we managed to trade 4 kids inside the top 25 and bring in elite talent via trade. I think we can add elite young talent via trade and the draft this off season.

Do I think we can get Prestia and Mitchell in probably not. But I think we can well and truly secure; Prestia/Mitchell, Pick #4, and a few kids from GWS, maybe Marchbank if we can get the deal right. At the cost of say; Casboult, Touhy, 2017 First and some Seconds/Thirds.

Aquire;

• (GWS 3/4, Marchbank, Tomlinson, Steele/Ahern/WHE, Stewart) = 2017 First Round & Carlton 2016 3rd Round
• Option 1 (Mitchell) = #14 and Touhy. Trade Casboult to Brisbane/Fremantle for pick #20/21 (before FA picks), 3rd Rounder might be necessary to add along here. Trade Pick #20 and Carlton 2nd Round Pick to GWS for GWS's 1st, Roughly #14. Trade #14 and Touhy to Sydney for Mitchell.
  
• Option 1(a) (GC 3rd) = Trade Everitt to GC for their 3rd Round Pick, or higher if they have one.
  
• Option 2 (Prestia) = #14 and Everitt. Trade Casboult to Brisbane/Fremantle for pick #20/21 (before FA picks), 3rd Rounder might be necessary to add along here. Trade Pick #20 and Carlton 2nd Round Pick to GWS for GWS's 1st, Roughly #14. Trade #14 and Everitt to Gold Coast for Prestia.
• Option 2(a) (Syd 2nd) = Trade Touhy to Sydney for their 2nd Round Pick

GAIN: Marchbank, Tomlinson, Steele, Stewart, Mitchell/Prestia and GC 3rd/Syd 2nd
LOSE: 2017 1st Rounder, 2016 2nd Rounder, 3rd Rounder, Bulldogs 3rd Rounder, Casboult, Everitt and Touhy
RETAIN: 2016 1st Rounder

The elite youth would look like so;

2010 Draft: Prestia (9)
2011 Draft: Tomlinson?? (9) Sumner?? (10) Docherty (12) Mitchell (21) Kerridge?? (27)
2012 Draft: Plowman (3) Jaksch?? (12) Stewart?? (27) Graham?? (54)
2013 Draft: Cripps (13) Byrne (Cat B Rookie)
2014 Draft: Marchbank (6) Boekhurst?? (19) Steele (24) Viojo-Rainbow?? (28)
2015 Draft: Weitering (1) McKay?? (10) Curnow (12) Cuningham?? (23) Silvagni?? (53)
2016 Draft: Elite Mid (4) Sydney 2nd, Rookies/Late Picks such as Kerbatieh and Bradley

I prefer Mitchell over Prestia for Mitchells durability, although Prestia is the player with more strings to his bow. Let's for arguments sake, say Will Brodie is pick #4 that we draft this year, because I absolutely love the look of Brodie, although he'll probably go top 2.

FB: Byrne Weitering Marchbank
HB: Docherty Plowman Viojo-Rainbow
R: xxxx Cripps Brodie
C: Boekhurst Mitchell Cuningham
HF: Curnow Stewart Tomlinson
FF: Silvagni McKay Sumner
Int: Steele, Jaksch, Kerridge, Graham

I don't know about others, but I think that's a pretty bloody stellar looking line up.
Then we trade back into the 2017 First round and add another capable kid there, and focus on two things from 2017 onwards, nabbing big Free Agents and hitting our first rounders right.

Looking at the age profile, if we do what I propose, we'll bunch up a lot of our elite kids in the 2011-2015 Draft bracket, a tight bunching that will mean most will peak together and that will be the key to success. From then on we just keep adding kids into an already tight and strong youth core and the snowball effect happens. We go onto win three premierships in a row etc etc.

 

[Malifice]

People do realise we can trade for a 1st round pick and offer that? It doesn't have to be our 2nd? Next years 1st and this years 2nd for the GWS3 and get a first round pick back for example and offer that? Its really not complicated. Pls no more '2nd and Everitt' offers, they are never ever accepting that

We hand over 4 + 22 + 40 + Next years 2nd rounder (4000 points) to GWS

We grab the GWS 4, and picks 9 and 14 (2500 points; rates the GWS at pick 8 in value) in return. We trade Touhy to Sydney for 16. We send Levi(?) and the Dogs 3rd to the Dees(?) for (low-mid 2nd round pick). Se send Sydneys 1st and that 2nd to GCS for Prestia.

Hit the draft with 9 and 14. Add Tomlinson, Marchbank, Steele, Prestia. Upgrade Byrne with our 4th rounder.

5 x 1st round picks for the price of 1.

 

[Malifice]

While i agree somewhat the we have to keep smashing the draft, there has never been a case with a side like GWS being so stacked with talent and genuinely promising kids wanting to leave.

Not only is there a plethora of homesick talented kids to the North there is also the unprecedented ability to trade a bunch of late picks for early ones thanks to the points system and the academies.

Its actually a really good time to rebuild. We really need to bite the bullet with a few of the older crew if we're gonna do it right though.

Not all of them. Dont wanna go full Melbourne. But even getting 2nd round picks for players lets us bundle them with other 2nd rounders for 1st rounders.

If theyre no use to us in 2020-2025, trade em.

 

[Smalls0304]

We hand over 4 + 22 + 40 + Next years 2nd rounder (4000 points) to GWS

We grab the GWS 4, and picks 9 and 14 (2500 points; rates the GWS at pick 8 in value) in return. We trade Touhy to Sydney for 16. We send Levi(?) and the Dogs 3rd to the Dees(?) for (low-mid 2nd round pick). Se send Sydneys 1st and that 2nd to GCS for Prestia.

Hit the draft with 9 and 14. Add Tomlinson, Marchbank, Steele, Prestia. Upgrade Byrne with our 4th rounder.

5 x 1st round picks for the price of 1.

Could also add 9 to the sydney deal to try and snag Mitchell and still have a remaining 1st. Add 2 A-Grade mids and draft another at 14.

 

[Jabba73]

Is it illegal for clubs to make deals that include clauses that preclude them from bidding on Academy players?

If we have pick 4, can we make a deal with GWS and Swans to bundle picks in late rounds for their first round pick, with the understanding that we would not then use pick 4 to force them to pay more for their elite free draftees? This of course relies on where their Academy players are rated in the draft.

I would not use this as a blackmail type tactic, it is only to aadd value to the offer if there are genuine guns we are interested in at the Academies.

 

[Gambelic]

..that other clubs aren’t into as well?

Luck of the draw.


You know, maybe Kreuzer is the guy.

To stand under it for 2 years.

But we need to accept he won’t kick many goals.

Or take any marks