Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[teagueyubeauty]

Is it illegal for clubs to make deals that include clauses that preclude them from bidding on Academy players?

If we have pick 4, can we make a deal with GWS and Swans to bundle picks in late rounds for their first round pick, with the understanding that we would not then use pick 4 to force them to pay more for their elite free draftees? This of course relies on where their Academy players are rated in the draft.

I would not use this as a blackmail type tactic, it is only to aadd value to the offer if there are genuine guns we are interested in at the Academies.

Very illegal, it's called draft tampering.

You'd be an extremely naive character if you didn't think it would happen though!!

 

[Soapy V]

All I can add is that I'm very bloody excited about trade and draft period this year, after SOSs effort last year. This is going to be a very exciting time for us all!!

exactly. be nice to bolts out the front of visy park introducing 3-4 gws players, 5-6 talented young draftees, a couple of rookies and maybe 1-2 trades/free agents. add them to the kids we have and it will look very exciting

 

[Soapy V]

FB: Byrne Weitering Marchbank
HB: Docherty Plowman Viojo-Rainbow
R: xxxx Cripps Brodie
C: Boekhurst Mitchell Cuningham
HF: Curnow Stewart Tomlinson
FF: Silvagni McKay Sumner
Int: Steele, Jaksch, Kerridge, Graham

i like the theory and what you have put together. great work.

wouldn't it be great to see a running classy left footer like dvr off the hbf. make a big difference. issue is i cant see him making it. hope im wrong.

mitchell wont happen. my feel is simpson will play for another 2 years minimum. age for him is irrelevant and what a great example to others. gibbs & murphy would be in my side. will do better with better players around them.

what still stands out for me is ball use and lack of run through the midfield. still a massive issue. side lacks some speed but that's okay if you use the ball well but we dont. i have no doubt phillips will be our ruckman. has it all its now just time. i hope gorringe becomes the player to back up his talent. as a fwd/ruck he would be great. a bit like stanley or blicavs.

4-5 more young kids in the draft would be good. i reckon g-mac will be a very good full back.

above would be a big step forward but still a bit to do.

my side:

docherty g-mac plowman
byrne marchbank simpson

phillips charlie murphy
boekhurst cripps cuningham

gibbs mckay tomlinson
sumner weitering silvagni

stewart gorringe kerridge then midfield draft picks

 

[Funk]

Tomlinson would have checked out 12 months ago I reckon. GWS made a mistake by not accepting the deal we put to them last year.

And I reckon GWS are only giving him a game when they have no other options - and continue to play him out of position.

 

[Funk]

Rocket has told GC he needs a scapegoat and is willing to pay overs for his favourite of all time.

Jabba GC made an offer for Everitt during tail end of last years trading period.

Carlton were open to the idea - Everitt knocked it back.

 

[Sector 7G]

docherty g-mac plowman
byrne marchbank simpson

phillips charlie murphy
boekhurst cripps cuningham

gibbs mckay tomlinson
sumner stewart silvagni

gorringe kerridge then midfield draft picks

Not confident on Weitering making it?

 

[HBF]

And I reckon GWS are only giving him a game when they have no other options - and continue to play him out of position.

Yeah they need to play him up the ground. Very unlikely he'll develop into KPF.

 

[LanceRomance]

Jabba GC made an offer for Everitt during tail end of last years trading period.

Carlton were open to the idea - Everitt knocked it back.

Just means we would have taken weideman instead of McKay

 

[LanceRomance]

Yeah they need to play him up the ground. Very unlikely he'll develop into KPF.

Will likely be a small crumbing forward in TheSheik s line up

 

[HBF]

Will likely be a small crumbing forward in TheSheik s line up

I like Stengle from SA. We really could do with a good small forward that can play closer to goal.

 

[ray8182]

I like Stengle from SA. We really could do with a good small forward that can play closer to goal.

I liked the look of Stengle as well. Looked to have a lot of poise and skill. The way he moved stood out to me. Nice looking footballer. Late second round, early 3rd might be a good option.


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[LanceRomance]

I like Stengle from SA. We really could do with a good small forward that can play closer to goal.

Agreed. we have an eddie betts sized hole we are struggling to fill.

 

[BluesRule]

While i agree somewhat the we have to keep smashing the draft, there has never been a case with a side like GWS being so stacked with talent and genuinely promising kids wanting to leave. Teams in earlier years only option was to use the draft to develop good lists, we have a case here where there are very good kids(High Draft Picks) wanting to return to Melbourne and we have a good chance to get them. I agree on looking for trades for Cas & Touhy but not exploring a deal of Marchbank & Tomlinson is very silly. Both are young, best 22 talent, that already have years of development in them. I could take Marchbank, Tomlinson & Stewart over Oliver, Pickett, Toumpas, Morabito, Gaff, Hoskin-Elliot which are 6 of the past 7 #4 selections. I would prefer we use our 2017 1st in the deal btw.

I do not know how we do the deals but we must keep our 2017 first round draft pick.
Maybe we swap our 2017 first round with GWS, but we have to stay in the first round for the full 3 years of our 66 game rebuild

 

[Matty411]

I thought Cameron played a straight bat to questions about Marchbank and Tomlinson. Said Marchbank was injured, may need surgery, see what happens. Tomlinson was playing and didn't really want to talk draft strategy.

I don't think that means they have checked out but may suggest that GWS are prepared for them to leave.

Was more a reading between the lines case... but talk is right - Tomlinson, MBank and Stewart all obvs give a shit about their next move (at GWS or otherwise) given their form. But gut feel is AT would be disillusioned with his role in the GWS side going forward so would have one foot out. The fact he's playing it this way (not saying anything and remaining positive) shows his professionalism.

 

[Soapy V]

Not confident on Weitering making it?

whoops!!!

yeh he's no good. was actually looking for him as a key forward

 

[ray8182]

Agreed. we have an eddie betts sized hole we are struggling to fill.

They took gallucci last draft with a rookie selection so l wonder if they will be willing to spend a bit more capital on a small forward this year, especially with his injury.

Shia Bolton, Tyson Stengle are good options. With Stengles size he may last past the third round. They could also look at Zac fisher, who might be more of a midfielder but could be used as a smart half forward at afl level.

It may not be priority in the second year of the rebuild. I haven't read anything about us looking at small forwards yet.


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[The Old Dark Navy's]

Was more a reading between the lines case... but talk is right - Tomlinson, MBank and Stewart all obvs give a shit about their next move (at GWS or otherwise) given their form. But gut feel is AT would be disillusioned with his role in the GWS side going forward so would have one foot out. The fact he's playing it this way (not saying anything and remaining positive) shows his professionalism.

Sounds right. I was adding context so people don't assume they are doing a Henderson and Yarran as far as not giving their all, as one person did.

 

[BluesRule]

Serious lack of love for Ed Curnow here. Ed reminds me of Carrots in that he keeps making himself a better player. Not blessed with elite skills, but great work effort and every year he gets a bit better. Would keep him in my list of best 22 for the next 5 years.

 

[mix of stars]

Yes, I do still hold that view, we will play finals next season.



The poster you referenced had a clearly laid out vision of how the trading would go, no where did it include giving up pick #4 or more for Prestia. No body has suggested that, in fact, no experienced AFL trade observer would suggest such a thing. Prestia is originally a what? Pick #9, he's currently out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, has had other injuries in the past and is, most importantly, out of contract. No one will be giving pick #4 for Prestia, it will be a much lower deal. I'd suggest somewhere in the #12-20 range or equivalent players/points. Again, no one has suggested Marchbank is worth pick #4, and we won't be giving up pick #4 for him, the Carlton football club has categorically stated we will not be trading out of the first round this year. No matter who we get trade wise, we'll still have at least one pick in the first round. Mitchell, yes "let's not forgwt the midfield he has around him" I agree with that. Because you seem to think Mitchell is some outside midfielder who gets all his disposals off the hard work of others, oh wait, he's a contested bast, has a good tank and gives a scrap. Mitchell is in no way "protected" by the other midfielders. He's not the type of player you tag because his outside work isn't particularly damaging and you can't stop his inside work. He'd be "protected" at Carlton as well as other clubs would always see Cripps, Murphy or Gibbs as more damaging. Will he have the same impact here? You bet he would, he may even have more of an impact.



I'm all for your trading older experienced players and later picks for higher picks. I agree with that. How would you propose to have a functioning forward line without Casboult is another question. As for the building out of the draft. No body disagrees with you here. I agree with that completely. I've constantly said any trades we should do should be based around trading our 2017 first pick, as we will go up the ladder (As I said above) and we can always trade back into the first round by moving on kids or other mature age players and using our second round pick next year. As for two top 10 picks, well this year would have to be the worst year to do that. Outside of the top 3-5 players it's basically even down to about the twentieth kid. This will be one of those years where pick #16 turns out better than pick #6 etc etc. Two picks in the top 10 is probably worth less this year than any other year. We should aim for one pick in the top four or multiple picks in the #10-20 range.



Lol i'm not going to respond to people who suggest trading Gibbs, they obviously don't know anything about football.



All well and good, it's certainly one way we could go down, but I think there are better ways.



Prestia was one of the top 20 midfielders in the game when GC have been well and truly above us on the ladder. They've fallen down the ladder largely due to players like O'Meara, Swallow, Prestia etc being injured for lengths of time. Marchbank was best 22 at the start of the season, played very well and only fell out due to small niggling injuries. Kid is talented. And Mitchell, as you said, is clearlhy best 22 at the Swans.



Cripps was taken at pick #13 or so, plenty of great footballers have been taken at late first round positions. And if we're really desperate for a top pick. Our first and second can be easily packaged up to an Academy club for their first for points reasons.



As for the Hawks period, they didn't exist in a period where half the top end talent was cornered away at an expansion club. I'm not going to dive too far into that whole conundrum, as it's a bit superflous, you could talk about any club and have different results from their trading. We just need to trust SOS and the team to build a quality list.

Now let's look at the Carlton team; we already have the following elite talent on the list. Bolded being well and truly proven. I know we have more kids than this in total, but I think these are the kids who are elite or could be best 22 in a Carlton finals side.

2011 Draft: Sumner?? (10) Docherty (12) Kerridge?? (27)
2012 Draft: Plowman (3) Jaksch?? (12) Graham?? (54)
2013 Draft: Cripps (13) Byrne (Cat B Rookie)
2014 Draft: Boekhurst?? (19) Viojo-Rainbow?? (28)
2015 Draft: Weitering (1) McKay?? (10) Curnow (12) Cuningham?? (23) Silvagni?? (53)

I personally think, adding another young, maturer player into the mix who will have an immediate impact is not a bad thing. And I don't believe drafting and trading in players are mutually exclusive. Last year we managed to trade 4 kids inside the top 25 and bring in elite talent via trade. I think we can add elite young talent via trade and the draft this off season.

Do I think we can get Prestia and Mitchell in probably not. But I think we can well and truly secure; Prestia/Mitchell, Pick #4, and a few kids from GWS, maybe Marchbank if we can get the deal right. At the cost of say; Casboult, Touhy, 2017 First and some Seconds/Thirds.

Aquire;

• (GWS 3/4, Marchbank, Tomlinson, Steele/Ahern/WHE, Stewart) = 2017 First Round & Carlton 2016 3rd Round
• Option 1 (Mitchell) = #14 and Touhy. Trade Casboult to Brisbane/Fremantle for pick #20/21 (before FA picks), 3rd Rounder might be necessary to add along here. Trade Pick #20 and Carlton 2nd Round Pick to GWS for GWS's 1st, Roughly #14. Trade #14 and Touhy to Sydney for Mitchell.
  
• Option 1(a) (GC 3rd) = Trade Everitt to GC for their 3rd Round Pick, or higher if they have one.
  
• Option 2 (Prestia) = #14 and Everitt. Trade Casboult to Brisbane/Fremantle for pick #20/21 (before FA picks), 3rd Rounder might be necessary to add along here. Trade Pick #20 and Carlton 2nd Round Pick to GWS for GWS's 1st, Roughly #14. Trade #14 and Everitt to Gold Coast for Prestia.
• Option 2(a) (Syd 2nd) = Trade Touhy to Sydney for their 2nd Round Pick

GAIN: Marchbank, Tomlinson, Steele, Stewart, Mitchell/Prestia and GC 3rd/Syd 2nd
LOSE: 2017 1st Rounder, 2016 2nd Rounder, 3rd Rounder, Bulldogs 3rd Rounder, Casboult, Everitt and Touhy
RETAIN: 2016 1st Rounder

The elite youth would look like so;

2010 Draft: Prestia (9)
2011 Draft: Tomlinson?? (9) Sumner?? (10) Docherty (12) Mitchell (21) Kerridge?? (27)
2012 Draft: Plowman (3) Jaksch?? (12) Stewart?? (27) Graham?? (54)
2013 Draft: Cripps (13) Byrne (Cat B Rookie)
2014 Draft: Marchbank (6) Boekhurst?? (19) Steele (24) Viojo-Rainbow?? (28)
2015 Draft: Weitering (1) McKay?? (10) Curnow (12) Cuningham?? (23) Silvagni?? (53)
2016 Draft: Elite Mid (4) Sydney 2nd, Rookies/Late Picks such as Kerbatieh and Bradley

I prefer Mitchell over Prestia for Mitchells durability, although Prestia is the player with more strings to his bow. Let's for arguments sake, say Will Brodie is pick #4 that we draft this year, because I absolutely love the look of Brodie, although he'll probably go top 2.

FB: Byrne Weitering Marchbank
HB: Docherty Plowman Viojo-Rainbow
R: xxxx Cripps Brodie
C: Boekhurst Mitchell Cuningham
HF: Curnow Stewart Tomlinson
FF: Silvagni McKay Sumner
Int: Steele, Jaksch, Kerridge, Graham

I don't know about others, but I think that's a pretty bloody stellar looking line up.
Then we trade back into the 2017 First round and add another capable kid there, and focus on two things from 2017 onwards, nabbing big Free Agents and hitting our first rounders right.

Looking at the age profile, if we do what I propose, we'll bunch up a lot of our elite kids in the 2011-2015 Draft bracket, a tight bunching that will mean most will peak together and that will be the key to success. From then on we just keep adding kids into an already tight and strong youth core and the snowball effect happens. We go onto win three premierships in a row etc etc.

Amazing Line up. This excites me. whats bradley like ???
i think we will need to pick Kerbatieh in the late draft and not await until the rookie if we want to secure the kid there will be numerous clubs looking at him going on form and ex factor. good years to come !!

 

[BluesRule]

I think we have a few obvious list gaps.

1. We need a quality inside mid asap - must trade one or both of Prestia/Mitchell or draft Brodie.
2. Would like another quality KPF - Ben coming in two years, McKay developing, Casboult etc. not getting it done. Tomlinson and Stewart make sense. Kerr looks an option in the draft (#15-40). I think Vickery will not add to best 22 and burns a list place/$ that we could better use for Mitchell/Prestia.
3. Need a full back monster to neuter the tall KPF's - Daniher, Wright, Tex, Mason Cox, Lynch, Patton, Boyd, etc. A Jamo replacement. We have Rowe for two years, then JGM maybe? Add Marchbank if we can afford him as he goes straight into best 22, but is he tall enough?
4. Need midfielders that can kick goals when going forward. We have Gibbs, and I think Charlie and SOS will be able to move into midfield in time, but would like a Venables, SPS, McCluggage, Gallucci, etc. type who are mids and can go forward. Draft at least one.
5. Whoops, almost forgot a small forward is also on my wish list.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

it's all well and good to say lets hit the draft hard and end up with all these first and early second round picks but it's just not going to happen. Every time someone brings up these scenarios they just list a whole heap of trades where we bend other teams over. GC have 4 second rounders they won't deal for our late picks. The only pick they would be interested in is our first rounder.
GWS is the only team that needs points so the best chance we have of winning big in a deal is to trade for players from them. If SOS was happy to take Marchbank at 6 and Ahern at 7 just two years ago what makes people think he is going to find better players with much later picks now?

 

[LemmingMaster]

The GWS fire sale of players for unders is a rare case. They have a number of GWS academy players, that will cost them less coin and need to clear up space.

I don't see why people are not jumping on board getting a group of GWS players for unders to help build our team.

Replace Clem Smith, DVR, Tutt, Jones - Marchbank, Tomlinson, Stewart, Steele....

 

[Jimmae]

In 2001 Hawks had picks #1, #16, #20, #32 and #36. Now only Hodge and Mitchell were the elites Hodge at #1 obviously and they got lucky with Mitchell having seen him develop at Box Hill and knew not too many other clubs would've been interested in him early on. They also got Ladson at #16 and Campbell Brown with #32.

2004 they had #2, #5 and #7. Got Roughead, Franklin and Lewis.
2005 they had #3, #6 and #14. Picked another flag player in Ellis and dud Dowler and got Birchall with #14
2006 they had #6 and #24. They picked another dud Thorp and got Renouf with #24.
2007 they had #12 and got Rioli.

*Bolded players played in a flag or more...

Now from 2001 to 2007 drafts, these are the players they traded in:

2002: Peter Everitt for #6 + #22 and Kingsley Hunter for #35
2003: Trent Croad for #10, Beaumont for Loats, Danny Jacobs for Veale
2004: Beau Nixon and pick#7 for pick#10 and #37

Alrighty, might want to slow down a second here.

In 2001-2005, the Hawks had the advantage of different priority pick rules, which gave them a comparative treasure trove to build with.

What you're also missing is that they were more than happy to trade non-elite senior players if the right offer dropped by (something you briefly touched in when using Casboult as an example). But even there, they benefited from teams clearly not doing due diligence and modelling at their level.

Hay for pick 18 in 2005, Thompson for picks 10 and 26 in 2004; those were swindles! I have a great deal of respect for their business sense and their ability to methodically develop, but they got some massive free kicks due to the AFL and the stupidity of others.

We're in a fundamentally different era, and we're working with much less perceived value, but most importantly you've left out the thing most critical about Hawthorn's manoeuvring: they plot course around the upcoming draft pools. Each move they make reflects how they see the talent at the top end and the spread. Last year, they aggressively went back into the top 20 to secure Burton as well as Lovell.

They're regularly upgrading picks in shallow drafts and acquiring new picks in deeper ones. They have a much better read of the functional output of those they bring in, they evaluate them within the draft class, and they secure these types at closer to their intrinsic value than other clubs.

They never went 'full rebuild', they just kept going where the value was, kept an eye on their list balance and they developed players regardless of circumstances, so put that nonsense back in the box it belongs.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Amazing Line up. This excites me. whats bradley like ???
i think we will need to pick Kerbatieh in the late draft and not await until the rookie if we want to secure the kid there will be numerous clubs looking at him going on form and ex factor. good years to come !!

Bradley is a small lithe player who has his dads aerobic capacity. Playing u18s again, might not be rookie worthy but if he keeps improving could be a two + year project

 

[FlowersByIrene]

i like the theory and what you have put together. great work.

wouldn't it be great to see a running classy left footer like dvr off the hbf. make a big difference. issue is i cant see him making it. hope im wrong.

mitchell wont happen. my feel is simpson will play for another 2 years minimum. age for him is irrelevant and what a great example to others. gibbs & murphy would be in my side. will do better with better players around them.

what still stands out for me is ball use and lack of run through the midfield. still a massive issue. side lacks some speed but that's okay if you use the ball well but we dont. i have no doubt phillips will be our ruckman. has it all its now just time. i hope gorringe becomes the player to back up his talent. as a fwd/ruck he would be great. a bit like stanley or blicavs.

4-5 more young kids in the draft would be good. i reckon g-mac will be a very good full back.

above would be a big step forward but still a bit to do.

my side:

docherty g-mac plowman
byrne marchbank simpson

phillips charlie murphy
boekhurst cripps cuningham

gibbs mckay tomlinson
sumner weitering silvagni

stewart gorringe kerridge then midfield draft picks

Yeah man im a huge Simmo fan, and if coure Curnow, Gibbs and Murph will still be playing, I was just doing a purely 24 and under side. And the fact if we did those trades we could have a full 22 minus a ruck with good good young kids, is pretty exciting.