Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[Dramoth]

Something extra would have to get thrown in but apparently North are four year contract keen.

If they are that keen, then they need to fork over something good for his services. Tuohy isn't the type of guy who would leave and screw over the club at the same time. He would want to ensure we got value for money!

 

[LordLucifer]

I mentioned pick 23 and our third for Stewart (uninjured), Barrett (uninjured), Marchbank (injured), Steele (injured), and Ahern (injured). We get 2 uninjured B grade players and 3 injured potential A grade players. Could be a big win for us.

He shoots, he scores !!

Finally a trade deal isn't selling the farm at the same time.

We have two third rounders this year too, one we got from the Dogs last year. Give them their pick back in exchange for Hrovat, they have dropped him for tonight's final so clearly he is on the outer.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Is Cam Ellis-Yolman worth a shot?

Sorry, carry on..

I wonder if he is a straight shooter?

 

[Dramoth]

it might rate him as that but it still means we're picking at 41 instead of at 11.

Not. Our. Problem.

If you guys think you are going to get him for some shitty player and a fifth rounder, think again. This is SOS you're dealing with... not the bunch of clown from amateur hour we used to be.

 

[4thchicken]

One for the draft watchers

How far ahead is pick 5 player compared to the next rung down? Would it be worth considering/could we tempt say a st kilda for their 1st rounders from 2016 & 2017? ie pick 5 -> pick 10 + gain 2017 1st rounder (expect 8-13 range)

 

[BringBackSimmo]

What was the actual deal? I thought it was just a straight swap

Anderson + 38 + 40 for 15 + 55

 

[Jatz]

Not. Our. Problem.

If you guys think you are going to get him for some shitty player and a fifth rounder, think again. This is SOS you're dealing with... not the bunch of clown from amateur hour we used to be.

Don't think it's that simple. SOS showed with the Menzel pick that he's willing to accept something he can use again, despite what it is.

In isolation, we should have got a higher pick for Menzel (based on potential - not this season). As it turned out, we didn't need one. If SOS thinks he could do something similar, I reckon he'd do it again.

 

[BluesRule]

Is it just me or is it increasingly likely the Lions will get a priority pick?

Reckon it'll be:

1. Essendon - McCluggage
2. Brisbane - Brodie
3. Brisbane - (Bowes bid) McGrath
4. Fremantle/Whoever ends up with this pick - Ainsworth
5. Gold Coast - Bowes
6. Carlton - SPS

Pick 6 is where I think the potentially elite talent ends. There's some potentially top 10 on list players like Clarke etc in the teens that would help us but my 'not for trade' pick threshold is at pick 6.

Cannot see Brisbane getting a priority pick before #19, but agree top 6 looks good.
Would not mind Venables, Scrimshaw, English (Kreuzer needs to be replaced within 4 years), Simpkin, Gallucci, Kerr, Clarke, Battle, Rotham, etc. There is some depth this year if we can get 4 picks in top 20 again.

 

[LordLucifer]

Daniel Mcstay rumoured to be wanting out of Brisbane. SOS has had talks with him "watch this space"

Also Tuohy been offered $550,000 a year from NMFC. 4 year offer is on the table.


#Bluemour

If that is true, then all those calling for their first-rounder in exchange for him are vindicated, you can't offer $2.2mill for a player and expect to get him for peanuts.

 

[BluesRule]

11 this year is more like 15-16 thanks to academy selections.

The odds of you getting 100+ quality games out of a player that'll feature in multiple top 10 finishes in your BnF with that pick (pick 11) are decent. Around 70 percent going by past drafts.

The odds of you getting the same by trading for Touhy are 100 percent.

Scotts going the same route as his brother from the looks of it, and getting in as many 25-28 year old players as he can to bolster the side you currently have and keep your window open another few years.

Geelong did it last year with Henderson, Danger etc.

It makes a lot of sense as it seems so many clubs are going back to the draft, so Norf's would be silly to follow the crowd with worse picks.

There is a lot of quality players aged 26+ who have another 5 years to go available right now and the competition is far less fierce so they will cost little.

Norf's are already a top 8 team so if they fix the holes they will play finals for a few more years

 

[Dramoth]

Don't think it's that simple. SOS showed with the Menzel pick that he's willing to accept something he can use again, despite what it is.

In isolation, we should have got a higher pick for Menzel (based on potential - not this season). As it turned out, we didn't need one. If SOS thinks he could do something similar, I reckon he'd do it again.

I would take 2 seconds from North for Zach. There is no way I would be accepting someone like Black and a third or 4th for Zach. A third and Durdin maybe for Zach and our 4th.

 

[BluesRule]

Think that's debatable Aph. That club is every bit as putrid as ours was when we received one.

We have never received a PP under the current system.
Think the AFL will help Brisbane in other ways and avoid a PP

 

[Tambourine]

Surely NOT SERIOUS!










Oh BTW you forgot Morabito

Yeah just joking!

 

[RattAttack]

If that is true, then all those calling for their first-rounder in exchange for him are vindicated, you can't offer $2.2mill for a player and expect to get him for peanuts.

THIS.

 

[ferrisb]

Don't think it's that simple. SOS showed with the Menzel pick that he's willing to accept something he can use again, despite what it is.

In isolation, we should have got a higher pick for Menzel (based on potential - not this season). As it turned out, we didn't need one. If SOS thinks he could do something similar, I reckon he'd do it again.

Interestingly, we took unders for Menzel because we knew it was going to GWS, who knew it was going to Collingwood.

So, extracting a better deal for Menz would have been a worse outcome!

The club even warned us after the Menzel trade to wait for the final outcome and view it holistically (can't remember the exact wording).

These are guys that know what they are doing (finally).

 

[Thewlis Dish]

Anderson + 38 + 40 for 15 + 55

38 and 40 were sent to Brisbane along with Bastinac and a 2017 third to get 17 and 26 back.

We effectively swapped Bastinac for Anderson, dropped two spots in the first round and turned our 2017 third rounder into a 2016 second rounder.

 

[BluesRule]

I would take 2 seconds from North for Zach. There is no way I would be accepting someone like Black and a third or 4th for Zach. A SECOND (#30) and Durdin maybe for Zach and our 3rd (#41).

Think their 2 seconds works as their 2017 second could be handy in next years draft.
Would only take Durdin if SOS rates him a genuine AFL level player that could replace Rowe to improve our back line (if we do not get Marchbank).
(note we have no 4th so changed as above).

 

[Thewlis Dish]

11 this year is more like 15-16 thanks to academy selections.

Assuming the academy selections go to their specific clubs then it is still 11, as you're only picking from the available pool.

Scotts going the same route as his brother from the looks of it, and getting in as many 25-28 year old players as he can to bolster the side you currently have and keep your window open another few years.

Geelong did it last year with Henderson, Danger etc.

Geelong did it but central to that was having the best midfielder in the comp want to come home.

We have nine players from the last three drafts in the VFL either yet to debut or having played less than five games (Hibberd, Clarke, Preuss, Durdin, McKay, Vickers-Willis, Nielsen, Wagner, Mountford) - even if say four of them establish themselves as best 22 senior players we will be doing well. A lot has been made of us recruiting veterans and "topping up" but we've still picked in the first round for the last 10 years and maintained a decent spread of ages and experience on our list.

I expect the goal is to replenish the list without bottoming out, meaning we will probably target players in the 22-28 age range, retain a first round pick and try and blood some of the aforementioned names.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

38 and 40 were sent to Brisbane along with Bastinac and a 2017 third to get 17 and 26 back.

We effectively swapped Bastinac for Anderson, dropped two spots in the first round and turned our 2017 third rounder into a 2016 second rounder.

Shhhhh we are trying to ignore that so that we can legitimise bending you over with Touhy

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

If that is true, then all those calling for their first-rounder in exchange for him are vindicated, you can't offer $2.2mill for a player and expect to get him for peanuts.

sure they can and it actually makes it a lot easier for them to do so.

 

[Dramoth]

Think their 2 seconds works as their 2017 second could be handy in next years draft.
Would only take Durdin if SOS rates him a genuine AFL level player that could replace Rowe to improve our back line (if we do not get Marchbank).
(note we have no 4th so changed as above).

Use the dogs third...

 

[Funk]

Yes, I think bottom 4 is most likely scenario. Apart from Weitering, I can't see any of our draft picks being at the stage where they could have break out years. Hard to see where the improvement in the midfield is going to come from for us to do better next year, and if guys like Gibbs and Cripps get injured we could be in trouble.

If we are that concerned then get Harvey and Dal Santo as DFA's on rolling 1 year contracts then phase the young guys in when they are ready - not before.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if SOS goes down this path - would not be greatly different to what he did at GWS.

 

[LordLucifer]

Shhhhh we are trying to ignore that so that we can legitimise bending you over with Touhy

I'm not even going to bother trying to discuss that point with you, it's crazy thinking.

 

[DangerousD]

1. Yes

2. No

3. Maybe

4. Maybe not

5. Make it better than 34 then YES

6. Yes

7. Trade out 41, 54, 77

8. No

9. Getting better

Cmon Sheik, you Pooh poohed my second trade option, probably as you think 2017 is a strong draft and you think 23 in 2017 is better than 15 this year.

But

You then pooh pooh the idea of trading our 2018 first for a 2017 first (which you rate so high) maybe we could do better than pick 18 maybe 14 or something. I justify this as, If Ben SOS is rated as a first rounder then I'd rather trade that pick and pay for it with seconds.

Kruz on his own I think is worth around 25, but taking 34 id be happy with as it included Hrovat or a similar type.

If something along those lines happened it would mean we would of taken 8 first round selections in 3 drafts plus added young players via trades. In 2018 I hope the loss of a first round pick could be substituted by us being appealing to a FA.

 

[Funk]

Just for a giggle... Marchbank and Stewart for picks 23 and 41... and we'll take Ahern, Pickett and Steele off their hands as part of the deal!

A mate of mine owns a wheelchair business - will ask him if he wants to sponsor our new recruits?