Draft Review 2016 - Revisiting the 2016 AFL Draft

[Grockadoc]

McCluggage still number 1 for me in terms of output. Bolton has had a great 2020 and a solid 2021 so far and probably has the most potential of the lot, but still got a way to go to catch McCluggage.

 

[Wild Bill]

Yeah give me McCluggage number 1 here, kid is class

McGrath is still very good. This is not a howler and every chance McGrath is top 5 at career end.

 

[Ambrosia]

McGrath is still very good. This is not a howler and every chance McGrath is top 5 at career end.

It hurts a bit because McLuggage was most peoples number 1 it seemed.

 

[carnthedons]

McGrath is still very good. This is not a howler and every chance McGrath is top 5 at career end.

He’s gotta be top 5 or just outside it right now anyway doesn’t he? Hugh Mc ahead, Stewart too but he was drafted older than Andy is right now. TT, Bolton, Ridley all around the same level. I like Simpkin but feel he lacks consistency against the others here. R Marshall maybe. Luke Ryan is a gun but flip of the coin him v McGrath.

I reckon he’s a bit underrated (I even underrate him tbh). He hacks out of traffic too often sure but he’s a 22yo mid averaging 26 touches, almost 6 tackles and almost 5 clearances a game this year. Does all that while being our most attack/defence balanced mid allowing Parish and Merrett to attack more. He’s also a huge part of the professionalism and drive that our young guys are demonstrating and would probably be an AA small defender if we wanted him to be.

I know we all have a tendency to overrate our own and he’s the third best mid in a side sitting 11th but he’s better than most give him credit for both from an individual output standpoint and the rest of the intangibles he brings around the place.

 

[Andronicus]

McGrath is still very good. This is not a howler and every chance McGrath is top 5 at career end.

Agree.

McGrath wasn't the wrong choice like people want to suggest, but by the same token, Brisbane have the clear best player. Bolton is showing some real class.

 

[Haychh]

McGrath is still very good. This is not a howler and every chance McGrath is top 5 at career end.

Definitely no regrets with the McGrath pick the kid is class. As I’ve said in the past the gap between McGrath and McCluggage isn’t big enough to say it was a poor selection. In 5 years time we could be saying we got the best player from the draft.

Just on this draft another class game from Stewart today, kind of player every team would love in their side.

 

[Tom14]

Read the article seems to massively underrate Mcluggage who is clearly number 1 in this draft imo

That’s the author trying to be objective - Mike Whiting is the qld reporter and cohosts the lions podcast. He rates Mccluggage.

 

[The Nostradamus]

I’m pretty happy with simpkin especially with pick 12 - I have Taranto at the top then mcluggage then McGrath/Simpkin

 

[KissKiss]

He’s gotta be top 5 or just outside it right now anyway doesn’t he? Hugh Mc ahead, Stewart too but he was drafted older than Andy is right now. TT, Bolton, Ridley all around the same level. I like Simpkin but feel he lacks consistency against the others here. R Marshall maybe. Luke Ryan is a gun but flip of the coin him v McGrath.

I reckon he’s a bit underrated (I even underrate him tbh). He hacks out of traffic too often sure but he’s a 22yo mid averaging 26 touches, almost 6 tackles and almost 5 clearances a game this year. Does all that while being our most attack/defence balanced mid allowing Parish and Merrett to attack more. He’s also a huge part of the professionalism and drive that our young guys are demonstrating and would probably be an AA small defender if we wanted him to be.

I know we all have a tendency to overrate our own and he’s the third best mid in a side sitting 11th but he’s better than most give him credit for both from an individual output standpoint and the rest of the intangibles he brings around the place.

Feels like this was likely going to be the case from the start as he was identified as having the highest floor. Pretty common for clubs picking with 1 to go for a "safe" option to ensure its not a failure. Maybe wont end up being the best but very very unlikely of being a bust.

Personally rate him pretty highly and absolutely have him top 5 in the draft

 

[Wild Bill]

He’s gotta be top 5 or just outside it right now anyway doesn’t he? Hugh Mc ahead, Stewart too but he was drafted older than Andy is right now. TT, Bolton, Ridley all around the same level. I like Simpkin but feel he lacks consistency against the others here. R Marshall maybe. Luke Ryan is a gun but flip of the coin him v McGrath.

I reckon he’s a bit underrated (I even underrate him tbh). He hacks out of traffic too often sure but he’s a 22yo mid averaging 26 touches, almost 6 tackles and almost 5 clearances a game this year. Does all that while being our most attack/defence balanced mid allowing Parish and Merrett to attack more. He’s also a huge part of the professionalism and drive that our young guys are demonstrating and would probably be an AA small defender if we wanted him to be.

I know we all have a tendency to overrate our own and he’s the third best mid in a side sitting 11th but he’s better than most give him credit for both from an individual output standpoint and the rest of the intangibles he brings around the place.

Very little between Simpkin and McGraths stats. Not sure how is less consistent.

Taranto 29.7
McGrath 26.1
Simpkin 25.4
McCluggage 25.2
Bolton 21.9
Florent 20.7

 

[Ambrosia]

Very little between Simpkin and McGraths stats. Not sure how is less consistent.

Taranto 29.7
McGrath 26.1
Simpkin 25.4
McCluggage 25.2
Bolton 21.9
Florent 20.7

I’d say there are 4 clear tiers of mids in the draft.

Tier 1
1. McCluggage (just a class above at this stage hard to see the gap closing)
Tier 2
2. Taranto (Physical tools seperate him from the below)
Tier3
3-5
McGrath
Simpkin
Bolton
Tier 4
6-9
Perryman
Florent
Daicos
Bowes

Unranked but good players
Parfitt
Fisher
Narkle
Lipinki

 

[blaisee]

Very little between Simpkin and McGraths stats. Not sure how is less consistent.

Taranto 29.7
McGrath 26.1
Simpkin 25.4
McCluggage 25.2
Bolton 21.9
Florent 20.7

why are disposals kicks and handballs used as the be all and end all, What about advanced metrics like

SI, I50s, clearances, goals, metres gained .

Gls clr SI I50s metres
Bolton 1.22 4.56 6.67 5.33 419
Simpkin .010 4.64 4.55 4.09 321
Clug .82 3.18 7.82 4.64 425
Mcgrath .10 5.09 6.00 3.36 306
Taranto .20 4.55 5.45 4.18 422

 

[Haychh]

Ahh we’re doing this again

 

[citizen-erased]

Ahh we’re doing this again

it was a nice 48hrs there at least.

 

[Wild Bill]

I’d say there are 4 clear tiers of mids in the draft.

Tier 1
1. McCluggage (just a class above at this stage hard to see the gap closing)
Tier 2
2. Taranto (Physical tools seperate him from the below)
Tier3
3-5
McGrath
Simpkin
Bolton
Tier 4
6-9
Perryman
Florent
Daicos
Bowes

Unranked but good players
Parfitt
Fisher
Narkle
Lipinki

Agree - good post

 

[Wild Bill]

why are disposals kicks and handballs used as the be all and end all, What about advanced metrics like

SI, I50s, clearances, goals, metres gained .

Gls clr SI I50s metres
Bolton 1.22 4.56 6.67 5.33 419
Simpkin .010 4.64 4.55 4.09 321
Clug .82 3.18 7.82 4.64 425
Mcgrath .10 5.09 6.00 3.36 306
Taranto .20 4.55 5.45 4.18 422

Yeah - lets use the advance metrics that help a forward/mid more than a pure mid.

We should also ignore advanced metrics like rebound form 50's, intercepts and tackles.

 

[Haychh]

 

[blaisee]

Yeah - lets use the advance metrics that help a forward/mid more than a pure mid.

We should also ignore advanced metrics like rebound form 50's, intercepts and tackles.

go for your life, no one is stopping you from strengthening your argument with analytics.

 

[blaisee]

Ahh we’re doing this again

I know it must be annoying when facts and data is presented to strengthen an argument, as opposed to pure cognitive bias, but hey suit yourself

 

[blaisee]

Yeah - lets use the advance metrics that help a forward/mid more than a pure mid.

We should also ignore advanced metrics like rebound form 50's, intercepts and tackles.

So

you reckon metres gained is a stat that suits a mid/fwd?

How so?

Do you realise that out of the top 8/ 10 in the AFL, are all half back flankers or pure mids ? there are no mid/fwds in the top 10

k	Player	Team	Games	Metres Gained for Last Game	Average
1​	Brodie Smith​	Crows​	11​	473 v Richmond, Round 11​	615.82​
2​	Paul Seedsman​	Crows​	11​	409 v Richmond, Round 11​	609.00​
3​	Daniel Rich​	Lions​	11​	460 v GWS, Round 11​	607.55​
4​	Jack Lukosius​	Suns​	11​	737 v Hawthorn, Round 11​	591.36​
5​	Aaron Hall​	Kangaroos​	9​	852 v St Kilda, Round 11​	589.78​
6​	Marcus Bontempelli​	Bulldogs​	11​	357 v Melbourne, Round 11​	589.73​
7​	Jayden Short​	Tigers​	11​	391 v Adelaide, Round 11​	546.64​
8​	Christian Petracca​	Demons​	11​	427 v Western Bulldogs, Round 11​	539.64​
9​	Jack Ziebell​	Kangaroos​	11​	513 v St Kilda, Round 11​	536.27​
10​	Sam Docherty​	Blues​	11​	334 v Sydney, Round 11​	526.09​

 

[citizen-erased]

If held again today, even with lists where they currently are, i don't think the Dons go outside Clug, McGrath or Taranto for pick 1.
Top 3 would go exactly the same.

If the draft was redone in hindsight
Ess-McCluggage
GWS - McGrath
Lions - Taranto
GCS - Bolton
Carl - Simpkin
GCS - Berry
Freo - Ridley
GCS - English
GCS - Bowes
Syd - Darcy

Perryman probably gets an earlier bid too.

EDIT

 

[Haychh]

I know it must be annoying when facts and data is presented to strengthen an argument, as opposed to pure cognitive bias, but hey suit yourself

You’re preaching to the choir man

 

[Virgin Dog]

If held again today, even with lists where they currently are, i don't think the Dons go outside Clug, McGrath or Taranto for pick 1.
Top 3 would go exactly the same.

If the draft was redone in hindsight
Ess-McCluggage
GWS - McGrath
Lions - Taranto
GCS - Bolton
Carl - Simpkin
GCS - Berry
Freo - Ridley
GCS - Ainsworth
GCS - Bowes
Syd - Darcy

Perryman probably gets an earlier bid too.

English would surely go within the top 10 if done again. Averaging over 2 contested marks per game, and kicked 11.6 from his 7 games this year playing as a second ruck/KPF. Pity he missed those 4 games to concussion because he was flying beforehand, and returned to be one of our best against Melbourne.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

English would surely go within the top 10 if done again. Averaging over 2 contested marks per game, and kicked 11.6 from his 7 games this year playing as a second ruck/KPF. Pity he missed those 4 games to concussion because he was flying beforehand, and returned to be one of our best against Melbourne.

English has really improved this year (I know Stefan Martin coming in has helped as well) but English seems more mature and sure of his game.

 

[Virgin Dog]

English has really improved this year (I know Stefan Martin coming in has helped as well) but English seems more mature and sure of his game.

Martin's having the kind of influence that Ryder did on Marshall. Long overdue for English to have some support, and even having Sweet in as #1 ruck in Martin's absence has helped English's game