AFL 2017 - AFL Round 7

[maskmcgee]

Richmond H2H
GWS Line
Port Line
Adelaide Line

22$

 

[iluvparis]

Yes, losing to a top 4 team in Richmond, then almost defeating the reigning premiers away from home, Sydney should have no problem beating them by 7 goals. I'm sure Sydney would get within 2 goals of Richmond?

 

[Vhaluus]

Guys Sydney lost to Carlton... CARLTON.

Unless their form improves they will lose to Brisbane.

The only question mark around this game is if they get their shit together and improve or not. Because Carlton are the worst side in the competition so if you lose to them you lose to anyone.

 

[DylanR]

Just cant see how Sydney will go from 0-6 to all of a sudden thumping a footy team by 40+

 

[Jugada]

Sure on this years form you dont want to be on Sydney, but 7 games ago they were still competing in a grand final so they have credits in the bank over a bigger body of work. The players are all still there, they are just out of form at the moment

 

[maskmcgee]

Tell me what position they're in right now then?

 

[Jugada]

Tell me what position they're in right now then?

Were Brisbane a top 8 team after round 1?

 

[TheScream]

Guys Sydney lost to Carlton... CARLTON.

Unless their form improves they will lose to Brisbane.

The only question mark around this game is if they get their shit together and improve or not. Because Carlton are the worst side in the competition so if you lose to them you lose to anyone.

Still think Brisbane are the worst team in the comp. Carlton do get smashed at times but they respond to them. They got close to a good side in melbourne, beat essendon (and you can't attribute an entire result to weather), a little unlucky against the gold coast (they kicked 17.6) and responded to the port thrashing by beating sydney. They'll cover lines this year as big underdogs. Brisbane however play like statues for large parts of the game, they can lose halves by 10 goals let alone games (e.g. Bulldogs). They've conceded 37, 34, 37 and 40 scoring shots in the last 3 weeks. They have had periods of good play (1st quarter round 1 & 2nd quarter round 5) but if there's one team that can find a way to not cover a 40 point line when they're winning in the 3rd quarter it's definitely brisbane. Small play on brisbane but definitely not going gungho, sydney will respond at some point.

 

[maskmcgee]

Were Brisbane a top 8 team after round 1?

Uh - No...

 

[Jugada]

Uh - No...

Exactly

 

[JC Hawks]

Just cant see how Sydney will go from 0-6 to all of a sudden thumping a footy team by 40+

Well Hawthorn did it, but we were only 0-4 at that stage.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Thoughts on Brisbane on the line?

 

[Zevon]

Reading some of the above posts and I don't think Sydney-Brisbane is a game where you play the line at all. If the Swans respond then they'll cover a 40 point line, but if they don't then they're unlikely to win at all so you're better off going for the value and taking Brisbane at $7 (unibet).

Not really seeing any value in either team at the line tbh.

 

[Kevin Cbflife]

Thoughts on Gws at the margin of 1-40, Collingwood to win by over 20, Crows to win over 37, Gelelong to win over 23, Sydney over 38 and Melbourne over 14.

All up the price is 48.11$

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Port -4.5 Q1
Freo h2h
Demons h2h
Saints +25.5
Geelong +30.5
Crows -37.5

$20 @ $17.59

 

[HeavyPop]

Quarter lines I like ATM:

Richmond 1st quarter +4.5
Geelong 1st quarter -5.5
Port 1st quarter -4.5
Crows 2nd quarter -8.5
Collingwood 1st quarter -4.5
Melbourne 4th quarter - 4.5

 

[puntking]

Thoughts on Brisbane on the line?

the way swans are going prob pretty good

 

[maskmcgee]

Thoughts on Gws at the margin of 1-40, Collingwood to win by over 20, Crows to win over 37, Gelelong to win over 23, Sydney over 38 and Melbourne over 14.

All up the price is 48.11$

Too many legs and includes Collingwood, Carlton, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and Hawthorn, 6 teams you don't want to touch right now until they get their form figured out.

 

[Macpotata]

I agree, betting against the Bulldogs is a bad bet.

But you're not arguing about the wisdom of the bet, you're arguing to defend your team.

Load of shit. The guy sees what anyone with half a brain can. The dogs stepped it up when they had to and in a " test " answered the challenge or at least showed they can match it. The tigers first true test they shat the bed and got absolutely crucified.

 

[Vhaluus]

Load of shit. The guy sees what anyone with half a brain can. The dogs stepped it up when they had to and in a " test " answered the challenge or at least showed they can match it. The tigers first true test they shat the bed and got absolutely crucified.

Did you just not read my post?

I clearly stated I agreed it's not wise to bet against the bulldogs.

 

[DemonZombie_001]

For me...
Carlton are playing with a desire that Sydney trademarked. It's just that they are not a mature side as yet. If you don't turn up then yes Carlton will beat you. And Sydney just did not turn up. Will Collingwood, I have a feeling they will not. But that is not good enough for a bet, so I am staying away from this.

For the Swans vs Lions, if anything betting on the first quarter (in favour of the Swans against Brisbane) seems like the way to go for me. They had pumped themselves up for the GWS game and blew them off the park for the first 5 mins (then did a swan dive), and I can see that domination happening again against the Lions for at least the first quarter.

All that said Brisbane and Collingwood are the Jekyll and Hyde of the competition. So who knows what you will get on the day. That does make betting on those games very risky.

I actually fancy Carlton over Collingwood, and I think Sydney will win 40+ I just don't know if I would bet on those in any meaningful manner.

On lines that I think are decent:-

• Fremantle -12.5
• GWS at -14.5
• Port at -19.5

That is it, I feel. I think the agencies are getting a feel for the teams now (last week odds on Saints was way way overs for example).

Based on last week (Dogs showing up and Collingwood doing Geeling which both killed a few multis) the rest of the games are very iffy.

Next rounds odds look pretty good, so I might look more towards that round.

 

[free at last]

If the pies v blues game doesn't get affected by rain,pies will cover the line comfortably imo....The influence of a fit & firing Daniel Wells is massive.

 

[hedgedhog]

That is it, I feel. I think the agencies are getting a feel for the teams now (last week odds on Saints was way way overs for example).

I don't think it was just the agencies. A lot of models would've had the teams quite similarly rated as well.

 

[targett]

Anyone tempted U200.5 Crows v North at Blundstone Arena.Traditionally not a high scoring venue.There is a hint of wet weather Saturday for Hobart.However the Crows are flying and could really destroy North in any conditions.

 

[langdon19]

Tempted but dependant on weather, as you said crows are flying.
Thoughts on GC v Cats, think it will cover the 192.5, surprised it hasn't gone up.