AFL 2017 - AFL Round 7

[Oraz]

Down a lot but can't panic...back on the horse..

Plays for today

1u under 2.5 goals (Melbourne v Sydney FC) @1.97

Expecting a tight game. Good value here.

1u Melbourne -11.5 @ 1.70

I think Hawthorn may be competitive here, but with Hogan coming back the Dees should win this

 

[happy punter]

Every dog has covered the start so far this round

 

[langdon19]

Is 101 odds at 365? I'm looking at $51 odds

Was at 365, bounced between 81 and 101 yesterday

 

[Spads]

Down a lot but can't panic...back on the horse..

Plays for today

1u under 2.5 goals (Melbourne v Sydney FC) @1.97

Expecting a tight game. Good value here.

1u Melbourne -11.5 @ 1.70

I think Hawthorn may be competitive here, but with Hogan coming back the Dees should win this

I thought the account was dry?

 

[Sketi]

Aliir out for disciplinary reasons lol, we are a mess.

2U Brisbane +50.0 1.92

Line is too crazy to pass up.

 

[Spads]

Bets for today:
1U Brisbane +50.5
1U Melbourne -12.5
1U Freo -10.5

 

[DylanR]

Based on this weeks results I feel obliged to have a small punt on Brisbane

 

[Jugada]

Every dog has covered the start so far this round

Not surprising given 5/6 dogs have won H2H

 

[Jugada]

I thought the account was dry?

Troll confirmed... surely

 

[maskmcgee]

Allir Allir late withdrawal.

 

[Jammer]

1 unit Hawks at $2.60

Dees are not the team you want to back off a win let alone at $1.50ish.
If Dockers can beat them over here so can Hawks with their best team in
for the year.
Cold windy most likely slippery day is a similar spot to their last bounce back
effort off a smashing v West Coast.

 

[karaoke]

https://m.topsport.com.au/#SportComp/2914263

Neale more marks than Zaharakis @ 4.33

Can only get Ave on phone-
Neale 3.3 v Zaka 5.8 for '17

Anyone got rd by rd for these 2 this year?

 

[leevone]

Under 170 Hawks V Melbourne @ 2.94

Considering they're playing at MCG in the rain? Thoughts

 

[Oraz]

I thought the account was dry?

Deposited more

Couldn't help myself

I think i panicked too much and will start fresh
hopefully get some wins today

 

[Robo87]

https://m.topsport.com.au/#SportComp/2914263

Neale more marks than Zaharakis @ 4.33

Can only get Ave on phone-
Neale 3.3 v Zaka 5.8 for '17

Anyone got rd by rd for these 2 this year?

Neale marks 5,2,4,4,3,2
Zaha marks 5,4,3,8,6,9

on average it looks like Zaha would beat him imo.

 

[Jugada]

Some people have way too much free time on their hands

 

[mookieb]

1 unit Hawks at $2.60

Dees are not the team you want to back off a win let alone at $1.50ish.
If Dockers can beat them over here so can Hawks with their best team in
for the year.
Cold windy most likely slippery day is a similar spot to their last bounce back
effort off a smashing v West Coast.

I think the Dees have been pretty good. 3W 3L but probably would have beaten Geelong if they kicked straight, probably would have beaten Richmond bar injuries and fell asleep for a quarter vs Freo.

Hawks formline is a win vs WC at the MCG and losses by 86, 86, 75, 25 and 25 points. Melbourne should be a very bad matchup for the Hawks given they are relatively quick and have a very strong midfield. So -13.5 seems very low unless the bookies are anticipating a bounce back effort. Jordan Lewis vs his old team so should be a bit of fire in the game.

I hedged some of my Melbourne bets out given the upsets to date so got some on Hawks +13.5 and a small wager on Hawks win and Smith to kick a goal.

Edit: Adding Lewis over 26.4 possessions.

 

[Spads]

Under 170 Hawks V Melbourne @ 2.94

Considering they're playing at MCG in the rain? Thoughts

0-1mm of rain, the line is 188 which looks right, and both defences are shaky?

 

[targett]

Neale marks 5,2,4,4,3,2
Zaha marks 5,4,3,8,6,9

on average it looks like Zaha would beat him imo.

I think @2.80 for Neale is the value

 

[Spads]

Troll confirmed... surely

You'd think. Kind of the signifying characteristic of a downward spiral is the fact that you don't know you're in one.

 

[Jammer]

I think the Dees have been pretty good. 3W 3L but probably would have beaten Geelong if they kicked straight, probably would have beaten Richmond bar injuries and fell asleep for a quarter vs Freo.

Hawks formline is a win vs WC at the MCG and losses by 86, 86, 75, 25 and 25 points. Melbourne should be a very bad matchup for the Hawks given they are relatively quick and have a very strong midfield. So -13.5 seems very low unless the bookies are anticipating a bounce back effort. Jordan Lewis vs his old team so should be a bit of fire in the game.

I hedged some of my Melbourne bets out given the upsets to date so got some on Hawks +13.5 and a small wager on Hawks win and Smith to kick a goal.

Fair points, however todays weather conditions and a Clarkson bake makes me believe $2.60 the Hawks is a good play.
In saying that if they are not in front at half time I'll probably trade out and take the smaller loss as they fold once they
get 3 goals down.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Brisbane suck. Why'd I bet on Brisbane +50.5? With Beams out too.

 

[JC Hawks]

Brisbane suck. Why'd I bet on Brisbane +50.5? With Beams out too.

Because Sydney haven't won a game.

 

[happy punter]

Because Sydney haven't won a game.

And they have yet to cover a spread this season

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Brisbane have 6 players under the age of 20 FFS and the rest are spuds. Should have done some more research.