Opinion 2017 Draft Discussion - Pick 3 - Poll added

[The Smoking Gun]

Cerra lacks pace. If we're going for a mid then Dow may be the best option.

If Rayner is available at pick #3 I have no doubt we'll take him.

I watched Cerra 3 times live at the U18 Carnival and 5 times at TAC Cup Level for Eastern Ranges. Needs to work on his acceleration, not pace. I also watched him almost run down LDU who had a 4m head start and LDU ain't no slouch. I would take Cerra's or Constable's disposal and vision over Dow's outright pace any day. They're things that aren't particularly visible on a TV coverage, let alone a 2 minute Youtube highlight package.

I also saw how stuffed Rayner was after a 5 minute run on the ball compared to the likes of Cerra, Constable, Brayshaw, Dow, Worpel or Higgins who all have strong endurance.

I'll back my own knowledge on this Draft Crop from having watched many, if not most, of them play live thank you very much.

 

[TerryWallet]

Closer to 25

beyond 25 imo

 

[Arr0w]

I watched Cerra 3 times live at the U18 Carnival and 5 times at TAC Cup Level for Eastern Ranges. Needs to work on his acceleration, not pace. I also watched him almost run down LDU who had a 4m head start and LDU ain't no slouch. I would take Cerra's or Constable's disposal and vision over Dow's outright pace any day. They're things that aren't particularly visible on a TV coverage, let alone a 2 minute Youtube highlight package.

I also saw how stuffed Rayner was after a 5 minute run on the ball compared to the likes of Cerra, Constable, Brayshaw, Dow, Worpel or Higgins who all have strong endurance.

I'll back my own knowledge on this Draft Crop from having watched many, if not most, of them play live thank you very much.

Couldn't agree more !!

Especially the 2 minute highlight reel, generally only showing a player's better disposals/traits

 

[Arr0w]

beyond 25 imo

Agreed, heading that way Terry

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I watched Cerra 3 times live at the U18 Carnival and 5 times at TAC Cup Level for Eastern Ranges. Needs to work on his acceleration, not pace. I also watched him almost run down LDU who had a 4m head start and LDU ain't no slouch. I would take Cerra's or Constable's disposal and vision over Dow's outright pace any day. They're things that aren't particularly visible on a TV coverage, let alone a 2 minute Youtube highlight package.

I also saw how stuffed Rayner was after a 5 minute run on the ball compared to the likes of Cerra, Constable, Brayshaw, Dow, Worpel or Higgins who all have strong endurance.

I'll back my own knowledge on this Draft Crop from having watched many, if not most, of them play live thank you very much.

Sorry for having an opinion...

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Where would worpel fit in,15-25?

Worpel is much better than most here give him credit for and his kicking was no where near as bad as I was lead to believe based on what I saw at the U18 Carnival.....and I've watched him live (mind you it's hard to watch them dead) against Vic Metro, WA, SA and once against Eastern Ranges.

What he lacks in outright class he makes up for with an excellent work ethic, determination, a solid defensive side to his game and the innate ability to get his hands on the ball in stoppage, clearance and contested situations. It is for these reasons I believe he will succeed where others think he'll fail. The only person I can readily think of that covers more ground in a match is Cassidy Parish. Late 1st - early 2nd Round is about right. Whoever gets him will be rapt.

 

[Arr0w]

Worpel is much better than most here give him credit for and his kicking was no where near as bad as I was lead to believe based on what I saw at the U18 Carnival.....and I've watched him live (mind you it's hard to watch them dead) against Vic Metro, WA, SA and once against Eastern Ranges.

What he lacks in outright class he makes up for with an excellent work ethic, determination, a solid defensive side to his game and the innate ability to get his hands on the ball in stoppage, clearance and contested situations. It is for these reasons I believe he will succeed where others think he'll fail. The only person I can readily think of that covers more ground in a match is Cassidy Parish. Late 1st - early 2nd Round is about right. Whoever gets him will be rapt.

Worpel is a strange one, could go from late first to mid second (where i rate him). IMO, better bang for your buck would be Kyron Hayden

 

[TerryWallet]

Worpel is much better than most here give him credit for and his kicking was no where near as bad as I was lead to believe based on what I saw at the U18 Carnival.....and I've watched him live (mind you it's hard to watch them dead) against Vic Metro, WA, SA and once against Eastern Ranges.

What he lacks in outright class he makes up for with an excellent work ethic, determination, a solid defensive side to his game and the innate ability to get his hands on the ball in stoppage, clearance and contested situations. It is for these reasons I believe he will succeed where others think he'll fail. The only person I can readily think of that covers more ground in a match is Cassidy Parish. Late 1st - early 2nd Round is about right. Whoever gets him will be rapt.

imo, Worpel, and Parish for that manner, project as Sam Kerridge like. aka dime a dozen. Your description doesn't alleviate that .

imo, Worpel reads/looks/sounds more Kerridge than SPP for example, who was damaging forward of centre..

Think recruiters will be looking for more scope below 30 or 35ish and look to pick up meat and potato only types where they got guys like Graham, Mathison, D.Clarke, Jonty.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

This week's TAC CUP Stats, from some of the kids that have been spoken about, with some additions of kids that did well in certain areas

Some of the fancied prospects missing, Dow, Cerra, Rayner, LDU

Both the Brayshaw boys played well

As per last week, can supply full results, if interested

View attachment 411814

Based on the weather conditions at the weekend, it's probably a bit hard to take too much notice of KE%.

Jimmae & Arr0w it's good to notice Roughie's still in amongst the thick of things. The most encouraging thing is the "apparent" consistency of his performances.

Interesting to notice Matt Balmers September Power Rankings are out and he lists them from 1-35. Here is the link for anyone who would like to read through it.
Read more...

Jimmae will simply say I told you so but Aiden Bonar made it in. Here's the player bios Matt Balmer did on him:

#26 Aiden Bonar

Inside Midfielder/General Forward (Haileybury College/Dandenong Stingrays)
08/03/1999 | 190cm | 89kg
Previous ranking: N/A

Scouting notes: Build like a brick sh!thouse. After recovering from two ACL surgeries on his knee, Bonar has presence about him around the ground, mostly playing up forward as a third tall – but has pushed into the midfield for longer periods with each game he plays. His pressure is very good and he can lay bone crunching tackles. Has a good burst of speed and is strong overhead. Suggestion is he’ll end up a full time midfielder. Possesses a big upside.

Last month: Was outstanding in the triple header at MARS Stadium, showing off his contested marking up forward. Bonar finished with 18 disposals, seven marks (four contested), five inside 50s and booted two goals. Laid five tackles against the Sandringham Dragons, setting up and early goal – while he spent a lot of time through the midfield against Geelong Falcons on Sunday with 20 disposals (12 contested), five inside 50s and four tackles.

HARKER will be pleased to see Nick Coffield has snuck up into Top 5 contention in Balmer's estimation.

Meanwhile Andrew Brayshaw has climbed up into 9th.

 

[F_therest]

He's certainly around Top 10 material MSR. One of the few genuine mids who can play as a quality forward when not on ball. Has always managed to lift his standard to the next level whenever critics (me included) question his virtues.

Is he like Zorko?

 

[The Smoking Gun]

imo, Worpel, and Parish for that manner, project as Sam Kerridge like. aka dime a dozen. Your description doesn't alleviate that .

imo, Worpel reads/looks/sounds more Kerridge than SPP for example, who was damaging forward of centre..

Think recruiters will be looking for more scope below 30 or 35ish and look to pick up meat and potato only types where they got guys like Graham, Mathison, D.Clarke, Jonty.

No, Cassidy Parish's disposal makes him almost as draftable as a mouldy brussel sprout. Not sure there's another kid who works harder tbh, but he'll be extremely lucky not to go the same way as Jonty Scharenberg.

 

[F_therest]

I watched Cerra 3 times live at the U18 Carnival and 5 times at TAC Cup Level for Eastern Ranges. Needs to work on his acceleration, not pace. I also watched him almost run down LDU who had a 4m head start and LDU ain't no slouch. I would take Cerra's or Constable's disposal and vision over Dow's outright pace any day. They're things that aren't particularly visible on a TV coverage, let alone a 2 minute Youtube highlight package.

I also saw how stuffed Rayner was after a 5 minute run on the ball compared to the likes of Cerra, Constable, Brayshaw, Dow, Worpel or Higgins who all have strong endurance.

I'll back my own knowledge on this Draft Crop from having watched many, if not most, of them play live thank you very much.

If true i don't want us going anywhere near Rayner...if his endurance really is that bad he won't have the impact expected of him at AFL level where the running demands and pace of the game are much higher than in the TAC.

If after what would have been years of dedication to reach the AFL he still has such poor endurance, it would suggest his base is naturally very low and it would be very difficult for him to improve it by much...will never be an AFL midfielder.

 

[mediumsizered]

No, Cassidy Parish's disposal makes him almost as draftable as a mouldy brussel sprout. Not sure there's another kid who works harder tbh, but he'll be extremely lucky not to go the same way as Jonty Scharenberg.

I seem to remember reading somewhere that his kicking efficiency (or perhaps inefficiency) was in the high 30% range. It might have just been for one game, but this is shit awful.

 

[TerryWallet]

No, Cassidy Parish's disposal makes him almost as draftable as a mouldy brussel sprout. Not sure there's another kid who works harder tbh, but he'll be extremely lucky not to go the same way as Jonty Scharenberg.

Agree. To be clearer, i see Worpel as 30+ and have all year, and Parrish as a rookie type at best.

 

[thylacine60]

Couldn't agree more !!

Especially the 2 minute highlight reel, generally only showing a player's better disposals/traits

anyone else notice highlight reels only ever seem to concentrate on one player?

 

[Gingerbread man]

This week's TAC CUP Stats, from some of the kids that have been spoken about, with some additions of kids that did well in certain areas

Some of the fancied prospects missing, Dow, Cerra, Rayner, LDU

Both the Brayshaw boys played well

As per last week, can supply full results, if interested

View attachment 411814

Brander's numbers are poor
Bonar's KE does not read well either

 

[katmanblue]

Brander's numbers are poor
Bonar's KE does not read well either

Wasnt that game played in horrible conditions? Howling wind and wet or something like that? I remember another poster here mentioning it.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

If true i don't want us going anywhere near Rayner...if his endurance really is that bad he won't have the impact expected of him at AFL level where the running demands and pace of the game are much higher than in the TAC.

If after what would have been years of dedication to reach the AFL he still has such poor endurance, it would suggest his base is naturally very low and it would be very difficult for him to improve it by much...will never be an AFL midfielder.

Rayner will still be a very good player. All the U18 boffins don't have him going at No.1 for no reason. For me, the issue is we need genuine mids, and more specifically, a couple of quality inside mids a lot more than a HFF/cameo-mid. Irrespective of how he tests at the combine, he's unlikely to end up at the Blues.

Agree. To be clearer, i see Worpel as 30+ and have all year, and Parrish as a rookie type at best.

TBH, the only real criticisms I have of Worpel is that:

1. He doesn't have a second position you can use him in when he's not on the ball. They tried him at HF & HB at various times during the Carnival, where he failed to exert any influence. So its the midfield or the bench at this stage for Worpel.
2. Will need to become more team-orientated at AFL level rather than trying to do everything himself, which he can be guilty of occasionally.

Trust me on this TW, Worpel's determination, work ethic, and an insatiable appetite for the contest will see him succeed at the next level where many kids with more talent will fall by the wayside. Those 3 qualities right there can't be taught.....they've either got them or they haven't. Once you add consistency of performance and application to that list, I see him as having a far better chance of succeeding at AFL level than Stephenson. Talent on its own will only get you so far.

SPP was originally seen as a Top 5 Pick & slid to 18, because everyone said his kicking was dodgy. Try finding someone to say a bad word about him now. If Worpel does indeed go at 30+ in 2 years time we'll all be looking back saying, "How the **** did that happen???"

 

[The Smoking Gun]

And Rayner has 3-4 weeks of no footy matches.

Needs to be putting in the running sessions in this time, if not his running testing won't be good.

• He injures his shoulder and cannot do the endurance testing at draft camp

I'm not anti-Rayner guys. He's worked very hard to ensure he's the best footy player he can be. No one would be more aware of his own short-comings than Rayner himself. I just don't see any plausible way he ends up at the Blues if he tests average or better in the endurance areas of the Combine.

 

[TerryWallet]

TBH, the only real criticisms I have of Worpel is that:

1. He doesn't have a second position you can use him in when he's not on the ball. They tried him at HF & HB at various times during the Carnival, where he failed to exert any influence. So its the midfield or the bench at this stage for Worpel.
2. Will need to become more team-orientated at AFL level rather than trying to do everything himself, which he can be guilty of occasionally.

Trust me on this TW, Worpel's determination, work ethic, and an insatiable appetite for the contest will see him succeed at the next level where many kids with more talent will fall by the wayside. Those 3 qualities right there can't be taught.....they've either got them or they haven't. Once you add consistency of performance and application to that list, I see him as having a far better chance of succeeding at AFL level than Stephenson. Talent on its own will only get you so far.

SPP was originally seen as a Top 5 Pick & slid to 18, because everyone said his kicking was dodgy. Try finding someone to say a bad word about him now. If Worpel does indeed go at 30+ in 2 years time we'll all be looking back saying, "How the **** did that happen???"

Firstly, i'll put the rider on this by saying i hate "exampling" of players because people(not you personally, just generally) take it too literally...but....

....To be honest, you just described Sam Kerridge again. I'm not saying Worpel is undraftable, but my projection of him is very meat and potatoes at AFL level. A depth player. But as i said, who knows, he could be the next Rory Sloane if he is that rare beast. I just see him as fully developed from an early age, limited in ability, and low in scope.

And i'm a fan of Stephenson.

So we have a couple of differences there lol. Although my thoughts have matched up pretty well with most of your other opinions posted here. Everyone sees differences here and there.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I'm not anti-Rayner guys. He's worked very hard to ensure he's the best footy player he can be. No one would be more aware of his own short-comings than Rayner himself. I just don't see any plausible way he ends up at the Blues if he tests average or better in the endurance areas of the Combine.

What do you mean by that post? Are you saying he will be gone before pick 3 if he tests well for endurance?

 

[BlueRenaissance]

As you all discuss the pick 3 options with gusto, it just feels great to have trust in SoS. It also helps that we have a need for a decent sized midfielder and there are a couple of options that fit the bill...each with a slightly different characteristic.

For so long I had no faith at all in Wayne Hughes. SoS will pick the right midfielder for us at pick 3.

Would like Carlton to trade for a temporary inside mid too. Other than that, i'm patient enough to wait as Carlton youngsters develop.

 

[LanceRomance]

As you all discuss the pick 3 options with gusto, it just feels great to have trust in SoS. It also helps that we have a need for a decent sized midfielder and there are a couple of options that fit the bill...each with a slightly different characteristic.

For so long I had no faith at all in Wayne Hughes. SoS will pick the right midfielder for us at pick 3.

Would like Carlton to trade for a temporary inside mid too. Other than that, i'm patient enough to wait as Carlton youngsters develop.

Leading in to the draft the mods collect the best posts from this thread and send them to SOS who is said to be influenced by this collective - much like Rogers.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Leading in to the draft the mods collect the best posts from this thread and send them to SOS who is said to be influenced by this collective - much like Rogers.

lol.

 

[Space Cadet]

I would be insanely upset, Kelly is an out and out gun and it is a known what he can do at AFL level. You take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Thats true but it's not a one for one trade. From the little I've seen, Rayner reminds me of an 18 year Fyfe or Martin. Looks as impressive as anyone we've drafted recently.
I still want Kelly though as he is the safer, proven choice but Rayner would be very exciting.

Edit: just reiterating I've only watched some highlight vids