2017 Draft thread

[pauldrc]

At the moment there's no consensus number one.

Being a draft nut, I read a fair bit from a lot of draft followers. Depending on who you read and listen to, Darcy Fogarty (SA), Luke Davies-Uniacke, Rayner, Jarrod Brander and even Jaidyn Stephenson are all in the mix for #1.

At the moment I personally have as a two horse race in Fogarty and LDU.

Remember last year McCluggage was rated #1 by most draft observers, but ended going at 3.

I really like LDU.

Hard question to answer ATM I know, but who do think might suit us better if we get/keep pick 1??

 

[jjami15]

Then most difficult thing as BF draft fans is that visions is extremely limited and we go on others opinions. Personally I'm reserving my judgement until the national champs when some game will be televised and there will be more info about these players from the more avid draft watchers who will go these games and also the likes of Twomey and co.

 

[13Beast]

Stephenson, Fogarty and Rayner all sound the goods. I'm avoiding LDU, as he hinted at wanting to play for a big Melbourne club in an article recently....warning bells.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Reading the interview with Fogarty he would be my first choice for pick 1

 

[briztoon]

Then most difficult thing as BF draft fans is that visions is extremely limited and we go on others opinions. Personally I'm reserving my judgement until the national champs when some game will be televised and there will be more info about these players from the more avid draft watchers who will go these games and also the likes of Twomey and co.

What jjmami said.

Stephenson, Fogarty and Rayner all sound the goods. I'm avoiding LDU, as he hinted at wanting to play for a big Melbourne club in an article recently....warning bells.

To be fair, that article was from 2015, asked Twomey on twitter, linking the article, and he replied he didn't believe LDU would be a flight risk if drafted.

 

[lionshine]

From early reports Fogarty was pretty average in the first game of the U18 Carnival against WA today. Finished with 12 disposals and 2 goals playing in the midfield.

 

[SizeMatters]

Was big on Fogarty but starting to change my mind. Been thinking... when was the last time South Australia has produced a gun player? Even their high draft picks have become average players at best.

Here's a link to all South Australian footballers in the AFL...
http://www.portlincolntimes.com.au/...south-australian-afl-players-in-2017/?cs=2452

Suffice to say not a lot of elite talent there and reading over the names you realise that quite a few are top 10 picks.

 

[briztoon]

From early reports Fogarty was pretty average in the first game of the U18 Carnival against WA today. Finished with 12 disposals and 2 goals playing in the midfield.

Yeah, read a few of the reports. He's had one good game in the SANFL, other than that, he's had a really quiet season.

Really keen to follow tomorrows game. Hoping LDU has a monster as he's been the standout performer in the early season, albeit in a strong school footy comp.

 

[jjami15]

Early days but with no absolute standout at pick 1 I would be ok with doing what we did last year by moving back a couple to acquire another pick. The more talent we get as quick as possible will help our cause. It also helps seeing the likes of Berry and McCluggage doing ok and being long term players for us.

 

[John_Proctor]

^ I was looking at options for that today.

Something like 1 and 44 for 4 amd 8 from saints (3362 points for 3585 points)

Then 14 for 28, 32 from Gold Coast (1161 points for 1261 points)

We end up with picks 4,8,19,28,32. Instead of 1,14,19,44

As of today 4 and 8 likely precede ballenden being bid on, 19 is enough to match any bid from pick 11.

Say we had 5 list spots. So we get 4,8,ballenden 28 and 32 instead of 1, 14 or 19 with the other matching ballenden and 44, 72.

I think you also have more freedom to go needs based at 4/8 where as at 1 if a key forward is clear number 1 you kind of have to go with best talent.

Clearly all dependent on how the talent develops, ballenden might have a monster championships and move back up to top 5 contention.

 

[spotthedog1]

^ I was looking at options for that today.

Something like 1 and 44 for 4 amd 8 from saints (3362 points for 3585 points)

Then 14 for 28, 32 from Gold Coast (1161 points for 1261 points)

We end up with picks 4,8,19,28,32. Instead of 1,14,19,44

As of today 4 and 8 likely precede ballenden being bid on, 19 is enough to match any bid from pick 11.

Say we had 5 list spots. So we get 4,8,ballenden 28 and 32 instead of 1, 14 or 19 with the other matching ballenden and 44, 72.

I think you also have more freedom to go needs based at 4/8 where as at 1 if a key forward is clear number 1 you kind of have to go with best talent.

Clearly all dependent on how the talent develops, ballenden might have a monster championships and move back up to top 5 contention.

In my experience, our academy players are overhyped in their junior years. Keays, Allison and Conway/Tickner (cant remember which was which) all supposed to be top 10 picks and slipped a long way in their draft year. Reckon the same will happen this year with Ballenden. In which case, I'd prefer pick 14 to 2 second rounders.

 

[Carlos Danger]

^ I was looking at options for that today.

Something like 1 and 44 for 4 amd 8 from saints (3362 points for 3585 points)

Then 14 for 28, 32 from Gold Coast (1161 points for 1261 points)

We end up with picks 4,8,19,28,32. Instead of 1,14,19,44

As of today 4 and 8 likely precede ballenden being bid on, 19 is enough to match any bid from pick 11.

Say we had 5 list spots. So we get 4,8,ballenden 28 and 32 instead of 1, 14 or 19 with the other matching ballenden and 44, 72.

I think you also have more freedom to go needs based at 4/8 where as at 1 if a key forward is clear number 1 you kind of have to go with best talent.

Clearly all dependent on how the talent develops, ballenden might have a monster championships and move back up to top 5 contention.

Not sure the saints will do a pick upgrade deal. They're one of the few teams with key tall depth. Coll, Carl, rich, haw are the ones desperate. 3 won't have the picks to keep us high enough in the order & Carlton if they have pick 2 will prob gamble that we overlook any tall talent for the best midfielder.

Not sure we will get the circumstances to pull off another deal like last year.

 

[scoman]

^ I was looking at options for that today.

Something like 1 and 44 for 4 amd 8 from saints (3362 points for 3585 points)

Then 14 for 28, 32 from Gold Coast (1161 points for 1261 points)

We end up with picks 4,8,19,28,32. Instead of 1,14,19,44

As of today 4 and 8 likely precede ballenden being bid on, 19 is enough to match any bid from pick 11.

Say we had 5 list spots. So we get 4,8,ballenden 28 and 32 instead of 1, 14 or 19 with the other matching ballenden and 44, 72.

I think you also have more freedom to go needs based at 4/8 where as at 1 if a key forward is clear number 1 you kind of have to go with best talent.

Clearly all dependent on how the talent develops, ballenden might have a monster championships and move back up to top 5 contention.

Think we might have to do better than #1 and #44 to get #4 and #8 from the Saints, regardless of the points value although I certainly like the idea.

It is looking like it will be a top 10 dominated by talls this year, so that should see some interest coming for our pick #1. Then again if none of those highly rated talls separate themselves from the pack the interest might fade.

Thinking about which clubs might have multiple first and I came up with:

Carlton - Currently have pick #2 and may have a very late first if Gibbs is traded to Adelaide. Might then consider a swap of #2 and #16 for our #1 and #19? Maybe our #19 gets pushed back a couple of spots due to F.A and Carlton think we are going to take the payer they want.

St Kilda - Currently #4 and #8. Definitely worth trying to get those picks, but at what cost? Would the saints be desperate enough to get the #1? They are still likely to get a very good player at #4, maybe even their first choice.

Richmond - Currently two mid to late picks. Not enough for pick #1. However if Dusty leaving forces a trade or delivers a decent compo pick, Richmond might come looking for #1.

Freemantle - Similar justification to Richmond. A Fyfe move might spice things up here.

G.W.S - No first at the moment but you know they will have a couple before the trade period ends. Maybe they demand pick #1 for Kelly and another very low pick for Hooper. The other clubs would then have to try and involve us in the deal.

Regardless it wouldn't surprise if we let it be known that pick #1 is up for grabs.

 

[mpal6]

Not sure the saints will do a pick upgrade deal. They're one of the few teams with key tall depth. Coll, Carl, rich, haw are the ones desperate. 3 won't have the picks to keep us high enough in the order & Carlton if they have pick 2 will prob gamble that we overlook any tall talent for the best midfielder.

Not sure we will get the circumstances to pull off another deal like last year.

Good point about the clubs that are desperate but not having the multiple picks. However the first rounders may come and land collectively at GWS depending on whose leaving. GWS would like going 2 for 1, top it up with Himmelberg may be and take pick 1 + future second off us.

 

[mpal6]

G.W.S - No first at the moment but you know they will have a couple before the trade period ends. Maybe they demand pick #1 for Kelly and another very low pick for Hooper. The other clubs would then have to try and involve us in the deal.

Regardless it wouldn't surprise if we let it be known that pick #1 is up for grabs.

Yep, that's it. I do get nervous whenever I read the Josh Kelly trade thread though.

Articles that keep pointing out Paul Roos made a mistake trading pick 2 out for 2 good players. *gulp*. I understand our situation is different with retention dynamics, but trading away pick 1 and that in turn landing a Kelly type talent would be hard to watch.

 

[briztoon]

Think we might have to do better than #1 and #44 to get #4 and #8 from the Saints, regardless of the points value although I certainly like the idea.

It is looking like it will be a top 10 dominated by talls this year, so that should see some interest coming for our pick #1. Then again if none of those highly rated talls separate themselves from the pack the interest might fade.

Thinking about which clubs might have multiple first and I came up with:

Carlton - Currently have pick #2 and may have a very late first if Gibbs is traded to Adelaide. Might then consider a swap of #2 and #16 for our #1 and #19? Maybe our #19 gets pushed back a couple of spots due to F.A and Carlton think we are going to take the payer they want.

St Kilda - Currently #4 and #8. Definitely worth trying to get those picks, but at what cost? Would the saints be desperate enough to get the #1? They are still likely to get a very good player at #4, maybe even their first choice.

Richmond - Currently two mid to late picks. Not enough for pick #1. However if Dusty leaving forces a trade or delivers a decent compo pick, Richmond might come looking for #1.

Freemantle - Similar justification to Richmond. A Fyfe move might spice things up here.

G.W.S - No first at the moment but you know they will have a couple before the trade period ends. Maybe they demand pick #1 for Kelly and another very low pick for Hooper. The other clubs would then have to try and involve us in the deal.

Regardless it wouldn't surprise if we let it be known that pick #1 is up for grabs.

It is no longer looking like a top 10 dominated by talks.

That was very much the talk coming in to the season. But now Cal Twomey, Brett Anderson and most of the BF draft watchers all say it's looking like a top end and first round dominated by mids.

If Will Sutherland does not nominate for AFL and the draft, there might not be a pure KPF drafted in the first round.

 

[briztoon]

Oops, except for Connor Ballenden.

 

[jackess]

^ I was looking at options for that today.

Something like 1 and 44 for 4 amd 8 from saints (3362 points for 3585 points)

Then 14 for 28, 32 from Gold Coast (1161 points for 1261 points)

We end up with picks 4,8,19,28,32. Instead of 1,14,19,44

As of today 4 and 8 likely precede ballenden being bid on, 19 is enough to match any bid from pick 11.

Say we had 5 list spots. So we get 4,8,ballenden 28 and 32 instead of 1, 14 or 19 with the other matching ballenden and 44, 72.

I think you also have more freedom to go needs based at 4/8 where as at 1 if a key forward is clear number 1 you kind of have to go with best talent.

Clearly all dependent on how the talent develops, ballenden might have a monster championships and move back up to top 5 contention.

In what world would the Saints do that?

 

[John_Proctor]

Glad to have generated discussion. At this point my examples are academic as all the picks are based on current ladder positions and anything could happen there from team performance and then other trades.

They were examples of semi sensible trades. Probably best bet is to see what gws end up with from their likely mix of trades.

Also as I said depends on who is consensus #1. If it's a midfielder I'd hold pick 1. If it's a kpp I'd be inclined to trade down and get a couple of mids. And very dependent on ballenden if he looks like sliding down to late first round or beyond then we've got less reason to trade.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Think we might have to do better than #1 and #44 to get #4 and #8 from the Saints, regardless of the points value although I certainly like the idea.

It is looking like it will be a top 10 dominated by talls this year, so that should see some interest coming for our pick #1. Then again if none of those highly rated talls separate themselves from the pack the interest might fade.

Thinking about which clubs might have multiple first and I came up with:

Carlton - Currently have pick #2 and may have a very late first if Gibbs is traded to Adelaide. Might then consider a swap of #2 and #16 for our #1 and #19? Maybe our #19 gets pushed back a couple of spots due to F.A and Carlton think we are going to take the payer they want.

St Kilda - Currently #4 and #8. Definitely worth trying to get those picks, but at what cost? Would the saints be desperate enough to get the #1? They are still likely to get a very good player at #4, maybe even their first choice.

Richmond - Currently two mid to late picks. Not enough for pick #1. However if Dusty leaving forces a trade or delivers a decent compo pick, Richmond might come looking for #1.

Freemantle - Similar justification to Richmond. A Fyfe move might spice things up here.

G.W.S - No first at the moment but you know they will have a couple before the trade period ends. Maybe they demand pick #1 for Kelly and another very low pick for Hooper. The other clubs would then have to try and involve us in the deal.

Regardless it wouldn't surprise if we let it be known that pick #1 is up for grabs.

Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds, the key for another successful offseason for us is to get value, one way or another out of Ports first and our second.

Value could be trading one for an established young player (unlikely considering the caliber of players we've attracted lately. ) Another way would be creating two picks prior to Ballendens likely bid, been suggested heavily then matching with a later bid on Ballenden.

I personally dont like the idea of potentillay moving pick 1, i think to get value we'd need another top 5 pick back, with the teams currently holding those picks I don't see any incentive for them to make a move like that.

Something that may work thou, is were the team rates the depth and would be willing to downgrade ~pick10 for Ports First and our Second. We've seen the Bulldogs do this in 2015 getting Collins and Dunkley, Port last year getting Marshall and SPP. We'd be making sure the Port pick is active and getting decent change towards matching Ballenden.

Melbourne seem to have the high end talent and might look to move their first, Stkilda could with similar with their first also. We got a few different options no doubt we will look to explore them come the off season.

 

[John_Proctor]

Re the saints, there was an article the other day that they have a good level of talent but not a carry the team on their back star. IF they saw that sort of star at pick 1 (in a complimentary role to their team) they may be inclined to trade. Of course if that leve of player is available we'd probably want to grab them ourselves.

I think our difference is we still need to accumulate a depth of talent before worrying about which 1 is going to take us over the line single hadnedly in a close game.

 

[scoman]

Anyone seen much of Adam Sambano from NT? He has been selected in the Allies squad for the U18's even though he has turned 20 already. I remeber him from watching a couple of NEAFL games. Playes forward and is a pretty handy mark as well. 184cm 79kg according to his bio on NT Thunder site. Commentators usually get very excited when he gets involved, bit like when Eddie Betts or Cyril get near the footy in the AFL.

I dont think he is playing in todays game for the Allies. Would he be worth a late pick or rookie for us, parriculalry with our shortage of small forwards?

 

[Roylion]

Given that we have Port Adelaide's first round pick, I think I prefer to wait to see where they finish on the ladder before proposing pick trade scenarios.

At this stage we pick the best player at #1, see where Ballenden is bid on (hopefully after we use Port Adelaide's pick) and then use subsequent picks and points to match the Ballenden bid.

As such, I find myself barracking against Port Adelaide no matter who they play. Even Collingwood. Well done Essendon!

 

[royboys4eva]

Anyone seen much of Adam Sambano from NT? He has been selected in the Allies squad for the U18's even though he has turned 20 already. I remeber him from watching a couple of NEAFL games. Playes forward and is a pretty handy mark as well. 184cm 79kg according to his bio on NT Thunder site. Commentators usually get very excited when he gets involved, bit like when Eddie Betts or Cyril get near the footy in the AFL.

I dont think he is playing in todays game for the Allies. Would he be worth a late pick or rookie for us, parriculalry with our shortage of small forwards?

I'm pretty sure Sambono only weighs 69kg. Only been playing for five years. Super exciting talent but could be a couple years in reserves building his body up and developing his game. Then of course is the issue that he comes from remote area of the NT. Would be a huge step for the lad to live interstate. Looks every bit like a late selection/ rookie pick where if it doesn't work you haven't given up much and if he does turn out to be a star your recruiting team look like geniuses.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Glad to have generated discussion. At this point my examples are academic as all the picks are based on current ladder positions and anything could happen there from team performance and then other trades.

They were examples of semi sensible trades. Probably best bet is to see what gws end up with from their likely mix of trades.

Also as I said depends on who is consensus #1. If it's a midfielder I'd hold pick 1. If it's a kpp I'd be inclined to trade down and get a couple of mids. And very dependent on ballenden if he looks like sliding down to late first round or beyond then we've got less reason to trade.

Yeah, all very hard til the order & the trade scenarios play out. Although seems all the big movers seem more likely to stay than earlier in the year. Plus there's always 1 or 2 trades that shoe up end of year out of nowhere.

Plus the PP looks less likely than it did this time yesterday.

I think we should just identify who we want as our first choice in the draft & take that player. If we can deal 1 and still get them fine, but I wouldn't be taking any risks based on predicting what other clubs are gonna do. One surprise bid on ballenden & all our best laid plans might make us look like idiots