Lawrence Angwin
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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3
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To get the opinions of more the patient draft watchers as opposed to the more impatient week to week type fans.
Would it be interesting to try to take the big bust/reward gamble this year with our Pick 3?
Take a team with big ambition and immediate NEED/HOPE for a good year next year and try to take advantage of them. I've always thought that has been a Hawthorn blueprint (to identify Clubs to take advantage of at the right time). Let's say we identify that Club as Collingwood.
I'm usually not a buyer of the oft used "wow, look at next years draft crop" spiel, but it seems patently obvious that next years top end picks look absolutely outstanding compared to most years and especially this years. So Pick 3 next year is worth a lot more than Pick 3 this year.
Sooooo.....what would we think about trading Pick 3 to Collingwood( or North) for their 1st rounder next year. It is a risk/reward type deal for both sides of the deal, but it might be a chance to take advantage of a "needy" Club who might think they can finish higher than they might.
The grand plan (for a hopefully patient club that has built a beautiful base so far...us) is to trade Gibbs for some draft presence this year, absorb another year of a lowish ladder position next year and hopefully hit the 2018 draft with 2 Top 5'ish picks who project to be really elite.
Say we trade Pick 3 to a Collingwood or a North who NEED and THINK they will finish higher but are a big chance not to, for their 2018 first. If the gamble pays big divs we swap Pick 3 this year for a Top 5 Pick next year. If it pays medium divs we swap Pick 3 this year for Pick 5-8 next year. If Pies or North do a Richmond like recovery we are stuffed lol.
But my theory is that a Pick 8 next year looks equivalent to a Pick 3 this year. So we wouldn't lose much there. But if the Pies or North fail and we get 2 Top 5'ers next year....it could be Premiership making.
That ended up a longer thought bubble than i envisaged. Anyone think it makes sense?
Would it be interesting to try to take the big bust/reward gamble this year with our Pick 3?
Take a team with big ambition and immediate NEED/HOPE for a good year next year and try to take advantage of them. I've always thought that has been a Hawthorn blueprint (to identify Clubs to take advantage of at the right time). Let's say we identify that Club as Collingwood.
I'm usually not a buyer of the oft used "wow, look at next years draft crop" spiel, but it seems patently obvious that next years top end picks look absolutely outstanding compared to most years and especially this years. So Pick 3 next year is worth a lot more than Pick 3 this year.
Sooooo.....what would we think about trading Pick 3 to Collingwood( or North) for their 1st rounder next year. It is a risk/reward type deal for both sides of the deal, but it might be a chance to take advantage of a "needy" Club who might think they can finish higher than they might.
The grand plan (for a hopefully patient club that has built a beautiful base so far...us) is to trade Gibbs for some draft presence this year, absorb another year of a lowish ladder position next year and hopefully hit the 2018 draft with 2 Top 5'ish picks who project to be really elite.
Say we trade Pick 3 to a Collingwood or a North who NEED and THINK they will finish higher but are a big chance not to, for their 2018 first. If the gamble pays big divs we swap Pick 3 this year for a Top 5 Pick next year. If it pays medium divs we swap Pick 3 this year for Pick 5-8 next year. If Pies or North do a Richmond like recovery we are stuffed lol.
But my theory is that a Pick 8 next year looks equivalent to a Pick 3 this year. So we wouldn't lose much there. But if the Pies or North fail and we get 2 Top 5'ers next year....it could be Premiership making.
That ended up a longer thought bubble than i envisaged. Anyone think it makes sense?
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- Jun 18, 2007
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No, just NO!!
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
The knock on this guy is supposedly the gap between his best and his worst, and they have persisted with him for years because his best is very good. If it's a fitness/injury issue, we should probably steer clear.
He's a tad slow for today's game, but he is a clever player with and around the footy. If he can get his work rate consistently up, you get a ready-made inside mid.
To be fair, the trades were bringing players in while downgrading pick 17, so it was actually a decent proposal.
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No. would consider trading in to next years 1st again .. say in Gibbs deal, wouldnt be giving up 3 this year unless it's a Kelly deal
Hey it was Gibbs for #10, L.Partington & J.Atley thank you very much... oh and pick #85
Why the hell did the mod move my post here. I explained why i posted it in the "draft Pick 3" thread and it is clearly about THE DRAFT and the DRAFTS PROSPECTS and Pick 3, and not list management.
The Old Dark Navy's
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Osmosis?
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People were moaning in much the same manner when Matty Wright was taken.
Port have Wingard, Gray x2, Neale and Impey in there...Matt White, Young and Ah Chee are all handy forward flankers that could play a role, all are strong, quick and Young IMO has good room to grow.
"Goddess" - Moderator
- #335
Because it belongs in list management.
You've thrown up trade scenarios in your post.
The Draft Discussion thread is not set up for trade scenarios but purely to discuss potential draftees as stated in Harks OP:-
This thread is not to cut across List Management, but just to discuss potential draftees. Youtube videos welcome.
You weren't sure which thread to post in:-
So if a longtime poster clearly identifies why he posted it in the appropriate thread, why move it? fair dinkum
It is not about trading players at all. It is about the relative worth of our Pick 3 as against the players in next years draft. It is purely about the merit of the prospects in the next 2 drafts and nothing about List Management.
I wanted the opinions of the draft watchers. Which, again, was explained.
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- #337
So if a longtime poster clearly identifies why he posted it in the appropriate thread, why move it? fair dinkum
It is not about trading players at all. It is about the relative worth of our Pick 3 as against the players in next years draft. It is purely about the merit of the prospects in the next 2 drafts and nothing about List Management.
I wanted the opinions of the draft watchers. Which, again, was explained.
Maybe you should appoint a special Mod for the Draft and List Management threads who actually enjoy those aspects. They seem to constantly annoy you.
Your post wasn't deleted. It was moved to the correct thread.
Not sure why you are carrying on about it and you are the one that seems annoyed.
I'll copy the post over to the Draft Discussion thread and will also leave it in this thread.
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- #338
damn, page 14 already? i had to check out the last one as i couldn't keep up...
We live for the off season.....
Although the odd win would be nice!
Although the odd win would be nice!
Yeah on 1st impressions you'd think Young ticks all the boxes. He did have a good year in 2016 but either side of that bog ordinary. Put up for trade in 2015 but no bites. 2017 gets dropped from a dysfunctional forward line. I watch all the Power games at Adelaide Oval in a dispassionate manner and my opinion of Young reflects that of the Power supporters which is not that complimentary. Plus we already have one too many man buns running around. Ah Chee is a way better option. White will be 31 in April.
I wonder what the issue with Jono Freeman was? Just not good enough? Among 5 delisted by the Lions... definitely a decent size. Josh Clayton and Jarrad Jansen are interesting too.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-09-12/lions-axe-free-agent-among-five-delistings
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-09-12/lions-axe-free-agent-among-five-delistings
- Feb 11, 2015
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Josh Clayton is someone in paticular I have been keeping my eye on. A F/S pick taken around the fourth or fifth round, but nevertheless is someone I'd consider as a rookie or DFA.
Not sure i was suggesting we pick up any of them, it's just interesting who gets delisted from certain clubs. I guess sometimes they are just not the right fit or something?
Jensen is bigger than i realised 192 cm/94 kg, though hasn't been able to make it at two clubs, so its saying something.
Bit surprised by Freeman. Looked a real talent as a KPF but has been injured.
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- Feb 11, 2015
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Never accused you of doing so. Just admitting of my interest. Yes they are bottom-end players from the wooden spooners, but I personally see at least one of them being a possible short-term patch player to allow room for developing potential long-term kids.
Clayton is only 21 and wouldn't need to give up anything for him. I'd take a look at him if I were SOS, but it's not super important.
The Great Ian
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It's a reasonable theory to consider trading this years pick 3 for a pick in next years stronger draft, but given the practical difficulty in selling the idea to members/sponsors I'm not sure any list manager would have the nerve.
I kinda agree.
Kane Lucas says Hi
Pretty sure a lot of people thought that of Jones 3 months ago
Hi Kane.
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