Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[rp84]

Didnt Palmer sign a new 2 year deal with GWS ending in 2017?

http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/video/2015-09-02/palmer-united-rhys-palmer-resigns

Yes, we were right.

He is GAWN

 

[therubbernub]

http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/video/2015-09-02/palmer-united-rhys-palmer-resigns

Yes, we were right.

He is GAWN

Flush the dump

 

[Burgers45]

If we manage to swap boekhorst for balic I'll eat my own poo.

How gross?

 

[Sector 7G]

http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/video/2015-09-02/palmer-united-rhys-palmer-resigns

Yes, we were right.

He is GAWN

Except that he may only have agreed to be moved on if he got an extra year. GWS can't just novate his contract to CFC , they would need to agree a new contract.

 

[rp84]

Except that he may only have agreed to be moved on if he got an extra year. GWS can't just novate his contract to CFC , they would need to agree a new contract.

are you sure?

I thought they almost always stay on the same contract. Could be wrong though

 

[Jimmae]

Except that he may only have agreed to be moved on if he got an extra year. GWS can't just novate his contract to CFC , they would need to agree a new contract.

You're right about the first part, wrong about the second part.

According to an article that's been linked a few times in this thread, he's contracted until the end of 2018, but he'll be on a reduced salary next year.

 

[rp84]

Except that he may only have agreed to be moved on if he got an extra year. GWS can't just novate his contract to CFC , they would need to agree a new contract.

http://www.aflplayers.com.au/article/palmer-blues-in-a-similar-position-to-giants/

No mention of an extra year anywhere

A lot of other sports, in particular NBA, the team taking the player takes their pre-agreed contract. I think that regularly happens in the AFL, except when the team wants to lock that player down for longer. I doubt Billy or Rhys got an extra year for coming. They were hoping for job security in a young team. Hasn't worked out for them.

 

[rp84]

You're right about the first part, wrong about the second part.

According to an article that's been linked a few times in this thread, he's contracted until the end of 2018, but he'll be on a reduced salary next year.

I cant find any such article...where is it? Footywire has Billy and Rhys as 'unconfirmed;

 

[LordLucifer]

Except that he may only have agreed to be moved on if he got an extra year. GWS can't just novate his contract to CFC , they would need to agree a new contract.

100% correct.

 

[Sector 7G]

http://www.aflplayers.com.au/article/palmer-blues-in-a-similar-position-to-giants/

No mention of an extra year anywhere

A lot of other sports, in particular NBA, the team taking the player takes their pre-agreed contract. I think that regularly happens in the AFL, except when the team wants to lock that player down for longer. I doubt Billy or Rhys got an extra year for coming. They were hoping for job security in a young team. Hasn't worked out for them.

No mention of anything about the contract he signed at Carlton either way.

Unlike in US sports, Clubs in the AFL don't have the right to on-trade players against their will. While Rhys may have just come for extra playing opportunity generally players would look for a longer contract term as well. Guess we will find out at the end of the year because Palmer has been extremely disappointing in the 2s and shouldn't survive if he doesn't have a contract (though I wouldn't be against paying him out if he did have another year). Should be racking up 30+ every week.

 

[rp84]

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/teams/carlton-blues/ -- this article says not contracted, but Billy is for 2018

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-11/has-the-blues-giant-recruiting-punt-paid-off ---this one says he is contracted for 2018

 

[rp84]

Speaking of disappointing, would think Sumner is a big chance to be delisted. Was so hopeful after a few flashes last year, but has been below putrid this year

 

[Malifice]

On the one hand you have the people that believe that we should be able to fill our list up with lynch's , kelly's, betts's, rance's et al. And on the other hand you have those that think that you stop once you get around 15 good to great players.
The former are unrealistic as there will never be a salary cap big enough, and to most modern days supporters, this is pretty obvious and not contestable.
The later are busy building there ideal paper sides and thinking that good depth players that can play a role are fine as they will be lifted by the rest of the team in the top 15 players.
But it is stating the obvious, however that there are injuries and player fatigue to account for. So instead of needing just 15 good to great players , the figure is closer to 20-25. Then the decision making comes down to "where do we need that depth of good to very good players? " Again, obviously -it is the midfield- because the midfield forms the largest group of players in the team structure , and because of the amount of wear and tear that midfielders subject their body to. Todays running game dictates that there are 6-7 midfielders of quality in your team -of which at least 4 need to be close to elite if you want a chance at the premiership. But you can extend the numbers to 10-11 quality midfielders to allow for attrition during the year. It is however virtually impossible IMO to extend the numbers of near elite midfielders beyond 4 due to salary cap balance. If 1 or more of any clubs top midfielders goes down for the season then it is nearly impossible to progress far in the finals. When a club like carlton with its young developing midfield, loses a player of the calibre of Cripps (Murphy last year) it becomes even harder for the rest of the players to pick up the slack. In our case 2 of our top 4 are now out for the season when Ed is taken into account.
I know its arguable that our top 4 mids: Cripps, Murphy, Gibbs, Ed are near elite but it is instructive to look at our results against highly rated teams with these 4 up and running eg GWS Swans, crows and demons. We can compete with the best teams on our day, which tells me that our top midfielders are nearly good enough. Surely adding Kelly would put the issue beyond doubt that out top 4 mids were more that competitive.
If we go with say 11 quality mids being required (4 elite)
1 Murphy
2 Gibbs
3 Cripps
4 Kelly
5 Ed
6 Kreuzer
7 Cuningham
8 Fisher
9 SPS
10 ?
11 ?

So if we take the view that we get Kelly (no certainty) and we retain Gibbs (no certainty) then, we are ok for elite midfield talent next year. What needs to be remembered of course is that those near elite mids are required to get you to top 4 only if you have the depth of good mids below them. I see that Cuningham . Fisher , SPS have what it takes and will certainly have a quantum leap in output with another preseason behind them. I am quietly confident that we can include them in 7,8 and 9 positions. Which leaves us 2 mids short but only of the level of "good" not elite.
The question is with regard to 10 and 11. Are there players on our list that are capable of moving into those positions, as long as they have the quality above them to allow them to perform a role. So now we get back to whether players of the ilk such as the following

Kerridge. Is showing signs . Has stepped up during ed and Cripps absence. Obviously not at their level, but possibly good enough for position 10
Graham. Not sure. But worth giving another year to see

Or can the following defenders be repurposed
Docherty. Can play midfield, but is the cost to the defensive structure too great?
Byrne. hard as a cats head. i would love to see him trialed as a Mid
Williamson. Definitely has the poise and disposal to take a step into the midfield

Or Forwards
Charlie. Like Docherty, definitely capable, but is the opportunity cost too high?
Wright. Probably needed in the forward line to kick goals
Lamb. I have liked his ability to spot targets going into our F50
Thomas . can provide the running

Others
Boekhorst. maybe
Polson. maybe

All of the above mentioned players have claims for survival on our list as midfield contributors . There are some that dont. I feel that those not mentioned will be delisted (not protected)

Buckley
Armfield
Gorringe
Smedts
Jaksch
Palmer
JGM
Galucci

I think you need to stop looking at it 1 year at a time and look at it from the POV of 'what does the list look like in 2020 onwards'.

Realistically we have 3 drafts and trade periods to get the list on order. Trading our 1st this year for Kelly, Gibbs for a future 1st and picking up a FA over that period (Dylan Shiel) means we should be fine in the guts (Cripps, Kelly, Shiel, 2 x 1sts from 2018, 1 x 1st in 2019).

That only leaves us with a Ruckman and KPF to go. Rucks are generally traded in. We need to look at prizing a 60 goal a season KPF from somewhere over the next few years to work in tandem with McKay.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Cmon mate 6 touches a game is a great return on investment .....

Thats over 1 a quarter mate ..... what more do you want?

 

[rp84]

Cmon mate 6 touches a game is a great return on investment .....

Thats over 1 a quarter mate ..... what more do you want?

I reckon I could accidentally get more touches

 

[Neadsy83]

Didnt Palmer sign a new 2 year deal with GWS ending in 2017?

I was working off the attached list, not sure if it's 100% accurate. Looks close though!

 

[Beer n Skittles]

We really need a quick small forward or two to crumb & apply defensive pressure. The ball rebounds too easily and too dangerously.
I suspect we haven't really seen the full extent of Bolton's gameplan because we can't ever lock the ball in the forward line. If we did the defenders would press up the ground rather than holding position well back.

I don't think Sumner is up to it. Pickett could be the answer or could be a wasted talent. SPS should be a midfielder. Fisher might be the best bet, but needs to work on his crumbing and will probably spend time in the midfield too.

There's a lot of speculative small forwards on our list that haven't worked out. It's time to turn them over & try and unearth some more with late or rookie picks.

 

[rp84]

We really need a quick small forward or two to crumb & apply defensive pressure. The ball rebounds too easily and too dangerously.
I suspect we haven't really seen the full extent of Bolton's gameplan because we can't ever lock the ball in the forward line. If we did the defenders would press up the ground rather than holding position well back.

I don't think Sumner is up to it. Pickett could be the answer or could be a wasted talent. SPS should be a midfielder. Fisher might be the best bet, but needs to work on his crumbing and will probably spend time in the midfield too.

There's a lot of speculative small forwards on our list that haven't worked out. It's time to turn them over & try and unearth some more with late or rookie picks.

Correct. Would keep Lebois for one more year. Need to rookie one new small forward, IMO.

 

[TalkItUp]

We really need a quick small forward or two to crumb & apply defensive pressure. The ball rebounds too easily and too dangerously.
I suspect we haven't really seen the full extent of Bolton's gameplan because we can't ever lock the ball in the forward line. If we did the defenders would press up the ground rather than holding position well back.

I don't think Sumner is up to it. Pickett could be the answer or could be a wasted talent. SPS should be a midfielder. Fisher might be the best bet, but needs to work on his crumbing and will probably spend time in the midfield too.

There's a lot of speculative small forwards on our list that haven't worked out. It's time to turn them over & try and unearth some more with late or rookie picks.

i agree, sumner is not upto the standard, and i definately want to see sps in the middle of the ground,
i have high hopes for pickett, but needs a big pre season,
i would like to see us target devon smith, i think hed be a very nice fit
very much agree that boltons gameplan will only reach its potential once we have the forward pressure, but also the delivery to the forwards

 

[ferrisb]

If we manage to swap boekhorst for balic I'll eat my own poo.

VISY Industries does not endorse this as an acceptable form of recycling...

 

[Azul]

Re: small forward wce lecras for a year?

 

[therubbernub]

I think you need to stop looking at it 1 year at a time and look at it from the POV of 'what does the list look like in 2020 onwards'.

Realistically we have 3 drafts and trade periods to get the list on order. Trading our 1st this year for Kelly, Gibbs for a future 1st and picking up a FA over that period (Dylan Shiel) means we should be fine in the guts (Cripps, Kelly, Shiel, 2 x 1sts from 2018, 1 x 1st in 2019).

That only leaves us with a Ruckman and KPF to go. Rucks are generally traded in. We need to look at prizing a 60 goal a season KPF from somewhere over the next few years to work in tandem with McKay.

I agree to a point. But like it or not our clubs finances depend on memberships . Memberships consist of hard core bolted on members and those that are "swing voters" . The swing voters come in when there is hope, and although you and I and many others on here can see the progress, I think its naive to think that the swing voters can. BB and SOS need to be mindful of the fact that potential members will respond to results and progress up the ladder next year would seem to be imperative to gaining new members.

 

[TalkItUp]

I think you need to stop looking at it 1 year at a time and look at it from the POV of 'what does the list look like in 2020 onwards'.

Realistically we have 3 drafts and trade periods to get the list on order. Trading our 1st this year for Kelly, Gibbs for a future 1st and picking up a FA over that period (Dylan Shiel) means we should be fine in the guts (Cripps, Kelly, Shiel, 2 x 1sts from 2018, 1 x 1st in 2019).

That only leaves us with a Ruckman and KPF to go. Rucks are generally traded in. We need to look at prizing a 60 goal a season KPF from somewhere over the next few years to work in tandem with McKay.

love the look of that midfield!! can see charlie becoming that 60 goal a year key forward you talk of, think hes the perfect modern day key forward type

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Correct. Would keep Lebois for one more year. Need to rookie one new small forward, IMO.

Forgot about LeBois, from what was said on here he showed a bit in the VFL earlier in the year.

If the draft is as shallow as bigfooty says, maybe a couple of speculative small forward picks are in order.

 

[Keyza]

We didn't lose them (Apart from Waite & Bell), we either let them go or moved them on, through poor People/List Management

Betts - Wanted slightly more money, $50K a year I believe and we said no, then gave Daisy much more than the contract Eddie signed at the Crows
Sauce - Wanted more opportunities, after we traded for Warnock
Robinson & Garlett - Were moved on, we know the reasons why
Grigg - Swap Collins for him, because Ratten didn't rate him

That is a lot different than players wanting out of Brisbane

These players still left the club and most asked to be traded. We wanted to keep Jacobs, he was offered a contract. We didnt want to lose Grigg, he was offered a contract and the club thought he was going to re-sign. Garlett refused to negotiate from mid year and was always going to leave.
Robbo a different story as was Laidler. Yarran was poached by Richmond. Henderson wanted out, Tuohy wasn't happy with the contract he was offered. Last year Gibbs asked to be traded and this year Casboult will probably leave.
That is a lot of very good players who have departed and many not by our choice.