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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II
- Thread starter BrisbaneCFC
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Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
I said I expect there to be 34 names on the senior list that I am comfortable about a 22 being formed out of next year, with growth potential in the remainder. There will be challenges and set backs, but every club faces those.
Now, who do you like at the moment? Paint a picture of what you think the top 10 might be like. I'm not going to revisit this in 12 months and smack you over the head with it.
You can't be so adamant about dumping pick 2 this year over pick 8 next year without some fuzzy idea of the situation.
So you are seriously saying we will finish 10th next year? That we will go past 6 to 7 sides next year?
Jim think you have already answered your own question from one of your posts.
Personally i don't rate LDU in the top 5 at the moment. But lf you add the following guys to this year's draft, they would be considered potential top 10 players
King brothers
Rankine
Lukosius
Rozee
Blakey
Hill
Joyce
Caldwell
Hately
Walsh
Thomas
That is why i would give up pick 2 this year rather than next
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Thank you, now people can go look at videos and begin to form their own opinions.
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Again, I don't think it matters as much for stacking talent in areas of the ground you're covered in and again we have no idea where we may finish next year, against a likely top 2 (being ladder, bottom 2) pick this year.
If we have set our sights on Lynch, along with taking up BSilvagni next year and are thrilled with the prospect of HMcKay, where does a 'King' fit in?
I don't think it's as clear cut as the thrill of next years draft may seem to be.
If we had the choice of what we'd offer up and believe we can milk the talent available in the now, I'd take it and worry about next year, next year.
It's a rolling motion as next years draft is almost always better than the one before it........and then......what if '19 is better than '18?
I think you just take things to market and you have an additional 12 months to fashion things out to suit.
And that is the whole point of your initial question, there is no right or wrong, its all about opinion.
We could all make a case for whether it is this year or next.
IMO, if we trade in Kelly, we could use a combination of picks from this year and next. But I am confident that SOS will retain a presence in the first round this year and next
If Kelly is to come on board, Gibbs doesn't care to leave and we won't trade Murphy, that's unlikely to come about.
Can't see any manoeuvring where that would be possible.
Let's see what SOS conjures
- Oct 23, 2016
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I would be keen to let this years go if it alone got Kelly. However I know this years class is alleged to be weaker than next years, but I would be interested in trading next years 1st rounder to perhaps st kilda for their first 2 this year. Not sure they'd bite but given the quality of KPs available in the top few of the 2018 draft, would StK be interested as this is what they'd need going forward( would they think we'd finish low enough to get them at the pointy end) and furthermore who would we draft in this year with the approx pick 8/9 from the aints.( Hawks)
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- Aug 22, 2014
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I reckon we can go past a few teams next year.
NM will drop right down.
GC will lose some more experience.
WC have had their midfield gutted.
Collingwood are in no-mans land with limited improvement in their list.
Hawthorn will lose some key senior players.
Freo don't have much scope to improve.
St Kilda are still ordinary.
We won't necessarily jump them all, but a 10-12th finish wouldn't be beyond us.
WC midfield gutted? I am sure they were travelling okay without Mitchell last year
Dockers and Saints might be ordinary as you say, but have already blooded kids ahead of us.
Hawks are still a chance to make finals
At this stage the clear bottom 4 for next year are, Lions, North, GC and us
The trade period could change my opinion
Anyway, I admire your optimism
Cripps has shown he is an absolute jet.
Kelly has shown he is an absolute jet.
Murphy has shown he is an absolute jet except tackling.
Curnow an elite tagger and decent accumulator.
SPS will be a great contributor as 5th banana. Cuningham too who knows.
If healthy our midfield will be tons better but its all dependent on Kelly. Miss him and really its Cripps and kids with murphy and curnow there as (excellent) placeholders.
Kelly has shown he is an absolute jet.
Murphy has shown he is an absolute jet except tackling.
Curnow an elite tagger and decent accumulator.
SPS will be a great contributor as 5th banana. Cuningham too who knows.
If healthy our midfield will be tons better but its all dependent on Kelly. Miss him and really its Cripps and kids with murphy and curnow there as (excellent) placeholders.
- Oct 23, 2016
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Gibbs?
I could see us finishing above Fremantle, they have won 4 games by less than a goal and have a weak percentage, they also average the same points per game. Highly unlikely we finish above 14th which would give us pick 5 at worst. Then we are talking one of Walsh, Rankine, Hill etc. I'd prefer to keep that pick and if we need to trade next season we can use our 2019 first.
Leaving for Adelaide on a jet.
- Aug 22, 2014
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I genuinely think that West Coast could do a NM after losing Mitchell and Priddis this year. They may handle it ok, but my gut feel is they struggle.
Saints lack top end quality. Unless they address that I see them hovering around 10-14th.
Freo same as the saints, though they've got some good senior players. We should be able to get within a game or two of them at least, and a softer draw for us could see us sneak ahead of them.
Hawks are losing Hodge and Gibson, and a few more senior guys will start to taper off next year. We should be thereabouts with them.
As I said, we may not pass them all, but should be in that mix. Especially if we retain Gibbs and gain Kelly.
Charlie = elite mid
- Oct 4, 2015
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Going forward, if Gibbs and Murphy both stay we will struggle to keep bringing in additional young elite talent.
Your idea to trade Gibbs to Crows and then couple the 1st round pick we get from them with Murphy for Kelly won't work imo. I wish I could see it happening that would be great for us going forward, I think the best case scenario actually because we'd essentially be turning Murphy and Gibbs into Kelly and Rayner but I just can't see that happening.
GWS will reject that offer and will not budge on it. I also don't think Kelly would be too impressed with us if we don't offer our first pick.
Unfortunately, we can't have our cake and eat it too. We will have to weigh up whether bringing in Kelly will be the better option than bringing in Rayner. It sucks but it's the reality.
I think the former will be more beneficial, last year I was heavily against trading our first pick for Marchbank, Prestia or O'Meara and I'm glad we didn't. This year I'm leaning more towards bringing Kelly in over taking another 18 year old. Cripps needs some support from an elite young player. Murphy is near the end and Gibbs is up in the air whether he stays or goes.
If I were in Bolts+SOS's place I'd focus on the following strategy over the next 3 years of trades/drafts:
1 - Bring in Kelly for pick #1/2
2 - Apply for a priority pick (We are entitled to it and don't care one bit about the 'pity or pride' argument against it)
3 - Focus on obtaining an additional 2018 top 10 pick (preferably top 7)
4 - Take those 2 top 10 picks to 2018 draft and use them
5 - Bring Shiel in via FA.
Achieving 3/4 will be the toughest but it's important. I think our best chance would be to trade Gibbs to Crows and get #9 back and then couple that with #18 to another club for their future first. GC may be interested. It leaves us BARE in this year's draft but patience is a virtue. With the loss of Gibbs and no early draft picks coming in this year, even the addition of Kelly won't lift us from bottom 2-3. 2018 will be another year of suffering but it will be the last. I've said it many times that the kpp talent is highly rated next year meaning we will get a great shot at getting the best mids in the draft. That's why it's important. Pick #9 this year won't get us a mid as talented as a pick #9 next year.
This year we won't have a pick till #36. Spend it on a ruckman.
Overall, this gives us Kelly, 2 top 10 picks from 2018 draft, Shiel and our top pick from the 2019 draft (likely another top 10)
With Cripps and SPS already in the midfield as young elite talent, adding Kelly, Shiel and 3 top 10 picks along with Cuningham, Fisher and Polson for depth will make us unstoppable from 2020 onward for the next decade.
Definte
Agreee with you Arrow, I'd much rather give up this year's pick 1 or 2,
Because 2018 top 6 or 7 would be candidates for this year pick 1.
It will be a superb draft. Go Baggers
Agreee with you Arrow, I'd much rather give up this year's pick 1 or 2,
Because 2018 top 6 or 7 would be candidates for this year pick 1.
It will be a superb draft. Go Baggers
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Nope too much the downhill skier for mine.................does not have Gibbs hardness and desire!!!
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Top 2 is still very valuable, especially as GWS want Rayner apparently..............
- Apr 20, 2006
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I'm not disagreeing but I remember similar things being said about Worpel and Hayes.
For me the only player I'm really excited about this year is Rayner so unless we get pick 1 then I hope we trade it
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