Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[dazdoggy]

Sounds cool but how the hell would we be in a position to trade for Lynch when he is under contract and with our picks? Would need to sell the country not just the farm.

I agree very hard to get him 1.6 million and a lot of lost picks

 

[Beer n Skittles]

2 200cmish forwards is 1 too many. Bringing in Lynch seems like giving up on McKay

 

[Blue Baggers]

Do you you really want me to go through every grand final and tell you how crap some midfielders played ala Mitchell against Freo.
It's a fact 3 of the last 4 premiers have had a gun KPF and if GWS win this year then then it will be 4 of the last 5 and if Adelaide win it without an elite midfield then what?

I have not said we dont need a gun KPF, I said we need gun mids! Simply pointing out that we would be a much better side with 2 first round mids than palming those picks off to GC for a forward (Which the AFL wont let happen anyway) so the conversation is pretty much a waste of time. We already have the foundations of a decent forward line had Harry not missed 12 months through injury.

 

[james Dean]

2 200cmish forwards is 1 too many. Bringing in Lynch seems like giving up on McKay

That's like saying bringing in Kelly would mean giving up on Fisher.. You can never have too much of a good thing.

Besides what is the likelihood of McKay getting anywhere near Lynch's level?

 

[Azul]

Lynch? Don't need him and certainly not as a restricted free agent where we sacrifice 1 or more high draft selections.

We took 2 elite forwards in McKay and Curnow, it'd be a shame if one of them didn't turn out a triple premiership player.

Talls are set - I'd rather we didn't jump at shadows and focussed on needs - small defender, small forward, ruck, on-ballers.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

That's like saying bringing in Kelly would mean giving up on Fisher..

No it's not. They couldn't be farther apart. Best 22 should have around 12 mids. Terrible strawman attempt.

You can never have too much of a good thing

That's a pretty terrible saying. Sandilands is a great footballer but 22 of him would be easily beaten by an U18s side.

Besides what is the likelihood of McKay getting anywhere near Lynch's level?

Not all that likely. But it's highly likely he'll be at least a good footballer

 

[kjr8]

Lynch? Don't need him and certainly not as a restricted free agent where we sacrifice 1 or more high draft selections.

We took 2 elite forwards in McKay and Curnow, it'd be a shame if one of them didn't turn out a triple premiership player.

Talls are set - I'd rather we didn't jump at shadows and focussed on needs - small defender, small forward, ruck, on-ballers.

while i hope they both turn out elite.. going early on big H since we've only seen him for 2 games. Here's hoping though.

 

[Arr0w]

Lynch? Don't need him and certainly not as a restricted free agent where we sacrifice 1 or more high draft selections.

We took 2 elite forwards in McKay and Curnow, it'd be a shame if one of them didn't turn out a triple premiership player.

Talls are set - I'd rather we didn't jump at shadows and focussed on needs - small defender, small forward, ruck, on-ballers.

Lynch will not cost us a pick, if we decide to make a huge offer next year.

Our KPF's are not set yet, despite having better options, than the last 5 years

I am not suggesting we target Lynch, but we would be negligent not to explore all options when trying to entice elite players

 

[ShanDog]

Key Forwards are bloody important - elite ones even more so... REGARDLESS OF STATS!


The Analogy

In NBA, there's a new trend to describe a player's "gravity" because spacing is so important.

Generally a player's "gravity" essentially means how good they are at "catch-and-shoot", which means wherever they run on the floor, their primary defender has to follow and the team defence is disrupted as they need to make sure he doesn't get open.

Steph Curry is the player who is now recognised as arguably the greatest 3-point shooter of all time. Wherever he runs, he's like a magnet shifting the gaze, feet positioning and awareness of the whole defending team. He often won't get stats for making his cuts and running around, but he's making it a helluva lot easier for his teammates.


The Application to AFL

To a large extent, the same can be seen in AFL. An elite Key Forward like Josh Kennedy not only attracts an elite defender, but often the spare man, and whenever he runs through elaborate schemes and screens that the WCE forwardline draws up, it creates havoc and confusion for the defenders.

In a grand final, it's perfectly plausible to see a guy like Tom Lynch only kick 2 goals but have a large impact on the game. Like another guy pointed out, Gunston benefiting from the Roughhead "gravity" is a perfect example of influence and importance without having a "stat".

That's the funny thing about team sports...

 

[Azul]

Lynch will not cost us a pick, if we decide to make a huge offer next year.

What if GC exercise a trade instead of compensation?

i.e. let's say we and they each finish bottom 3. Instead of receiving pick 3, they demand our first (which might be the same pick in the event we finish 1 rung above them) PLUS an additional pick or player. If you're not comfortable overpaying for Kelly, I'm not sure why you'd do the same for Lynch.

 

[Metalcrusher]

They are funny?

 

[Arr0w]

What if GC exercise a trade instead of compensation?

i.e. let's say we and they each finish bottom 3. Instead of receiving pick 3, they demand our first (which might be the same pick in the event we finish 1 rung above them) PLUS an additional pick or player. If you're not comfortable overpaying for Kelly, I'm not sure why you'd do the same for Lynch.

It is not up to GC to exercise a trade, that would be an option we bring to the table if we believe GC are able to match our offer. That being the case I doubt SOS will pay overs if we are not ready for a player like Lynch

 

[Funk]

Maybe i'm just naive...but i'm surprised to learn we've made an offer to Lynch well over a year out from next years trade period when we intend to sign him.

I mean i expect clubs to talk to players from a long way out but to have an offer of substance with $$$ and contract length terms already surprises me.

Our club actually has a List Management plan for the first time!!

SOS is doing exactly what he is paid to do.

I.e. develop a plan to have the strongest possible list for solid tilt at a flag in 2020-2025.

I am not at all surprised by this - you can't just bring in players like Lynch at the last minute because you think it's a good idea. A lot of ducks need to be lined up for this to happen.

And SOS is very good at lining up ducks!!!

 

[Azul]

It is not up to GC to exercise a trade, that would be an option we bring to the table if we believe GC are able to match our offer.

Well the $1.6x10^6 sounds excessive. Gold Coast wouldn't have salary cap issues any more than we do given their players keep leaving, so it's not out of the question they do a Dangerfield like trade.

A tall forward shouldn't be a priority if we have faith in the SOS brothers, Harry and Charlie.

I doubt SOS will pay overs if we are not ready for a player like Lynch

Agreed. It's not that I don't trust the rumour, I just don't see it as a pressing need. Checkbook signings aren't going to improve our 'bottom 6'.

 

[HARKER]

Maybe i'm just naive...but i'm surprised to learn we've made an offer to Lynch well over a year out from next years trade period when we intend to sign him.
I mean i expect clubs to talk to players from a long way out but to have an offer of substance with $$$ and contract length terms already surprises me.

It shouldn't really, as one can't wait for things to happen....you have to make them happen.
Show 'love' early on and one can endear themselves to it.

Our recruiting team should know about the 15-16 year olds, that may interest them in 2-3 years time.
The List Manager has to be all over every clubs' lists, to not only look at bringing a Kelly to the club when the time is right, but to recognize players that aren't performing elsewhere, but would do so at our club.

It's been only two years, but in that time SOS and his crew have done a magnificent job.
We've drafted the right players....recruited the right players at the right price...and picked up a couple of cheapies along the way (Wright & Kerridge)
We really shouldn't count the players that came along as salary dumps, but even then, we have Lamb currently holding his own.

There has only been one slight mis-step from my point of view; What were we thinking when we took a chance on Gorringe?

 

[LanceRomance]

It shouldn't really, as one can't wait for things to happen....you have to make them happen.
Show 'love' early on and one can endear themselves to it.

Our recruiting team should know about the 15-16 year olds, that may interest them in 2-3 years time.

You have to plant the seed

 

[G-TRAIN07]

2 200cmish forwards is 1 too many. Bringing in Lynch seems like giving up on McKay

Not really giving up . Curnow plays up on the wings and midfield. Mckay lead up chf. Lynch ff easy problem solved

 

[Jimmae]

2 200cmish forwards is 1 too many. Bringing in Lynch seems like giving up on McKay

That's like saying bringing in Kelly would mean giving up on Fisher.. You can never have too much of a good thing.

Besides what is the likelihood of McKay getting anywhere near Lynch's level?

Decent actually, given they both have a level of athleticism and skill rarely seen in a player their size. Remember, Lynch was a raw, skinny kid taken at pick 11, just like McKay.





http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/picks-of-the-draft-tom-lynch-20101107-17j3d.html

TOM LYNCH

17, 199cm, 91kg

RUNNING AND JUMPING
Lynch was the slowest player over 20 metres at draft camp (3.31 seconds), but he reached level 14.6 in a fantastic beep test and backed up in the time trial (10.41 minutes) and the repeat sprint test (24.52 seconds for six consecutive 30-metre sprints), showing off an endurance that will only improve as he settles into a full-time training environment. His arms (88.2 centimetres) and hand span (25cm) were both in the top 12 measured at the draft combine.

Side note:

Which players in the draft pool have impressed you this year?

Jed Lamb. He can do anything and his kicking is some of the best you will see.

There has only been one slight mis-step from my point of view; What were we thinking when we took a chance on Gorringe?

That we could turn him into a quality forward if he could stay fit... and he didn't stay fit. It really is that simple given his skillset.

 

[Soapy V]

A good KPF's contribution needs to be measured by more than just the goals he kicks. Without Roughy the Hawks wouldn't have won those premierships. A lot of Gunstans goals come from the work and space Roughhead creates.

Played mostly through the midfield and even as extra in defence in those big games.

 

[Soapy V]

Key Forwards are bloody important - elite ones even more so... REGARDLESS OF STATS!

Very good players are important all over the ground. IMO the modern game is so dominated by mobile running players and zones that you can get away without gun forwards if you have a dominant midfield that works both ways. You can't win flags with a dominant forward line and a weak midfield.

I'd love to see the game played the way it was in the 80's & 90's with big forwards as targets but it doesn't happen that way anymore. Unfortunately

 

[BJuddy]

Looks like Bailey Dale is off the cards
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-17/one-more-year-for-hardrunning-dog-bailey-dale

 

[Keyza]

Any news on Cuningham? Seems strange that he is the only young player yet to re-sign.

 

[StandByyourMan]

Lynch? Don't need him and certainly not as a restricted free agent where we sacrifice 1 or more high draft selections.

We took 2 elite forwards in McKay and Curnow, it'd be a shame if one of them didn't turn out a triple premiership player.

Talls are set - I'd rather we didn't jump at shadows and focussed on needs - small defender, small forward, ruck, on-ballers.

this.

 

[RudyBlue]

Given MS3's latest rumour, it's interesting to think about how we could trade without currency from Gibbs.

Pick 1 should get Kelly outright as it appears they are pretty keen on Rayner.

SOS will push for pick 2 outright, but we probably have to throw in a swap of picks (say 2018 2nds or 2017 2nds if Casboult nets us band 3).

If we can lure Kelly and Hopper, I think pick 1 and pick ~20 would be ideal but GWS would probably want 2017/18 1st rounders (maybe something back).

If we have pick 2, we could angle for something like 2, 20 and a 2018 2nd for the pair. Potentially 20 and a 2018 2nd could be packaged into another 1st rounder via another club.

Interesting times.

 

[HARKER]

If a first had to be let go, would posters here prefer it to be this years or next?