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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

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Just want to point out that while everyone goes on about Tom Lynch the last couple of flags have been won by teams without a key forward. You need options, it's not the 90's any more. Would rather mids where we actually get more than 30 inside 50's a game
But what if we add to our options ... Harry, Charlie, Jack and Lynch, Wright and Pickett, and perhaps BSOS will be half decent too ...
 
This Lynch rumour, whilst I acknowledge Two Planks' credibility, has maybe a feel of a test balloon.

As a hypothetical, if I'm Tom's manager, it's not beyond the realms of possibility I'd get the 'story' out there as a market test/influencer and see the reactions.

Again, Two Planks has the runs on the board, but $1.6 million per year over that term...
... is audacious and just might work.

SOS has been working our salary cap down since he got to CFC. Players like Levi and even Kreuzer had their last contracts squeezed. We dropped out of chasing Carlisle, Steele and other players as competition pushed their $$$ price up. I am sure SOS is "right sizing" all our contracts as part of a strategy to allow us to get a big fish (or two) using our excess salary cap as a weapon.

Then it is up to Bolts to make sure the "culture" is not lost. We previously have had Barassi and Judd on very big contracts compared to the list, - and they have lead from the front.
 

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... is audacious and just might work.

SOS has been working our salary cap down since he got to CFC. Players like Levi and even Kreuzer had their last contracts squeezed. We dropped out of chasing Carlisle, Steele and other players as competition pushed their $$$ price up. I am sure SOS is "right sizing" all our contracts as part of a strategy to allow us to get a big fish (or two) using our excess salary cap as a weapon.

Then it is up to Bolts to make sure the "culture" is not lost. We previously have had Barassi and Judd on very big contracts compared to the list, - and they have lead from the front.
The thing with Judd was he came to a basket case club and as the best player in the comp and looked like become one of the all time greats. Tom Lynch is not even comparable to what Judd was.
 
Just want to point out that while everyone goes on about Tom Lynch the last couple of flags have been won by teams without a key forward. You need options, it's not the 90's any more. Would rather mids where we actually get more than 30 inside 50's a game
3 of the last 4 flags have been won with a gun KPF and. Bulldogs are the outlier not the rule
 
Just want to point out that while everyone goes on about Tom Lynch the last couple of flags have been won by teams without a key forward. You need options, it's not the 90's any more. Would rather mids where we actually get more than 30 inside 50's a game

Don't rate Roughie?
While Boyd isn't a gun he was BOG.
Exactly, and let's not forget that the Dogs injected Marcus Adams into that side and elevated Hamling's game late in the season.

Good dynamic talls and good dynamic clearance players are what you chase after with picks and cash.
 
Gun KPF? Roughy? Kicked 1 goal in the GF? Gun KPF Kennedy losing GF 0 goals! You win flags in the midfield! Pretty hard winning a flag if you can't get the ball inside 50.
Yeah because the defence coverage and two-way running in the midfield isn't at its absolute zenith on grand final day...

It might not show up on the scoreboard sometimes, but these guys have to make so much space for their team mates on the day. Or fly for the game-saving mark at the other end.

Or does football radically change and they run the ball into goal once a year?

EDIT: lol, you brought up Buddy & the Swans, a team that is built around a great midfield, one gun forward, then stoppage setups and playing off the counter attack with a bunch of aging stars and kids.

That they got that far last year just proves you wrong... that they are doing it again? Doubly so.
 
Gun KPF? Roughy? Kicked 1 goal in the GF? Gun KPF Kennedy losing GF 0 goals! You win flags in the midfield! Pretty hard winning a flag if you can't get the ball inside 50.
2015 26 d 9m 1.0g
2014 13d 5m 5.1g
2014 20d 4m 2.3g

Always made a big contribution. How would it have changed the structure without him? Left a massive hole in the side in 2016 when he was out.
 
Will Thomas fo around next season?

Daisy is no certainty to play on next year, but at this stage I'd say he most likely will.

Has played some reasonable football at times this year - particularly once they got rid of his trigger clause - and if we're again shedding experience at the end of the year it's not a bad idea to give him one more season as a depth option. Sets a pretty good example for the kids.
 

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Maybe i'm just naive...but i'm surprised to learn we've made an offer to Lynch well over a year out from next years trade period when we intend to sign him.

I mean i expect clubs to talk to players from a long way out but to have an offer of substance with $$$ and contract length terms already surprises me.

Sometimes clubs make the offer early because the player gets hungry and ends up requesting trade at the end of this year instead of next.
 
2015 26 d 9m 1.0g
2014 13d 5m 5.1g
2014 20d 4m 2.3g

Always made a big contribution. How would it have changed the structure without him? Left a massive hole in the side in 2016 when he was out.
Missing the point, the midfield got the ball inside 50
19 more times than the Eagles
20 more times than the swans
Hawks still have Roughy? What's changed? Midfield!

My point is Tom Lynch may be the best tall forward in the game but where are Gold Coast?
We have the best contested mark in the game and where are we?
North have Ben Brown who was leading the Coleman where are North?

4 of the top 5 rated players in the game are mids from teams in the top 5, I'll let you guys work out what we need.
 
A good KPF's contribution needs to be measured by more than just the goals he kicks. Without Roughy the Hawks wouldn't of won those premierships. A lot of Gunstans goals come from the work and space Roughhead creates.

This

The Dogs were an exception to the rule last year. The Tigers also think it will be a successful trend, but in their case, it will fail come finals.

Not sure why people think that rewriting over 100 years of the game will ever work.

KPF's these days should not be judged by goals alone. Bringing the ball to ground, stopping the opposition intercept marking, a marking option from a long kick from a R50, chop out ruck work etc

They don't have to be stars or even elite
 
One things for sure imo if we havent added the necessary pieces to our midfield and/or the current young stars we have running through there havent lived up to the lofty expectations by end of 2019 we wont be adding Lynch .
Lot to play out before that consideration . No harm in posturing for his signature in the meantime however .
 
Missing the point, the midfield got the ball inside 50
19 more times than the Eagles
20 more times than the swans
Hawks still have Roughy? What's changed? Midfield!

My point is Tom Lynch may be the best tall forward in the game but where are Gold Coast?
We have the best contested mark in the game and where are we?
North have Ben Brown who was leading the Coleman where are North?

4 of the top 5 rated players in the game are mids from teams in the top 5, I'll let you guys work out what we need.
Simplistic way of looking at things.
No one is saying a good field isn't important, but to say you don't need good KPF is wrong, especially with mids being easier to acquire.

Hawks have had massive injuries to go with their aging list resulting in a drop off from last year. They did go out and get a gun mid so their midfield isn't much different to last year. One Mitchell in one out and Sam played plenty of time across HB last year

Caz is a good contested mark but a poor forward.
Would North be a worse side if a gun mid replaced Brown in their side? Probably.

Bulldogs got the ball inside 50 a heap more than GWS last week but couldn't score while Patton was clunking marks and kicking goals. Last year in the GF Boyd gave them a target. Would they have been better chasing another mid. IMO no.

Trying to develop a premiership list not one to just make finals like the Tigers
 

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We haven't had a gun Key Forward since Fev left. It's been nearly a decade, it is the biggest hole in our list and I think most recruiters would admit it is harder to find a star forward than a couple of star midfielders.

If I had a choice between Josh Kelly and T.Lynch, I'd take Lynch every day of the week. That being said I can't see either of them joining us and think we just need to continue to draft well and develop internally.
 
Key Forwards are bloody important - elite ones even more so... REGARDLESS OF STATS!


The Analogy

In NBA, there's a new trend to describe a player's "gravity" because spacing is so important.

Generally a player's "gravity" essentially means how good they are at "catch-and-shoot", which means wherever they run on the floor, their primary defender has to follow and the team defence is disrupted as they need to make sure he doesn't get open.

Steph Curry is the player who is now recognised as arguably the greatest 3-point shooter of all time. Wherever he runs, he's like a magnet shifting the gaze, feet positioning and awareness of the whole defending team. He often won't get stats for making his cuts and running around, but he's making it a helluva lot easier for his teammates.


The Application to AFL

To a large extent, the same can be seen in AFL. An elite Key Forward like Josh Kennedy not only attracts an elite defender, but often the spare man, and whenever he runs through elaborate schemes and screens that the WCE forwardline draws up, it creates havoc and confusion for the defenders.

In a grand final, it's perfectly plausible to see a guy like Tom Lynch only kick 2 goals but have a large impact on the game. Like another guy pointed out, Gunston benefiting from the Roughhead "gravity" is a perfect example of influence and importance without having a "stat".
 
Sometimes clubs make the offer early because the player gets hungry and ends up requesting trade at the end of this year instead of next.

Sounds cool but how the hell would we be in a position to trade for Lynch when he is under contract and with our picks? Would need to sell the country not just the farm.
 
Gun KPF? Roughy? Kicked 1 goal in the GF? Gun KPF Kennedy losing GF 0 goals! You win flags in the midfield! Pretty hard winning a flag if you can't get the ball inside 50.
Do you you really want me to go through every grand final and tell you how crap some midfielders played ala Mitchell against Freo.
It's a fact 3 of the last 4 premiers have had a gun KPF and if GWS win this year then then it will be 4 of the last 5 and if Adelaide win it without an elite midfield then what?
 
Simplistic way of looking at things.
No one is saying a good field isn't important, but to say you don't need good KPF is wrong, especially with mids being easier to acquire.

Hawks have had massive injuries to go with their aging list resulting in a drop off from last year. They did go out and get a gun mid so their midfield isn't much different to last year. One Mitchell in one out and Sam played plenty of time across HB last year

Caz is a good contested mark but a poor forward.
Would North be a worse side if a gun mid replaced Brown in their side? Probably.

Bulldogs got the ball inside 50 a heap more than GWS last week but couldn't score while Patton was clunking marks and kicking goals. Last year in the GF Boyd gave them a target. Would they have been better chasing another mid. IMO no.

Trying to develop a premiership list not one to just make finals like the Tigers

Pretty much the same as our game against West Coast.
 
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