Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[HARKER]

Brisbane: Will surge along with us
North Melbourne: will sag
West Coast: Will sag due to retirements
St.Kilda: will plateau/compete with us
Essendon:will plateau/compete with us
Richmond: will plateau or maybe fall due to being worked out.
Fremantle: will stay down
Collingwood: will improve (feck it!)
Melbourne: will plateau/compete with us
Gold Coast: will stay down due to lost players and culture

I agree with your assessment and I have felt that Collingwood will rise, but they simply can't find a way to do so.

Hawthorn? Where are they at? Hodge, Gibson & Burgoyne gone and Roughead close to last legs.
Bulldogs? They have a good squad but there certainly seems to be some internal grumblings going on.
Port Adelaide? Haven't beat a top eight team this year (West Coast?)

A lot can change pretty quickly

 

[Soapy V]

Of course it's hypothetical and it's there for consideration.
Do we think we're in a better position going forward than those clubs? I see us as being so.

I think we are in a much better position than most of those clubs. I'm just not sure it will result in more wins in 2018. 2019 I will be more confident that we will start to climb the ladder and fairly quickly. As I said a lot could well depend upon this trade draft period. Going to be fun to watch

 

[Funk]

Agreed, our youth will continue to grow and right now that is what i am looking forward too

Repeat after me Arr0w

green shoots

green shoots

green shoots.................

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I'm sure there are a few pig-headed types around that think Kelly is our savior and wouldn't care if we sold the farm for him. Someone in the comments section of an article on the AFL website suggested what we got from a trade for Gibbs plus Macreadie and/or Williamson (probably both) for Kelly and Hopper. What a reactionary trade that would be.

I must be missing something because for me Gibbs and Macreadie for Kelly and Hopper would be the biggest heist of all time

 

[Arr0w]

Repeat after me Arr0w

green shoots

green shoots

green shoots.................

That's all i see, not concerned with win/loss or ladder position next year, just the continued growth of our kids

 

[therubbernub]

I agree with your assessment and I have felt that Collingwood will rise, but they simply can't find a way to do so.

Hawthorn? Where are they at? Hodge, Gibson & Burgoyne gone and Roughead close to last legs.
Bulldogs? They have a good squad but there certainly seems to be some internal grumblings going on.
Port Adelaide? Haven't beat a top eight team this year (West Coast?)

A lot can change pretty quickly

Those ones are a bit harder I agree.

Hawks: I think will plateau. Their youngsters will consolidate and improve, but those 3/4 are big shoes to fill.
Dogs: I think will fall slightly. Their retirements will hurt
Port: they are tough to judge, on balance I think they have outperformed this year

 

[Soapy V]

I agree with your assessment and I have felt that Collingwood will rise, but they simply can't find a way to do so.

If Buckley stays as coach Collingwood won't go anywhere. (I hope he stays )
St Kilda for me have a lot of upside. Their list has a lot of genuine young talent plus great picks coming up. This year has been a real transition. Watch them next year as the kids start to take over

 

[Juddernaut08]

I must be missing something because for me Gibbs and Macreadie for Kelly and Hopper would be the biggest heist of all time

Id give all 3

 

[Arr0w]

Even at this early stage and with the 'limited' knowledge we have of what teams may look like in March '18, what are your current expectations against the following teams, next year:

Brisbane:
North Melbourne:
West Coast:
St.Kilda:
Essendon:
Richmond:
Fremantle:
Collingwood:
Melbourne:
Gold Coast:

Beat those teams alone even once and we're already looking at tenth or better.
Of course it's impossible to project how much better our squad will be after the trade period, as much as it is for any other team but here are my reasons for confidence next year;

1. Many of the games we could have/should have won, slipped away from us in the last quarter. Too many young guys tiring.
2. We seem to have a cohesive group that genuinely play as a team.
3. I feel we have a better coaching group than many of the aforementioned teams.
4. The extra year should see growth in many of our young players. Which do you see going backwards? I see the step-up far higher than for any fall.

We'll need some injury 'luck' as Port Adelaide and Richmond have had this year, but I think our finishing range is far broader than a bottom three.

If we were able to land all the rumoured talent, Kelly, Hopper, Smith, Kennedy , Balic etc, of course i would reassess our position next year. All sides have a form of growth, whether it be youth or game plan.

I have NEVER suggested we will finish dead last next year. All i have stated is that we will probably finish bottom 4, bottom 6 at best.

Wins and ladder position has nothing to do with our growth and what we are building for the future.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

If I asked how happy I am ATM with our youth I would give it a 9/10. After saying that I still don't think we are any better off then most clubs. Nearly all our kids we are basing on potential ATM and nearly all clubs have talented young players and some more then us. I think our point of difference will be our coach and that's the only reason I'm so confident in this rebuild. (Bolton is still unproven so again I'm going off potential.)
I also think our kids influence on games is exaggerated. We can realistically end up as the worst side in the competition this year and have four players make the AA squad. (Murphy, Gibbs, Doc, Kruezer) I think that shows a lot about how the rest of the team has been performing.

 

[HARKER]

If Buckley stays as coach Collingwood won't go anywhere. (I hope he stays )
St Kilda for me have a lot of upside. Their list has a lot of genuine young talent plus great picks coming up. This year has been a real transition. Watch them next year as the kids start to take over

I don't see it with The Saints.

Losing Reiwoldt & Montagna isn't going to help and not as much their output, but for on-field leadership.
The mid-field group is O.K. but without any guns who can take a game away from you.
Forward line? McCartin is mystery and Bruce can be had if you get into his head. What's after that?

I think they're a very MOR team. Just not enough guns....yet.

I'm more concerned about Essendon, actually.
They have some high picks that just haven't gelled yet and may never do so, but if they do.....; Langford, Laverde, Francis and Ridley.

 

[Soapy V]

I don't see it with The Saints.

Losing Reiwoldt & Montagna isn't going to help and not as much their output, but for on-field leadership.
The mid-field group is O.K. but without any guns who can take a game away from you.
Forward line? McCartin is mystery and Bruce can be had if you get into his head. What's after that?

I think they're a very MOR team. Just not enough guns....yet.

I'm more concerned about Essendon, actually.
They have some high picks that just haven't gelled yet and may never do so, but if they do.....; Langford, Laverde, Francis and Ridley.

I'm the opposite. I think clubs hang on to great players too long and it stifles the growth of the kids. Riewoldt & Montagna will go and I reckon others will step up and enjoy the chance to lead. Happens all the time. It's why Clarkson was happy to move on Mitchell/Lewis.

Forward line doesn't worry me at all. There is young talent but there mobile players are deep and talented. That's what wins modern football.

As for Essendon as long as Worsfold is coach I don't believe they will cause too many problems

 

[HARKER]

I'm the opposite. I think clubs hang on to great players too long and it stifles the growth of the kids. Riewoldt & Montagna will go and I reckon others will step up and enjoy the chance to lead. Happens all the time. It's why Clarkson was happy to move on Mitchell/Lewis.

Forward line doesn't worry me at all. There is young talent but there mobile players are deep and talented. That's what wins modern football.

As for Essendon as long as Worsfold is coach I don't believe they will cause too many problems

Reiwoldt was a leader that takes others with him in a similar way to Hodge.
A leader you follow on the track and listen to and aspire to, off it. Big loss for mine.

I see Essendon having the better forward line and the better back-line, overall.
Bit skinny on midfield depth now though. That's going to be their aim to rectify, this year.

 

[Soapy V]

If I asked how happy I am ATM with our youth I would give it a 9/10.

Charlie McKay Silvagni Weitering & Cuningham are about where I expected at this stage. I have been surprised and impressed with what SPS Williamson Polson Pickett Kerr Fisher Macreadie have produced this season.

Marchbank Plowman have been very positive additions as well. Sumner has been the disappointment and I had hoped for a bit more from G-Mac.

Jones improvement has been a surprise and benefit & ASOS is what we needed.

All positive. Just need to see a fit and focussed Byrne & LeBois next season.

 

[Soapy V]

Reiwoldt was a leader that takes others with him in a similar way to Hodge.
A leader you follow on the track and listen to and aspire to, off it. Big loss for mine.

Not for me. Reiwoldt has been great but his best has past. Everyone is replacable and kids need space. They will step up as will Geary Stevens Armitage etc. Hodge is an elite leader but even he realised his time was up and the kids need to establish themselves. It's where Clarkson is ahead of everyone else.

As for Essendon. Nope. Average club with average coaching and direction.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Forward line? McCartin is mystery and Bruce can be had if you get into his head. What's after that?

Membrey is better than both. Gresham will be a gun but might end up in the midfield. Weller decent, eyes are weirdly close together though. They get plenty of goals from mids too.

 

[HARKER]

Let's have a look at what our best team may look like next year (subjective)

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Pickett.

Kreuzer Cripps Murphy
Petrevski-Seton Gibbs Williamson

CCurnow Weitering Cuningham
Wright Casboult JSilvagni

ECurnow Simpson Fisher Thomas

Very confident of the following players coming on: Macreadie, Phillips, Mckay
Confident but a little less so of these coming on: Polson, LeBois, Kerr
Staple & fill players; Kerridge, Boekhorst, Sheehan

What we know:
Other than Simpson, we don't have another player whose loss we'll feel for the next three years, at least. (Not Rowe, White, ASilvagni or Thomas)
If we were to lose Gibbs or Murphy, we'll be well compensated for it. If they don't go, we have at least three years from both of them.

Midfield needs to be bolstered this year and that's what we'll be doing.
Forward line gets tended to in 2018, but more output will be wanted from JSilvagni, McKay and Weitering, when he goes back there.

Can we cover the gaps in the next two trade/draft periods? It's possible.

 

[HARKER]

Membrey is better than both. Gresham will be a gun but might end up in the midfield. Weller decent, eyes are weirdly close together though. They get plenty of goals from mids too.

Weller? Has been dropped at stages this year.
Gresham is good, but no more so than a DFA in Wright, has been for us.
Membrey? He's been O.K. but may not want to be the second key forward.
Bruce? Hot and cold.

Whichever way, I don't see a lot of upside in that group and certainly not a forward line to fear.

 

[therubbernub]

I think that shows a lot about how the rest of the team has been performing.

But it is the "rest of the team" where the greatest upside is-our youngsters have more improvement in them than probably any other side. if you add that fact, to the fact that we have been right in most matches, then I come to the conclusion that our natural improvement in "rest of team"will get us over the line in a lot of matches next year. I say this assuming that our player attitudes stays as resilient as it has been this year. This aspect can go missing - look at the dogs this year

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Weller? Has been dropped at stages this year.
Gresham is good, but no more so than a DFA in Wright, has been for us.
Membrey? He's been O.K. but may not want to be the second key forward.
Bruce? Hot and cold.

Whichever way, I don't see a lot of upside in that group and certainly not a forward line to fear.

Wright is our best forward and Gresham is 19 years old. I think he has a heap of improvement in him. They'd have high hopes for Josh Battle. Sinclair still young.
All a bit off topic though

 

[Soapy V]

Let's have a look at what our best team may look like next year (subjective)

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Pickett.

Kreuzer Cripps Murphy
Petrevski-Seton Gibbs Williamson

CCurnow Weitering Cuningham
Wright Casboult JSilvagni

ECurnow Simpson Fisher Thomas

Very confident of the following players coming on: Macreadie, Phillips, Mckay
Confident but a little less so of these coming on: Polson, LeBois, Kerr
Staple & fill players; Kerridge, Boekhorst, Sheehan

What we know:
Other than Simpson, we don't have another player whose loss we'll feel for the next three years, at least. (Not Rowe, White, ASilvagni or Thomas)
If we were to lose Gibbs or Murphy, we'll be well compensated for it. If they don't go, we have at least three years from both of them.

Midfield needs to be bolstered this year and that's what we'll be doing.
Forward line gets tended to in 2018, but more output will be wanted from JSilvagni, McKay and Weitering, when he goes back there.

Can we cover the gaps in the next two trade/draft periods? It's possible.

If Thomas is best 30 next year we haven't developed as far as I hoped. My gut feel is we will get Hopper & Balic in trade period and then pick 1 or 2 and another 4-5 picks in draft plus SOS will get some other players yet to be discussed. Casboult will go and Gibbs will stay.

My hope:

Docherty Weitering Marchbank
Byrne Jones Williamson

Kruezer Charlie Hopper
Pickett Cripps SPS

Gibbs Silvagni Cuningham
Rayner McKay Murphy

Balic Curnow Plowman Fisher

Unlucky: Simpson? (if he stays) Polson Macreadie LeBois Kerr (Very talented kids I rate) Rowe Wright Kerridge ASOS Lamb Phillips (mature options) plus another 5-6 draftees.

Depth only if kept: Smedts White Sheehan Graham Boekhurst Thomas Palmer

Midfield looks much better with depth and size. Some ball winning beats in there. Modern day goalkicking options everywhere. Run and great ball use from defence. Want to see Pickett & SPS on wings causing real damage on the outside. Can play exciting football

 

[HARKER]

Wright is our best forward and Gresham is 19 years old. I think he has a heap of improvement in him. They'd have high hopes for Josh Battle. Sinclair still young.
All a bit off topic though

At least we're talking football and viewing others is important to where we have to go.

...........but yes, it didn't start off topic but fell into being so.

 

[Lawrence Angwin]

I'm struggling to comprehend the possibility of getting Kelly (via trading) then Lynch AND Shiel through FA.

We do that and keep our first pick in 2018 draft at all costs and we will be set to take over the AFL in 2020.

The trouble is how the **** are we going to be able to keep all of these gun players? By then Charlie, SPS, Cripps, Doc etc will command more dosh as well.

I guess as the old saying goes, if it sounds to good to be true...

I Agree.

However the list management strategy that SOS seems to be implementing, in not over paying middle of the road players is definitely freeing up cap space. Low balling Tuohy and forcing him out rather than paying him $450K and willing to let Casboult go rather than paying him $550 per year is already leaving an extra $1 Mil per year than what we would have had.

Plus drastically reducing Daisy's contract if he gets one.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HARKER]

If Thomas is best 22 next year we haven't developed as far as I hoped. My gut feel is we will get Hopper & Balic in trade period and then pick 1 or 2 and another 4-5 picks in draft plus SOS will get some other players yet to be discussed. Casboult will go and Gibbs will stay.

My hope:

Docherty Weitering Marchbank
Byrne Jones Williamson

Kruezer Charlie Hopper
Pickett Cripps SPS

Gibbs Silvagni Cuningham
Rayner McKay Murphy

Balic Curnow Plowman Fisher

Unlucky: Simpson? (if he stays) Polson Macreadie LeBois Kerr (Very talented kids I rate) Rowe Wright Kerridge ASOS Lamb Phillips (mature options) plus another 5-6 draftees.

Depth only if kept: Smedts White Sheehan Graham Boekhurst Thomas Palmer

Midfield looks much better with depth and size. Some ball winning beats in there. Modern day goalkicking options everywhere. Run and great ball use from defence. Want to see Pickett & SPS on wings causing real damage on the outside. Can play exciting football

I agree of course but I just used what we currently have on hand.
The team you've put forward is possible............Very possible, but if we did end up with Hopper against Kelly, I'd like to see a mid we haven't talked about yet, end up with us.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

If Thomas is best 30 next year we haven't developed as far as I hoped. My gut feel is we will get Hopper & Balic in trade period and then pick 1 or 2 and another 4-5 picks in draft plus SOS will get some other players yet to be discussed. Casboult will go and Gibbs will stay.

My hope:

Docherty Weitering Marchbank
Byrne Jones Williamson

Kruezer Charlie Hopper
Pickett Cripps SPS

Gibbs Silvagni Cuningham
Rayner McKay Murphy

Balic Curnow Plowman Fisher

Unlucky: Simpson? (if he stays) Polson Macreadie LeBois Kerr (Very talented kids I rate) Rowe Wright Kerridge ASOS Lamb Phillips (mature options) plus another 5-6 draftees.

Depth only if kept: Smedts White Sheehan Graham Boekhurst Thomas Palmer

Midfield looks much better with depth and size. Some ball winning beats in there. Modern day goalkicking options everywhere. Run and great ball use from defence. Want to see Pickett & SPS on wings causing real damage on the outside. Can play exciting football

Not bad but would prefer Plowman in the starting 18 and sorry but cannot see a young draftee ousting our most productive forward this year in Matty Wright.