Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Arr0w]

And yet here we are, talking about Rayner at pick 1 despite some clear similarities.

Not advocating that Rayner goes number 1, but biggest difference there, Lennon has no clearance or contested possession capabilities, whereas Rayner is at the elite end

 

[Jimmae]

Not advocating that Rayner goes number 1, but biggest difference there, Lennon has no clearance or contested possession capabilities, whereas Rayner is at the elite end

Agree with you there, just doubt his capacity to keep getting around the midfield at even TAC level, let alone AFL level.

 

[Arr0w]

The rules for the Champs are built to elevate a HFF's stocks. Hopefully our recruiters are smart enough to realise this.

Incorrect, that happens in the AA AFL not AA U18. Kids selected as flankers actually played those positions

 

[Arr0w]

Agree with you there, just doubt his capacity to keep getting around the midfield at even TAC level, let alone AFL level.

You are right, he needs to build a tank. Although at the championships he rated in the top 10% for contested possessions, clearances, CP per Disposal, CLR per disposal.

Even if Rayner never reaches the elite level of endurance, but improves, he will still be very damaging around stoppages, in fact elite. Add that to his goal kicking capabilities, he is miles ahead of Lennon

 

[HARKER]

Yeah but the best thing about next year's is the beanstalks are very highly rated. Meaning with a pick 3 and 5, we could have a shot at the best mids. With this year's pick that won't happen best mids gone before we even get a pick.

Maybe, but I wouldn't be parking away 2017 so quickly, just yet. Once the noise starts coming out of how poor this draft is, the buy-in comes around very quickly and conversely when talk is of just how good next year will be.

Cripps was a reach at #13 in 2013 and you could have picked many holes in terms of what type of player he may become.
If there was 'Cripps' type in this draft......and there may be....then you take the bird in hand.

 

[Keyza]

Much depends on how close crows get to a flag - ideally they make a prelim - reality is they have a weak midfield and desperately need to improve it - I think their first pick and second pick for Gibbs and our third pick would be possible

Adelaide's second pick and our third round pick could only be a handful of places different. So effectively we let Gibbs go for a mid to late teen pick No thanks.

 

[Keyza]

Wondering people's thoughts on some moneyball type options for a couple of list holes.

Ben Lennon from the tigers. Every chance to be a dfa at the end of the year as he's out of contract and they have a glut of small/mid size forwards ahead of him. Only just turned 22 and has kicked 22 goals in 8 vfl games I believe to date.

Reilly o brien is on Adelaides list. Not sure about contract status. Could be steak knives in a Gibbs trade young ruckman who's numbers in the sanfl seem very good. Turns 22 shortly so would just be coming into physical readiness for AFL.

Ashley miles 25yrs,is dominating vfl. Has his limitations but might be worth a look if we don't land hopper to chop Cripps out as one of our few inside mids.

Wouldn't expect any stars here, but all you have some upside and could be acquired cheap/free. Worth a look?

I would take Lennon. If he came for nothing I cant see the harm.
Ben was an outstanding junior player so he has the talent. He is not quick or tall so in that in between size.
Grew up a massive Carlton supporter so you never know, a different environment and mindset might be what he needs.

 

[The Facepainter]

As apposed to selling the farm for Kelly? SOS is aggressive with this rebuild, but not stupid. Confident that we will retain a 1st round presence this year and next

I wonder whether SOS would trade our first next year for saints 2 picks this year if we could get kelly with our first this year? Would have to throw extra in as well

 

[Jimmae]

Incorrect, that happens in the AA AFL not AA U18. Kids selected as flankers actually played those positions

I'm talking about the inability to drop numbers into the D50 giving rise to leading HFs taking marks inside 50.

 

[Arr0w]

I wonder whether SOS would trade our first next year for saints 2 picks this year if we could get kelly with our first this year? Would have to throw extra in as well

All depends, Saints would probably think they are in the market for Kelly too. If not, sure they have there own plans for those picks, both of which could be in the top 10

 

[The Facepainter]

All depends, Saints would probably think they are in the market for Kelly too. If not, sure they have there own plans for those picks, both of which could be in the top 10

Just wondering whether another early pick in a top quality draft would be enough bait?

 

[Magruder]

Who Plowman?

Yep

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Maybe, but I wouldn't be parking away 2017 so quickly, just yet. Once the noise starts coming out of how poor this draft is, the buy-in comes around very quickly and conversely when talk is of just how good next year will be.

Cripps was a reach at #13 in 2013 and you could have picked many holes in terms of what type of player he may become.
If there was 'Cripps' type in this draft......and there may be....then you take the bird in hand.

Darcy Fogarty would be the Cripps type this year. But type doesn't mean he'll be as good either.

Top 3 pick this year will be a very valuable pick and in GWS's case it gets them right back into the draft. They're at the stage where they'll worry about 2018 draft when the time comes.

Hawks will back themselves to make finals in 2018. They will very likely look at 2 mid-late 1st round picks as better value than the 1 mid-late 1st round pick they see themselves getting next year.

 

[ShanDog]

Yep

Username? How long ago?

My cousin's other half went to school with him and cuts his hair from time to time when he's closer to home rather than in Melbourne. Told me he was a bit of a different sort of cat but nice guy.

 

[Jimmae]

He was posting on here for a while btw

MrPlow/Mr_Plow likes this

 

[DangerousD]

If it does end up being a 2018 pick #3 for Gibbs we will be laughing vs #15+#18 this year.

Yes and what if it's pick 8 or what if the Hawks snag another player like Burton?
Last draft had heaps of good kids picked in the 20's.
Gibbs is also staying imo

 

[Mr_Plow]

Who are you and why are you following me, MrPlow?

Why do we have the same avatar?

And why do you go for Port Adelaide?







Lennon is a nothing player, IMO.

Undersized and not athletic enough for the position he plays.

Can't do the midfield thing, makes him pretty pointless.

 

[DangerousD]

then you take the bird in hand.

If i had a $ for every time you have posted this.

 

[HARKER]

If i had a $ for every time you have posted this.

You'd have $3.00. Yoooohooooooo.

 

[Jimmae]

If i had a $ for every time you have posted this.

You'd have $3.00. Yoooohooooooo.

A penny saved...

 

[MrPlow]

Oh my god, this man is my exact double!

Who are you and why are you following me, MrPlow?

Why do we have the same avatar?

And why do you go for Port Adelaide?

View attachment 389777

Lennon is a nothing player, IMO.

Undersized and not athletic enough for the position he plays.

Can't do the midfield thing, makes him pretty pointless.

 

[Big Red is back]

Adelaide's second pick and our third round pick could only be a handful of places different. So effectively we let Gibbs go for a mid to late teen pick No thanks.

He will be 29 I am not sure we can get much more

 

[Benaly28]

Hopefully Tom Rockliff leaves the lions and goes to the crows,they won't go for Gibbs if that's the case.

 

[DangerousD]

I wonder whether SOS would trade our first next year for saints 2 picks this year if we could get kelly with our first this year? Would have to throw extra in as well

If we had picks 5 and 9 this year would you trade that for pick 6 next year?

Ridiculous

 

[DangerousD]

Hopefully Tom Rockliff leaves the lions and goes to the crows,they won't go for Gibbs if that's the case.

Why not?
They don't need to trade for rocky.