Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[G-TRAIN07]

Just need cc to get nominated to ease the crippa news

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Liam Jones resigns.

But he was just getting his mojo back...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We havent been that far off this year (caveat being its been one heck of a weird year). But if we're being honest, we've also had a (relatively) great run with injuries, we're still 3rd last and a lot of the hard work has been done by Murphy, Kruezer, Gibbs, Simpson, Wright etc - all of whom are 28+

By the time the reset is complete and the kids have had a few years in their legs playing together (and you cant underestimate the value of gelling as a group, in addtion to getting games under your belt and physically filling out) those guys are going to have one foot (if not both feet) out the door.



I would hope we would be in the eight by then, but thats about it. 2020 onwards is when we're in with a real crack.

We should be methodical and hit the draft hard this year and next year (as is the plan) and again in 2019 (filling gaps with F/A in '18 and '19).

We have at least 3-4 elite mids to go (and thats just to replace Gibbs, Murphy, Thomas, Simpson, Curnow), plus a 60+ goal KPF and a gun young ruck.

What strategy would you have for us to hit the draft hard both years and pick up Kelly as well? It just doesn't seem possible.

With Cripps out, our chances of winning games drops dramatically. We will now end up with #3 or worse. Do we trade that for Kelly or keep it?

I've been floating around the idea of trading Gibbs to the Crows for #15 and #18 (from Bris for Cameron).

Then we couple #15 + #18 -> Hawks for their 2018 1st

Without Gibbs in the middle, but Kelly as replacement, and Casboult probably leaving, we should end up with #5-#7 pick next year. With the Hawks likely to drop (Even though they'll fancy their chances to climb back up which is why I think they'll take the deal mentioned above) we're looking at another top 5 pick. Let's say #3-#4.

This year, we lose Casboult for pick #20 (Band 3 compo if we finish 3rd last). Pick #3+#20 for Kelly.

We pretty much forsake this year's draft for a better shot at next year's. Then when we get to trade period next year, we offer up our 2019 1st for another top 10 pick in 2018.

If we get Kelly this year, hit next year's draft with 3 top 10 picks and poach Shiel in 2019, then 2020-2030 will be a very fun decade.

 

[TooBlue14]

What strategy would you have for us to hit the draft hard both years and pick up Kelly as well? It just doesn't seem possible.

With Cripps out, our chances of winning games drops dramatically. We will now end up with #3 or worse. Do we trade that for Kelly or keep it?

I've been floating around the idea of trading Gibbs to the Crows for #15 and #18 (from Bris for Cameron).

Then we couple #15 + #18 -> Hawks for their 2018 1st

Without Gibbs in the middle, but Kelly as replacement, and Casboult probably leaving, we should end up with #5-#7 pick next year. With the Hawks likely to drop (Even though they'll fancy their chances to climb back up which is why I think they'll take the deal mentioned above) we're looking at another top 5 pick. Let's say #3-#4.

This year, we lose Casboult for pick #20 (Band 3 compo if we finish 3rd last). Pick #3+#20 for Kelly.

We pretty much forsake this year's draft for a better shot at next year's. Then when we get to trade period next year, we offer up our 2019 1st for another top 10 pick in 2018.

If we get Kelly this year, hit next year's draft with 3 top 10 picks and poach Shiel in 2019, then 2020-2030 will be a very fun decade.

This is a huge risk to give up two first round picks at the chance of hawthorn falling again. They could easily sit 6-10th next year or higher without much change to their list. I was an advocate for the keeping of picks 19-20 two years ago instead of giving them to dogs. We ended up with Charlie curnow which is s huge win in comparison to Dunkley (dogs would of taken at 11) and Kieran Collins (Weiterings vic def pair). Two picks better than that for a chance of being better than 11 is ridiculous. We got lucky that time, and at this stage of all players involved. It will rarely occur for one player to be better than 2.

 

[TooBlue14]

This is a huge risk to give up two first round picks at the chance of hawthorn falling again. They could easily sit 6-10th next year or higher without much change to their list. I was an advocate for the keeping of picks 19-20 two years ago instead of giving them to dogs. We ended up with Charlie curnow which is s huge win in comparison to Dunkley (dogs would of taken at 11) and Kieran Collins (Weiterings vic def pair). Two picks better than that for a chance of being better than 11 is ridiculous. We got lucky that time, and at this stage of all players involved. It will rarely occur for one player to be better than 2.

I'd gov 15 and 18 for Hawks first and 3rd 2018.

 

[Weiterbot23]

I'd gov 15 and 18 for Hawks first and 3rd 2018.

I just want a future first from someone so I can go for them to lose as a subplot to the season

 

[Malifice]

What strategy would you have for us to hit the draft hard both years and pick up Kelly as well? It just doesn't seem possible.

Trade Gibbs. That nets us a mid 1st plus heavy change. McGovern to WCE, pick 10 to the Crows. Pick 10 and 18 to us for Gibbs and our third (39).

Levi (who is testing the F/A market) will attract offers. If that offer nets us band 3 (a pick at the end of our second rounder at 21 currently) we take it.

I would be talking to the Saints about handing pick 3 and 21 over for 6 and 12. Same value in points (but lets StK draft 3rd best available, at the cost of pushing the pick 12 back a few spots).

From there we'd have picks 6, 10, 12, 18. Im sure we could swing something with that.

With Cripps out, our chances of winning games drops dramatically. We will now end up with #3 or worse. Do we trade that for Kelly or keep it?

Trade it. In a heartbeat. Kelly is odds on to be better than whomever we draft with Pick 3. We could only dream that a player we select at 3 turns out to be as good as him. He's worth that and more.

Without Gibbs in the middle, but Kelly as replacement, and Casboult probably leaving, we should end up with #5-#7 pick next year.

I'd be keen to trade into next years 1st round if possible if the Kelly thing doesnt work out.

 

[Benaly28]

Cripps being injured could be a blessing in disguise.Byrne will come in this week releasing Docherty into the midfield as per yesterday and we can try others through there.Cripps needs to be fit and firing for next year when hopefully we can push for the 8.

 

[Malifice]

Cripps being injured could be a blessing in disguise.Byrne will come in this week releasing Docherty into the midfield as per yesterday and we can try others through there.Cripps needs to be fit and firing for next year when hopefully we can push for the 8.

You really dont get the concept of this whole 'reset' thing or the phrase 'green shoots' do you?

Next year we're still in reset mode. We'll probably need an extra year over and above this as well.

We aint going to magically start being able to kick a winning score next year. We need to be patient.

We also need to be creative this year with no second rounder.

For mine, Gibbs simply has to be traded. His value is high, we have a buyer and we need the extra currency. Boekhoerst might have some traction with the WA clubs looking for a bit of outside leg speed. Casboult possibly to leave as a F/A.

After that, the trade cupboard is pretty bare.

Kruezer would be a solid trade option if we had someone else to replace him. If Casboult walks, we would be stuck with Phillips as our sole ruck. Thats problematic.

 

[Wily trout]

Cripps being injured could be a blessing in disguise.Byrne will come in this week releasing Docherty into the midfield as per yesterday and we can try others through there.Cripps needs to be fit and firing for next year when hopefully we can push for the 8.

Don't know about blessing, but see what you are saying. I'd love to see Doc in the middle more. Seems very composed.

 

[ferrisb]

I just want a future first from someone so I can go for them to lose as a subplot to the season

I want firsts from Collingwood, Essendon*, Richmond, Melbourne, St Kilda, North....

 

[Benaly28]

You really dont get the concept of this whole 'reset' thing or the phrase 'green shoots' do you?

Next year we're still in reset mode. We'll probably need an extra year over and above this as well.

We aint going to magically start being able to kick a winning score next year. We need to be patient.

We also need to be creative this year with no second rounder.

For mine, Gibbs simply has to be traded. His value is high, we have a buyer and we need the extra currency. Boekhoerst might have some traction with the WA clubs looking for a bit of outside leg speed. Casboult possibly to leave as a F/A.

After that, the trade cupboard is pretty bare.

Kruezer would be a solid trade option if we had someone else to replace him. If Casboult walks, we would be stuck with Phillips as our sole ruck. Thats problematic.

No I absolutely do,let's revisit this next year.If we'd beaten Melb,saints,crows we'd be 8-7,completely different look.We are way ahead of the 'reset' and have stars developing not just good players.Agreed we still have holes in the list and also agree with trading Gibbs but there is no way we trade kreuzer and doubt if casboult walks.Time will tell.

 

[DangerousD]

What point are you trying to make?

That if this draft is as bad as everyone keeps saying it is then why didn't we trade our 2017 1st last year?

If it was so bad then there should of been more clubs trading out of it and we should of been one (if it's that bad)

 

[ODNBlue]

It's bad after the first round, not in the first round.

 

[DangerousD]

This time last year, this years draft was being very highly spoken of. The players that were earmarked as the top picks have not improved as hoped, this outlines the danger in trading away current picks for future picks, who knows how these players for next years draft will improve?

I remember last year, Sheik was suggesting we do the complete opposite of what you are suggesting. Trade our 2016 first pick for an extra pick this year because last years draft wasn't looking as good as this years draft at that time (and the fact that none of the top picks were 196cm+). People are talking about next years draft as one of the best but this seems to be said every year.

I 100% agree, the grass always seems to be greener and every year the number 1 pick is the best kid to come through.
The fact SOS has kept the 1st round pick for me shows that the top 10 will still be full of good players.

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

You really dont get the concept of this whole 'reset' thing or the phrase 'green shoots' do you?

Next year we're still in reset mode. We'll probably need an extra year over and above this as well.

We aint going to magically start being able to kick a winning score next year. We need to be patient.

We also need to be creative this year with no second rounder.

For mine, Gibbs simply has to be traded. His value is high, we have a buyer and we need the extra currency. Boekhoerst might have some traction with the WA clubs looking for a bit of outside leg speed. Casboult possibly to leave as a F/A.

After that, the trade cupboard is pretty bare.

Kruezer would be a solid trade option if we had someone else to replace him. If Casboult walks, we would be stuck with Phillips as our sole ruck. Thats problematic.

Boek is worth ZERO
If we loss Gibbs, Kruez and Levi we will be right royally ****ed

 

[Iamcarlton]

Boek is worth ZERO
If we loss Gibbs, Kruez and Levi we will be right royally ******

Agree entirely on Boeky i highly doubt the club will allow us to lose all 3 of those players . No way Kruez is going anywhere so i reckon its 1 of Gibbs or Cas that will go .

 

[ESKIE]

Just need cc to get nominated to ease the crippa news

Done G !

 

[No1Suspect]

I 100% agree, the grass always seems to be greener and every year the number 1 pick is the best kid to come through.
The fact SOS has kept the 1st round pick for me shows that the top 10 will still be full of good players.

Things can change over a year.

Also with Kelly and Hopper out of contract and SOS knowing this and the guys well why give up your greatest asset at the trade table? No guarantee a team would let us trade back into this years draft.

 

[G-TRAIN07]

Done G !

Yay

 

[ShanDog]

No I absolutely do,let's revisit this next year.If we'd beaten Melb,saints,crows we'd be 8-7,completely different look.We are way ahead of the 'reset' and have stars developing not just good players.Agreed we still have holes in the list and also agree with trading Gibbs but there is no way we trade kreuzer and doubt if casboult walks.Time will tell.

Being a couple goals a game away from the top 8 this year really doesn't mean much. We might be ahead of where we expected, but that's mostly due to outstanding football from our senior players. They've collectively played better than we've seen in a long time. Making finals this year or next year will only see us knocked out well before the big dance, and that's the only thing that matters. We still have a way to go.

 

[Chookie]

Don't know about blessing, but see what you are saying. I'd love to see Doc in the middle more. Seems very composed.

Yes, agree that having Cripps out for the rest of the season isn't a blessing but it does free up a spot for Bolton to trial a few different players. Whether or not that's Docherty in the middle I'm not sure. My personal view is that his strengths lie as an outside player and with Cripps out more than ever we need a player that can assist at stoppages.

At the very least it provides a great opportunity for a player to step up. Bolton would be acutely aware that we are some way of challenging for a flag (and the 8) and he definitely has the mindset to give the younger players a go so we might see someone like Polson or Pickett get a run through the middle in Cripps' place. An opportunity like this where someone can get a run of games that wouldn't otherwise been available to him can be invaluable in the long term.

A number of posters on here have mentioned about the age gap between Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer etc and the young brigade coming through, it's obviously something that Bolton and SOS would be well across. I'm of the opinion that over the next couple of years we'll be keeping our picks with the knowledge that at some point we'll have some retirements which will leave some big shoes to fill.

I think the tricky thing for the list management committee is the unpredictable nature of when this happens. Who knows how many more years our senior players will have left? Hopefully they can go on for a long time and taste some success before their careers wind up but it's an impossible thing to guess. Whether they leave in a staggered manner or all at once, I think the option of going for the draft picks sets us up better in the long-term.

 

[Benaly28]

Being a couple goals a game away from the top 8 this year really doesn't mean much. We might be ahead of where we expected, but that's mostly due to outstanding football from our senior players. They've collectively played better than we've seen in a long time. Making finals this year or next year will only see us knocked out well before the big dance, and that's the only thing that matters. We still have a way to go.

Yes agree your obviously referring to murph,Gibbs,krez but don't underestimate what the x5 rising stars along with willo have also done to this team and what they will do in the future.

 

[LordLucifer]

Never in my wildest dreams did I ever envisage that I'd be reading this :

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...r/news-story/f1f176c93c768fc9a49d3b47c102e633

LIAM Jones will sign a two-year heavily incentive-based contract that will reflect his massive upside in coming seasons.

Carlton’s renaissance man has dominated some of the best forwards in the game in the past five weeks since breaking back into the senior side.

Never in my wildest dreams did I ever envisage that I'd be pleased to be reading that too !!




*Link inserted

 

[Iamcarlton]

Being a couple goals a game away from the top 8 this year really doesn't mean much. We might be ahead of where we expected, but that's mostly due to outstanding football from our senior players. They've collectively played better than we've seen in a long time. Making finals this year or next year will only see us knocked out well before the big dance, and that's the only thing that matters. We still have a way to go.

Getting knocked out early is fine by me its all part of the process unless your the bulldogs that came from nowhere but that rarely happens . You need to make finals and get experience at that level to proceed deeper into finals and to GFs . Theres many examples of sides on the end of heartbreak before success follows . Some sides obviously dont taste the ultimate success but pretty sure they are the Carltons of 2007-11 that applies to . We arent of that mindset now . If Bolton and Silvagni arent planning for finals next year id be disappointed . They have their eye firmly planted on the future yes as well as i believe expecting they can be knocking on the door soon . You mentioned our senior players yes they have been great and if there is a little drop off in them next year i fully expect that dropoff if any will be superceded well and truly by the improvement of our youngsters and hopefully a couple of big moves at the trade table .
There should be no limits on what we can achieve in the short term as well as long term the competition just isnt that strong at the top end atm .