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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

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Only a few more weeks of this season left and we start getting into the 'real' stuff.

I don't even know if anything is going to come about, but I know the pre-season will be the best one we'll have.
Some quality recruits, some good draftees, belief amongst the group, some miracles involved (Jones & Thomas)........Can't get better than that. :)
 
Was mentioned on SEN this morning that Daisy looks like he will be offered another contract for next season? Not sure how I feel about this, I don't feel he does enough for us onfield to remain a player, whereas his contribution off field as a coach and player in the VFL would be more beneficial. IMO.

Casboult going as a RFA this year doesn't work in our favour of keeping him as there are a lot of clubs chasing a big forward next season which may work in our favour in compensation (unless the AFL change the rules). Can't see him getting paid less than 550-600K a season if you go off what Vickory and Mayne are getting for playing VFL
 

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Was mentioned on SEN this morning that Daisy looks like he will be offered another contract for next season? Not sure how I feel about this, I don't feel he does enough for us onfield to remain a player, whereas his contribution off field as a coach and player in the VFL would be more beneficial. IMO.

I struggle with the reasoning. He's doing "okay" and provides some finishing quality we lack but I feel he is getting the absolute best out of himself and still having limited impact. Defensively he is poor and he is slow. It his football smarts that are getting him through games. Next year I can really see him falling away.

I would hope Polson Fisher Cuningham SPS Byrne LeBois McKay Kerr Sumner Pickett etc really step and we will also add another 5-6 kids (including a Pick 2 that will most likely play straight away) plus hopefully Kelly Hopper and/or Balic and maybe a few others. If he does play another year surely it must be on the understanding that he may well spend a lot of time in the reserves as the kids must be the priority.
 
Was mentioned on SEN this morning that Daisy looks like he will be offered another contract for next season? Not sure how I feel about this, I don't feel he does enough for us onfield to remain a player, whereas his contribution off field as a coach and player in the VFL would be more beneficial. IMO.

Casboult going as a RFA this year doesn't work in our favour of keeping him as there are a lot of clubs chasing a big forward next season which may work in our favour in compensation (unless the AFL change the rules). Can't see him getting paid less than 550-600K a season if you go off what Vickory and Mayne are getting for playing VFL
Probably the worst comparison you could have used.

If Daisy gets offered another contract, it will be in the vicinity of 300k, and he will gladly take it as no other club would have any interest.

Our Thomas Strategy however should really be to keep him in the reserves, and as a depth midfielder.
 
Just a thought, with Naish looking more and more likely a top 10 selection, perhaps we could trade our 1st to Richmond for their 1st and Geelongs first 1st.
Also agreeing to allow Cas to go to them FA. That way we will have 2 first rounders, potentially 4 if Gibbs leave, and hopefully a second rounder from FA compo.
This would give us more bargaining chips for Kelly, Hopper and Saad.
 
Happy for Daisy to go around again in 2018. Has been pretty reasonable up forward over the past month or so.

In a relatively shallow draft year we've got enough players to move on before we have to go down that path with Dale.

You can tell having the trigger clause removed was a real weight off his shoulders.
 
I would rather we keep Casboult, especially given the fact McKay isn't banging down the door just yet.

I would hate to lose Cas and have Harry line up in Round 1 next year without the protection offered by Levi.

He is actually having a very good season numbers wise. Equal first in the competition for contested marks (38), averaging 7.7 hit outs a game and with 23 goals already to his name.

A valuable structural player who has complemented Kreuzer perfectly this year, I really don't see the need to let him walk for a second-round pick in an apparently questionable draft.
 

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I struggle with the reasoning. He's doing "okay" and provides some finishing quality we lack but I feel he is getting the absolute best out of himself and still having limited impact. Defensively he is poor and he is slow. It his football smarts that are getting him through games. Next year I can really see him falling away.

I would hope Polson Fisher Cuningham SPS Byrne LeBois McKay Kerr Sumner Pickett etc really step and we will also add another 5-6 kids (including a Pick 2 that will most likely play straight away) plus hopefully Kelly Hopper and/or Balic and maybe a few others. If he does play another year surely it must be on the understanding that he may well spend a lot of time in the reserves as the kids must be the priority.
Next years Palmer maybe a couple more games . Like you dont see the point .
 
Just a thought, with Naish looking more and more likely a top 10 selection, perhaps we could trade our 1st to Richmond for their 1st and Geelongs first 1st.
Also agreeing to allow Cas to go to them FA. That way we will have 2 first rounders, potentially 4 if Gibbs leave, and hopefully a second rounder from FA compo.
This would give us more bargaining chips for Kelly, Hopper and Saad.

We don't currently have a 2nd rounder, so if we get a 2nd for Cas in free agency we will sill only have 1. The only way I am comfortable trading Casboult is if McKay can play that ruck/ fwd role, I still have not seen him trialled in the ruck at NB which is odd.

The only way Gibbs will get to Adelaide is if they cough up somewhere in the vicinity of what we were requesting last year. The only way that Adelaide will get a high enough first rounder is if Lever is traded. The only way Carlton will give up Gibbs is if we have Kelly in the bag. We would need to give up plenty for Kelly due to his age v gibbs

So a hypothetical could be:
Lever to WB for Pick 8 and 25
Gibbs to Adelaide for Pick 8 and 35
Kelly to Carlton for Pick 3 and Carlton 1st rounder 2018

We would then head to the draft this year reasonably strong with Pick 8, possibly Pick 22 (Casboult FA), pick 38, pick 56

We would also have a 22 year old Kelly as opposed to a 28 year old Gibbs.

You could build a midfield around Kelly and Cripps for the next 10 years.
 
He is restrcited

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

There is a criteria, based on number of year's service and when they come out of contract
I did some checking and found out that he is apparently an unrestricted free agent based on a flowchart on the aflplayers.com.au website. He would be outside of the top 25% of our TPP and passed the 8 year mark as of March 1st this year.

http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-Free-Agency-Infograhpic.pdf
 
Probably the worst comparison you could have used.

If Daisy gets offered another contract, it will be in the vicinity of 300k, and he will gladly take it as no other club would have any interest.

Our Thomas Strategy however should really be to keep him in the reserves, and as a depth midfielder.

I used Mayne and Vickory as it just goes to show how rare the big marking forwards are and every side wants at least two. Cas isn't perfect but will be in demand. So off a base contract this season he will be looking at probably doubling that next year. He and Charlie are now providing 2 options up forward, if he leaves we will still need another forward option (Rowe?) while Mackay develops. If Mackay was at Hipwoods stage things would be different.
 
I did some checking and found out that he is apparently an unrestricted free agent based on a flowchart on the aflplayers.com.au website. He would be outside of the top 25% of our TPP and passed the 8 year mark as of March 1st this year.

http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-Free-Agency-Infograhpic.pdf

Interesting. I believe because he is coming out of contract, for the first time, once his 8 years have elapsed, he is still restricted. I use this as a quick reference point

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out_of_contract_players
 

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I thought you had to be in the system for 10 yers to be unrestricted. Kreuzer was unrestricted, I think Cas is still a restricted FA. He was picked up in 2009.

He is restrcited

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

There is a criteria, based on number of year's service and when they come out of contract

No, he's unrestricted:

'Players who are not in the top 25 per cent of salaries at their club (that is, in the club’s top nine-10 paid players) are eligible for unrestricted free agency if they have served at least eight years with the club.'

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency
 
No, he's unrestricted:

'Players who are not in the top 25 per cent of salaries at their club (that is, in the club’s top nine-10 paid players) are eligible for unrestricted free agency if they have served at least eight years with the club.'

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

So are you sure he is not in the top 10 paid players at our club?

Top 11 players from last year's B&F. Tuohy not there, doubt Kerridge, Wright and Rowe would be on more than him. So could just sneak in

1st - Sam Docherty (179 votes)
2nd - Kade Simpson (169)
3rd - Patrick Cripps (168)
4th - Bryce Gibbs (149)
5th - Ed Curnow (115)
6th - Matthew Wright, Sam Rowe (114)
8th - Zach Tuohy (91)
9th - Matthew Kreuzer (83)
10th - Sam Kerridge (82)

Having said all that, AFL website has him listed as unrestricted.

That being the case, we have minimal control in retaining him, if he wants to leave
 
So are you sure he is not in the top 10 paid players at our club?

Top 11 players from last year's B&F. Tuohy not there, doubt Kerridge, Wright and Rowe would be on more than him. So could just sneak in

1st - Sam Docherty (179 votes)
2nd - Kade Simpson (169)
3rd - Patrick Cripps (168)
4th - Bryce Gibbs (149)
5th - Ed Curnow (115)
6th - Matthew Wright, Sam Rowe (114)
8th - Zach Tuohy (91)
9th - Matthew Kreuzer (83)
10th - Sam Kerridge (82)

Having said all that, AFL website has him listed as unrestricted.

That being the case, we have minimal control in retaining him, if he wants to leave

The AFL sees all player contracts.

They do the calcs and declare who is restricted and unrestricted based off that.
 
Re free agency


Free agency explained:

Unrestricted free agents can sign a contract with whatever club they choose. They are 'unrestricted' in where they go.

Restricted free agents can also choose to move to a different club of choice, but if their current club matches the contract offer, they must stay at their current club (or enter the PSD or the ND).

How do you become a free agent:

After 8 years at 1 club, you become a free agent. If you are not in the top 25 percent paid players at that club you become an unrestricted free agent (no matching). If you are in the top 25 percent (top 9 or so paid players at the club), you instead become a restricted free agent (club can match).

If you do 10 years at 1 club then you now become an unrestricted F/A regardless of what your club pays you.

Dustin martin and Fyfe have both done 8 years at their clubs (but are in the top 25 percent earners at their clubs) so both are 'restricted' free agents. Richmond and Freo can both match any offers.

Note that Danger was also 'restricted' as he had only done 8 years, and was a top 25 percent paid player at the Crows. If you recall, Adelaide matched Geelongs offer (forcing Geelong to trade to get him).

Casboult has also done 8 years service with us, but he is not one of our 'top 9 paid players' so he is 'unrestricted' and we cannot match the offer and force him to stay. If he chooses to leave, he leaves.

Compensation

All clubs that lose a player to free agency are compensated by the AFL with a draft pick calcuated according to a super secret formula and allocated into 'Bands'. Band 1 gets you a 1st round pick after your own 1st rounder (but you would need to be in the top 5 percent of all paid players to get that compo). Band 2 is at the end of the 1st round (pick 19). Band 3 is after your 2nd round pick. Band 4 is at the end of the second round (pick 37) and so forth.

If you both gain a free agent (for example we snare Martin), and lose a player to free agency (for example Casboult leaves), the compo cancels out (you get no draft picks). This happend to us when we lost Betts to free agency, and also gained Thomas as a free agent in the same year.

Going forward

Finally; this is all about to change thanks to the new AFLPA/ AFL EBA. The AFLPA are looking to bring free agency qualification down to 6 years, and to bring in a rule of 'Once a free agent; always a free agent' so basically after 6 years in the game, players are free to go wherever they want.

The EBA allowed some future flexibiity on the parties to continue to hash out the new F/A rules, so we wont know the 'new' rules till next year (and they wont kick in this year in any event).
 
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