Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Arr0w]

I would be asking the question of St Kilda as to whether they are interested in trading up to Pick 2 or even 1. Their projected picks at this stage look like being around the 7 & 8 mark, a rough draft top 10 at this stage is looking like: Rayner, Dow, Cerra, LDU, Constable, Brander, Coffield, Garner, Stephenson & Brayshaw.

So would we prefer one of Cerra, Dow, Rayner or two of Coffield, Garner, Stephenson, Brayshaw? I would take two players over one in this draft every day of the week. Hopefully SOS agrees and the saints really like a player near the top of the draft order, i'd say Rayner is one who would really appeal to them. It could end up working heavily in our favour.

Not a bad option, if the draft was to be held today, so much more to play out to see how the potential draftees finish the season

Not sure the Saints would be happy to exchange 2 picks in the top 10 for pick 2 alone

 

[El Topo]

If Hopper is our target it will be more important than ever that we're adequately compensated for Levi

 

[HBF]

actually think he has had a pretty good year. can only count on 1 hand the amount of times he has really spudded it up out there. deserves 1 more year at the right price

Agreed.
Amazing how much has changed over the past few months, particularly with Daisy and Jones.

 

[jonob1995]

Agreed.
Amazing how much has changed over the past few months, particularly with Daisy and Jones.

i almost would have chucked Graham in that category too, but i reckon getting himself suspended in the VFL (which is a massive no no) might have kept his name at the edge of the whiteboard for the moment. been ok when he has been in the 1s. gives more than a Boekhorst or Smedts and at times Kerridge

 

[RattAttack]

If we are more confident that Gibbs stays, I can understand why Kelly may not be as high a priority.

I recall someone suggesting we will only target Kelly should Gibbs leave.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Not a bad option, if the draft was to be held today, so much more to play out to see how the potential draftees finish the season

Not sure the Saints would be happy to exchange 2 picks in the top 10 for pick 2 alone

What about if they wanted pick 1 if we finish there and i feel thats a chance and they offer that and something else for Kelly or that alone to GWS reckon the saints might bite if we offered pick 1 to them ?

 

[Arr0w]

What about if they wanted pick 1 if we finish there and i feel thats a chance and they offer that and something else for Kelly or that alone to GWS reckon the saints might bite if we offered pick 1 to them ?

Possibility. Think it would set precedence, can't recall any clubs doing that type of trade before. A possible scenario, if we traded Gibbs, for a late first + pick 1, for say the saints pick 7 + 9, still unlikely

If Saints needed pick 1 for a big trade, we could still benefit. Saints could trade a ready made midfielder + one of their first rounders, for pick 1. But I still see that us unlikely.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I'd like Kelly too but the price (a. what we have to give up b. what we have to pay him) worries me.
I don't care whether another team can claim a win for his signature, but just for the net result.

Would be happy to get Hopper, keep our first picks for this year and next and do some money-balling on mids through trades.

There's no doubt that SOS would be keen on Kelly. I just feel he will probably end up having to walk away. Can you imagine how much North will offer him once the Martin pipe dream is over? Saints will offer shedloads too. He has already shown a willingness to walk away.

 

[Red Bull]

What about if they wanted pick 1 if we finish there and i feel thats a chance and they offer that and something else for Kelly or that alone to GWS reckon the saints might bite if we offered pick 1 to them ?

The Saints have plenty of solid soldiers but desperately need star quality .
We are a very good chance of having pick 1.
Pick 1 could deliver the Saints Kelly or Raynor.
Reckon they might come at a swap of their 2 1st rounders for pick 1 and a massaging of later picks if required to land that genuine star quality player .
Of course we could do with another star quality player ourselves but I'm quietly confident we already have a number of this potential on our list but desperately need to strengthen the volume of good players on our list .
Picks 7 and 8 should achieve this and of course there's nothing to say either of those picks couldn't land a star quality player anyway.
Id seriously consider that deal with the Saints and try to land Hopper with a possible Casboult band 3 FA compo pick .

 

[Iamcarlton]

Possibility. Think it would set precedence, can't recall any clubs doing that type of trade before. A possible scenario, if we traded Gibbs, for a late first + pick 1, for say the saints pick 7 + 9, still unlikely

If Saints needed pick 1 for a big trade, we could still benefit. Saints could trade a ready made midfielder + one of their first rounders, for pick 1. But I still see that us unlikely.

Well we know its been done for pick 2 im with Neadsy83 on this one something we should consider this year .

 

[Arr0w]

Well we know its been done for pick 2 im with Neadsy83 on this one something we should consider this year .

Pick 2 trade was an upgraded deal. No 2 clubs have ever traded that way in the past. IIRC, not to say it couldn't happen.

I agree, everything should be considered

 

[Iamcarlton]

The Saints have plenty of solid soldiers but desperately need star quality .
We are a very good chance of having pick 1.
Pick 1 could deliver the Saints Kelly or Raynor.
Reckon they might come at a swap of their 2 1st rounders for pick 1 and a massaging of later picks if required to land that genuine star quality player .
Of course we could do with another star quality player ourselves but I'm quietly confident we already have a number of this potential on our list but desperately need to strengthen the volume of good players on our list .
Picks 7 and 8 should achieve this and of course there's nothing to say either of those picks couldn't land a star quality player anyway.
Id seriously consider that deal with the Saints and try to land Hopper with a possible Casboult band 3 FA compo pick .

Agree we have some matchwinners on our team already . We just have to wait for them to start ripping games apart (SPS Curnow maybe even Mckay and im going to add Cunningham love his break away speed and finishing skills and of course Cripps . Certainly worth a thought .

 

[Iamcarlton]

Pick 2 trade was an upgraded deal. No 2 clubs have ever traded that way in the past. IIRC, not to say it couldn't happen.

I agree, everything should be considered

Certainly not something id even suggest with our previous recruiters but with fewer assets to work with now besides the obvious Gibbs and Casboult . And no second rounder certainly something worth a look at now with SOS at the helm .

 

[I bleed Blue]

He's a long shot, but I'd keep him on the list.
Needs to get stronger, but is lightning quick for a big guy.

If the right attitude is in place, I'd keep him for another year, at least.

Happy to keep him on the list another couple of years.

My only concern is he is vying for a spot where our list currently runs deepest.

You have probably seen much more of him than me, Harks. Do you think he has the tools to make a career as a ruckman or is he simply too short?

 

[Old navy]

As a for list needs, think SOS should look to add.
1. Midfield depth, in particular a A grade mid with the ability to run and carry the footy elite ball use, basically Josh Kelly.

2. A contested ball winning winner, Cripps desperately needs some support around the clearances, we are currently dead last in the AFL for clearances.
Hooper is the obvious one, but Jelly can more then hold his own in this area.

3. Fire power up forward, Harry and Charlie are a dame good start, but we also need to find other options, we deperatly need another high quality small forward and a medium forward/mid like Rayner or Stephenson would also give us some real flexibility and fire power up forward.
Devon Smith is another option.

4. Should also look at getting a young Ruckman on the list and starting there development for life after Kruz.

 

[Blue__Balls]

If St Kilda were to trade their two firsts to us for Pick 1/2, and use that to land Kelly, then their last two trade periods will be looking very good indeed.

OUT:
2017 - Pick 10 + Pick 68
2018 - Pick 8

IN:
2017 - Pick 23 (Ben Long) + Pick 36 (Josh Battle)
2018 - Josh Kelly

If Kelly is happy to go to St Kilda, and GWS want a top 2 pick, I reckon St Kilda do the deal with us in a heartbeat. Works well for them, works well for us, works well for GWS. And if we can get Pick 9 out of Adelaide for Gibbs (received for Lever) then we're sitting pretty come draft day with picks 7, 8 and 9.

 

[HARKER]

There's no doubt that SOS would be keen on Kelly. I just feel he will probably end up having to walk away. Can you imagine how much North will offer him once the Martin pipe dream is over? Saints will offer shedloads too. He has already shown a willingness to walk away.

I know we're keen on him and that he'd be happy to come to us, but if it comes down to an auction, I feel we'll opt out.
He'll want to come to us above all, in the way Marchbank did, as if it's simply down to money, we won't see him.

 

[Azul]

There's no doubt that SOS would be keen on Kelly. I just feel he will probably end up having to walk away. Can you imagine how much North will offer him once the Martin pipe dream is over? Saints will offer shedloads too. He has already shown a willingness to walk away.

St Kilda would seem the best fit. Riewoldt's retirement aside, they're the best poised to launch into the top 8.

Does Kelly really want to spend the next 2-3 years out of the finals, even if the trajectory once he's 25-30yo is more optimistic?

 

[HBF]

i almost would have chucked Graham in that category too, but i reckon getting himself suspended in the VFL (which is a massive no no) might have kept his name at the edge of the whiteboard for the moment. been ok when he has been in the 1s. gives more than a Boekhorst or Smedts and at times Kerridge

Nicky G is 50/50 for me for 2018.
If I had to make a call, I suspect he may be retained for purely depth purposes.

 

[Red Bull]

If St Kilda were to trade their two firsts to us for Pick 1/2, and use that to land Kelly, then their last two trade periods will be looking very good indeed.

OUT:
2017 - Pick 10 + Pick 68
2018 - Pick 8

IN:
2017 - Pick 23 (Ben Long) + Pick 36 (Josh Battle)
2018 - Josh Kelly

If Kelly is happy to go to St Kilda, and GWS want a top 2 pick, I reckon St Kilda do the deal with us in a heartbeat. Works well for them, works well for us, works well for GWS. And if we can get Pick 9 out of Adelaide for Gibbs (received for Lever) then we're sitting pretty come draft day with picks 7, 8 and 9.

Pick 1 for Saints picks 7 and 8
Gibbs for pick 9
Casboult FA compo pick for Hopper

In : Draft picks 7, 8 and 9 and Hopper

Out : Draft pick 1 , Gibbs , Casboult

The draft followers here can put names to picks 7,8,9 and added to Hopper it looks pretty good to me .

 

[Soapy V]

Pick 1 for Saints picks 7 and 8
Gibbs for pick 9
Casboult FA compo pick for Hopper

In : Draft picks 7, 8 and 9 and Hopper

Out : Draft pick 1 , Gibbs , Casboult

The draft followers here can put names to picks 7,8,9 and added to Hopper it looks pretty good to me .

Sold

 

[ShanDog]

Pick 1 for Saints picks 7 and 8
Gibbs for pick 9
Casboult FA compo pick for Hopper

In : Draft picks 7, 8 and 9 and Hopper

Out : Draft pick 1 , Gibbs , Casboult

The draft followers here can put names to picks 7,8,9 and added to Hopper it looks pretty good to me .

I'd be stoked with that. Not sure GWS would be ok letting Hopper go for the Cas pick if they knew we were going to hold 7,8 and 9 though. I'd want a piece of that action if I were them.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Can see us holding pick 1 or 2. The pick for Gibbs (approx 10) and then somehow sorting a late first or early 2nd for Hopper.

Adding 3 top 10 mids (really) is exactly what we need. Rather than just 1

 

[Blue__Balls]

Pick 1 for Saints picks 7 and 8
Gibbs for pick 9
Casboult FA compo pick for Hopper

In : Draft picks 7, 8 and 9 and Hopper

Out : Draft pick 1 , Gibbs , Casboult

The draft followers here can put names to picks 7,8,9 and added to Hopper it looks pretty good to me .

I'd assume that if Kelly goes, Hopper probably stays at GWS.

Pick 7

Nick Coffield
General defence/inside midfield
190cm/83kg

Pick 8

Jaidyn Stephenson
Outside midfield
189cm/76kg

Pick 9

Andrew Brayshaw
Inside midfield
183cm, 80kg

Pick 20

Lochie O'Brien
Outside midfield
184cm, 75kg

OR

James Worpel
Inside midfield
185cm, 84kg

OR

Darcy Fogarty
Utility
192cm, 88kg

 

[ParapMarkets]

St Kilda would seem the best fit. Riewoldt's retirement aside, they're the best poised to launch into the top 8.

Does Kelly really want to spend the next 2-3 years out of the finals, even if the trajectory once he's 25-30yo is more optimistic?

I've actually thought that he will end up at St Kilda for most of the year. They have quite good depth and a lot of players entering their prime but very little "star quality". Their midfield is very one-paced, when the good teams put time into Jack Steven they struggle big time, they desperately need a Kelly type player (they actually need more than one quality mid imo, but Kelly would be a good start for them). I agree Saints are significantly better placed in terms of finals prospects but North may make him an offer he can't refuse, you can't rule out a ridiculous offer from North.