Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[ParapMarkets]

I actually think Hopper is more of a need for us than Kelly (would absolutely love to have Kelly though).

 

[LordLucifer]

I actually think Hopper is more of a need for us than Kelly (would absolutely love to have Kelly though).

Hopper is our target, Kelly is a smokescreen.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Hopper is our target, Kelly is a smokescreen.

"In my opinion" or "SOS told me"?

 

[The Grover]

I'd assume that if Kelly goes, Hopper probably stays at GWS.

Pick 7

Nick Coffield
General defence/inside midfield
190cm/83kg

Pick 8

Jaidyn Stephenson
Outside midfield
189cm/76kg

Pick 9

Andrew Brayshaw
Inside midfield
183cm, 80kg

Pick 20

Lochie O'Brien
Outside midfield
184cm, 75kg

OR

James Worpel
Inside midfield
185cm, 84kg

OR

Darcy Fogarty
Utility
192cm, 88kg

You beat me to it.

I came up with Coffield, Brayshaw, Stephenson, D.Fogarty in the mix for picks 7,8,9

That's a real nice mix, and don't mind your pick 20 options either.

I'd also be happy to take Hopper for pick 20

2018 - if we still finish bottom 5, we have options galore ( plus B.Silvagni )

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

There's no doubt that SOS would be keen on Kelly. I just feel he will probably end up having to walk away. Can you imagine how much North will offer him once the Martin pipe dream is over? Saints will offer shedloads too. He has already shown a willingness to walk away.

Yeh I can see this happening. Also with Hopper. A club like Essendon and apparently Geelong will be all over him. Every club has money now so I think to get top talent like them you are going to have to pay overs in $. I can see us trading out Gibbs and letting Cas go and hitting the draft.
It would mean we really bottom out next season but we would be able to chase someone like Gaff as a FA next season and Shiel the year after giving us rapid improvement after next year

 

[Red Bull]

I'd be stoked with that. Not sure GWS would be ok letting Hopper go for the Cas pick if they knew we were going to hold 7,8 and 9 though. I'd want a piece of that action if I were them.

If Casboult delivers band 3 FA compo (pick 18)
that's around about the projected value for Hopper even amongst GWS supporters .
If Hopper , out of contract , nominated CFC that would probably get it done with 7,8,9 out of the equation id imagine .

 

[LordLucifer]

Pick 1 for Saints picks 7 and 8
Gibbs for pick 9
Casboult FA compo pick for Hopper

In : Draft picks 7, 8 and 9 and Hopper

Out : Draft pick 1 , Gibbs , Casboult

The draft followers here can put names to picks 7,8,9 and added to Hopper it looks pretty good to me .

How do you get #9 for Gibbs if he goes to Adelaide ??

 

[HARKER]

Hopper is our target, Kelly is a smokescreen.

Kelly isn't a smoke screen.
What would the purpose be, in playing that game?

 

[Red Bull]

How do you get #9 for Gibbs if he goes to Adelaide ??

Let's just call it Melbourne/Collingwood/Footscray 1st rounder traded for Lever ...

 

[LordLucifer]

Let's just call it Melbourne/Collingwood/Footscray 1st rounder traded for Lever ...

Okay, didn't read that bit into it, makes some sense if it panned out that way..

 

[LordLucifer]

Kelly isn't a smoke screen.
What would the purpose be, in playing that game?

According to the media, we are after 25-30 different players, our real targets are in that lot but no-one knows exactly who they are.

 

[DangerousD]

That's why I have zero interest in Lynch. Whoever gets him will have to massively over pay $ wise and any bid will be matched so you will have to trade anyway. He would also be turning 27 the year he played for us.

1. Tom Lynch will be 26 for his whole first season of whoever he goes to.
2. In 2019 we will ready to make a serious push in to the 8 if we secured a FA of his ability
3. If everyone is willing to pay Tom over $1M then it's not overpaying.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Let's just call it Melbourne/Collingwood/Footscray 1st rounder traded for Lever ...

Yep.

Hawthorn's pick (~6-7)
+ St Kilda's pick (~8-9)
+ one pick from Collingwood (~6-8), Melbourne (~8-10), WC (9-11) or WB (11-13) from either the Lever or McGovern trades, on-traded for Gibbs.

Best case = 6 + 7 + 8
Worst case = 7 + 9 + 13

But if it was 13 for Gibbs, I'd be expecting something/someone else coming our way too.

 

[HARKER]

According to the media, we are after 25-30 different players, our real targets are in that lot but no-one knows exactly who they are.

That doesn't go back to your statement, though.
Kelly isn't a smoke-screen and we'd be silly to be playing games with players and their representatives.

 

[DangerousD]

Haha hopper". I think we need to add midfield depth now. Losing Gibbs is stupid anyone who thinks we should is a idiot, we need to start making gains. He is on 500k a year well under his market value and is contracted. Bring Kelly and hopper in go big after lynch. People who say he will be 27 when he plays for us? Perfect age just when we are having a tilt at finals?

Lynch will be 26 when he plays for us, the other guys can't count

 

[DangerousD]

It's the midfield we need to concentrate upcoming trade and draft period.
Next year , if we are able to land one of the King brothers and Ben Silvagni our KPF woes are over, two elite talls at long last, special talents.

So who are you trading out of Charlie and Mckay?

 

[therubbernub]

Every club has money now

Yeah sure, but they also have a bunch of players and their managers with their hands out for the slightly enlarged pie. A good list manager should be cognisant of whats coming down the pipeline in terms of claims on this extra cash, so whilst it might alleviate a short term need for cash, it would be negligent to overpay someone now and ignore the other players next year fro example

 

[LordLucifer]

That doesn't go back to your statement, though.
Kelly isn't a smoke-screen and we'd be silly to be playing games with players and their representatives.

To date, Carlton has never said they are chasing Kelly so it is all sheer speculation. We are not playing any games with anyone, it's only online forums and the media that is beating it up.

In May/June, we said that we would only ever trade a first rounder for elite young talent that fits our rebuild, it was roughly around the same time that it emerged that we were into Hopper.

Since then it has been very quiet.

 

[DangerousD]

Having compensation for FAs (specially for RFA who club didn't match offer for) is so flawed, that the sooner they get rid of it, the better.



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So if Levi leaves us then you don't think we should receive anything?

 

[bigdog43]

If we do manage to get Hopper and keep pick 2 I would almost love to see SOS trade down for St. Kilda's 7 and 8 so that we could take 2 mids. Adding 3 young mids on top of our young talent would have us looking very, very scary in the years to come. Really excited about this off-season.

 

[DangerousD]

Whether it's pick 1 or 2 this year, will not make much difference.
Our first pick might be traded for 2 top 10 picks to give SOS more scope to manoeuvre.
Let's say we trade our first for 2 top 10 picks, Levi's gets us a band 3 and if Gibbs goes to Adelaide.
We then will have potentially,
Pick #5
Pick #7
Pick #18 + player or 2nd or 3rd round pick
Pick #20
Aboviusly a hypothetical scenario, from 1 pick in the first round, no second round pick.
This allows SOS to go after a Kelly, Hopper or even another player and still be active early in the first round end of first and early second depending on what's given up trade wise.

What club would be dumb enough to trade picks 5 and 7 for pick 2?

 

[RudyBlue]

What club would be dumb enough to trade picks 5 and 7 for pick 2?

Any potential trade with the Saints would be more in the ball-park of 2 and Casboult compo (assuming band 3) for the picks.

 

[HARKER]

You'll never get it right when forecasting what your best team may look like from year to year, but if we were to be plugging up gaps, whilst building for the future, something like this may a start point:

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank ________ .....A speedy exit player. Maybe Pickett may be that player.
Pretty happy with that back-line, as it covers quite a bit of ground; Strength, speed, smarts, leadership.

Kreuzer Cripps _____________ .....This is where Kelly makes for perfect sense.
Weitering ________ Williamson .....And this is where someone like Hopper make for perfect sense to support Cripps with the grunt work.
Would be thrilled with that centre-line as it's quality, skills, strength and enough speed to make things work.

CCurnow McKay Petrevski-Seton
JSilvagni ____________ Fisher .....Tom Lynch?
Just about completes our forward line all being well, with Fisher and SPS capable of having stints in the mid-field.

Next: ECurnow, Macreadie, Cuningham, 1st pick in either the '17 or '18 draft, Polson
Future: BSilvagni, LHickmott, Another FA (Shiel?)

Not included here: Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Thomas and Casboult.

With the above group, it's possible to hold that list together for at least 4 years, should form warrant.

 

[HARKER]

To date, Carlton has never said they are chasing Kelly so it is all sheer speculation. We are not playing any games with anyone, it's only online forums and the media that is beating it up.

In May/June, we said that we would only ever trade a first rounder for elite young talent that fits our rebuild, it was roughly around the same time that it emerged that we were into Hopper.

Since then it has been very quiet.

Then there's no smoke-screen.
Sorry, maybe I didn't know what you were getting at.

There have been snippets coming out of the club alluding to the possibility of trading out our first pick for 'elite' young, midfield talent.
Guess it's pretty easy to put one and one together there, but as far as having an interest for Kelly. It is real.

 

[KnobHead]

To date, Carlton has never said they are chasing Kelly so it is all sheer speculation. We are not playing any games with anyone, it's only online forums and the media that is beating it up.

Since then it has been very quiet.

If u don't know we're chasing Kelly, then how do u know we're using him as a smokescreen for Hopper?




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