Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[DangerousD]

I'd like Kelly too but the price (a. what we have to give up b. what we have to pay him) worries me.
I don't care whether another team can claim a win for his signature, but just for the net result.

Would be happy to get Hopper, keep our first picks for this year and next and do some money-balling on mids through trades.

Without knowing the price then it's hard to decide whether he is worth it or not.
$1M a year isn't as much as it used to be and the amount of players getting this money will grow every year.
It's possible that a deal for Kelly will be quite simple, our 1st and Levi compo, or our 1st and next years 2nd. Neither of which are over paying when you consider that pick 20 this year and 20-26 next year don't guarantee you success.

If the buyer however pays $1.3M+ per year then i agree with you

 

[Blue__Balls]

Kreuzer Cripps _____________ .....This is where Kelly makes for perfect sense.
Weitering ________ Williamson .....And this is where someone like Hopper make for perfect sense to support Cripps with the grunt work.
Would be thrilled with that centre-line as it's quality, skills, strength and enough speed to make things work.

Have actually like seeing Weitering used at stoppages a bit - he's got good awareness of players around him and seems pretty composed in traffic.

However, that would have to be one of the slowest midfields going around, and with Kreuzer being an ordinary tap ruck at best we'd be annihilated regularly on the spread whenever the opposition got first use.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

According to the media, we are after 25-30 different players, our real targets are in that lot but no-one knows exactly who they are.

30 player turn over? Sounds about right...

 

[Arr0w]

I'd assume that if Kelly goes, Hopper probably stays at GWS.

Pick 7

Nick Coffield
General defence/inside midfield
190cm/83kg

Pick 8

Jaidyn Stephenson
Outside midfield
189cm/76kg

Pick 9

Andrew Brayshaw
Inside midfield
183cm, 80kg

Pick 20

Lochie O'Brien
Outside midfield
184cm, 75kg

OR

James Worpel
Inside midfield
185cm, 84kg

OR

Darcy Fogarty
Utility
192cm, 88kg

Forgarty will be long gone by pick 20

 

[DangerousD]

9, 17, 2018 first rounder, Casboult compo

so 9+17+4?+20 for Kelly and Hopper?
Considering Hopper would only cost around pick 17, you are prepared to give up 3 top 20 draft picks for 1 guy.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Forgarty will be long gone by pick 20

Possible, bordering on likely.

But Ryan Burton slid to 19 in 2015 based on injury, so there's a chance Fogarty does the same.

 

[Arr0w]

Possible, bordering on likely.

But Ryan Burton slid to 19 in 2015 based on injury, so there's a chance Fogarty does the same.

Burton's injury was akin to a severe car crash, you can't compare that to Fogarty.

Forgarty is a top 10 player that is trying to manipulate the system to remain in Adelaide. If clubs are weary of that, he will be selected with the 1st pick of one of the SA sides

 

[Jeremias]

1) 2017 1st + 2017 3rd to St Kilda for Hawthorn 2017 1st + St Kilda 2017 1st

Assumptions:

Hawthorn finish 11th (pick 8)
St Kilda finish 9th (pick 10)
Carlton finish 17th (picks 2, 38)

2) 2017 Hawthorn 1st + Band 4 compensation pick (Casboult) to GWS for Hopper + GWS 2018 1st

Assumptions:

Hawthorn finish 11th (pick 8)
Band 4 compensation pick = end of 2nd round (pick 37)
GWS win the premiership in 2018

Note: This values Jacob Hopper at 1068 points = pick 16

3) Bryce Gibbs + 2018 3rd to Adelaide for 2017 and 2018 1st round picks

Assumptions:

Carlton finishes 14th in 2018 (pick 41)
Adelaide get knocked out in a prelim in 2017 (pick 15)
Adelaide finish runner-up in 2018 (pick 17)

Note: This values Bryce Gibbs at 1725 points = pick 7
Note (2): Giving a 2018 2nd rather than a 2018 3rd values Bryce Gibbs at 1322 points = pick 12

So after all that we'd then have...

2017
St Kilda 1st
Adelaide 1st
4th
5th

2018
1st
Adelaide 1st
GWS 1st
2nd or 3rd
4th
5th

I have tried to be reasonable in all the above and don't think anything there is too unrealistic.

We've lost Gibbs + Casboult but gained Hopper and now have 5 x 1st round draft picks over the next two drafts, including 3 in a supposedly very strong draft next year.

That's a great position to be in to either invest heavily in top end talent via the draft or have a really strong crack at Kelly/Whitfield/Smith etc. whilst still having plenty of room to pull of minor exchanges (eg. Balic).

Been looking at numbers for too long now so of course my brain may be fried - anyone care to tell me that something looks completely unreasonable?

 

[ShanDog]

If Casboult delivers band 3 FA compo (pick 18)
that's around about the projected value for Hopper even amongst GWS supporters .
If Hopper , out of contract , nominated CFC that would probably get it done with 7,8,9 out of the equation id imagine .

Pick 18 seems reasonable, but putting myself in GWS' shoes, I would push hard to get one of those early picks as part of a swap in order to sweeten the deal, based on the draft not being deep and knowing that Carlton desperately need players like Hopper. Obviously just an opinion on what I think GWS would do and nothing more.

 

[La Dispute]

If we do manage to get Hopper and keep pick 2 I would almost love to see SOS trade down for St. Kilda's 7 and 8 so that we could take 2 mids. Adding 3 young mids on top of our young talent would have us looking very, very scary in the years to come. Really excited about this off-season.

Having a bit of intel into what other clubs are thinking would help considerably. Could realistically get all of Brayshaw, Constable and Hopper, or grab an outside player like Stephenson instead.

Like the look of Higgins too. Nice kick, although I'm not sure where his best position is at this stage. Bit of a tweener

 

[Zlatan]

3 midfielders, 1 pacey half back/winger, small forward and a ruck/forward.

Pick 2(draft), Hopper, Balic, Saad, Matera and Redpath.

This is all I'm expecting in this trade period. Anything more and I'd be stoked.

 

[Red Bull]

Pick 18 seems reasonable, but putting myself in GWS' shoes, I would push hard to get one of those early picks as part of a swap in order to sweeten the deal, based on the draft not being deep and knowing that Carlton desperately need players like Hopper. Obviously just an opinion on what I think GWS would do and nothing more.

The trouble for the Giants is Hopper is out of contract and it gives them little negotiating power once he nominates a desired club .
Silvagni holds the whip hand in any dealings with Adelaide re Gibbs as he is contracted but conversely , Casboult can walk anywhere he likes for any offer and we just cop whatever we cop ... swings and roundabouts

 

[F_therest]

Pick 18 seems reasonable, but putting myself in GWS' shoes, I would push hard to get one of those early picks as part of a swap in order to sweeten the deal, based on the draft not being deep and knowing that Carlton desperately need players like Hopper. Obviously just an opinion on what I think GWS would do and nothing more.

They'll push but I think they'd accept pick 18...former pick 6 who hasn't done a whole lot yet and had injuries.

Imagine we essentially replace casboult with Hopper...that's a great deal.

 

[footyfan098]

Casboult for band 4 (37)

gibbs and 37 for pick 6

pick 2 and 38 to St kilda for 8 and 10

pick 10 and 55 for hopper and GWS 2018 1st and pick in 60s

pick in 60s for Balic/ Anthony Miles


Net result:

out Gibbs, casboult, pick 2, 38, 55
in: Hopper, Balic/Miles, pick 6, pick 8 and GWS 2018 1st

 

[CFC_#17]

Has anybody heard anything in relation to us being interested in Jack Billings?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I just want Kelly. That's all i ask for

 

[Blue__Balls]

Casboult for band 4 (37)

gibbs and 37 for pick 6

pick 2 and 38 to St kilda for 8 and 10

pick 10 and 55 for hopper and GWS 2018 1st and pick in 60s

pick in 60s for Balic/ Anthony Miles


Net result:

out Gibbs, casboult, pick 2, 38, 55
in: Hopper, Balic/Miles, pick 6, pick 8 and GWS 2018 1st

a) Where did pick 6 come from?
b) I'm not sure Adelaide do that deal anyway, seems a very high price to pay for Gibbs given Pick 37 won't be worth shit in this draft.

 

[Azul]

What's the deal on trading first year players? I doubt Adelaide are going to up their offer on last year except to again offer a first plus a player. Poholke, I would consider if we could convince him he's homesick and won't get regular games in 2018.

Gibbs + 4th (pick 56) -> Adelaide
1st (17) + 3rd (54) + Poholke -> Carlton

 

[Aphrodite]

Hopper is our target, Kelly is a smokescreen.

To date, Carlton has never said they are chasing Kelly so it is all sheer speculation. We are not playing any games with anyone, it's only online forums and the media that is beating it up.

In May/June, we said that we would only ever trade a first rounder for elite young talent that fits our rebuild, it was roughly around the same time that it emerged that we were into Hopper.

Since then it has been very quiet.

Can you show me where the Club has publicly stated/said that Hopper is our target!

 

[HARKER]

Have actually like seeing Weitering used at stoppages a bit - he's got good awareness of players around him and seems pretty composed in traffic.

However, that would have to be one of the slowest midfields going around, and with Kreuzer being an ordinary tap ruck at best we'd be annihilated regularly on the spread whenever the opposition got first use.

Getting the midfield right isn't going to happen overnight and Kelly isn't exactly slow.
Remember that we would have SPS, Cuningham, Fisher and Williamson on the outside, and all being well Pickett behind the ball.

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Pick 1 for Saints picks 7 and 8
Gibbs for pick 9
Casboult FA compo pick for Hopper

In : Draft picks 7, 8 and 9 and Hopper

Out : Draft pick 1 , Gibbs , Casboult

The draft followers here can put names to picks 7,8,9 and added to Hopper it looks pretty good to me .

And a PP from the AFL

 

[HARKER]

And a PP from the AFL

We'd get a PP from the AFL. They'd tell us that our request is Piss Poor.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

1. Tom Lynch will be 26 for his whole first season of whoever he goes to.
2. In 2019 we will ready to make a serious push in to the 8 if we secured a FA of his ability
3. If everyone is willing to pay Tom over $1M then it's not overpaying.

1. I said he turns 27 the year we would get him which he will. He will turn 27 in the same month as the Grand Final
2. I don't think we will. We will probably only add two quality players to our side in that time. Lynch and pick 2 this season.
Best case Cas gets us band 3 (unlikely) and we can turn that into something good. Gibbs will be a one in one out which is unlikely to be much of an upgrade. We also wouldn't have a first round pick next season because it would have to be traded for Lynch. We would still have a crap midfield.
3. If he is coming to a bottom 4 side then we would be the highest bidder.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Getting the midfield right isn't going to happen overnight and Kelly isn't exactly slow.
Remember that we would have SPS, Cuningham, Fisher and Williamson on the outside, and all being well Pickett behind the ball.

Yeah, I get that - but Kreuzer + Cripps + Hopper + Weitering is just asking to get murdered by quicker mids. Doesn't matter if Willo and Kelly are lurking around, as soon as the opposition found a metre of space we'd be chasing tail.

I like the idea of rotating Weiters on-ball a few times a game though, just not the idea of using him predominantly in the middle. Needs to be either a defender or a forward for 80% of the game, and mix things up when we need a change.

 

[Blue__Balls]

1. I said he turns 27 the year we would get him which he will. He will turn 27 in the same month as the Grand Final
2. I don't think we will. We will probably only add two quality players to our side in that time. Lynch and pick 2 this season.
Best case Cas gets us band 3 (unlikely) and we can turn that into something good. Gibbs will be a one in one out which is unlikely to be much of an upgrade. We also wouldn't have a first round pick next season because it would have to be traded for Lynch. We would still have a crap midfield.
3. If he is coming to a bottom 4 side then we would be the highest bidder.

Lynch is a free agent, no trade required.

GC will be worse than us next year, so any pick we could offer in a trade would be worse than the FA compo they'd receive.