Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Navara79]

Disagree. Get himself up to GWS and he'd be laughing all the way to a premiership. If he stays at Carlton it'll be touch and go whether he's there when we're contending.

Yes he may get a premiership if he moves to Sydney and I would like to get another first round pick. But he won't go up there.

 

[JustaBattler]

Disagree. Get himself up to GWS and he'd be laughing all the way to a premiership. If he stays at Carlton it'll be touch and go whether he's there when we're contending.

What role do you see Murph playing at GWS?

 

[Navara79]

With Cas apparently already wearing yellow and black and GWS being too tall in the forward line, I wonder if someone like Patton now enters calculations...

With what picks though? He will cost more that what Kelly would. He is contracted.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I think it would be perfectly acceptable(and accepted) that negotiating a new contract after 30 puts the player in a much weaker position, and as such I would think that murphy and the club would be looking for a substantially reduced contract and/or one that is heavily performance based. How often have we seen a star player go from one of the clubs best players, to barely keeping his spot in 3 months- let alone 2-3 years. FWIW I see a change of role next year for Murph - a move to the forward line, which I assume will be enabled by our offseason bolstering of our midfield. Hope I am right.

Certainly would go someways to solving our small forward issues . Wright is about it atm .
And possibly prolong his career a year or 2 .

 

[Juddernaut08]

With Cas apparently already wearing yellow and black and GWS being too tall in the forward line, I wonder if someone like Patton now enters calculations...

lol as if!

I wish but they won't let him go. You're only too tall if you're too slow. You could have 6 Franklins in your forwardline and you'd be fine.

 

[KohPhi]

With what picks though? He will cost more that what Kelly would. He is contracted.

I'm not sure Kelly is leaving tbh. Anyway, just spit balling here, let's say we have pick 1.

Pick 1 and Cas pick for Kelly and Patton

If they sign Kelly, they may need to offload Patton's salary so maybe;

Pick 1 and Cas pick for Hopper, Patton and maybe a Kennedy/Smith.

 

[Wickzki]

If Kade Simpson retires, Bryce Gibbs gets traded,

On Marc Murphy and Carlton, IF...

* Kade Simpson and Simon White retire, and
* Bryce Gibbs gets traded

Then after Matthew Kreuzer the second longest tenured teammate for Murphy will be Ed Curnow who arrived to the club halfway into Marc Murphy's career to date.

The reality is that all of Murphy's closest teammates will have already departed the club. Who is he loyal to? Aside from Matty K there is nobody at the club for Murphy to lose sleep over being loyal to. He's done everything that he can for the club. Has given it 5 years as captain where he has been knocked from pillar to post.

Read what the historically loyal players have had to say about their loyalty to the team's that they've been loyal to. Many have said that they couldn't imagine playing for a different coach. Marc's had 5. Others have said that they couldn't imagine leaving their career long friends behind, Kreuzer's the only one left.

It's an entirely different team and club to the one that Murphy developed and became captain in. It's time for Marc Murphy to be loyal to himself and his family. If that's staying at Carlton then good on him. But if he chose otherwise, you couldn't blame him.

 

[KohPhi]

lol as if!

I wish but they won't let him go. You're only too tall if you're too slow. You could have 6 Franklins in your forwardline and you'd be fine.

They got their free flowing game back and scored well without Patton and Cameron last week. There is a trend at the moment in the AFL for a smaller Forward line. Is a forward line of Cameron, Patton and Lobbe too tall? Better judges than me will make that decision but if it is, then it may shake one of them out.
With pick 1 or 2, there is at least the required picks to begin a conversation.

 

[thylacine60]

If Kade Simpson retires, Bryce Gibbs gets traded,

On Marc Murphy and Carlton, IF...

* Kade Simpson and Simon White retire, and
* Bryce Gibbs gets traded

Then after Matthew Kreuzer the second longest tenured teammate for Murphy will be Ed Curnow who arrived to the club halfway into Marc Murphy's career to date.

The reality is that all of Murphy's closest teammates will have already departed the club. Who is he loyal to? Aside from Matty K there is nobody at the club for Murphy to lose sleep over being loyal to. He's done everything that he can for the club. Has given it 5 years as captain where he has been knocked from pillar to post.

Read what the historically loyal players have had to say about their loyalty to the team's that they've been loyal to. Many have said that they couldn't imagine playing for a different coach. Marc's had 5. Others have said that they couldn't imagine leaving their career long friends behind, Kreuzer's the only one left.

It's an entirely different team and club to the one that Murphy developed and became captain in. It's time for Marc Murphy to be loyal to himself and his family. If that's staying at Carlton then good on him. But if he chose otherwise, you couldn't blame him.

Was waiting with baited breath for loyalty to supporters to get a run but not to be.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

How anyone is having a crack at Murphy after this season is beyond me. Christ we are always dreaming over a leader who leads from the front and we have a captain who has been judged by the coaches as being in the best 5 players out of the 44 on the ground in 14 of 18 matches. This has been done in a bottom two side. How the hell people dismiss that is beyond me. I think people are just too proud to admit what an amazing achievement it is. I would bet no other captain has managed that consistency this season.

 

[Azul]

Murf for the brownlow!

 

[Matty411]

All things considered, Murph is having one of his best years - with the coaches voting a good reflection of this. If he played in a top 4 side, he's be in Brownlow calcuations.

Talk of trading him - our democratically and peer-voted captain for the past 2 years - is nonsense and these are the types of calls that ruin club culture. Don't compare it to the Dogs' Griffen trade for a second as that was relationship-breakdown based.

I think its easy to get carried away at this time of year, using every single player as a pawn where draft picks and potential are king. But look beyond that for a second and think: do we want to be known for the club to cast aside excellent servants for trade currency?

Just my two cents #StandByMurph

EDIT: great insight here - http://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/2017-08-09/murphys-lore-the-story-so-far

 

[curnow4brownlow]

What do you think we would want for our first round pick this year?

 

[Jorge]

Overs.

Possibly, but we're not going to stiff GWS in a deal that nets 2 players like Kelly & Whitfield. SOS has shown he is prepared to give a little extra to get deals done. If we bought in 2 players the equivalent of Kelly & Whitfield using the 3 picks discussed, I would be very happy and it would be a huge boost to our rebuild.

 

[DangerousD]

Kelly and Hopper and (????) = Pick #1, 2018 1st and Levi Compo

Questions is.. what sweetens the deal for us? GWS 2nd round? M. Kennedy? Perryman?

2018 2nd rounder i think.

 

[DangerousD]

What many of us seems to be forgetting is the small matter of GWS letting 2 (or 3) highly rated, young midfielders go at once. After already losing Adams and Treloar in recent years, they won't let this slide - although if SOS has a massive brain fart and gives us what would be 3 x first rounders (no way in hell) then GWS may bite. Just cannot see them letting go of more than 1 of Kelly, Hopper or Whitfield.

They have no say in who goes out of their un-contracted players. Kelly an Hopper are both out of contract and so is Smith. Whitfield however is contracted.
Not sure why people are up in arms about giving 3 top 20 picks away for 2 guns thats a 66.6% success rate.

 

[Jorge]

What do you think we would want for our first round pick this year?

It will either be involved in a trade for Josh Kelly if he decides to come to Carlton, or we will use it to draft a midfielder.
I know absolutely nothing about the draft but from what I can tell 2 kids by the name of Cam Rayner & Luke Davies-Uniacke seem to be the popular choices.

 

[curnow4brownlow]

It will either be involved in a trade for Josh Kelly if he decides to come to Carlton, or we will use it to draft a midfielder.
I know absolutely nothing about the draft but from what I can tell 2 kids by the name of Cam Rayner & Luke Davies-Uniacke seem to be the popular choices.

They seem like the 2 that everyone wants

 

[Wily trout]

I know two first round picks seems overs, I thought the same myself at first, but we would instantly improve the firepower in the midfield with in and under grunt in Kelly/ Hopper. Or in and under grunt and goal kicking midfielders Kelly/Whitfield. I do squirm a little at the thought of no first round picks in 2017/18, but would that sting be lessened if and a big if I know, we received a PP from AFL and Adelaide's first and second for Gibbs. And also a sweetener fron GWS eg third rounder or player.
In Kelly and Hopper/Whitfield Adelaide first 16-18 and Adelaide second 32-34 and PP (19) GWS third rounder
Out Gibbs, Casboult and compo pick, 2017 1st 2018 first
That way we still have strong draft presence this year and let SOS work his magic with his picks.
Or we keep Gibbs, get a PP and still have a reasonably early presence in the 2nd round

 

[Jimmae]

Pick 70 > developing ruckman
Pick 89 > bottom ager
Pick 108 > upgrade Alex Silvagni

B.O.G: SOS

Putting aside that we don't need to make 3 picks, we also don't need to upgrade Silvagni given the rule changes with incoming CBA.

Category A rookies like him will be available for selection all year.

 

[DangerousD]

Different testing format this year, no beep test, but rest assured if he can't muster AFL fitness levels it will show up in the replacement.

Can you elaborate on this? Why has it been replaced and with what?
Thanks in advance.

 

[F_therest]

All things considered, Murph is having one of his best years - with the coaches voting a good reflection of this. If he played in a top 4 side, he's be in Brownlow calcuations.

Talk of trading him - our democratically and peer-voted captain for the past 2 years - is nonsense and these are the types of calls that ruin club culture. Don't compare it to the Dogs' Griffen trade for a second as that was relationship-breakdown based.

I think its easy to get carried away at this time of year, using every single player as a pawn where draft picks and potential are king. But look beyond that for a second and think: do we want to be known for the club to cast aside excellent servants for trade currency?

Just my two cents #StandByMurph

EDIT: great insight here - http://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/2017-08-09/murphys-lore-the-story-so-far

Completely agree.

The other thing is it seems we are about to lose a bunch of senior players.

Gibbs and Casboult good chances to leave end of this year.
Armfield has retired.
Simmo would have one year left max probably.
White could be out this year or next....Rowe as well.
Daisy is a year by year proposition.
Alex Silvagni is new to the club and on the rookie list...plus injury prone unfortunately.

Murphy becomes even more important if those guys leave this year or next...can't dump all the responsibility on Curnow, Cripps and Docherty.

 

[Jimmae]

Can you elaborate on this? Why has it been replaced and with what?
Thanks in advance.

I'm not exactly sure, but it's meant to be a variant of the yoyo test (which is itself a variant of the beep test) that takes on more of an anaerobic (sprint-based) style to it, such that they're removed the repeat sprint testing from the combine.

My guess is that it's an advanced version of the yoyo intermittent recovery test. Here's an article on that:

http://www.topendsports.com/testing/yo-yo-intermittent-levels.htm

 

[DangerousD]

Consider the way the draft value index dives quickly from 1 to 10, then 10 to 20. Such as it tends to be in the talent pool, and in life: there are few exceptional individuals, for a variety of reasons, and in a market of finite resources and budgets the difference they can make sees people clambouring over the top of each other for their services.

As I've said before today, and since this post, Whitfield is not much chop as a #1 pick. I'd be surprised if he ever becomes an All-Australian, and he's not going to change games on his own. Uses the ball well, and doesn't **** up, but rarely breaks the game open, just finishes the team's work well and consistently (1 goal assist a game this season).

Watch him play, and you'll realise he plays like Gibbs, if Gibbs had never shown any contested ability. He was touted highly based on his running ability and ball use, and the hope that he would put size on his frame and win more inside ball. He never did.

Gibbs gets a lot of inside ball.

 

[DangerousD]

If Kade Simpson retires, Bryce Gibbs gets traded,

On Marc Murphy and Carlton, IF...

* Kade Simpson and Simon White retire, and
* Bryce Gibbs gets traded

Then after Matthew Kreuzer the second longest tenured teammate for Murphy will be Ed Curnow who arrived to the club halfway into Marc Murphy's career to date.

The reality is that all of Murphy's closest teammates will have already departed the club. Who is he loyal to? Aside from Matty K there is nobody at the club for Murphy to lose sleep over being loyal to. He's done everything that he can for the club. Has given it 5 years as captain where he has been knocked from pillar to post.

Read what the historically loyal players have had to say about their loyalty to the team's that they've been loyal to. Many have said that they couldn't imagine playing for a different coach. Marc's had 5. Others have said that they couldn't imagine leaving their career long friends behind, Kreuzer's the only one left.

It's an entirely different team and club to the one that Murphy developed and became captain in. It's time for Marc Murphy to be loyal to himself and his family. If that's staying at Carlton then good on him. But if he chose otherwise, you couldn't blame him.

Have a look at Marc and John do 'open mike" together. John seemed to really regret letting himself be pushed out of Fitzroy and talked about wishing he remained a 1 club player. Marc echoed the sentiment and everything was about Carlton the club. I know he can't say much else but it gives an insight in to how his Dad would have raised in thinking about football.