Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Arr0w]

Still a bit to play out. North could win today and beat the Lions, GC only 1% off us. We could still end up with pick 2

If we end up with pick 4 and Kelly nominates us, I am sure SOS and GWS will come to an agreement, as we no longer have the whip hand

Personally I believe Kelly will stay at GWS, taking pick 4 to the draft is not a bad backup option

 

[Bostonian]

Also even though Kelly is just what we need, we would have to give up too much for him - I would prefer to pass and keep building like we have been, its working - we can all see that.

Kelly is something special. If he'd be happy to come to us i'd be confident if we paid up for him we'd get what we invested in him back ten fold.

Trading for a known quantity over an unknown is preferable right now in our build and need for young elite midfield talent.

Having said that if we end up staying put and using the pick i'm sure we'll find a great player.

 

[Cripps17]

Im discussing list management and i think you know where im coming from .
I'll leave it there now as what's done is done .

You're not discussing anything - plenty of good points have been made to counter your concerns, you've offered up nothing of substance.

 

[Red Bull]

You're not discussing anything - plenty of good points have been made to counter your concerns, you've offered up nothing of substance.

My thoughts on what we could have traded for Kelly are pretty clear , as unpopular as they may be .
What would you trade for him now that we have pick 4 ?

 

[JustaBattler]

Silvagni's list management since his return has been superb .
Going to be harder now .

This year was always going to be harder and next year if the side continues to play good football - will be 'harder' again.

I understand where you are coming from re how useful a pick#1 could be - but against this throwing off any hint of 'tanking' and seeing the young kids step up and take control of a game for extended periods is worth more to the Club - than a slightly better chance of getting a Kelly.

Leave all the rumor aside regarding Kelly - it was never a done deal and still isn't either way.

The Club needs to replace Simpson, find a couple of AFL quality mids to play next to Cripps ( assuming Gibbs stays) and also find a decent tall around which the younger kids can continue to develop -especially if Levi leaves. This year we get pick 2-4/ no second rounder as a starting point.

Conscious tanking by a coach - sends the wrong message to the players- it says I think you all aren't good enough for me and I need you to play bad so I can get a bloke in who will fix everything up for me...anyway you look at it- if a Club is trying to build a winning culture - losing on purpose is bad.

 

[Red Bull]

This year was always going to be harder and next year if the side continues to play good football - will be 'harder' again.

I understand where you are coming from re how useful a pick#1 could be - but against this throwing off any hint of 'tanking' and seeing the young kids step up and take control of a game for extended periods is worth more to the Club - than a slightly better chance of getting a Kelly.

Leave all the rumor aside regarding Kelly - it was never a done deal and still isn't either way.

The Club needs to replace Simpson, find a couple of AFL quality mids to play next to Cripps ( assuming Gibbs stays) and also find a decent tall around which the younger kids can continue to develop -especially if Levi leaves. This year we get pick 2-4/ no second rounder as a starting point.

Conscious tanking by a coach - sends the wrong message to the players- it says I think you all aren't good enough for me and I need you to play bad so I can get a bloke in who will fix everything up for me...anyway you look at it- if a Club is trying to build a winning culture - losing on purpose is bad.

Absolutely understand your points JAB .
But there are ways ... and there are ways .
The debate will rage for as long as there is a prize .
Anyways , it is what it is now as they say in modern footy speak .
We've drafted well under the current regime , let's give it another go this year ...

 

[JustaBattler]

Absolutely understand your points JAB .
But there are ways ... and there are ways .
The debate will rage for as long as there is a prize .
Anyways , it is what it is now as they say in modern footy speak .
We've drafted well under the current regime , let's give it another go this year ...

Will be interesting for sure...at least we know there want be any more skinny runt HBFers on the top of the draft/trade priority !

 

[Azul]

Cuningham, Lever -> NM
Pick 1 -> GWS
Gibbs -> Adelaide
Kelly -> Carlton

with a swap of later picks.

Everyone's happy and we keep pick 4.

 

[The Bighouse]

Cuningham, Lever -> NM
Pick 1 -> GWS
Gibbs -> Adelaide
Kelly -> Carlton

with a swap of later picks.

Everyone's happy and we keep pick 4.

Are Cuningham & Lever?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Has Kruezer re-signed yet?
Maybe the club are hoping someone offers a contract that would activate band 1 compo? Doubt it highly though.
Cuningham had very little currency so I can't see us letting him go.
The dream is Casboult gets band 3.
Gibbs I would only want to lose if we don't get Kelly. (Go the longer route)

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Me to!

Pick 4, another quality pick and cash is too much to pay at this stage of a rebuild.

It's basically 3 quality players for Kelly.

That's one way of looking at it and obviously that's the way you've decided to. You're looking at other factors it could impact as well. Except, you've only seemed to list the negative ones.

Let's take a look at the positive factors now:

Kelly is a 22 year old elite gun mid who will help Cripps enormously, not to mention what SPS, Cunners and Fisher can learn from him. So he will add not only as an elite player but experience as well.

This year's draft does not have a great ball user mid. THAT is exactly what we need and that is what Kelly is. So Kelly will fill a need more than anyone we could possibly draft with pick#4.

We do not have to wait a couple of years for him to develop, he will have an instant impact.

So imo, it would be a better move to get him than not to.

 

[Azul]

Are Cuningham & Lever?

Playing for Norf, lol.

But yeah Jake, apparently wants to be a Victorian and Richie is unsigned.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Cuningham, Lever -> NM
Pick 1 -> GWS
Gibbs -> Adelaide
Kelly -> Carlton

with a swap of later picks.

Everyone's happy and we keep pick 4.

I am not entirely happy.

We would lose two midfielders, gain one (elite) midfielder and keep our first pick?

How about instead we get Adelaide's first round pick and one of the first round picks they get for losing Lever or McGovern in exchange for Gibbs?
We then give our first pick (say 4) and Adelaide's first pick (say 15) to GWS for Kelly.
We get Kelly, keep Cuningham, lose Gibbs and trade down to a lower first round pick (say 10).

 

[btdg]

I think we can still target Kelly if we want. The key is getting Kelly, a sublime talent, without torpedoing our capacity to add depth. What killed us in the Judd trade was we gave up 4 strong assets, which left us short on depth.

GWS will ask for 2 x first rounders, on par with what GC got for O'Meara. Let's assume that's the starting point and do it. But, what they have heaps of, and we need, is depth and mid round talent.

I say we try for something like this:
GWS get pick 4, pick 39 and our 2018 first and third (35ish)
We get Kelly, picks 24 and 25, and their 2018 first (likely pick 16-18).

We get a superstar midfielder, plus we can add 3x depth youngsters over the next 2 years. If Casboult goes we potentially get 3x picks in the 20-25 range this year.

Would they do that? Most teams wouldn't give up 24 and 25, but GWS already have bucketloads of depth - for them, it's about topping up with a top 5 talent or two each year + keeping pts for academy players. They don't need 24 and 25 this year cos they only have 1 academy guy, and 37 will get that done. They lose Kelly, top up with a top 5 pick, a pick in the teens, and an academy player and add a top 5 pick next year. I think they say yes, or go close with that.

 

[Azul]

How about instead we get Adelaide's first round pick and one of the first round picks they get for losing Lever or McGovern in exchange for Gibbs?
We then give our first pick (say 4) and Adelaide's first pick (say 15) to GWS for Kelly.
We get Kelly, keep Cuningham, lose Gibbs and trade down to a lower first round pick (say 10).

If you're saying Cuningham is worth more than a 6 pick downgrade, sure. But the most plausible reason for Cuningham being unsigned this late in the season is he wants to play elsewhere and SOS is happy to use him as trade-bait.

I hope that's not true and Cuningham signs on for next year but one wonders why the rest of the kids are on board.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I think we can still target Kelly if we want. The key is getting Kelly, a sublime talent, without torpedoing our capacity to add depth. What killed us in the Judd trade was we gave up 4 strong assets, which left us short on depth.

GWS will ask for 2 x first rounders, on par with what GC got for O'Meara. Let's assume that's the starting point and do it. But, what they have heaps of, and we need, is depth and mid round talent.

I say we try for something like this:
GWS get pick 4, pick 39 and our 2018 first and third (35ish)
We get Kelly, picks 24 and 25, and their 2018 first (likely pick 16-18).

We get a superstar midfielder, plus we can add 3x depth youngsters over the next 2 years. If Casboult goes we potentially get 3x picks in the 20-25 range this year.

Would they do that? Most teams wouldn't give up 24 and 25, but GWS already have bucketloads of depth - for them, it's about topping up with a top 5 talent or two each year + keeping pts for academy players. They don't need 24 and 25 this year cos they only have 1 academy guy, and 37 will get that done. They lose Kelly, top up with a top 5 pick, a pick in the teens, and an academy player and add a top 5 pick next year. I think they say yes, or go close with that.

Don't think you can trade a future first and another future pick. You can trade a future or first OR as many future other picks as you like.

I'd be happy to trade #4 and our future 1st for Kelly alone. Add Balic for our 3rd.

If Gibbs goes throw that at GWS and keep our 2018 pick or give them that pick for Hopper.

Adding Kelly, Hopper and Balic gives us heaps of midfield depth. We will rise quickly.

 

[JustaBattler]

Cuningham, Lever -> NM
Pick 1 -> GWS
Gibbs -> Adelaide
Kelly -> Carlton

with a swap of later picks.

Everyone's happy and we keep pick 4.

How about Gibbs to Adelaide for Lever - full stop. ( If Gibsb want to go and Adelaide still want him - big ifs)
How about IF Kelly nominates Carlton - pick 2-4 and some steak knife argy bargy - full stop.

Really getting quite itchy scratchy feeling about Cuningham not yet signed tbh.

for me I can see everyone loving Kelly in BUT Cuningham is developing really well and Gibbs would be a huge loss now add pick 2-4 to deal and Carlton give up 2 decent - very good mids or better PLUS pick2-4 for one great mid?

It all boils down to Gibbs WANTING to leave AND Kelly NOMINATING Carlton. If Kelly costs the equivalent of 3 potential A grade mids ( Cuningham + pick 2-4) AND GIBBS - that is a HUGE price to pay - and our depth is NOT improved.

Tough equation to swallow - probably means it is a fair deal.

 

[Red Bull]

Assume Cuningham is tight with Silvagni having come through the TAC cup together.
Hard to imagine him wanting out of this developing team .
Perhaps SOS has just asked him to wait on signing as the club might need to front or back load a few contracts depending on our off season acquisitions .
Same case could be made for Kruezer ...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

How about Gibbs to Adelaide for Lever - full stop. ( If Gibsb want to go and Adelaide still want him - big ifs)
How about IF Kelly nominates Carlton - pick 2-4 and some steak knife argy bargy - full stop.

Really getting quite itchy scratchy feeling about Cuningham not yet signed tbh.

for me I can see everyone loving Kelly in BUT Cuningham is developing really well and Gibbs would be a huge loss now add pick 2-4 to deal and Carlton give up 2 decent - very good mids or better PLUS pick2-4 for one great mid?

It all boils down to Gibbs WANTING to leave AND Kelly NOMINATING Carlton. If Kelly costs the equivalent of 3 potential A grade mids ( Cuningham + pick 2-4) AND GIBBS - that is a HUGE price to pay - and our depth is NOT improved.

Tough equation to swallow - probably means it is a fair deal.

He won't cost that much because we won't pay it.

Cunners not yet signed is a worry. I like the way he goes about it, he might not rack up possessions but when he gets it he makes them count and he's an accurate shot at goal, often times kicking a settler for us.

If Gibbs goes, no doubt the pick we get from Adelaide will be involved in the deal. Pick #4 + #10 for Kelly + GWS 2018 1st would be a fair deal and would suit both clubs best imo.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

If you're saying Cuningham is worth more than a 6 pick downgrade, sure. But the most plausible reason for Cuningham being unsigned this late in the season is he wants to play elsewhere and SOS is happy to use him as trade-bait.

I hope that's not true and Cuningham signs on for next year but one wonders why the rest of the kids are on board.

The most plausible reason IMO is negotiations over the length of the contract and the amount.

It's not the downgrade, it is having 1 less Best 22 midfielder.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

He won't cost that much because we won't pay it.

Cunners not yet signed is a worry. I like the way he goes about it, he might not rack up possessions but when he gets it he makes them count and he's an accurate shot at goal, often times kicking a settler for us.

If Gibbs goes, no doubt the pick we get from Adelaide will be involved in the deal. Pick #4 + #10 for Kelly + GWS 2018 1st would be a fair deal and would suit both clubs best imo.

You are relying on Lever being traded for #10 and Crows paying #10 for Gibbs. Would GWS trade Kelly and at best #18 next year for #4 and #10. There is no doubt Kelly is worth more than #1 currently. #4 and #10 alone is probably worth that.

Kelly won't walk because North will nab him. He stayd at GWS or goes to North unless we satisfy GWS.

 

[Red Bull]

If Kelly nominates North and they hold pick 1 , i see that getting it done .

 

[Blue_Fusion]

You are relying on Lever being traded for #10 and Crows paying #10 for Gibbs. Would GWS trade Kelly and at best #18 next year for #4 and #10. There is no doubt Kelly is worth more than #1 currently. #4 and #10 alone is probably worth that.

Kelly won't walk because North will nab him. He stayd at GWS or goes to North unless we satisfy GWS.

Well I think that's more realistic than banking on Cas to get us band 3 compo especially since the Tuggers are not offering Levi what was rumoured to be. He'd need to get a 600k/y offer from another club for band 3. If any team is stupid enough to offer that it's Richmond and they're not doing so.

If the Crows had paid their 2016+2017 1st for Gibbs they'd be red hot flag favourites this year. If they miss out, then they will chase Gibbs hard imo because Adelaide (The city) will be going nuts over why they didn't do it last year. They are football crazy over there and with the microscope fixed only on 2 teams anything that looks like a mistake gets magnified. They will be under a truckload of pressure.

They can't afford to offer Lever what he's asking for and he wants to go home. It will take a top 10 pick to get that trade done you would think. Gibbs for that pick will be a fair trade. Gibbs is still contracted so they will pay what we ask or they won't get him again. Next year will be their last chance after that their window closes and they know it.

If it boiled down to #4+#10 for Kelly only then I could live with that because I don't really rate the ball use skills of the mids in this year's draft. But I'd be asking for their 2018 1st coming back just to see if we can extract it from them. They did give a 2nd back to the Pies so maybe we can get a 2nd rounder back at the very least.

 

[Clarke Healy]

Amazing to think we will likely have six rising star noms this season, 7 over two years, this doesn't include Fisher, Williamson, Mckay or Mcreadie we have found 11 players under 21 in 2 seasons who all look like being long term good AFL footballers some of them stars.

 

[AB_Blue]

What if Kelly stays and GWS still wants to get into the first round and says.....Hopper and Whitfield for pick 4! Would we? Surely we would!