Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Azul]

Going by the "we can't delist 15 players in one epoch" principle, it wouldn't surprise me if old blokes like Alex S, Rowe and White were kept on as insurance but I wouldn't expect any to play more than a handful of games each - Liam has them covered. But as we've seen with Marchy, the 1st-4th year players break down.

(That said, where that leaves Jesse G-M...)

List turnover will focus on the coodabeens rather than the has-beens.

 

[BlueTongue]

As much as I hate to say it, Richmond are in a far better list position than North. North remind me so much of Carlton under Dennis Pagan. Old and make-shift.

Yet they blooded more youngsters this year than us.

 

[DangerousD]

As much, as we would all enjoy the "emotional nourishment" of Murphy, Gibbs and MK being part of a flag at Carlton, I am afraid it just won't happen, especially Murphy.

Unless of course we do a Hawks or Dogs and win one ahead of schedule

Then why are we re-signing Kruz? As a FA he has the most currency. Love him to bits but does anyone think it's strange he hasn't put pen to paper?

 

[DangerousD]

Makes mistakes under pressure

Also creates and kicks goals

 

[DangerousD]

FB: Byrne Jones Plowman
CHB: Gibbs Weitering Marchbank
C: Docherty Cripps Fisher
CHF: Murphy Lynch C.Curnow
FF: Pickett McKay SOSOS
FOL: Kreuz SPS Hopper
INT: Cuningham Williamson Macreadie (2017 pick 4 mid)

Focus on Lynch 2018 F.A. Hopefully Kelly signs 2 years & somehow get Hopper with our 2018 picks. No way that side does not make finals in 2019. There will be a big midfield fish in a couple of years that will be begging to play for the navy through F.A (Kelly?). Keep going to the draft, snag another talent in Hopper the same way as Plowman & Marchbank and attempt to get Lynch for free. That paired with our 2018 1st and the depth of E.Curnow, Kez, Polson, Kerr, Wright, Lamb, Boeky, BSOS, ASOS.

(insert crazy Rick Flair woo's gif)

Way to tall up forward, 4 talls, Murphy who doesn't tackle well and Picket. Not a fan of Lynch unless H doesn't come on

 

[DangerousD]

A few points.

Why aren't we worried that Kruz hasn't re-signed? It has been reported he has been offered a big deal elsewhere.

Why hasn't Cunners re-signed? Does anyone have any reliable intel?

Why trade anything for Balic? He is not signing a new deal at Freo, he won't play anywhere but Vic and we may be the lowest ranked Vic club. Reminds me of the Smith Robinson situation.

 

[Cutz]

Just browsing the Norf board and there is a prevailing view (not isolated) that Dusty to Norf on 1.5 would be a good thing. It's a strange claim. They are 2 years behind us in rebuilding their club, possibly more as I am giving them the benefit of the doubt in knowing where their list is really at. They'll have a bunch of older players retiring, and their 25-30 bracket is sparse when it comes to talent. Essentially they need a proper rebuild and are at least 5-6 years from contending for a flag. Yet some of them seem to think that spending a massive proportion of their cap on one mid is the right thing to do. Very good player, but not worth 1.5. He's worth what Richmond is seemingly prepared to pay him. So paying way overs for a guy who doesn't actually fit the premiership window, and will end up driving out proper young talent they need when that window eventually opens. Madness.

Think their trying to stay relevant. Theres even talk that their going to offer Waite another year, when Waite is exactly the type of player they should be looking at moving on..

Scott appears to be making decisions based on whats best for his W and L record not whats best for that club.

Nathan Buckley has been doing the same.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

A few points.

Why aren't we worried that Kruz hasn't re-signed? It has been reported he has been offered a big deal elsewhere.

Why hasn't Cunners re-signed? Does anyone have any reliable intel?

Why trade anything for Balic? He is not signing a new deal at Freo, he won't play anywhere but Vic and we may be the lowest ranked Vic club. Reminds me of the Smith Robinson situation.

I think we are just going off what Smurph has said

 

[Arr0w]

Then why are we re-signing Kruz? As a FA he has the most currency. Love him to bits but does anyone think it's strange he hasn't put pen to paper?

Many ways you can look at the MK scenario. If we resign him, gives us time to bring in a developing ruckman and or target someone else as a FA in time

If Kruz stays injury free in the next 2 years and his form continues, we do have the option of a trade, (if it suits both parties), that could/would yield just as much value.

While saying that, happy if he remains a 1 club player

 

[F_therest]

Makes mistakes under pressure

Not in his last few games he hasn't.

He's actually dealt with the pressure very well in recent times, usually able to still hit a team-mate before getting tackled.

 

[Funk]

And your opinion on Gibbs is the complete opposite to what the club thinks . Since Gibbs did sign a 5 year contract that still has 2 full years to run and the club dug in over this topic just last year....

Your post makes no sense to me.

When Gibbs signed that contract Carlton did not have a List Management strategy - constant short term thinking was the order of the day.

Now there is a clear long term strategy to have the best possible list for a serious tilt at a flag from 2020-2025.

I'm not sure how anyone can equate the two.

The club only "dug in" last year because Crows offered us a crap deal - not because Carlton was desperate to keep Bryce.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Bugger all odds.

But importantly the Bulldogs didn't change their drafting strategy. They retained a handful of experienced players, but traded most of them out or let them walk as free agents.

It wasn't a case that they traded for Boyd and then all of a sudden they decided to load up for a flag. They just got lucky and pinched one early.

We might get lucky and pinch one early as well. My point above was we shouldn't be changing our drafting strategy (getting in as many talented under 23 year-old kids as we can) simply because we managed to get in two talented under 23 year-old kids in one trade period.



We are on a journey. We will not deviate from the roadmap. Green shoots.

It's bad enough Bolton has to say this every single press conference, I find myself repeating it every second post I make as well.

We are engaged on a total reset of the list. We need to get in kids, then get those kids to 100+ games as soon as possible while avoiding floggings along the way.

We are literally pretty much half way through that reset. We have another one year to go (officially), but more than likely it will be two or three (including free agency and list development post recruitment).

We are retaining an experienced core of players to give the kids something to play around and to stop them from getting flogged every week.

Melbourne made the mistake 10 years ago of gutting their list of experience. It's taken this long for them to recover.

The point is that you don't really have to change your strategy besides keeping Gibbs to try and win a grand final earlier.

Like you were saying earlier we are probably 6 players off winning a premiership with Kruezer, Murphy and Gibbs gone.
Well if we did get Hopper and Kelly this year and then hopefully pick up maybe Gaff next season then those three plus Gibbs, Kruezer and Murphy that gives you six players. I realise the kids won't be at their peak in 2020 but they all will be 21 plus which isn't really that young either. We don't have to give up our future to try to win early it really is just a 50/50 pick which we will get for Gibbs.

 

[slashin_velvet]

One thing I would say for list management and Bryce Gibbs is that you should never give your opponents a free kick. Adelaide with Gibbs would be flag favorites this season IMO, without him, they're one of 3-4 teams in the running. Now with GWS having a lot of talent out of contract and being one of those three teams looking a chance - it would be advantageous for them to win, and then have some of their players leave after they've won a flag.

If Adelaide offered a fair or favorable trade, Gibbs would be playing for them. As the offer wasn't favorable, we've taken the punt of keeping him. The ideal outcome for us is that Adelaide lose to GWS in the Grand Final due to midfield domination (Sloane tagged out, and the Crouches ineffective). We could then shake the GWS tree and land good players who have either won a flag, or been overlooked for the flag team, and Adelaide might offer a favorable trade for Gibbs because they know that they're close to it.

 

[drewmont4]

Lets say we keep gibbs and we just trade for kelly our 1st 17/18 for kelly and a 2nd ?

 

[BlueTongue]

A few points.

Why aren't we worried that Kruz hasn't re-signed? It has been reported he has been offered a big deal elsewhere.

Why hasn't Cunners re-signed? Does anyone have any reliable intel?

Why trade anything for Balic? He is not signing a new deal at Freo, he won't play anywhere but Vic and we may be the lowest ranked Vic club. Reminds me of the Smith Robinson situation.

RE: Re-signings - Not worried yet, Marc Schmurf 3 has said the club values them both highly and they aren't going anywhere - just a matter of agreeing to $$/Length of contract I reckon.

RE: Trading for Balic - would get players off our list and to another club as opposed to delisting - as well as giving us a better chance at landing him (SOS is keen apparently).

 

[BlueTongue]

One thing I would say for list management and Bryce Gibbs is that you should never give your opponents a free kick. Adelaide with Gibbs would be flag favorites this season IMO, without him, they're one of 3-4 teams in the running. Now with GWS having a lot of talent out of contract and being one of those three teams looking a chance - it would be advantageous for them to win, and then have some of their players leave after they've won a flag.

If Adelaide offered a fair or favorable trade, Gibbs would be playing for them. As the offer wasn't favorable, we've taken the punt of keeping him. The ideal outcome for us is that Adelaide lose to GWS in the Grand Final due to midfield domination (Sloane tagged out, and the Crouches ineffective). We could then shake the GWS tree and land good players who have either won a flag, or been overlooked for the flag team, and Adelaide might offer a favorable trade for Gibbs because they know that they're close to it.

It may also backfire as Hawthorn were seen as a go to club with players hoping to be involved in the 'Dynasty'.
Can't think of anyone that wanted to leave actually (apart from Lewis & Mitchell where were given the initial push).

 

[BlueTongue]

Many ways you can look at the MK scenario. If we resign him, gives us time to bring in a developing ruckman and or target someone else as a FA in time

If Kruz stays injury free in the next 2 years and his form continues, we do have the option of a trade, (if it suits both parties), that could/would yield just as much value.

While saying that, happy if he remains a 1 club player

Can't see him leaving as being an overall positive thing (apart from picks). Regardless of if he plays in the next premiership, we would go backwards in Win/Loss & Membership. Heart & Soul of the club, and arguably the best Ruckman in the league at present.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Your post makes no sense to me.

When Gibbs signed that contract Carlton did not have a List Management strategy - constant short term thinking was the order of the day.

Now there is a clear long term strategy to have the best possible list for a serious tilt at a flag from 2020-2025.

I'm not sure how anyone can equate the two.

The club only "dug in" last year because Crows offered us a crap deal - not because Carlton was desperate to keep Bryce.

No worries guess you have inside knowledge on our list management strategy . Re Gibbs i would think no matter the situation the club would prefer Gibbs was a one club player . Of course circumstances can change that . If the club wanted to trade Gibbs they would have found a reasonable outcome for both parties us and Adelaide . Too easy to say it was Adelaides fault . Of course this may not be over yet time will tell .

 

[DangerousD]

RE: Re-signings - Not worried yet, Marc Schmurf 3 has said the club values them both highly and they aren't going anywhere - just a matter of agreeing to $$/Length of contract I reckon.

RE: Trading for Balic - would get players off our list and to another club as opposed to delisting - as well as giving us a better chance at landing him (SOS is keen apparently).

It was mentioned Blaine for Balic. I was meaning that if the club wanted Blaine to stay just get Balic for free. The same as what the Lions did to us when we asked for a pick for Robbo.

I'm keen to land him too

 

[Arr0w]

Can't see him leaving as being an overall positive thing (apart from picks). Regardless of if he plays in the next premiership, we would go backwards in Win/Loss & Membership. Heart & Soul of the club, and arguably the best Ruckman in the league at present.

No doubt, but they are all short term scenarios

As I mentioned, I can see the benefits of both sides

 

[DangerousD]

Might cop a bit of heat for this but I would like to see it.

IF Cas leaves and Nth don't offer Waite a deal I would like to see him back in Blue for a year to help out Charlie and H.

This is only if the club feel fwd support is needed whilst the other 2 develop.

It angers me how through the clubs poor management guys like Waite and Betts were pushed out.

This would align with Bikts wanting to connect to past players.

10-15 games would be ideal and I think he would be more dangerous than Cas.

 

[Moody Blue]

Might cop a bit of heat for this but I would like to see it.

IF Cas leaves and Nth don't offer Waite a deal I would like to see him back in Blue for a year to help out Charlie and H.

This is only if the club feel fwd support is needed whilst the other 2 develop.

It angers me how through the clubs poor management guys like Waite and Betts were pushed out.

This would align with Bikts wanting to connect to past players.

10-15 games would be ideal and I think he would be more dangerous than Cas.

Waite is finished. We should go after Goldstein. They have lost love for him, but he is a good ruckman and can kick goals. Would compliment Kruezer as they are both similar players and we could easily rest one in the forward line. Let's face it Phillips is not going to make it as he has not impact around the ground.
The others may develop but unlikely.

Hopefully Dusty will take North's offer of 1.5 million per season. In three years Norf will be playing out of Tasmania.

 

[BlueTongue]

It was mentioned Blaine for Balic. I was meaning that if the club wanted Blaine to stay just get Balic for free. The same as what the Lions did to us when we asked for a pick for Robbo.

I'm keen to land him too

Yeah I read that also. My point was, Blaine is surplus to our list and won't be in the best 22 going forward. As a native to WA, better to find him a home at Freo and ensure we Secure Balic who wants to return to Vic (and would be looked at by other clubs). Win/Win for Club & Boekhurst

 

[BlueTongue]

Might cop a bit of heat for this but I would like to see it.

IF Cas leaves and Nth don't offer Waite a deal I would like to see him back in Blue for a year to help out Charlie and H.

This is only if the club feel fwd support is needed whilst the other 2 develop.

It angers me how through the clubs poor management guys like Waite and Betts were pushed out.

This would align with Bikts wanting to connect to past players.

10-15 games would be ideal and I think he would be more dangerous than Cas.

HMMMM.... got me thinking... Cas to North?? They are cashed up

 

[Moody Blue]

I personally don't think the big mature body is needed if both H and Curnow are playing, Moore really struggled due to being the only option and a poor game plan. Im starting to believe that Cas being there encourages long kick and hope entries as well.

The way our midfielders deliver the ball to Casboult is a disgrace. Any wonder he is sick of it. Irrespective, he has been with us for 7 years, played 85 games for 91 career goals including 257 behinds and 50 out on the full. Probably time for both parties to move on and start fresh. He may come back and haunt us, but it couldn't be any worse than Eddie, Garland, Jacobs, Laidler and Waite all playing finals at other clubs. Therein lies a warning for the club. We better start climbing the ladder quickly otherwise some of the other youngsters are going to look around and believe that the grass is greener elsewhere.