Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[thylacine60]

Harry Mac is a dud I'm afraid.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

There is simply no way we can or would move on 13 players. Even assuming band two compensation for Kruezer, a first round for Gibbs, a late second for Casboult and a finish of third last, we would wind up with picks in the vicinity of: 3, 16, 19, 33, 39, 57, 75, 93. Those picks past the first round are going to be pushed back due to academy and father son selections and free agency compo. Pick 75 will wind up in the 80s and pick 93 will be pick 100+

That's enough picks to fill just eight list positions (and it's incredibly doubtful that players selected past 50 odd in the 70s or 90s are going to be better than any of the players you have put up for delisting).

We would need to get in another five players via the rookie draft, trading of future draft picks and the pre-season draft.

We will only be delisting around 10 players at an absolute maximum, and that's only if SOS again gets a three for one deal with GWS. Around 8 or 9 is much more likely.

So you are not thinking of any free agents or delisted free agents?

And you are thinking it will take both 2017 and 2018 post-seasons to finish the clean outs?

If we are keeping some of the players for 2018, let's say up to 5, who do you nominate? I say Graham, Kerridge, Casboult, Buckley.

That is, the others go ... Thomas, etc.

 

[HARKER]

Harry Mac is a dud I'm afraid.

Are you being serious? I don't think so but opinions can vary.

The guy is still growing and the club are happy to give him plenty of time to put things together.
Nevertheless, Harry strikes me as someone who may feel worthy of having made his debut by now. Gets frustrated very easily.

 

[thylacine60]

Are you being serious? I don't think so but opinions can vary.

The guy is still growing and the club are happy to give him plenty of time to put things together.
Nevertheless, Harry strikes me as someone who may feel worthy of having made his debut by now. Gets frustrated very easily.

Nup. But I said it about Kennedy and it didn't hinder his development into a gun.

 

[HARKER]

Nup. But I said it about Kennedy and it didn't hinder his development into a gun.

That's funny. I had Bootsma pegged as a star..................gee, that worked out well.

 

[Malifice]

So you are not thinking of any free agents or delisted free agents?

A free agent cancels out the band two compensation we for MK. In other words, remove the pick 19 from those 8 picks.

And you are thinking it will take both 2017 and 2018 post-seasons to finish the clean outs?

Absolutely.

This year the focus should be on youth. In 2018 and 2019 we should be looking to do trades and bringing in free agents to address specific list deficiencies.

If we are keeping some of the players for 2018, let's say up to 5, who do you nominate? I say Graham, Kerridge, Casboult, Buckley.

Levi for sure seeing as Harry's gonna need another couple of years of development. Buckley also, seeing as Kade Simpson is likely to retire over the next year or two. I would also keep hold of Jacksch. Kerridge also.

All of them would be on one year deals, and not for much money. Ditto Dale Thomas.

That brings us down to a more reasonable six delistings plus losing Gibbs and Kruezer (I have no doubt that MK is going to have an excellent year and will attract a massive offer from several clubs, Collingwood and the Dogs being the two most likely suitors). Adelaide should finish close to the top of the ladder, meaning we would only do the Gibbs trade for a 1st+ change. I'll assume a first round pick this year (16) with the change next year.

Assuming a finish of third last that finishes is up with draft picks 3, 16, 19, 40, 58, 76, plus a rookie or two and a pick in the pre-season draft.

The mail is we are looking at several players from GWS again including Hopper. Getting in another three for one deal would enable us to delist another player or two.

 

[thylacine60]

ND furor is gonna be insane this year.

 

[Azul]

Assuming a finish of third last

How do you figure that? After this week we'll be 12th on the ladder and 2 games off the bottom.

#onwards&upwards

 

[Malifice]

How do you figure that? After this week we'll be 12th on the ladder and 2 games off the bottom.

#onwards&upwards

I don't expect either Hawthorn or Sydney to continue being shit.

In all honesty I'm expecting a bottom five finish. I just rounded it out to third last.

 

[Funk]

That's funny. I had Bootsma pegged as a star..................gee, that worked out well.

He was a (digital) star - it was the football that was the problem!!

 

[Funk]

So you are not thinking of any free agents or delisted free agents?

And you are thinking it will take both 2017 and 2018 post-seasons to finish the clean outs?

If we are keeping some of the players for 2018, let's say up to 5, who do you nominate? I say Graham, Kerridge, Casboult, Buckley.

That is, the others go ... Thomas, etc.

We would be foolish to let guys go as FA's and bring FA's in during the same period.

That is Betts/Daisy Thomas all over again.

I would prefer 2017 to be the OUT year - Kreuz etc.

2018 to be the IN year.

 

[ferrisb]

I don't agree that our future first rounder is a "logical starting point" because IMO, trading future picks is fraught with danger.

I only see it as a problem if you are a good team.

If you're a poor team and you trade next year's 2nd rounder... You assume you're trading say pick 21. Worst case scenario and it ends up being pick 19.

Even with a first rounder, you assume you're trading pick 2-3 and if everything goes pear-shaped... you lose one or two spots. Admittedly they are valuable spots. But best case scenario you make 6-8 spots. I think there is bigger upside risk vs downside.

 

[Smegger]

That's funny. I had Bootsma pegged as a star..................gee, that worked out well.

Watson for mine.

 

[ferrisb]

Also, I generally think you're better off trading INTO next year.

If someone really wants an extra pick this year to make a trade happen, that's when you take advantage of them to get value (ala St Kilda / Hawks last year. And that's ignoring hawthorn's poor season. The trade was lopsided because hawthorn was desperate).

 

[Jimmae]

Given people are going around in circles with GWS list talk, here's how I see it going down. Even if you don't agree, it probably makes for a good reference point:

2018 22 with existing players:

FB: Tomlinson Davis Williams
HB: Deledio Corr Shaw
C: Coniglio Shiel Griffen
HF: Taranto Patton Kelly
FF: Greene Cameron Lobb

R: Mumford Ward Scully

Int: Perryman Setterfield Hopper Smith

Positional Depth: Cumming, Finlayson, Haynes, Sproule*, Flynn

Likely re-signed: S.Johnson, Himmelberg, A.Kennedy, Buntine

Gone (senior): D.Simpson, DeBoer

Traded: M.Kennedy, L.Whitfield, N.Wilson, Mohr (if not, re-rookied)

Gone (rookie): Mzungu, Lloyd, Patfull

Current Picks: 1x 1st round, 2x 2nd round (St Kilda & Collingwood), 0x 3rd round, etc

Academy intake: Powell (mid, current value 20-35), Richards (ruck, current value 35-50), ???

Projected max. national draft selections: 5

Projected max. trade targets: 2

Free agent signing chances: unlikely, unless structural need at good value (inside mid, KPD)

Wild card free agent: Josh Kennedy (Sydney) - if the Swans plummet, he might take one for the team and give them band 1 compensation

 

[GapInIkonPark]

A free agent cancels out the band two compensation we for MK. In other words, remove the pick 19 from those 8 picks.



Absolutely.

This year the focus should be on youth. In 2018 and 2019 we should be looking to do trades and bringing in free agents to address specific list deficiencies.



Levi for sure seeing as Harry's gonna need another couple of years of development. Buckley also, seeing as Kade Simpson is likely to retire over the next year or two. I would also keep hold of Jacksch. Kerridge also.

All of them would be on one year deals, and not for much money. Ditto Dale Thomas.

That brings us down to a more reasonable six delistings plus losing Gibbs and Kruezer (I have no doubt that MK is going to have an excellent year and will attract a massive offer from several clubs, Collingwood and the Dogs being the two most likely suitors). Adelaide should finish close to the top of the ladder, meaning we would only do the Gibbs trade for a 1st+ change. I'll assume a first round pick this year (16) with the change next year.

Assuming a finish of third last that finishes is up with draft picks 3, 16, 19, 40, 58, 76, plus a rookie or two and a pick in the pre-season draft.

The mail is we are looking at several players from GWS again including Hopper. Getting in another three for one deal would enable us to delist another player or two.

We have moved on over 10 players in each of the last 2 post-seasons.

First year we had the GWS multi deal plus Wright and Gorringe, and armed with higher draft picks as we traded out the few players we had with any currency, we selected 5 at the Draft.

This year we traded in 4 being Marchbank, Pickett, Smedts and Palmer and selected 6.

Now we could pare it back to 6-8 this year.

But it relies on an assessment if a DFA is better than say retaining Gorringe (ruck) or Buckley.

If we lose Kreuzer, I think it is inevitable we need to land a decent ruckman or try to land a FA to add to the midfield, or a Sam Reid to improve on Casboult.

 

[Malifice]

I would prefer 2017 to be the OUT year - Kreuz etc.

2018 to be the IN year.

Yep, this exactly. This year we are focusing on getting in the 18 to 24-year-olds; 25 at a stretch.

Next year and the year after we will be focusing on free agency to plug gaps. I expect us to have a red hot go at Dylan Shiel at the end of 2019. Hopefully we can find an established key forward free agent over the next two years as well.

Three years of rebuilding and resetting, two years of development and topping up.

 

[Malifice]

If we lose Kreuzer, I think it is inevitable we need to land a decent ruckman or try to land a FA to add to the midfield, or a Sam Reid to improve on Casboult.

If we lose Kruezer to free agency the last thing we want to do is bring in another free agent. Any free agent we bring in would cancel out any compensation we got for losing MK (which is likely to be band one or two).

We have Phillips and at a pinch Gorringe, McKay and Korcheck. They will suffice for 2018 while we look at getting a new Ruckman via free agency next year.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I'm sorry I brought up Harry McKay. He just fit into the conversation about getting back into the draft in a big way.
I don't think we'd move him on either.....no reason to right now....but a big ticket out for an advantage/upgrade, may not be out of the question for SOS.
If it was, McKay & CCurnow would be signed up by now.

We were heavily after Boyd, interested in Patton and by some reports, sniffing around Schache.
Not sure we'd really be wanting three large forces in the forward 50 if we had have/will attain a 200cm KPF. Maybe we would but can't see it.

McKay does seem to have the right amount of aggression and confidence and it will be a good day when he makes his debut......it's always a good day when someone does and we have a few more to do so this year already.

How much is it genuine interest in players at others clubs or media spin relating to these players and Carlton . Im guessing theres a good portion of media spin involved .

 

[Azul]

I don't expect either Hawthorn or Sydney to continue being shit.

Hawthorn play Geelong on Monday and WCE next week. Sydney have GWS, and NM have Freo in Perth.

Not impossible that all three will be staring at 0-5.

 

[Malifice]

Hawthorn play Geelong on Monday and WCE next week. Sydney have GWS, and NM have Freo in Perth.

Not impossible that all three will be staring at 0-5.

I highly doubt either team will be putting the cue in the rack at after round five. Particularly not Hawthorn who aren't exactly playing for a better first round pick position.

You would still anticipate around eight (at least) wins for Sydney and Hawthorn.

We should finish with about five wins.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Given people are going around in circles with GWS list talk, here's how I see it going down. Even if you don't agree, it probably makes for a good reference point:

2018 22 with existing players:

FB: Tomlinson Davis Williams
HB: Deledio Corr Shaw
C: Coniglio Shiel Griffen
HF: Taranto Patton Kelly
FF: Greene Cameron Lobb

R: Mumford Ward Scully

Int: Perryman Setterfield Hopper Smith

Positional Depth: Cumming, Finlayson, Haynes, Sproule*, Flynn

Likely re-signed: S.Johnson, Himmelberg, A.Kennedy, Buntine

Gone (senior): D.Simpson, DeBoer

Traded: M.Kennedy, L.Whitfield, N.Wilson, Mohr (if not, re-rookied)

Gone (rookie): Mzungu, Lloyd, Patfull

Current Picks: 1x 1st round, 2x 2nd round (St Kilda & Collingwood), 0x 3rd round, etc

Academy intake: Powell (mid, current value 20-35), Richards (ruck, current value 35-50), ???

Projected max. national draft selections: 5

Projected max. trade targets: 2

Free agent signing chances: unlikely, unless structural need at good value (inside mid, KPD)

Wild card free agent: Josh Kennedy (Sydney) - if the Swans plummet, he might take one for the team and give them band 1 compensation

Are you suggesting its more likely we could secure Matthew Kennedy/ Lachie Whitfield than Devon Smith/ Jacob Hopper even though Barrass said we are most interested in them. Is your think there is no way GWS let Smith and Hopper go at all?

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Yep, this exactly. This year we are focusing on getting in the 18 to 24-year-olds; 25 at a stretch.

Next year and the year after we will be focusing on free agency to plug gaps. I expect us to have a red hot go at Dylan Shiel at the end of 2019. Hopefully we can find an established key forward free agent over the next two years as well.

Three years of rebuilding and resetting, two years of development and topping up.

I'm still of the opinion we should make an offer to Sam Reid. I believe we need that experienced KPF, especially while McKay develops.

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

You just can't say that. Why not?

Weitering won't be going back on any regular basis.
All being well, we have our CHF for the next x years.

We're still actively searching for a full forward and have yet may have the opportunity to gain one a premium one in the draft.....where would that leave McKay? A mobile ruckman maybe?

Just saying that don't readily dismiss something that may not seem likely, whilst SOS is at the helm.

Seeing something we should be a little concerned about with Harry? Or just spitballing as FtR said?

 

[HBF]

That's funny. I had Bootsma pegged as a star..................gee, that worked out well.

Don't feel bad Harks, i thought the same thing about Boots as well.